The Climate Action Tracker: Latest analysis for the global stocktake
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Niklas Höhne and Bill Hare presented the latest analysis of the Climate Action Tracker concerning the global stocktake at COP 23 in Bonn.
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The Climate Action Tracker: Latest analysis for the global stocktake
- 1. The Climate Action Tracker Latest analysis for the global stocktake COP 23 German Pavilion side event Bill Hare & Niklas Höhne (Climate Action tracker) 6 November 2017 www.climateactiontracker.org
- 2. The Climate Action Tracker rates countries’ commitments and actions, collectively and individually, and tracks real progress CAT tracks actions under the Paris Agreement • The Paris Agreement – Goal of limiting temperature increase to well below 2oC / 1.5oC – BUT: no mechanism to ensure countries act to achieve this goal – Climate Action Tracker provides an independent, scientific, ‘real-time’ assessment of progress at country level IIIIII Global assessment rates commitments and actions collectively Country assessment rates commitments and actions individually Decarbonisation work tracks real progress © climateactiontracker.org www.climateactiontracker.org
- 3. The Climate Action Tracker rates countries’ commitments and actions, collectively and individually, and tracks real progress CAT tracks actions under the Paris Agreement • The Paris Agreement – Goal of limiting temperature increase to well below 2oC / 1.5oC – BUT: no mechanism to ensure countries act to achieve this goal – Climate Action Tracker provides an independent, scientific, ‘real-time’ assessment of progress at country level IIIIII Global assessment rates commitments and actions collectively Country assessment rates commitments and actions individually Decarbonisation work tracks real progress © climateactiontracker.org www.climateactiontracker.org
- 4. CAT evaluates aggregate global emissions levels against the Paris Agreement temperature goal www.climateactiontracker.org Emissions gap Commitments Actions 2oC 1.5oC Join us for the CAT COP23 Global emissions and temperature update Wed, 15 Nov, 12:30 press conference • Major contribution to the UNEP emissions gap reports since 2010 • Results published in Nature 534, 631–639
- 5. The Climate Action Tracker rates countries’ commitments and actions, collectively and individually, and tracks real progress CAT tracks actions under the Paris Agreement • The Paris Agreement – Goal of limiting temperature increase to well below 2oC / 1.5oC – BUT: no mechanism to ensure countries act to achieve this goal – Climate Action Tracker provides an independent, scientific, ‘real-time’ assessment of progress at country level IIIIII Global assessment rates commitments and actions collectively Country assessment rates commitments and actions individually Decarbonisation work tracks real progress © climateactiontracker.org www.climateactiontracker.org
- 6. Most NDCs are not compatible with limiting the global temperature increase to <2oC www.climateactiontracker.org
- 7. India • Renewables outperform coal • Will achieve Paris contribution by a wide margin www.climateactiontracker.org
- 8. China • Reducing coal consumption • Have CO2 emissions peaked? www.climateactiontracker.org
- 9. USA • Rollback of federal climate policies • Increasing action by sub-national and non-state actors www.climateactiontracker.org
- 10. EU www.climateactiontracker.org • Limited movement, enhancement of policies planned but not yet implemented • NDC almost achieved
- 11. The Climate Action Tracker rates countries’ commitments and actions, collectively and individually, and tracks real progress CAT rates countries’ commitments & actions under the Paris Agreement • The Paris Agreement – Goal of limiting temperature increase to well below 2oC / 1.5oC – BUT: no mechanism to ensure countries act to achieve this goal – Climate Action Tracker provides an independent, scientific, ‘real-time’ assessment of progress at country level IIIIII Global assessment rates commitments and actions collectively Country assessment rates commitments and actions individually Decarbonisation work tracks real progress © climateactiontracker.org www.climateactiontracker.org
- 12. Short-term steps to peak and start the emissions decline www.climateactiontracker.org
- 13. Detailed decarbonisation data portal www.climateactiontracker.org Full, free access, full data download
- 14. CAT also does analysis on how the gap can be filled www.climateactiontracker.org Zero emission vehicles need to take over market Constructing the future: creating a Agreement-proof building sector China light duty vehicle emissions (MtCO2e/year) Per capita building sector emissions (tCO2/capita)
- 15. Recent CAT analyses available online: Country assessments for 30+ countries Global temperature estimate The 10 most important steps to limit warming to 1.5°C Decarbonisation portal Faster and cleaner II: It only takes a few countries to kick-start energy system decarbonisation Zero emission vehicles need to take over car market to reach 1.5oC limit: analysis Constructing the future: creating a Paris Agreement-proof building sector Foot off the gas: increased reliance on natural gas in the power sector risks an emissions lock-in Get in touch with us at info@climateactiontracker.org
Editor's Notes
- Other activities of the Climate Action Tracker explain how the emissions gap can be filled For example, through the decarbonisation memo series funded by the ClimateWorks Foundation, the CAT is producing a series of concise 4-page memos focusing on sectoral decarbonisation We produced one of these for transport and one for buildings, for example, where for both sectors we tried to answer the question: For this sector, where does the world need to be for 1.5C/2C and what can we concretely do in the sector to get there? Vehicle graph: fuel economy improvements are not enough to be on a 2°C compatible pathway; electric vehicles also need to be rolled out extensively by 2050, here the example for China, but the picture is similar for other countries Buildings graph: more needs to be done in the buildings sector to be on a 2°C pathway. The key measures to move towards this trajectory are ensuring that new buildings are near zero energy buildings and ramping up retrofit rates. The memos are based on data from our decarbonisation portal, which tracks over 40 different decarbonisation indicators for over 30 countries and is available for all to acess freely More info in case of questions The first graph is taken from a memo which looks at the transformations needed in the car market to meet the 2°C limit. The graph shows the historical development of light duty vehicle (LDV) emissions in China, as well as projected developments under no new policies, and two scenario possibilities. Scenario 1 considers the impact of doubling the fuel economy by 2030 on emissions and scenario 2 takes this one step further by also assuming that the share of electric vehicles in the LDV fleet is 50%. The 2°C compatible pathway is also shown on the graph in orange. Scenario 2 is consistent with the 2°C pathway. To go from a 2°C to a 1.5°C pathway, the timeline for phasing out ICE vehicles must be moved forwards, and the CAT estimated that the last gasoline/diesel car would have to be sold by roughly 2035. Another memo looked at decarbonisation of the buildings sector. The graph shows the buildings emissions per capita for five selected major regions and countries against the 2°C pathway. The USA has by far the highest building carbon intensity per capita, but at the same time the largest absolute carbon intensity reductions in recent years, largely due to improved efficiency for appliances and better building envelopes. Further reductions are required to limit warming to 2°C, let alone 1.5°C.
- The current CAT analysis shows that we are on a pathway to 3.6°C of global warming under currently implemented policies, and 2.8°C under climate pledges More action is needed, and CAT has more information on how this gap can be filled here