The document presents the 'Prospects' tool developed by NewClimate Institute for tracking energy and emissions in developing countries, focusing on simplified emissions calculation and future pathway projections. It emphasizes a user-friendly design, low data requirements, and flexibility for policy scenarios, aiming to estimate emissions across various sectors. The tool has been validated through case studies in the European Union and South Africa, and future developments are planned to enhance its application in additional countries.

1. 11/16/2017 www.newclimate.org 1
COP23 Bonn, 10-11-2017, EU Pavilion, 16:45-
18:15
Beyond Philanthropy
PROSPECTS—A transparent energy and
emissions tracking tool for developing countries
Sebastian Sterl
NewClimate Institute

2. Purpose
 PROSPECTS (Policy-Related Overall
and Sectoral Projections of Emission
Curves and Time Series) is a tool for
emissions calculation and tracking
 Idea of having a simplified version of CTI tools (“spin-off”) applicable to
countries for which CTI approach is too complicated
 Purpose is twofold:
– Bottom-up estimations of historical sectoral emissions
– Calculation of future pathways of sectoral emissions
 Rationale
– Fast rollout to any country thanks to low data needs
– Flexible policy scenarios to see effect of indicator change
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3. Overview
• Overall functional design
• Demonstrations
• Way forward
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4. Overall functional design
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Historical data
Electricity / heat Buildings Cement Etc...
(supply side)
Indicator projections
(demand side)
Country overview
Data validation
(historical)
(future)
(raw data)
User input
Automatic
calculations
Legend
Energy demand time series
• Total electricity demand by sector
• Total direct energy demand by sector
• Total final energy demand by sector
• Total primary demand by fuel
Emissions time series
• By sector
• By sector with power allocated to end-use sectors
• By type (energy-related CO2, other CO2, non-CO2)

5. Sectoral split
11/16/2017 www. newclimate.org 5
 Supply side
1) Electricity supply
2) Heat supply
 Demand side
1) Buildings (residential / commercial)
2) Cement industry
3) Steel industry
4) Other industry (light / heavy)
5) Transport (passenger / freight)
6) Agriculture (energy)
 Non-energy related
1) Oil & gas (fugitive, flaring)
2) Waste
3) Agriculture (non-CO2)
4) (LULUCF)

6. The power of PROSPECTS
Optimal balance between accuracy and simplicity
• Distilled list of metrics that together account for ~100% of a country’s emissions
• Separation of data into activity and intensity metrics
 Activity: country-specific, e.g. steel production, traffic demand, fuel mixes
 Intensity: context-specific, e.g. energy intensity of steel, vehicle fuel economy
• Tailored link with existing databases to minimise specific data requirements
• High degree of user flexibility for emission projections through indicator levers;
intuitive list of indicators for future projections; easy to grasp for people who
are not model experts
Bottom line:
To get a good estimate of any country’s emissions, the country-specific data and resource needs can be
straightforwardly limited by appropriate choices of metrics.
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7. Overview
• Overall functional design
• Demonstrations
• Way forward
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8. Demonstrations
• European Union (Validation exercise)
• South Africa (Litmus test)
• Cement sector in EU, China & Nigeria (Successful
application)
• Analysis of pledges (Potential application)
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9. (1) European Union
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Emissions excl.
LULUCF
Emissions by sector
Emissions with power broken down to sectors
s(excl. LULUCF)
CTI
UNFCCC
EDGAR
empty4
empty5
95 2000 2005 2010 2015
rall emissions(excl. LULUCF)
CTI
UNFCCC
EDGAR
empty4
empty5
PROSPECTS
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Emissions(MtCO2e/yr)
Overall emissions (excl.LULUCF)
CTI
UNFCCC
EDGAR
empty4
empty5
PROSPECTS
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Emissions(MtCO2e/yr)
Emissions by sector
Electricity Heat Transport Buildings
Steel Cement Other industry Oil & gas
Waste Agriculture
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Emissions(MtCO2e/yr)
Emissions by sector
Electricity Heat Transport Buildings
Steel Cement Other industry Oil & gas
Waste Agriculture

10. 11/16/2017 www.newclimate.org 10
“Status quo” scenario “Deep decarbonisation” scenario
 60% RE in power by 2030
 50% EVs on the road (LDVs) by 2030
 90% electrification rate in heating and cooking
in buildings by 2030
 Deep renovation rates of 2% by 2030
 All other activity / intensity constant
 All activity / intensity constant
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Emissions(MtCO2e/yr)
Emissions by sector
Electricity Heat Transport Buildings
Steel Cement Other industry Oil & gas
Waste Agriculture
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Emissions(MtCO2e/yr)
Emissions by sector
Electricity Heat Transport Buildings
Steel Cement Other industry Oil & gas
Waste Agriculture
(1) European Union – example scenario: emissions

