The Climate Action Tracker by NewClimate Institute, Climate Analytics and Ecofys presents the ongoing activities on NDC and current policy assessment, country rating and decarbonisation indicators.

1. Assessment of NDCs and
implemented policies
Side Event COP23
Michiel Schaeffer, Kornelis Blok, Hanna Fekete, Lisa Luna, Paola
Parra, Sebastian Sterl (Climate Action tracker)
8 November 2017
www.climateactiontracker.org

2. Agenda
• Assessment of countries’ NDCs and implementation gap (Hanna Fekete,
NewClimate)
• A closer look at countries
– China (Sebastian Sterl, NewClimate)
– India (Kornelis Blok, Ecofys)
– USA (Lisa Luna, NewClimate)
– EU (Paola Parra, Climate Analytics)
• Respondent
– Manish Shrivastava, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)
• Discussion with the audience
Chair: Michiel Schaeffer, Climate Analytics
www.climateactiontracker.org

3. The Climate Action
Tracker rates
countries’
commitments and actions,
collectively and individually,
and tracks real progress
CAT tracks actions under the Paris Agreement
• The Paris Agreement
– Goal of limiting temperature increase
to well below 2oC / 1.5oC
– BUT: no mechanism to ensure
countries act to achieve this goal
– Climate Action Tracker provides an
independent, scientific, ‘real-time’
assessment of progress at country level
IIIIII
Global assessment rates
commitments and actions
collectively
Country assessment rates
commitments and actions
individually
Decarbonisation
work tracks real
progress
© climateactiontracker.org
www.climateactiontracker.org

4. The Climate Action
Tracker rates
countries’
commitments and actions,
collectively and individually,
and tracks real progress
CAT tracks actions under the Paris Agreement
• The Paris Agreement
– Goal of limiting temperature increase
to well below 2oC / 1.5oC
– BUT: no mechanism to ensure
countries act to achieve this goal
– Climate Action Tracker provides an
independent, scientific, ‘real-time’
assessment of progress at country level
IIIIII
Global assessment rates
commitments and actions
collectively
Country assessment rates
commitments and actions
individually
Decarbonisation
work tracks real
progress
© climateactiontracker.org
www.climateactiontracker.org

5. The Climate Action
Tracker rates
countries’
commitments and actions,
collectively and individually,
and tracks real progress
CAT tracks actions under the Paris Agreement
• The Paris Agreement
– Goal of limiting temperature increase
to well below 2oC / 1.5oC
– BUT: no mechanism to ensure
countries act to achieve this goal
– Climate Action Tracker provides an
independent, scientific, ‘real-time’
assessment of progress at country level
IIIIII
Global assessment rates
commitments and actions
collectively
Country assessment rates
commitments and actions
individually
Decarbonisation
work tracks real
progress
© climateactiontracker.org
www.climateactiontracker.org

6. Rating system
www.climateactiontracker.org

7. Rating of NDCs
www.climateactiontracker.org
 Most large emitters need to
significantly increase ambition of
NDCs to become 1.5 Paris
Agreement compatible

8. Implementation of NDCs
www.climateactiontracker.org
 Of the countries that are 2°C or
1.5°C Paris compatible, half
achieve their NDCs with
implemented policies
 Many countries with insufficient
targets do not even achieve those

9. The Climate Action
Tracker rates
countries’
commitments and actions,
collectively and individually,
and tracks real progress
CAT rates countries’ commitments & actions under
the Paris Agreement
• The Paris Agreement
– Goal of limiting temperature increase
to well below 2oC / 1.5oC
– BUT: no mechanism to ensure
countries act to achieve this goal
– Climate Action Tracker provides an
independent, scientific, ‘real-time’
assessment of progress at country level
IIIIII
Global assessment rates
commitments and actions
collectively
Country assessment rates
commitments and actions
individually
Decarbonisation
work tracks real
progress
© climateactiontracker.org
www.climateactiontracker.org

