The document discusses the challenges of tracking progress towards climate change targets that are expressed as reductions from "business as usual" baselines. Nearly half of countries' intended nationally determined contributions rely on business as usual baselines, but there is no agreed definition or process for setting these baselines. Baseline projections can vary significantly depending on modeling techniques, assumptions, and circumstances. More transparency is needed around countries' baseline scenarios in order to properly assess expected global emissions levels and track overall progress towards climate goals.

1. Climate Change Expert Group www.oecd.org/env/cc/ccxg.htm
“Business as usual” baselines:
Challenges for tracking NDCs
Andrew Prag
OECD Secretariat
CCXG Global Forum on the Environment
16 March 2016

2. 2 Climate Change Expert Group
Nearly half of INDCs
rely on BaU baselines
 So it is essential to understand BAU baselines to track
global (and individual) progress
Source: Own analysis based on Carbon Brief summary
Reduction
relative to BAU
Absolute
reduction
Intensity
reduction
Peak
Other
Number of INDCs
Approx. share of
global GHG emissions

3. 3 Climate Change Expert Group
Is there such a thing as business-as-usual?
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
MtCO2
CO2 Projections: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 1998 - 2012
AEO 1998 AEO 1999 AEO 2000 AEO 2001 AEO 2002 AEO 2003 AEO 2004 AEO 2005
AEO 2006 AEO 2007 AEO 2008 AEO 2009 AEO 2010 AEO 2011 AEO 2012 Actual
Δ = 2600 Mt

4. 4 Climate Change Expert Group
Expected level of global emissions
depends on baseline scenariosHistoricalemissions
Historicalemissions
Historicalemissions
?
Historical
emissions
Target year
AbsoluteemissionstCO2e
 Absolute emissions in the target year depend on
assumptions and modelling of baseline pathway
 Across multiple countries, difficult to understand
expected global emissions outcome – 2C or not 2C?
X%
X%

5. 5 Climate Change Expert Group
Challenges for understanding
baselines in (I)NDCs
 Currently no formal international guidance or process for
setting baseline projections, nor for transparency on their
substance
 Scope, assumptions and modelling techniques are
specific to country circumstances and capacities
 Circumstances change – when should a projection be
updated?
 Mitigation policies affect emissions trajectories
(hopefully!): Should existing policies be included in the
baseline assumptions? What about planned policies?

6. 6 Climate Change Expert Group
Areas where transparency is
important
 Modelling techniques employed
 Scope (sectors, gases, starting year)
 Assumptions on socioeconomic factors
(GDP, population, energy prices, income
distribution)
 Data sources for emissions sources and
emissions factors
 Treatment of existing or planned climate
policies
 Expected cycle of revisions or updating
 Use of sensitivity analyses
 Use of public consultation or expert reviews

7. 7 Climate Change Expert Group
Questions for discussion
1. What information is needed to “track progress made in
implementing and achieving” NDCs expressed as
reductions from BAU baselines?
2. What guidance would be most useful to facilitate
transparency in tracking progress for this type of NDC
(e.g. common guidance for setting and revising national
baselines)?
DEA-OECD-UNEP publication “National Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Baseline Scenarios Learning from Experiences in Developing Countries”:
http://www.ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/dokumenter/side/national_greenho
use_gas_emissions_baseline_scenarios_-_web_-_spreads.pdf