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Session 2 dorte verner


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Session 2 dorte verner

  1. 1. Towards aRegional Flagship Report Beirut, February 2012 Dorte Verner, Climate Change Coordinator, Mena Region, The World Bank
  2. 2.  CC is the development challenge of our time in the Arab countries CC is a threat to poverty reduction and economic growth  May reverse many of the development gains made in recent decades This calls for action  We need to act now, act together, and act differently (World Bank, 2010)
  3. 3. Current and projected climatevariability and Calls for climate change change adaptation to reduce the Increased Vulnerability negative impactsOther stresses, and build climate e.g.: resilient Increase in communities population, urbanizationand education in the Arab countries
  4. 4.  Flagship Report provides: ▪ Information on climate change and consequences and ▪ Practical guidance on CC adaptation for policymakers ▪ Opportunity for collaboration between LAS, 20+ regional researchers and advisors Addresses the Arab region as a whole  The IPCC reports splits the Arab world in 2 parts:  North Africa  Arabian Peninsula
  5. 5.  Climate change is happening now - 2010:  the warmest year since late 1800s when records began ▪ Kuwait (52.6°C), Iraq & Saudi Arab. (52.0°C), Qatar (50.4°C) & Sudan(49.7°C)  Arabian Sea experienced the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone on record  Coral reefs took the 2nd worse beating because of record summer ocean-water temperature Threatening wellbeing and livelihoods
  6. 6.  In recent decades  Temperatures increased by 0.2-0.3°C per decade ▪ More frequent and intense heat waves  Less, but more intense rainfall, causing increased frequency of droughts and floods Threatening wellbeing and livelihoods
  7. 7.  Temperatures are likely to rise 0.3-0.4°C/decade  1.5 times faster than the global average Most of North Africa and the eastern Mediterranean will become drier Greater variability and more extremes
  8. 8.  Throughout history people have coped with a harsh environment 2200 BC, a temporary climate shift created 300 years of reduced rainfall and colder temperatures that forced people to abandon their rainfed fields in NE Syria With CC, coping strategies that people have exploited throughout history may no longer be available and adequate
  9. 9.  Temperature increases and changes in precipitation are likely to  CGE model  Reduce household incomes - Syria $3.4 B, Yemen $5.7 B by 2050 (taking into account autonomous adaptation) Droughts  Reduce growth in GDP by ~1 pp compared to non- drought year  Increase poverty levels by 0.3-1.4 pp
  10. 10.  Droughts  reduce growth in GDP by ~1 pp compared to non- drought year (CGE)  Worsens food security significantly - the poor are hit the hardest ▪ loss of capital, reduced incomes, and higher food prices ▪ poverty levels increase by 0.3-1.4 pp ▪ Poor farm households are most affected, followed by rural nonfarm and urban households
  11. 11.  In 2050, the region will likely face a 10% reduction in water run-off due to climate change Today there is a 16% renewable water supply gap, in 2050 The region likely face a 50% renewable water supply gap 450 Renewable Water Resources 400 16% 37% 51% 350 Total Water Demand 300 Water, km3 250 % of demand unmet by 200 renewable 150 sources 100 50 0 2000-2009 2020-2030 2040-2050 year
  12. 12.  70% of the poorest people live in rural areas and  Among the most vulnerable to CC Agricultural output could decrease 20-40% by 2080 due to high dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture Stresses to local food production systems calls for increased import  Global food price rises, especially spikes, will decrease food access for vulnerable households Social safety nets and other programs are called for
  13. 13. Urbanization % 80 ~70% live along the 37,000 km 60 developed coastline; 40 in low-lying coastal 20 zones 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Arab World World Yemen UAE Tunisia Without basic services, residents of informal settlements have little capacity to adapt to climate hazards CC vulnerability needs to be considered up front when making infrastructure investment decisions
  14. 14.  CC impacts men and women differently  Women often responsible for natural resource & household management  & have limited participation in the decision-making process => Smart climate policy is inclusive process- youth, men & women take part in the decision-making to increase climate resilience 90 Women and Men Engaged in Agriculture, % of Economically Active Population (2004) 80 70 60 50 40 Women 30 Men 20 10 0 Algeria Djibouti Egypt Jordan Lebanon Morocco Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen
  15. 15.  Diversify  Economic activities both at household level & national level to increase climate resilience Integrate Adaptation  Into all projects; not stand-alone adaptation projects Apply for All  Rich and poor and most sectors will be impacted by CC Leadership  A holistic approach is called for, incl. youth , men & women
  16. 16.  October 2011: Draft to LAS & Gov’s for comments ▪ The draft to be presented and discussed at the JCEDAR, LAS ▪ Consultations in: Jordan, Lebanon, Tunisia, and UAE January & February 2012: Incorporating comments provided by the governments, etc. & finalize report Spring 2012: Launch Report, Movie, Portal, ...
  17. 17.  Italian Development Cooperation European Union International Fund for Agricultural Development League of Arab States World Bank’s MENA Region & Environment Unit
  18. 18. Thank You ‫شكرا‬