On September 23, world leaders will convene in New York for the 2019 UN Climate Action Summit. In line with the goals of the Paris Agreement and the IPCC special report on the impacts of a global warming of 1.5 °C, one of the key objectives of the summit is to secure political will leading to ambitious 2020 commitments, as well as long-term strategies with concrete steps and interim targets towards achieving net zero emissions by 2050. Learn more: https://www.wri.org/events/2019/08/webinar-long-term-climate-strategies-and-un-climate

1. LONG-TERM CLIMATE STRATEGIES
UNDER THE PARIS AGREEMENT
2019 WEBINAR SERIES
LONG-TERM STRATEGIES AND THE
U.N. CLIMATE SUMMIT
August 7, 2019 9:00am EDT (13:00 GMT)

2. Long-Term Strategies and the U.N. Climate Action Summit
AGENDA
• Welcome (5 mins)
– Pankaj Bhatia, World Resources Institute
• Scene setting and country experiences on LTS (10 mins)
– Richard Baron, 2050 Pathways Platform
• Chile’s long-term planning process and road to COP25 (10 mins)
– Jenny Mager Santos, Ministry of Environment, Chile
• UK’s Clean Growth Strategy and net-zero emissions goal (10 mins)
– Tony Ripley, UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy
• Moderated Q&A (15 mins)
• Conclusion (7 mins)
– James Vener, United Nations Development Programme

3. Long-Term Strategies and the U.N. Climate Action Summit
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4. 2050 PATHWAYS PLATFORM - PRESENTATION 4
STATE OF PLAY OF LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSIONS DEVELOPMENT
STRATEGIES
Richard Baron
Executive Director - 2050 Pathways Platform
7 August, 2019

5. Long-term pathways – from long-term ambition to
near-term changes
Business-as-usual
NDC1
Long-term low-carbon pathway
Back-casting emissions
GHGEMISSIONS
TIME
In accordance with Art. 4.1
of the Paris Agreement
2030 2040 2050
NDC2

6. 2050 PATHWAYS PLATFORM - PRESENTATION 6
Long-term Strategies: State of PlayLong-term strategies: Global state of play

7. Process for a robust
long-term pathway
07/08/2019 7

8. EXPLORATION
Model-based exploration
of long-term outcomes
+ Contribution of various technologies
to low-carbon
+ Alternative choices on
land-use
+ Different global scenarios
+ Initiate domestic discussion
US, Can, Mex, Cz, Ukr, (EU)
VISION & PATHWAY
Back-casting from
a long-term “vision”
+ Starts from a quantified objective
(e.g. ‘carbon neutrality’ by year X)
+ Explores sectoral
strategies / roadmaps
+ Builds a low-carbon emission and
growth trajectory
Fiji, France, RMI
DECLARATION OF INTENT
Multi-stakeholder and
sectoral consultations
+ Lays out existing policies
+ Identify sectoral challenges and
opportunities
+ A manifesto that opens a discussion
domestically
Germany, UK, Japan
2050 PATHWAYS PLATFORM - PRESENTATION 8
Typology of long-term strategies (LTS)
- focus on mitigation -

9. Ideally, a long-term low-emission development
strategy will…
07/08/2019 2050 PATHWAYS PLATFORM - PRESENTATION 9
• Answer the question: how will the decarbonisation and climate-resilience agenda support
socio-economic development ?
• Avoid incrementalism, i.e. adopt a back-casting approach
• Be an inclusive, deliberative process (central and local gov’t, business, civil society)
• Expose trade-offs and problems to be resolved, as well as co-benefits and opportunities,
and major uncertainties
• Set a process in motion: include a periodic review
• Link back to near-term policy, infrastructure choices, and broader reforms for ‘alignment’
of climate protection and development

10. 07/08/2019 2050 PATHWAYS PLATFORM - PRESENTATION 10
“Having a good plan is not a sufficient condition for success.
But not having one is always a recipe for failure”
F. Bainimarama, Prime Minister of Fiji

11. Chile’s long-term planning process and road
to COP25
Jenny Mager Santos
Mitigation and inventories area
Climate Change Office
07 de Agosto de 2019

12. Chile is a vulnerable country
Based on future climate scenarios,
the following impacts are
expected:
• Temperature increases between
2°C and 4°C throughout the
country at the end of the
century.
• 5-20% decrease in rainfall in the
Central Zone and 10-15%
increase in rainfall in the
Southern Zone
• Melting of glaciers and reduction
of the Andean area to store
snow.
• Sea level rise between 20-30cm

13. Chile’s National inventory, Time series 1990-2016
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
ktCO2eq
1. Energía 2. IPPU 3. Agricultura 5. Residuos 4. UTCUTS Balance
• In 2016, total emissions
reach: 111.677 kt
CO2eq.
• Energy sector, Main
emitter (78 % of total
emissions).
• Forestry sector is a sink
(-65.492 kt CO2eq).
• GHG balance reach
46.185 kt CO2eq.

