The document discusses the European Union's emissions projections, decarbonization efforts, and policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It finds that the EU's current NDC is insufficient and would lead to 2-3°C of warming by 2100. It notes that coal currently makes up 25% of EU electricity generation and 17% of greenhouse gas emissions, and that phasing out coal by 2030 is needed to be consistent with the Paris Agreement's goals. The document concludes that the EU needs to enhance its climate policies by phasing out coal by 2030, increasing renewable energy deployment, fully decarbonizing the energy sector by 2050, and achieving net zero emissions in the second half of the century.

1. European Union
National emissions projections and
decarbonisation indicators under
NDCs and implemented policies
Paola Yanguas-Parra (Climate Analytics)
8 November 2017
www.climateactiontracker.org

2. European Union – Insufficient
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NDC insufficient: leading to 2-3°C warming by 2100, if all countries were to
follow the EU’s approach. Policies in line with NDC but much stronger emissions
reductions needed to achieve long-term target

3. European Union – Insufficient
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How to increase the ambition of EU´s NDC and
put policies on track to long-term target?

4. EU – Emissions intensity of electricity generation
www.climateactiontracker.org
-36% reduction below
1990 and -21% below 2000
in 2014
-36% reduction below
2014 in 2030

5. EU – coal share
www.climateactiontracker.org
-38%decrease 1990- 2014

6. EU – coal share member states
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For some members states (e.g. Germany), coal
still represents a third of their energy mix.

7. EU – coal power generation
25%
of gross
electricity
generation
17%
of total GHG
emissions
760
Mt CO2 yearly
Coal share is much higher in electricity mix,
with Germany and Poland concentrating 50%
of the installed capacity.
293 coal power plants,,
with combined installed
capacity of 153 GW.
Source:
Climate Analytics (2016). Implications of the Paris Agreement for Coal Use in the Power Sector

8. EU – coal phase-out plans
Coal needs to be phased out by
2030 in the EU to be consistent
with the Paris Agreement.
Many member states are already
implementing coal phase-out by
this year and civil society is
mobilizing to increase ambition.
Sources:
Climate Analytics (2016). Implications of the Paris Agreement for Coal Use in the Power Sector
Beyond Coal (2017). https://beyond-coal.eu/
Finland:
2030
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania:
No coal
UK:
2025
France:
2023
NL:
2030
Italy:
2025
Portugal:
2030
Berlin:
2030
Munich:
2020
BL:
2016
Sweden:
2022
Norway:
No coal

9. Conclusions
www.climateactiontracker.org
• NDC insufficient: leading to 2-3°C warming by 2100, if
all countries were to follow the EU’s approach
• How to enhance the level of ambition of the EU NDC?
o Coal needs to be phased out by 2030
o Renewables deployment
o Energy sector fully decarbonised by 2050
o Net zero emissions in the second half of the century

10. THANK YOU!

11. EXTRA SLIDES

12. EU – Emissions intensity of electricity generation
www.climateactiontracker.org
190% increase 1990- 2014

13. EU – coal phase-out
www.climateactiontracker.org
To be in line with the Paris Agreement the EU
would need to phase-out coal by 2030.

14. EU – coal phase-out at the unit level
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