Why are CO2 emissions rising? And where do they need to go? My presentation at Urban Future in Oslo (22 May 2019), describing latest trends and pathways to 1.5°C and 2°C

1. We’re so fu**ing late:
Status of our CO2 reduction efforts
Glen Peters (CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway)
Urban Future (Oslo, 22-24 May 2019)

2. Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)
Where have we been, where are we going?

3. Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)
Where have we been?

4. CO2 emission have a 50% reduction by 2030, net-zero by 2050, around 15GtCO2 (gross) negative emissions by 2100
Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)
What does 1.5°C look like?

5. CO2 emission have a 25% reduction by 2030, net-zero by 2075, around 10GtCO2 (gross) negative emissions by 2100
Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)
What does 2°C look like?

6. Emission trends to 2018
Where have we been?

7. Global fossil CO2 emissions are 63% higher than in 1990, despite efforts on climate policy
Estimates for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are preliminary; 2018 is a projection based on partial data.
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018
Global Fossil CO2 Emissions
Emissions likely
up 1-2% in 2019

8. Oil and gas are growing strongly, and it is the ups and downs of coal leading to changes in global emissions
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018
Emissions from coal, oil, gas, cement

9. Renewable energy is growing exponentially, but has so far been too slow to offset the growth in fossil energy use
This figure shows “primary energy” using the BP substitution method (non-fossil sources are scaled up by an assumed fossil efficiency of 0.38)
Source: BP 2018; Figueres et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018
Energy use by source (excluding bioenergy)

10. Emissions rising in the developing world, even with rapid deployment of solar & wind (e.g., China, India)
Emissions have declined in Europe & North America: Reduced energy use, solar & wind deployment
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018
Emissions by region

11. What are we doing wrong?

12. Energy and climate policy (energy efficiency & renewables) are not sufficient to overcome economic growth…
Source: IEA Global Energy & CO2 Status Report (GECO 2019)
Why are emissions rising?

13. Additional emission reductions by non-state actors are still quite limited: up to 0.45 GtCO2e/year
If initiatives are scaled up to their fullest potential, the impact could be up to 19 GtCO2e/year by 2030
Source: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2018 (EGR 2018)
Are Non-State Actors the solution?

14. Take home messages

15. • Understand & acknowledge the scale of the problem
• We are a collection of individuals (so work together)
• Most individuals will need a helping hand
• Focus on aggregated outcomes that meet goals
Take home messages

16. Peters_Glen
cicero.oslo.no
cicerosenterforklimaforskning
glen.peters@cicero.oslo.no
Glen Peters