This document discusses scenario planning as a strategic planning method. It describes the scenario planning process, which involves defining assumptions and drivers of change, developing initial scenarios, and identifying issues. The document then provides examples of scenarios for the library sector, including the effects of UK withdrawal from the EU or greater power for the European Court. Small groups are asked to develop scenarios focusing on alternative discovery sources, changed librarian roles, or other topics. Finally, the document summarizes scenarios developed in a previous workshop on commercialization of libraries, devolved ownership of services, universal skills, and niche librarians.

1. Preparing for the Future: Technological
Challenges and Beyond
E1: Scenario Planning
Brian Kelly
Independent researcher/consultant at
UK Web Focus Ltd.
Tony Hirst
Senior lecturer at The Open University
Contact Details
Brian Kelly Tony Hirst
Email: ukwebfocus@gmail.com Email: tony.hirst@gmail.com
Twitter: @briankelly Twitter: @psychemedia
Blog: http://ukwebfocus.com/ Blog: http://blog.ouseful.info/
Slides and further information available at
http://ukwebfocus.com/events/ili-2015-preparing-for-the-future/
UK Web Focus Event hashtag: #ili2015fut

2. E: Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning
Scenario planning is:
• A strategic planning method that some organisations
use to make flexible long-term plans.
• An adaptation and generalization of classic methods
used by military intelligence.
Processes:
• Step 1 - decide assumptions/drivers for change
• Step 2 - bring drivers together into a viable framework
• Step 3 - produce initial mini-scenarios
• Step 4 - reduce to two or three scenarios
• Step 5 - write the scenarios
• Step 6 - identify issues arising
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From http://en.wikipedia.org/
wiki/Scenario_planning

3. E: Scenario Planning
Radical Scenarios
Two day planning meeting for Intute (formerly RDN
(Resource Discovery Network) in 2007
External facilitator set group exercise:
“The Martians have landed and taken away Intute’s
servers. You decide to launch a rescue mission.
What aspects of your service are your top priority?”
Suggestions:
• The catalogue records
• The management tools
• The personalisation features
• They can have the technology: the most important
aspect is our community of cataloguers!
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Note the Martians (in the form of money men) did arrive and removed
the Intute servers, offices and staff!)

4. E: Scenario Planning
Examples of Scenarios
Context: effect of changes in Europe to library sector
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Possible
Scenarios
UK leaves EU
Scottish independence
Greater power for
European Court
Withdrawal from
European Court
-ve: Move towards right; less public funding; more links with US
+ve: Rediscovery of British culture
Differential charging
for students
• Greater emphasis on privacy
• Difficulties for US IT companies
• Development of EU alternatives
• Data hosting in EU countries
• Weaker human rights,
privacy & data protection
legislation
• Move towards US-model

5. E: Scenario Planning
Need for Scenarios
Context from NMC Horizon report – two difficult
challenges:
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6. E: Scenario Planning
Scenario Design
In small groups:
• Choose a context:
 Competition from alternative sources of discovery
 Significantly changed roles for librarians
 Your own choice
• Provide a set of bullet points:
 Highlighting possible scenarios
 (Possible implications of scenarios)
 (Ways of spotting signals of scenarios becoming
true)
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GroupExercise

7. E: Scenario Planning
Scenarios From ILI 2013 Workshop
• Possible
scenarios
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Commercialisation Devolved ownership
Everyone’s a
librarian
The niche librarian

8. E: Scenario Planning
Scenario 1: Commercialisation
By 2016:
• Libraries had responded by financial pressures by
making significant use of commercial services
• Companies are now looking to respond to pressure
from shareholders to increase profits
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Scenario 2: Devolution
By 2016:
• Facebook, Amazon, … had alienated users due to
abuse of privacy, failure to pay taxes, …
• There was a move towards small-scale services
which were owned/managed by trusted organisations

9. E: Scenario Planning
Scenario 3: Everyone’s a Librarian
By 2016:
• The majority are now connected using social networks and
are comfortable in using the services
• Skills which previously librarians possessed (cataloging
resources, resource discovery, …) are now held by many
• The role of the dedicated generalist librarian is questioned
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Scenario 4: The Niche Librarian
By 2016:
• We had seen a decline in student numbers in library schools
and the demise of their professional organisation following
significant government cuts
• The professional body asked its few remaining members for
thoughts on the future of the profession

10. E: Scenario Planning
Conclusions
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• People typically don’t envisage the demise of
their organisation or key services
• But organisations and services do fold
(Intute, UKOLN, Netskills, AHDS, …)
• Scenario planning can provide a non-
threatening ways of exploring implications