1

FEATURING

Manish Bapna
Executive Vice President, WRI
Image: Flickr/NA.dir
ECONOMIC RECESSION IS OVER
7%
6%
5%

GDP GROWTH

4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%

-2%
-3%

-4%
2007

Source: IMF, 2013

2008

2009

201...
EMERGING ECONOMIES SLOWING BUT ROBUST
16%
14%

GDP GROWTH

12%
10%
8%
6%
4%

2%
0%
2007
-2%

Source: IMF, 2013

BRAZIL
200...
GLOBAL GDP – GETTING BACK ON TRACK

Real GDP
(2005 dollars)

$100tr
2030

$50tr
$30tr
$15 trillion

1990

1970

Source: U....
THE RISE OF THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS

5 Billion

2 Billion
1 Billion
1990
Source: Reuters, OECD 2010

2010

2030
1.2 billion

100 million

people living on less than
$1.25 per day

children undernourished or
underweight

123 million

1...
UNFINISHED BUSINESS

1.2 Billion

Overweight

Hungry
900 Million
EXPONENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS
THE BIG QUESTION

Can we have economic growth
and tackle poverty and
sustainability at the same time?
SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE?

1 SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE FOOD
FUTURE?

Image: istockphoto
The world needs to close the food gap

69%

INCREASE IN
FOOD CALORIES
TO FEED 9.6
BILLION BY 2050

Source: WRI analysis ba...
The world needs agriculture to support
economic development

Source: World Bank. 2012. World Development Indicators. Acces...
The world needs to reduce agriculture’s
impact on the environment

70%

Water
withdrawals

37%
24%

of Earth’s
landmass

G...
32%

Increased rate of
annual yield
improvement needed
between now and 2050

Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N...
Most studies project net adverse impacts on crop yields
due to climate change
(3° C warmer world)

Source: World Bank. 201...
Menu for a sustainable food future (preliminary)
Consumption






Production

 Sustainably increase crop yields
 Bo...
Reduce food loss and waste along the value chain
(Percent of kcal lost or wasted)

Note: Numbers may not sum to 100 due to...
WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will global warming
start to seriously
affect yields?
2. Will the food loss and
waste movement
build mome...
SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE?

WATER AT
RISK?

2
1 WATER AT RISK?

Image: istockphoto
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM: WATER IS A
GLOBAL RISK
Water
crises
THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY
Aqueduct maps used in
2011 National Intelligence
Estimate on Water
Security requested by
Secr...
WATER SCARCITY IS NEWS
WATER SCARCITY WILL INTENSIFY
People in absolute
water scarcity

1.8 B

Tens of millions will
be displaced in arid,
semi-a...
IN TIMES OF SCARCITY: POOR PEOPLE GET
SQUEEZED
AQUEDUCT WATER RISK ATLAS
WORLD’S LEADING WATER INFORMATION PLATFORM

- 15,000 catchments
- 12 indicators of water risk
- All open data publicly ava...
WATER

39% of irrigated cropland in this region is
located ON IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE
STRESSin areas of water stress concern...
WATER STRESS ON IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE 2025
Change in Water Stress by 2025 in areas with Irrigated Agriculture
(IPCC Scenar...
WATER STRESS AND POWER PLANT CAPACITY NOW
Baseline Water Stress and Power Plants
would see water stress grow 2 to 8 times worse by 2025

WATER STRESS AND POWER PLANT CAPACITY 2025
Change in Water Stress ...
WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will water shortages
begin to seriously affect
agriculture output and
power production?

2. Will governme...
SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE?

WATER AT
RISK?

THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?

3
1 THE YEAR OF
CITIES: H...
CITIES ARE BOOMING

274,000
people added to cities
each day for next 30 years
Image: Harvey Barrison; Source: UN-Habitat
AND URBAN GROWTH IS SPEEDING UP

Time required to reach 2 million:
Rome, Italy
Vienna, Austria
Vancouver, B.C.
Shenzhen, C...
CITIES ARE ECONOMIC DRIVERS

65%

global GDP
growth in
major cities

Image: istockphoto; Source: McKinsey and Company
URBAN POOR LACK ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES
BUT, CITIES BRING CHALLENGES

• 75% of GHG emissions
come from cities
• 1.3 million people die
prematurely due to urban
ai...
BUT, CITIES BRING CHALLENGES

$1 trillion
Projected cost to coastal
cities without adaptation
THIS?

Image: Flickr/RodrigoSolon
OR THIS?

Image: Flikr/Andreas
CITIES: PROBLEM OR SOLUTION?
Per capita emissions of CO2 equivalent (2011)

Source: Cai et al. 2013, Hoornweg et al. 2011,...
WHAT TO WATCH
1. Which way will cities in Asia grow - up or out?

Image: Flickr/DylanPassmore
4
1 RESTORATION:
A 2 BILLION
HECTARE
OPPORTUNITY?

