Climate change and agricultulture wfp side event durban
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Short presntation setting the scene for the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security
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Climate change and agricultulture wfp side event durban
- 1. COP 17 Durban, Dec 2011 Living with extremes – what the science says Bruce Campbell, Director, CGIAR Climate (CCAFS)
- 2. Three key messages 1. Agriculture and food systems need to be totally transformed 2. Extremes can be expected in many forms 3. There are solutions, ….
- 3. Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change 13 scientists from around the world Identify and promote policy actions to achieve sustainable agriculture, food security and poverty reduction while delivering climate change adaptation and mitigation
- 4. The food security challenge • 1 billion undernourished • 1 billion more mouths to feed in 14 years • Up to 60-70% more food needed by 2050 Asia Africa
- 5. The adaptation challenge 2 PROBLEMATIC • Increased floods and storms • Shortage of water resources • Impacts on food production at low latitudes • Greater depth of seasonal permafrost thaw DISASTROUS ° • A 16 °C increase in the Arctic • Substantial impact on major crops • Around 1 billion additional people experience water scarcity • Extensive coastal flooding as sea levels rise
- 6. The adaptation challenge….. Length of growing period (%) >20% loss 2090; 14 climate 5-20% loss models No change 5-20% gain >20% gain Four degree rise Thornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS
- 7. The “footprint” challenge • Agriculture contributes nearly a third of GHGs • ¾ of these emissions come from developing countries
- 8. Food Mitigation Security Adaptation Meridian Institute, 2011
- 9. Message #1: Agriculture and food systems need to be totally transformed
- 10. Extreme events
- 11. • Pose greater threat to livelihoods and food security than the long-term changes in averages. • Result in crisis and hardship; but just as important is “lost opportunity” People living in dryland areas - 2 billion People dependent on degrading land - 1.5 billion
- 12. What is Predicted? • It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation ….. will increase in the 21st century…. • There is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the 21st century Source: IPCC November 2011
- 13. Projected Changes in Extreme Precipitation West Africa East Africa South Africa 50 50 50 20 20 20 10 10 10 5 5 5 3 3 3 c. 2050 c. 2100 c. 2050 c. 2100 c. 2050 c. 2100 IPCC 2011
- 14. Number of Natural Disasters in Sub-Saharan Africa (1975-2005) Source: The Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters/ IEG World Bank
- 15. Source: The Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters
- 16. • Bangladesh (2007): – 1.6 million acres of cropland damaged – 25% winter rice crop destroyed • Myanmar (2008) – 4 m storm surge inundated coastal regions up to 40 km inland – Soil salination made 50,000 acres of rice cropland unfit for planting
- 17. Weather catastrophes Overall losses Insured losses Source: Munich RE NatCatSERVICE
- 18. Message #2: Extremes can be expected in many forms
- 19. Message #3 There are solutions………. Source: IPCC November 2011
- 20. www.ccafs.cgiar.org Sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate 20
Editor's Notes
- So, we have three grand challenges.A key focus of CCAFS is understanding the synergies and trade-offs amongst these objectives, working from plot to global levels
- Globally …………………….In Latin America, Africa and AsiaWhether they are farming rice, beans, have mixed crop-livestock systems, or whether they are pastoralists or rely on fisheries or forestsWhether they are in the humid tropics or the arid zonesClimate change is likely to hit the vulnerable groups the most – remote rural dwellers, women farmers etc
- The second grand challenge is adaptation to climate change
- Projected return periods for a daily precipitation event that was exceeded in thelate-20th-century on average once during a 20-year period (1981–2000). A decrease in returnperiod implies more frequent extreme precipitation events (i.e., less time between events onaverage). The box plots show results for regionally averaged projections for two time horizons,2046 to 2065 and 2081 to 2100, as compared to the late-20th-century, and for three differentSRES emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, A2) (see legend). Results are based on 14 GCMscontributing to the CMIP3. The level of agreement among the models is indicated by the size ofthe colored boxes (in which 50% of the model projections are contained), and the length of thewhiskers (indicating the maximum and minimum projections from all models).
- Source Citation: IEG World Bank. 2007. Disasters, Climate Change, and Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa Lessons and Future Directions. Evaluation Brief 3. June 2007. NOTE: IT IS IMPORTANT TO SAY THAT THE INCREASE IN DISASTERS IS NOT NECESSARILY CLIMATE CHANGE (see longer note below)Note for figure (from source document): Disasters include the following events between 1975 and 2005: drought, earthquake, flood, insect infestation, earth slides, volcanic eruptions, waves or surges, and wind storms. For a disaster to be entered into the database, at least one of the following criteria must be fulfilled: 10 or more people reported killed; 100 people reported affected; a call for international assistance; or declaration of a state of emergency. Some but not all of the increase may be due to better reporting. (The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, UniversitéCatholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium.)
- Source Citation: IEG World Bank. 2007. Disasters, Climate Change, and Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa Lessons and Future Directions. Evaluation Brief 3. June 2007.