NDC Implementation – bridging the gap from climate change policy to sector approaches - COP 23
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Frauke Röser from NewClimate Insitute presented at GIZ headquarters during COP 23.The event discussed NDC implementation by focusing on one of the main challenges: Alignment and coherence of sector policies and approaches with the national climate target and climate policies.
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NDC Implementation – bridging the gap from climate change policy to sector approaches - COP 23
- 1. COP23 Side Event, GIZ Headquarter Bonn Frauke Roeser 13 November 2017 NDC Implementation – bridging the gap from climate change policy to sector plans
- 2. Framing questions Where do we stand globally on 2°C? What has been NDC progress to date? How fit are the sectors to implement the ambition cycle? What needs to be happen in the sectors? 13 November 2017 www.newclimate.org 2
- 3. Global assessment 13 November 2017 www.newclimate.org 3 Global emissions and temperature update Wed, 15 Nov, 12:30 press conference at COP23 Source: Climate Action Tracker
- 4. Individual country ratings 13 November 2017 www.newclimate.org 4
- 5. NDC Update Report Biannual reports ahead of COP and Bonn sessions Under IKI funded “Ambition to Action” project in cooperation with ECN Focus on mitigation ambition and progress “on the ground” “Are we making progress domestically?” How can this best be supported? Platform for learning, sharing insights and discussion 13 November 2017 www.newclimate.org 5
- 6. NDC Survey Respondents from 52 developing countries /emerging economies National level and sector level experts and practitioners Perceived progress and confidence on several NDC related issues Overall: continued confidence and optimism regarding NDC implementation progress National level: confident and optimistic Sector level: more critical and reserved 13 November 2017 www.newclimate.org 6
- 7. Sector alignment of NDCs National level: 55% believe country is making very good/ good progress on aligning sector development plans with NDCs Sector level experts less confident – majority identify sector alignment as key challenge Support Access to finance thought to be a big challenge in particular at sectoral level (63% compared to 48% at national level ) When international funds are secured for domestic NDC implementation, they do not seem to be effectively tailored to countries’ needs (only 17% say they are) 67% believe that technical support received is not adequate 13 November 2017 www.newclimate.org 7
- 8. NDC and transformation fitness Existing assessments of NDCs tend to focus on analysis of countries’ targets and self- reported emissions and policy data No information about the likelihood that a country or sector will be able to achieve its targets 8 Room for a new complementary diagnosis to assess ’fitness’ to achieve NDC targets and/ or sector decarbonisation
- 9. Conclusions NDC cycle needs to be sector driven Confidence on NDC implementation but what about the ambition cycle? There seems to be a misalignment of climate policy ambitions and sector planning/ action Need to achieve sector ownership and policy coherence Better understanding and evidence regarding impacts of different pathways needed 13 November 2017 www.newclimate.org 9
- 10. Short-term steps to peak and start the emissions decline 13 November 2017 www.newclimate.org 10
- 11. Thank you for your attention! Contact details: Frauke Roeser M +49 (0)151 68409310 E f.roeser@newclimate.org
- 12. NDC compatibility with Paris 13 November 2017 www.newclimate.org 12
- 13. Long-term strategies Confusion about long-term strategies 35% believe they have already adopted long-term low emission development strategies and/ or included them in policy or national legislation 13
- 14. CAT also does analysis on how the gap can be filled www.climateactiontracker.org Zero emission vehicles need to take over car market Constructing the future: creating a Paris Agreement-proof building sector China light duty vehicle emissions (MtCO2e/year) Per capita building sector emissions (tCO2/capita)
Editor's Notes
- Other activities of the Climate Action Tracker explain how the emissions gap can be filled For example, through the decarbonisation memo series funded by the ClimateWorks Foundation, the CAT is producing a series of concise 4-page memos focusing on sectoral decarbonisation We produced one of these for transport and one for buildings, for example, where for both sectors we tried to answer the question: For this sector, where does the world need to be for 1.5C/2C and what can we concretely do in the sector to get there? Vehicle graph: fuel economy improvements are not enough to be on a 2°C compatible pathway; electric vehicles also need to be rolled out extensively by 2050, here the example for China, but the picture is similar for other countries Buildings graph: more needs to be done in the buildings sector to be on a 2°C pathway. The key measures to move towards this trajectory are ensuring that new buildings are near zero energy buildings and ramping up retrofit rates. The memos are based on data from our decarbonisation portal, which tracks over 40 different decarbonisation indicators for over 30 countries and is available for all to acess freely More info in case of questions The first graph is taken from a memo which looks at the transformations needed in the car market to meet the 2°C limit. The graph shows the historical development of light duty vehicle (LDV) emissions in China, as well as projected developments under no new policies, and two scenario possibilities. Scenario 1 considers the impact of doubling the fuel economy by 2030 on emissions and scenario 2 takes this one step further by also assuming that the share of electric vehicles in the LDV fleet is 50%. The 2°C compatible pathway is also shown on the graph in orange. Scenario 2 is consistent with the 2°C pathway. To go from a 2°C to a 1.5°C pathway, the timeline for phasing out ICE vehicles must be moved forwards, and the CAT estimated that the last gasoline/diesel car would have to be sold by roughly 2035. Another memo looked at decarbonisation of the buildings sector. The graph shows the buildings emissions per capita for five selected major regions and countries against the 2°C pathway. The USA has by far the highest building carbon intensity per capita, but at the same time the largest absolute carbon intensity reductions in recent years, largely due to improved efficiency for appliances and better building envelopes. Further reductions are required to limit warming to 2°C, let alone 1.5°C.