14. Status of current NDC: Emission intensity
0.72 0.67
1.03
0.57
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
Esc Actual INGEI
by 2025 Chile will
reach 30% of
by 2030 Chile will
reach 35% of
reduction w/r
2007
However…
“INDC 2015: Chile is committed to reduce its CO2 emissions per GDP unit
by 30% below their 2007 levels by 2030”

15. Status of current NDC: Total emissions
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
NI Current scenario 45%
at 2025, emissions
increase by 21% w/r
2007
at 2030, emissions
increase by 30% w/r
2007
Reducing Carbon
intensity by 45%
means that
emission could still
growth by 10% w/r
2007

16. Long-term Vision: GHG emissions Neutrality
• Chile´s Announced its
intention to become carbon
neutral by 2050
• In june the Government
launched its plan for Coal
Phase-out by 2040
• This goal has been added in
the proyect of the new
Climate change law

17. Why NDCs need to be updated?
Decision 1/CP.21 request parties' whose NDC contains “a
time frame up to 2030” to communicate or update their
NDC by 2020.
Strong UN call for increased ambition of mitigation
commitments (mainly based on the result of IPCC
Special Report 1.5°C )
Chile will chair and host COP25 (December 2019), an
event in which it will announce its update.
4 years have passed since the NDC, with important
advances (sharp fall in prices ERNC, electromobility,
Coal phase out announcement, CO2 tax)
1

18. Zero net emissions
Peak
Zero
Negative
emissions
18Fuente: IPCC SR1,5
IPCC SR1.5°C: emission pathways
We must have a clear vision
where to arrive (ambitious
goal), but not lose sight or
neglect the path that leads
us there.

19. Long Term Climate
Strategies are the tools to
align NDCs with the
objectives set in Paris.
2

20. Benefits of an LTS for Chile
• Alignment of short- and medium-term planning
with a long-term country vision. Considering
the particular situation in terms of risks and
opportunities posed by a change in climate
conditions.
• To better define and plan compliance with
international commitments on climate change,
incorporating the continuous process of
reviewing and updating Chile's Nationally
Determined Contribution (NDC) as part of the
processes contained in the strategy.

21. Benefits of an LTS for Chile
• It allows governments to give a clear signal
to the private sector, avoiding investments
which are inconsistent with the national
vision of sustainable growth. In general, the
private sector will respond accordingly if
the country clearly defines the route it
wants to take to development.
• Helps align national and sub-national
policies and targets, supporting sectoral
and local development planning.

22. LTS – Structure
Long-Term Vision
– Carbon Neutrality 2050
– NDC aligned to Carbon Neutrality
Climate Change Mitigation
– Emissions targets and scenarios for
2050
– Sectoral Pathways
– Long-term vision for each sector and
direction of the most relevant
associated policies and measures (at
least Power generation, Transport,
Industry and LULUCF).
Adaptation to Climate Change
– Long-term adaptation goal
Implementation Approach
— Carbon Budgets (Similar to the UK
system)
— NDC update
— Sectoral Mitigation and adaptation
Plans.
Monitoring and Revision
— Review every 10 years
— Alignment to NDCs review process

23. LTS – Other relevant elements
Climate Change Law
• Technology Transfer and
Development
• Capacity Building
• Climate Finance
Regional Policies
Integration
Climate
Governance
Black
Carbon

24. What are we doing today?
Forecasting Models
Construction of sectorial models according to the structure of the National
Inventory of GHG Emissions.
► Energy (Ministry of Energy).
► IPPU.
► Agriculture.
► Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF).
► Waste.
Development of long-term scenarios based on the country's carbon neutral
vision.
NDC Revision
It is an important part of the long-term strategy and marks the first milestone
of the carbon neutral trajectory.
Work Plan
Elaboration of a Work Plan for the development of the strategy, including a
participatory process, identification of relevant actors and alignment with
sector policies.