11. (1) European Union – example scenario: TPED
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“Status quo” scenario “Deep decarbonisation” scenario
 60% RE in power by 2030
 50% EVs on the road (LDVs) by 2030
 90% electrification rate in heating and cooking
in buildings by 2030
 Deep renovation rates of 2% by 2030
 All other activity / intensity constant
 All activity / intensity constant
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Totalprimaryenergydemand(PJ)
Total demand for fuels
Coal Natural gas Oil
Waste Biofuels Nuclear
Other non-fossil
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Totalprimaryenergydemand(PJ)
Total demand for fuels
Coal Natural gas Oil
Waste Biofuels Nuclear
Other non-fossil

12. (1) European Union – example scenario: TFC
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“Deep decarbonisation” scenario –
Electricity demand
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Directenergydemand(PJ)
Direct energy demand
Own use, losses Transport
Buildings Steel
Cement Other industry
Oil & gas Waste
Agricult ure
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Eelctricitydemand(TWh)
Electricity demand
Own use, losses Transport
Buildings Steel
Cement Other industry
Oil & gas Waste
Agricult ure
“Deep decarbonisation” scenario –
Direct energy demand
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Directenergydemand(PJ)
Direct energy demand
Own use, losses Transport
Buildings Steel
Cement Other industry
Oil & gas Waste
Agricult ure
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Directenergydemand(PJ)
Direct energy demand
Own use, losses Transport
Buildings Steel
Cement Other industry
Oil & gas Waste
Agricult ure
Increase in
electricity
demand due to
these levers
 60% RE in power by 2030
 50% EVs on the road (LDVs) by 2030
 90% electrification rate in heating and
cooking in buildings by 2030
 Deep renovation rates of 2% by 2030
 All other activity / intensity constant

13. (2) South Africa
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Emissions excl.
LULUCF
Emissions by sector
Emissions with power broken down to sectors
ns(excl. LULUCF)
UNFCCC
ZAFNIR2013
EDGAR
empty4
empty5
95 2000 2005 2010 2015
verall emissions(excl. LULUCF)
UNFCCC
ZAFNIR2013
EDGAR
empty4
empty5
PROSPECTS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Emissions(MtCO2e/yr)
Emissions by sector
Electricity Heat Transport Buildings
Steel Cement Other industry Oil & gas
Waste Agriculture
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Emissions(MtCO2e/yr)
Overall emissions(excl. LULUCF)
UNFCCC
ZAFNIR2013
EDGAR
empty4
empty5
PROSPECTS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Emissions(MtCO2e/yr)
Emissions by sector
Electricit y Heat Transport
Buildings Steel Cement
Other industry Oil & gas Waste
Agricult ure
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Emissions(MtCO2e/yr)
Emissions by sector
Electricit y Heat Transport
Buildings Steel Cement
Other industry Oil & gas Waste
Agricult ure

14. (3) Cement sector – case study
14
Sterl, Wong, et al. (2017), Manufacturing a low-carbon
society: How can we reduce emissions from cement and
steel?, Climate Action Tracker (CAT),
http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/Decarb
Series/Memo_Decarb_Industry_Final.pdf

15. (4) Achieving the EU NDC: parameter space
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Target:
Reduction of 40% by 2030
compared to 1990 levels
Idea:
Reaching the EU NDC through
- Electrifying transport
- Electrifying buildings
- Increasing RE share
Assumptions:
- RE replaces fossil fuels, nuclear
- EV penetration applies to all
motorised road transport (cars,
buses, trucks)
- All demand-side energy
intensities (buildings, industry,
transport, agriculture) show
autonomous improvement of
1%/year
- All other activity/intensity
indicators constant (Values in graph are for 2030; linear development from 2015 assumed)

16. Overview
• Overall functional design
• Demonstrations
• Way forward
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17. Future work
 Build a shell tool / interface around PROSPECTS for support of
ICAT (Initiative for Climate Action Transparency)
 Further validation of methodology through testing on USA case
 Design of credible future scenarios based on current policies
 Further tests (full inventories + projections) for the following
countries planned:
– Argentina (G20) – Mongolia
– Indonesia (G20) – Georgia (under consideration)
– Turkey (G20) – Kenya (under consideration)
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18. Collaborators and co-authors
NewClimate Institute
Jing Zhang, Markus Hagemann, Hanna Fekete, prof. dr. Niklas Höhne
Ecofys
dr. Yvonne Deng, Karlien Wouters, Tom Berg, prof. dr. Kornelis Blok
Climate Analytics
Fabio Sferra, Jasmin Cantzler, dr. (h.c.) Bill Hare, dr. Michiel Schaeffer
PROSPECTS © 2017 Climate Action Tracker (NewClimate Institute,
Ecofys, Climate Analytics). All rights reserved.
This work was funded by the ClimateWorks Foundation.
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