This document provides a summary and conclusions from a workshop on "Preparing for the Future: Technological Challenges and Beyond". It recaps the workshop which explored tools for thinking differently about the future, used a Delphi process to gather expert opinions, and developed an action brief planning template. It notes limitations in approaches and the importance of acknowledging risks while also learning from past examples. Contact details and additional resources are provided for those interested in further information.

1. Preparing for the Future: Technological
Challenges and Beyond
G: Conclusions
Brian Kelly
Independent researcher/consultant at
UK Web Focus Ltd.
Tony Hirst
Senior lecturer at The Open University
Contact Details
Brian Kelly Tony Hirst
Email: ukwebfocus@gmail.com Email: tony.hirst@gmail.com
Twitter: @briankelly Twitter: @psychemedia
Blog: http://ukwebfocus.com/ Blog: http://blog.ouseful.info/
Slides and further information available at
http://ukwebfocus.com/events/ili-2015-preparing-for-the-future/
UK Web Focus Event hashtag: #ili2015fut

2. G: Conclusions
Contents
• Recap:
 Thinking differently
 Delphi process
 Risk and opportunities framework
 Action brief
 Business case
• Other sources of information
• Your feedback
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3. G: Conclusions
Thinking Differently
Some tools and techniques
• “What did you notice for the first time?”
• Trend analyses (pros and cons)
• How did we get here?
• The history of the world backwards
• “Did you try the library?”
• Listening to experts
• Asking the audience
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Slides available which describe these tools
Recap

4. G: Conclusions
Delphi Process
Open methodology.
Used by:
• NMC Horizon
reports
• Cetis workshops
• …
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Recap
Two page summary

5. G: Conclusions
Risk and Opportunities Framework
Remember:
• There are risks and opportunities
• There are risks in doing nothing (missed opportunities)
• There are risks in continuing to use existing technologies
(remember mainframe computers, dBase, …)
Need to explicitly address risks
Approaches described in “Risks and Opportunities
Framework for Exploiting the Social Web”:
• Summarise risks
• Summary risks of not adopting technology
• Summarise strategies for minimising (or accepting)
risks
• Document biases and prejudices
• Provide evidence base
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Recap

6. G: Conclusions
Action Brief
Action brief planning template:
Convince ______ that by _______ they will
________ which will ________ because _______
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Recap
As described on the Hyperlinked Library MOOC:
Ideas in the form of action briefs can create a starting point for a
new service or plan.
Imagine, for example, that you have been placed in charge of a
new initiative. You must create a planning document for the
team or administrators that will join you on the project. Think of
this document as a roadmap for future meetings/actions to get
the technology or service implemented.

7. G: Conclusions
Making the Case
Remember need:
• To convince managers of reasons for providing
resources to investigate new developments
• To demonstrate that you have appreciated risks
and formulated risk mitigation plans
• To be aware of competing areas which are
seeking resources
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Recap

8. G: Conclusions
Limitations
What are the limitations of
the approach?
• User resistance (e.g.
Google Glass)
• Trends being ‘spun’
• Vested interests
• Perpetuating existing
systems
• Over-emphasis on
technical merits
What else?
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9. G: Conclusions
Warning From The Past
Tim Berners-Lee didn’t
let evidence of the
popularity of Gopher
hinder development of
the Web
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In 1993 Gopher was the
safe bet for an important
technological innovation

10. G: Conclusions
The Serenity Prayer
• The Serenity Prayer
10Serenity Prayer

11. G: Conclusions
Do it For Yourself (1)
Do it for yourself!
• Slides for full-day workshop
available with Creative
Commons licence
• Slides also on Slideshare
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Workshops at ILI 2013 & 2015 conferences:
• http://ukwebfocus.com/events/ili-2015-preparing-for-the-future/
• http://ukwebfocus.com/events/ili-2013-workshop/
Time Title
10.00 A: Introduction
10.15 B1: Exploring Emerging Technologies & Technology-
related Areas
10.30 B2: What Is The Library?
C: Future Technology Detecting Tools & Techniques
11.20 Coffee
11.40 D: Using the NMC Delphi Methodology
12.30 Lunch
14.00 E: Scenario Planning
14:30 F1: Making the Case
15.30 Coffee
16.00 F2: Report back
16.45 G: Review and Conclusions
17.00 Finish

12. G: Conclusions
Do it For Yourself (2)
Do it for yourself!
• Slides, exercises, etc. for half-day workshop available
under a Creative Commons licence
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Half-day workshops at SAOIM 2014 (South Africa) & ELAG 2014 (Bath) conferences:
• http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/saoim-2014-lets-predict-the-future-workshop/
• http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/elag-2014-preparing-for-the-future-workshop/
Also abbreviated version for use in plenary talks:
• http://ukwebfocus.com/events/jibs-2015/
As described
Institutional planning

13. G: Conclusions
Additional Resources
Reports:
• Jisc horizon
scanning reports
• IFLA Trend Reports
(for members)
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c
v

14. G: Conclusions
MOOC for Futurists
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Emerging Future: Technology Issues and
Trends!
https://learn.canvas.net/courses/292

15. G: Conclusions
The Association of Professional
Futurists
See http://apf.org/
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16. G: Conclusions
Questions?
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