10. Tracking decarbonisation – emission intensity of
energy
www.climateactiontracker.org
 Peaking emission intensity
in China and India
 For 1.5°C, RE growth in
electricity sector needs to
continue at today‘s pace1)
1) Kuramochi et al., The ten most important
short-term steps to limit warming to 1.5°C
2°C world
average

11. Tracking decarbonisation – per capita energy
demand
 Large differences
between countries
 World average needs to
remain at today’s levels
or slightly decline
 Strong changes in
countries above
average required to
allow for others to
grow.
www.climateactiontracker.org
2°C world
average

12. China
National emissions projections and
decarbonisation indicators under
NDCs and implemented policies
Sebastian Sterl (NewClimate Institute)
8 November 2017
www.climateactiontracker.org

13. China: pledges and policies
www.climateactiontracker.org
Main measures / targets listed in China’s NDC:
• Reduction of carbon intensity of GDP;
• Share of gas (10%) and non-fossils (20%) in TPES by 2030;
• Peak CO2 emissions by 2030 at the latest.
Main current policy developments:
• Coal use decreased for third year in a row (Nature); capping coal to
maximum 58% of TPES by 2020 (NDRC)
• Deployment of solar PV already outperformed 2020 target in 13th Five-
Year-Plan; other renewables also on the rise (Greenpeace/Unearthed);
• Electric vehicle deployment strongly increasing (Forbes).

14. China’s NDC and current policy pathway
• Emissions projected to plateau in the near future
• NDC targets will be reached with current policies
• NDC pledge not in line with “fair” contribution to limiting global warming
• Carbon intensity target less ambitious than other targets
www.climateactiontracker.org

15. A closer look at the plateau
www.climateactiontracker.org
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CO2 emissions peak under
continued coal abatement
All GHGs
Non-CO2
CO2 emissions
(energy + process)
Current policy projections
Emissions(MtCO2e/a)

16. Current policies – CO2 emissions may already have reached peak
levels
www.climateactiontracker.org

17. Link to CAT decarb database
• Various indicators relevant for tracking of China’s NDC progress
• Interesting because China’s NDC in terms of indicators other than
absolute emission levels (unlike e.g. EU)
www.climateactiontracker.org
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Shareofnon-fossilfuels(%)
Share of non-fossils in TPES
Historical Projected
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Shareofcoal(%)
Share of coal in TPES
Historical Projected
NDC
target
coal cap

18. Conclusions
www.climateactiontracker.org
• NDC insufficient: leading to 3-4°C warming by 2100, if all countries were to
follow China’s approach
• China’s NDC could be strengthened with e.g. the following:
o Update all targets as current ones seem to be within reach
o Include more quantified peaking commitment and link to peaking of coal, oil use
o Include quantified measures on non-CO2 emissions
o Strengthen or update carbon intensity target

19. India
National emissions projections and
decarbonisation indicators under NDCs
and implemented policies
Kornelis Blok (Ecofys)
8 November 2017
www.climateactiontracker.org

20. India’s NDC is rated “2o C compatible” and India is
on track to (over)achieve its NDC
www.climateactiontracker.org
• Current policies
– Will achieve 2030 non-fossil capacity target
– Will overachieve emissions intensity target
• Planned policies (“Draft Electricity Plan”)
– 40% non-fossil capacity target achieved well before 2022 instead of 2030.
– Moving closer to the CAT’s “1.5oC Paris Agreement compatible” rating

21. India has set targets to reduce emissions in the
transport and power sectors
www.climateactiontracker.org
• Draft Electricity Plan
– Not only foresees fast deployment of wind and solar energy but also assumes energy
conservation measures which include:
• Demand Side Management (DSM)
• Perform, Achieve and Trade Scheme (PAT)
• Energy Conservation Building Code,
• etc.
• Renewables capacity (excl. Hydro)
• Transport policies
– National Electric Mission Mobility Plan (NEMMP) 2020 include targets to deploy 6–7 million
hybrid/electric vehicles per year by 2020.
• This is ~30% of the total vehicles deployed in 2016–17 (22 million units)
– Indian Power Minister Piyush Goyal made an announcement that India aims to phase out
sales of petrol or diesel cars by 2030
Year Capacity (GW)
2014 34
2030 (Current policies) 195–308
2030 (Planned policies) 321