Image: Flickr/USAID Kenya
FORESTS UNDER PRESSURE

50
Image: WRI; Source: Hansen et al.2013, WRI

soccer fields
lost each minute
BUT, THERE’S HOPE…

2bn
Source: Global Partnership on Forest Landscape Restoration

hectares with
opportunities for forest...
SOUTH KOREA: RESTORATION INTO FORESTS
1960

2000

Image: WRI
NIGER: RESTORATION INTO AGROFORESTRY

Pre-1990s

Image: WRI

Today
THE BONN CHALLENGE

150m
hectares under
restoration by 2020

Image: Flickr/CIFOR; Source: WRI
BONN CHALLENGE: BENEFITS

150m RESTORED HECTARES
• $84 billion in economic benefits per year
• 1 gigatons of CO2e stored p...
A GROWING MOVEMENT

BRAZIL - PACTO COSTA RICA EL SALVADOR
(1m ha)
(1m ha)
(1m ha)

Source: WRI

RWANDA
(2m ha)

USA
(15m h...
WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will more countries
make commitments
when they meet in
June 2014?

2. Will a new global
movement for
rest...
SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE?

WATER AT
RISK?

THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?

RESTORATION:
A 2 BILLION
...
PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP

370%
increase in palm oil
production in 20 years

Image: Flickr/carsten_tb; Source: FAO
PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP

50%

of grocery store
products contain
palm oil

Source: National Geographic 2013
SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION

Image: WRI
SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION

Image: WRI
SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION

Image: WRI
SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION

Image: WRI
A NEW APPROACH
A NEW APPROACH

“There is a strong and rapidly
growing demand for traceable,
deforestation-free palm oil, and we
intend to...
SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

TESSO NILO NATIONAL PARK
SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

Image: Jufri/ Greenpeace
WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will better information
expedite the shift to
sustainable palm oil?
2. Will other industries
follow?

Ima...
SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE?

WATER AT
RISK?

THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?

RESTORATION:
A 2 BILLION
...
2013: A YEAR OF POLLUTION

189
days of high pollution
in Beijing in 2013

Image: Flickr/Leniners
POPULAR UNREST

3m

mentions of
“PM 2.5” on SINA
WEIBO, Jan 2013

Image: Flickr/Robert Moposang; Source: The Guardian
A DRIVER OF POLLUTION

50%
Image: WRI; source: EIA 2013

global coal
consumed
by China
TAKING ACTION: AIR

$277bn
budgeted for anti-pollution
measures in the next 5 years

Image: WRI; Source: China Daily
TAKING ACTION: CUTTING COAL

Ban on New Coal Plants
in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou

Image: Flickr/Jonathan Kos-Read; sour...
TAKING ACTION: ENFORCEMENT

8 cities
in China fined by
provincial government
for air pollution

Image: Flickr/Bert Van Dji...
TAKING ACTION: MORE RENEWABLES

12 GW

solar capacity added
in China, the record
for any country in a
single year

Image: ...
WHAT TO WATCH
1. A tipping point on air
pollution?
2. More progress to rein
in coal?
3. Will new renewables
outpace fossil...
SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE?

WATER AT
RISK?

THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?

7
1 UN SUMMIT:
MOMENTUM
O...
NEARLY 100 COUNTRIES WITH GHG GOALS

Source: UNFCCC
THE BRUTAL ARITHMETIC

200
Years it took us to use half
the world’s carbon budget

30
Years it will take us to use the
oth...
UNBURNABLE CARBON
3000

Coal 65%

2500

Two thirds of
reserves
“unburnable”

Gt CO2

2000

1500

1000

Oil 22%
500

Gas 13...
EUROPEAN COMMISSION POST-2020 PROPOSAL

40%

Reduction in GHG
emissions by 2030
below 1990 levels

27%
Image: istockphoto;...
US POST-2020 TARGET

17%
Image: Flickr/The White House; Source: White House

emissions
reduction
by 2020
IPCC REPORTS – MARCH & APRIL

Image: Flickr/Gavin Golden
NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY – SEPTEMBER

Image: WRI
CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT – SEPTEMBER

Image: Flickr/UNClimateChange
PATHWAY TO PARIS

Image: Wikimedia
We are at a pivotal moment

Hyogo Framework for
Action on disaster risk
reduction

Conference on Financing
for Development...
WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will growing evidence
spur public pressure?
2. Will a mid-term US
strategy emerge?
3. Will the EU continu...
SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE?

WATER AT
RISK?

THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?