25. Challenges
• In order to achieve a long-term
strategy that is valid over time, the
active participation of all sectors of
society is required.
• It must be linked to existing policies
to facilitate the implementation of
actions.
• Processes that allow the necessary
evaluation and adjustments to
achieve the objectives defined in the
strategy must be defined.
• There must be a clear definition of
roles, in order to develop the
necessary elements to meet the
objectives.

27. The benefits of Long Term Strategies,
the UK’s Clean Growth Strategy and its
net-zero emissions goal
Tony Ripley, Head of UNFCCC Ambition, UK Department for Business,
Energy and Industrial Strategy

28. UK Climate Change Act, 2008
• Contains:
• Target for 80 per cent reduction in GHG emissions on 1990 levels by 2050 (recently
amended to 100 per cent)
• 5 yearly carbon budgets
• Climate Change Committee to set out independent advice on the carbon budgets
and to review our plans and systems including through annual progress reports
• Requirement to carry out climate change risk assessments and publish adaptation
plans
• Requirement to set out long term strategy
• Model has been copied by other countries such as Mexico, Sweden, France,
and New Zealand

29. UK Long Term Strategies
Published 2009
CBs 1-3
(2008-22)
Published 2011
CB 4
(2023-27)
Published 2017
CB 5
(2028-32)
Clean Growth Strategy
Submitted to the UNFCCC in April 2018.
The Clean Growth Strategy outlines in detail our
action up to 2032, in line with our Carbon Budgets,
and highlights possible pathways to our 2050
target:
1. The Electricity pathway
2. The Hydrogen pathway
3. The Emissions Removal pathway

38. Benefits from pursuing net zero
Low carbon economy
• 430,000 UK jobs in low carbon businesses and their supply chains in 2017 and growing.
• We have world-leading capabilities in areas including offshore wind, smart energy systems, sustainable construction, precision agriculture,
green finance and electric vehicle manufacture.
• Turnover of £79.6bn in the low carbon and renewable energy economy in 2017 - with growth of 7% outpacing GDP
• Exports from UK low carbon and renewable energy sector were £5 bn in 2017
• The Government is investing £2.5 billion into clean growth innovation by 2021 as set out in the Industrial Strategy
Low carbon and renewable energy
• The UK has the largest installed offshore wind capacity in the world - 36% of the global capacity (8.2GW) – with plans to rise to rise to
14GW by 2023
• 1 in 5 battery electric cars sold in Europe in 2018 were built in the UK - in 2017 exports from low emission vehicles and infrastructure were
worth £2.77 bn
Global opportunities from clean growth
• $11.5 trillion investment is expected in new power generation assets over the 32 years to 2050. Of this, 86% goes to zero-emissions
technologies of which 73% ($8.4 trillion) on wind and solar.
• By one estimate, the UK low carbon economy could grow 4 x faster than the rest of the economy 2015 - 2030
• Potential for low carbon exports by 2030 of £60 - £170 million supporting 2 million jobs
• Offshore wind sector to triple highly-skilled jobs to 27,000 by 2030
• London a leader in green finance, and global centre of carbon trading. More than 95 green bonds listed on the London Stock Exchange,
raising over $26bn across seven currencies.

39. UK Political Climate

40. Support to Others

41. UNFCCC gaps
• LTSs invited not required
• Link to domestic delivery less clear than for NDCs
• Fixed at mid-century
• No regular review mechanism
• No requirement for peaking / net zero CO₂ / net zero GHG targets
• No accounting and reporting
• No synthesis report of submitted LTSs.
• Unclear how they will feed in to the Global Stocktake

42. Thank You!
tony.ripley@beis.gov.uk

43. Long-Term Strategies and the U.N. Climate Action Summit
MODERATED Q&A
If you experience technical problems during the webinar,
please email Mary Levine: Mary.Levine@wri.org

44. Long-Term Strategies and the U.N. Climate Action Summit
CONCLUSION
James Vener
United Nations Development Programme

45. Long-Term Strategies and the U.N. Climate Action Summit
LONG-TERM CLIMATE STRATEGIES
UNDER THE PARIS AGREEMENT
2019 WEBINAR SERIES
THANK YOU!
For more information, please visit the Long-Term Climate Strategies website:
https://www.wri.org/climate/long-term-strategies
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For questions on the webinar series, please contact:
Mary Levine, World Resources Institute (Mary.Levine@wri.org)