The Quadruple Squeeze –Meeting the dual challenge ofdevelopment and sustainabilityLouise Karlberg, PhD
Dual challenge – environmentand developmentNon-negotiables:• Meeting food requirements – MDG’s• Not exceed critical sustai...
Human growth20/80 dilemmaEcosystems60 % loss dilemmaClimate550/450/350dilemmaSurprise99/1 dilemmaTTheQuadrupleSqueeze
Critical transitions or regime shiftsFrom: Schellnhuber, J., 2007. PIK
ClimateChangeOceanacidificationOzonedepletionGlobalFreshwaterUseRate ofBiodiversityLossBiogeochemicalloading: GlobalN & P ...
The Development Challenge• 850 million malnourished• 1.1 billion poor• 70 % poor live in rural areas anddepend on land/wat...
Water limitations for food production050010001500200025003000350040000 1000 2000 3000 4000Available blue water (m3/cap/yr)...
Conclusions on developmentchallengeHuge need to improve yields in the tropics. Thiscould result in trade-offs:• N- and P- ...
Within the boundaries of the non-negotiables: illustrating opportunitiesand trade-offsAgriculture 20-30% of GHG emissions(...
Some questions for the future• Are current agricultural techniques sufficient tomeet the dual challenge of increased foodp...
Remaining sustainable while developing• Illustrations of TRADE-OFFS and SYNERGIES• Assessments across scales• Assessments ...
The Quadruple Squeeze – Meeting the dual challenge of development and sustainability
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The Quadruple Squeeze – Meeting the dual challenge of development and sustainability

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On Thursday November 4th, 2010 SIANI convened a public seminar to discuss the complex issue of climate change and the linkage between the process behind the Convention on Biodiversity (CBD) and the preparations for the next round of UNFCCC negotiations on climate change impact in Cancun.

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The Quadruple Squeeze – Meeting the dual challenge of development and sustainability

  1. 1. The Quadruple Squeeze –Meeting the dual challenge ofdevelopment and sustainabilityLouise Karlberg, PhD
  2. 2. Dual challenge – environmentand developmentNon-negotiables:• Meeting food requirements – MDG’s• Not exceed critical sustainability thresholdsWhat are the remaining degrees of freedom forhumanity on planet Earth?
  3. 3. Human growth20/80 dilemmaEcosystems60 % loss dilemmaClimate550/450/350dilemmaSurprise99/1 dilemmaTTheQuadrupleSqueeze
  4. 4. Critical transitions or regime shiftsFrom: Schellnhuber, J., 2007. PIK
  5. 5. ClimateChangeOceanacidificationOzonedepletionGlobalFreshwaterUseRate ofBiodiversityLossBiogeochemicalloading: GlobalN & P CyclesAtmosphericAerosolLoadingLandSystemChangeChemicalPollutionPlanetaryBoundaries
  6. 6. The Development Challenge• 850 million malnourished• 1.1 billion poor• 70 % poor live in rural areas anddepend on land/water basedecosystem services• Agriculture a key to povertyalleviation and socio-economicdevelopment• Global change and localenvironmental degradation erodingcapacity to achieve the MDGs• Social and Ecologicalvulnerabilities on the increase• Frequency of environmentalshocks on the increase• Disasters hit vulnerablecommunities hardest• Innovations in management andgovernance give hope
  7. 7. Water limitations for food production050010001500200025003000350040000 1000 2000 3000 4000Available blue water (m3/cap/yr)Totavailablewater(m3/cap/yr)bcdaIncome (2005) Deficit SurplusLow1404 km3/yrREMAINING DEFICITS3790 Mp407 km3/yrFOOD EXPORT477 MpMedium487 km3/yrFOOD IMPORT2120 Mp2680 km3/yrFOOD EXPORT1610 MpHigh259 km3/yrFOOD IMPORT522 Mp876 km3/yrFOOD EXPORT631 MpAssume irrigation expansion andmore crop per dropIs there enough water to produce food?-YES!So, can trade solve the problem?How many people live in low incomecountries?2050 scenario
  8. 8. Conclusions on developmentchallengeHuge need to improve yields in the tropics. Thiscould result in trade-offs:• N- and P- cycles (eutrophication)• Pollution (increased pesticide, herbicide use)• Agricultural land use expansion• Carbon sequestration• Down-stream fresh-water availability (and timing)
  9. 9. Within the boundaries of the non-negotiables: illustrating opportunitiesand trade-offsAgriculture 20-30% of GHG emissions(total antropogenic emissions = 9 Gt/yr)Agricultural soils pot C. seq rate of 0.4-1.2GtC/yr by 2050 (Lal et al)Higher yieldsLower net GHG emissionsLess water downstream
  10. 10. Some questions for the future• Are current agricultural techniques sufficient tomeet the dual challenge of increased foodproduction and sustainability?• How large will the future bioenergy production be,and what are the consequences for foodproduction, other ecosystem services and CCmitigation?• What are the impacts of life-styles (consumptionof commodities, energy, transportation, diets etc) –global distribution
  11. 11. Remaining sustainable while developing• Illustrations of TRADE-OFFS and SYNERGIES• Assessments across scales• Assessments focussing on several sustainability criteria(e.g. nutrients, land-use, biodiversity, carbon and water)• A multi-sectoral approach (e.g. food, feed, fuel, fibre)• Assessments of ecosystem services, livelihoods, resilience,policies and institutions, etc.

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