22. India has targets for renewable electricity but also
supports development of domestic coal
www.climateactiontracker.org
• RE generation share
• NITI Aayog’s (2017)
recommendations
– Increase domestic fossil fuel
activities to enhance energy
security
Year Share
%
2014 15
2030 (Current policies) 20–26
2030 (Planned policies) 37

23. USA
National emissions projections and
decarbonisation indicators under NDCs
and implemented policies
Lisa Luna (NewClimate Institute)
8 November 2017
www.climateactiontracker.org

24. USA – Critically Insufficient
www.climateactiontracker.org

25. USA – Critically Insufficient
www.climateactiontracker.org
March
• Obama Administration Climate Action Plan rescinded
• US Mid-Century Strategy disappeared from government
websites

26. USA – Critically Insufficient
www.climateactiontracker.org
June
• Pres. Trump announced intent to withdraw from Paris Agreement

27. USA – Critically Insufficient
www.climateactiontracker.org
October
• Environmental Protection Agency proposed repeal of the Clean
Power Plan

28. Electricity emissions intensity
www.climateactiontracker.orgData sources: IEA, EIA
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
ElectricityemissionsintensitygCO2/kWh
Historical Projected w/o CPP Projected w/ CPP

29. European Union
National emissions projections and
decarbonisation indicators under
NDCs and implemented policies
Paola Yanguas-Parra (Climate Analytics)
8 November 2017
www.climateactiontracker.org

30. European Union – Insufficient
www.climateactiontracker.org
NDC insufficient: leading to 2-3°C warming by 2100, if all countries were to
follow the EU’s approach. Policies in line with NDC but much stronger emissions
reductions needed to achieve long-term target

31. European Union – Insufficient
www.climateactiontracker.org
How to increase the ambition of EU´s NDC and
put policies on track to long-term target?

32. EU – Emissions intensity of electricity generation
www.climateactiontracker.org
-36% reduction below
1990 and -21% below 2000
in 2014
-36% reduction below
2014 in 2030

33. EU – coal share
www.climateactiontracker.org
-38%decrease 1990- 2014

34. EU – coal share member states
www.climateactiontracker.org
For some members states (e.g. Germany), coal
still represents a third of their energy mix.

35. EU – coal power generation
25%
of gross
electricity
generation
17%
of total GHG
emissions
760
Mt CO2 yearly
Coal share is much higher in electricity mix,
with Germany and Poland concentrating 50%
of the installed capacity.
293 coal power plants,,
with combined installed
capacity of 153 GW.
Source:
Climate Analytics (2016). Implications of the Paris Agreement for Coal Use in the Power Sector

36. EU – coal phase-out plans
Coal needs to be phased out by
2030 in the EU to be consistent
with the Paris Agreement.
Many member states are already
implementing coal phase-out by
this year and civil society is
mobilizing to increase ambition.
Sources:
Climate Analytics (2016). Implications of the Paris Agreement for Coal Use in the Power Sector
Beyond Coal (2017). https://beyond-coal.eu/
Finland:
2030
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania:
No coal
UK:
2025
France:
2023
NL:
2030
Italy:
2025
Portugal:
2030
Berlin:
2030
Munich:
2020
BL:
2016
Sweden:
2022
Norway:
No coal

37. Conclusions
www.climateactiontracker.org
• NDC insufficient: leading to 2-3°C warming by 2100, if
all countries were to follow the EU’s approach
• How to enhance the level of ambition of the EU NDC?
o Coal needs to be phased out by 2030
o Renewables deployment
o Energy sector fully decarbonised by 2050
o Net zero emissions in the second half of the century

38. THANK YOU
info@climateactiontracker.org