Takeshi Kuramochi presented on "Current policy scenario projections of major emitting economies: 2018 update" at the side event "Tracking progress on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)” at COP24 in December 2018

1. EU pavilion side event “Tracking progress on Nationally
Determined Contributions (NDCs)”
Current policy scenario
projections of major emitting
economies: 2018 update
Takeshi Kuramochi, Heleen van Soest, Michel den Elzen
COP24, Katowice, 8 December 2018
1

2. Source: UNEP (2018).
https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018
UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2018:
Trends in global emissions
Global GHG emissions show no signs of
peaking
Global CO2 emissions increased in 2017 to
a record 53.5 GtCO2e, following a three-
year period of stabilization.
Progress of G20 countries:
Collectively overachieve Cancun pledges by
2020
But remain short of achieving unconditional
NDCs for 2030 with existing policies

3. UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2018:
The 2030 emissions gap
Source: UNEP (2018).
https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018

4. Current policy scenario
projections: 2018 update
Funded by DG-CLIMA, ongoing since 2012
Covers 25 countries
Analytical tools used
• NewClimate Institute: largely based on its analyses
for & informed by the Climate Action Tracker
• PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment
Agency: FAIR and TIMER models
• IIASA (land use and forestry): GLOBIOM and G4M
models
Forms an integral part of the UNEP
Emissions Gap Report chapter on countries’
progress
4
This report has been prepared by PBL/NewClimate Institute/IIASA under contract to European Commission,
DG CLIMA (EC service contract N°340201/2017/764007/SER/CLIMA.C1) started in November 2017
Authors: T. Kuramochi, Fekete, H. Luna, L., de
Villafranca Casas, M., Nascimento, L., Hans, F.,
Höhne, N., van Soest, H., den Elzen, M., Esmeijer,
K., Roelfsema, M., Forsell, N., Turkovska, O., Gusti,
M.
https://newclimate.org/2018/12/05/gree
nhouse-gas-mitigation-scenarios-for-
major-emitting-countries-analysis-of-
current-climate-policies-and-mitigation-
commitments-2018-update/

5. Main findings (I): For 2020 pledges, not all
are on track under current policies
No change in ratings from the 2017 report
Some countries on track: weak pledges
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On track with current policies Additional efforts needed
Brazil Australia
China Canada
EU28 Indonesia
India Kazakhstan
Japan Republic of Korea
Mexico South Africa
Russia USA
Thailand
Ukraine

6. Main findings (II): For (I)NDCs, about
two-thirds of the countries still not on track
On track
with
current
policies
On track
with
current
policies,
but
increasing
emissions
2010-30
Uncertain Additional
efforts
needed,
but
decreasing
emissions
Additional
efforts
needed,
emissions at
roughly 2010
level
Additional efforts needed,
and increasing emissions
Colombia China EU Japan Canada Australia Morocco
Russia India Mexico Brazil Argentina Philippines
Ukraine Turkey United States Chile Republic of
Korea
Saudi
Arabia
DRC Saudi
Arabia
Ethiopia South Africa
Indonesia Thailand
Kazakhstan
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Countries in red: rating changed from the 2017 report

7. Main findings (II): For (I)NDCs, about
two-thirds of the countries still not on track
Country Meeting NDC with
current policies?
Reasons for the changed rating
Brazil Yes  No Revised GHG inventory for the LULUCF sector
EU No  Uncertain Implementation of the 2030 EU ETS target & Effort
Sharing Regulation
Different modelling assumptions between PBL and
NewClimate
Mexico Yes  Uncertain Revised 2030 electricity mix projection
• Lower nuclear power share (from ~10% to ~6%)
Japan Yes  No Revised nuclear power deployment (by PBL)
• From 58 GW to 22 GW in 2030
Revised projection of HFC emissions
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8. Main findings (III): Limited progress of major
emitting economies vs. 2015 analysis
Only 6 of 13 countries compared show lower projections for 2030
 Needs more research to say whether policies had impact
Some countries: actual emissions growth lower than projected
Major LULUCF emitters: large impact of revised inventories
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Comparing 2030 projections based on change rates vs. 2010 levels
(only one way of comparing progress…)
Achieving NDC
On track Additional efforts needed
2030
projections
(vs. 2010
levels):
change from
2015 report
(den Elzen et al.,
2015)
Lower China
Turkey
Australia
Canada
USA
Similar India
Russia
Japan
Higher Brazil
Indonesia
South Korea
EU28
Mexico

9. Contact details:
Thank you for your attention!
www.newclimate.org
Takeshi Kuramochi
t.kuramochi@newclimate.org