Part of: "Side event: Towards long-term national scenarios: Modelling meets policy"

1. Side event at UNFCCC meetings, SB48
How do we get there?
Policy perspective – current and good
practice policies, opportunities to scale
up mitigation action
Takeshi Kuramochi
Bonn, 3 May 2018

2. 1. Recent policy developments
2. Coverage of good practice policies
3. Potential policy impact of global roll-out of successful
sector examples
03/05/2018 www.newclimate.org 2
How do we get there?

3. Activities since July 2017: 1)
• Carbon pricing (e.g. CO2 tax in Argentina, ETS in China, EU ETS reform…)
• Transport (biofuels in Brazil, continued e-mobility support in India, VAT on fuels in Saudi Arabia …)
• Power (new Electricity Plan in R.Korea, no new conventional coal plant in Chile…)
Wind and solar energy is still developing so fast that projections for emissions in 2030
are revised downwards, e.g. 2)
• USA (despite federal efforts in the opposite direction)
• Chile (where record low costs for RE paved the way to the adoption of a plan to phase out coal)
• Argentina (with new energy scenarios)
Increasing zero carbon action 2)
• New Zealand to be net zero carbon by 2050
• “Powering Past Coal Alliance” of more than 20 countries aiming at phasing out its use, new plans for
Chile and Germany
• Goals for the last fossil fuel powered car sold: 2025 (Norway), 2030 (Netherlands), 2040 (France, UK)
3
Recent policy developments
1) NewClimate Institute, PBL and IIASA: GHG mitigation scenarios for major emitting countries – an overview of recently adopted policies (April 2018)
https://newclimate.org/2018/04/30/update-ghg-mitigation-scenarios-for-major-emitting-countries-an-overview-of-recently-adopted-policies/
2) Climate Action Tracker 3 May update: www.climateactiontracker.org,
briefing: https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/352/CAT_BriefingNote_SB48_May2018.docx

4. Coverage of good practice
policies in G20
Coverage of good practice policies3) increasing but gaps remain, i.e. potential for enhanced action
• Fossil fuel subsidies reduction (in case of transport: covered only by 38% of G20 countries)
• Industry: material efficiency measures in industry (38%), oil and gas CH4 (38%)
• Buildings: support schemes for renewables heating and cooling (19%)
• Transport: emission standards for heavy duty vehicles (56%), e-mobility programmes (31%)
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3) Climate policy database: CD-LINKS policy inventory (http://www.climatepolicydatabase.org/index.php?title=CDlinks_policy_inventory,
accessed 2 May, 2018)

5. Close to 2°C, if all countries
replicate successful examples
Reductions if all countries would replicate policy impact
of successful sector examples
Source: Fekete, H., Roelfsema, M., Höhne, N. et al., 2015. Impacts of good practice policies on regional and global greenhouse gas
emissions, https://newclimateinstitute.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/task2c_goodpracticeanalysis_july_2015.pdf
Figure 1. Global greenhouse gas emissions under current policies scenario and implementation of
good practice policies in all countries excl. LULUCF and only LULUCF. Note: emissions in 2010 are
48.8 GtCO2e, and thus slightly lower than other sources (e.g. (UNEP, 2014)).
Figure 2: Reductions below the implemented policies for each of the nine policy areas covered, based
on two methods from NewClimate Institute and PBL. Source: Authors
All the results above are based on the assumption that the good practice policies can be technically
implemented on a global level. We have not considered country specific circumstances beyond energy
0
10,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
NewClimateInstitute PBL
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GtCO2e/a
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Promotion of electric vehicles
Efficiency standards for light duty vehicles
Efficiency standards for the building
envelope
Reduction of f-gases
Promotion of energy efficiency in industry
Targets for methane reduction from oil and
gas production
Reducing electricity demand from industry
and buildings
Support for renewable electricity
Current policies (excl. LULUCF)
03/05/2018 www.newclimate.org 5

6. Conclusions
Rapid policy developments & coverage of good practice
policies increasing, but gaps remain
Global roll-out of successful sector policy examples in
selected areas could already bring us close to 2°C
trajectory
Enhanced coverage of good practice policies can further
narrow the emissions gap
www.newclimate.org 603/05/2018