RESTORATION:
A 2 BILLION
...
A MOMENT OF OPPORTUNITY

• 3 of the 4 largest democracies
to elect heads of government
• 25% of world’s population
• 40% o...
ELECTIONS: BRAZIL

136m
voters in Brazil

Image: Flickr/Dilma Rousseff; Source: IDEA
ELECTIONS: INDIA

780m
voters in India

Image: Flickr/London Summit; Source: IDEA
ELECTIONS: INDONESIA

160m
voters in Indonesia

Image: Flickr/World Economic Forum; Source: IDEA
ELECTIONS: EUROPEAN UNION

Image: Flickr.EEAS
U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS

Image: istockphoto
ELECTIONS MATTER

Image: Wikipedia
WHAT TO WATCH
1. Which way will these
elections go?
2. What will the results tell
us about the future of
economic growth, ...
1

TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE

2

WATER AT RISK?

3

THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL
THEY GROW
RESTORATION: A 2 BILLIO...
Stories to Watch 2014 - Europe
Stories to Watch 2014 - Europe
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Stories to Watch 2014 - Europe

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What stories will impact people and the planet in 2014? On 18 February 2014, Executive Vice President and Managing Director Manish Bapna offered his perspectives on the major global developments in economics, business, natural resources and sustainability in the coming year. The event was hosted by the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The Netherlands. Find out more at http://www.wri.org.

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Stories to Watch 2014 - Europe

  1. 1. 1 FEATURING Manish Bapna Executive Vice President, WRI Image: Flickr/NA.dir
  2. 2. ECONOMIC RECESSION IS OVER 7% 6% 5% GDP GROWTH 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% 2007 Source: IMF, 2013 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
  3. 3. EMERGING ECONOMIES SLOWING BUT ROBUST 16% 14% GDP GROWTH 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2007 -2% Source: IMF, 2013 BRAZIL 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
  4. 4. GLOBAL GDP – GETTING BACK ON TRACK Real GDP (2005 dollars) $100tr 2030 $50tr $30tr $15 trillion 1990 1970 Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service 2010
  5. 5. THE RISE OF THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS 5 Billion 2 Billion 1 Billion 1990 Source: Reuters, OECD 2010 2010 2030
  6. 6. 1.2 billion 100 million people living on less than $1.25 per day children undernourished or underweight 123 million 1 billion youth lacking basic literacy skills lack basic sanitation facilities (UNDP 2013)
  7. 7. UNFINISHED BUSINESS 1.2 Billion Overweight Hungry 900 Million
  8. 8. EXPONENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS
  9. 9. THE BIG QUESTION Can we have economic growth and tackle poverty and sustainability at the same time?
  10. 10. SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE? 1 SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE? Image: istockphoto
  11. 11. The world needs to close the food gap 69% INCREASE IN FOOD CALORIES TO FEED 9.6 BILLION BY 2050 Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
  12. 12. The world needs agriculture to support economic development Source: World Bank. 2012. World Development Indicators. Accessible at: <http://databank.worldbank.org/Data/Home.aspx> (accessed December 13, 2012).
  13. 13. The world needs to reduce agriculture’s impact on the environment 70% Water withdrawals 37% 24% of Earth’s landmass Greenhouse gas emissions (Photo: Oxfam International /Flickr)
  14. 14. 32% Increased rate of annual yield improvement needed between now and 2050 Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
  15. 15. Most studies project net adverse impacts on crop yields due to climate change (3° C warmer world) Source: World Bank. 2010. World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change. Washington, DC: World Bank.
  16. 16. Menu for a sustainable food future (preliminary) Consumption     Production  Sustainably increase crop yields  Boost yields through attentive crop breeding  Improve soil and water management  Expand onto low-carbon degraded lands  Sustainably increase “livestock” productivity  Increase productivity of pasture and grazing lands  Reduce then stabilize wild fish catch  Increase productivity of aquaculture Production methods  Improve livestock feeding efficiency  Increase the efficiency of fertilizer use  Manage rice paddies to reduce emissions Reduce food loss and waste Shift to healthier diets Achieve replacement level fertility Reduce biofuel demand for food crops
  17. 17. Reduce food loss and waste along the value chain (Percent of kcal lost or wasted) Note: Numbers may not sum to 100 due to rounding. Source: WRI analysis based on FAO. 2011. Global food losses and food waste—extent, causes and prevention. Rome: FAO.
  18. 18. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will global warming start to seriously affect yields? 2. Will the food loss and waste movement build momentum?
  19. 19. SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE? WATER AT RISK? 2 1 WATER AT RISK? Image: istockphoto
  20. 20. WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM: WATER IS A GLOBAL RISK Water crises
  21. 21. THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY Aqueduct maps used in 2011 National Intelligence Estimate on Water Security requested by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
  22. 22. WATER SCARCITY IS NEWS
  23. 23. WATER SCARCITY WILL INTENSIFY People in absolute water scarcity 1.8 B Tens of millions will be displaced in arid, semi-arid regions 2025 2022 1.2 B 2014 Source: United Nations 2018
  24. 24. IN TIMES OF SCARCITY: POOR PEOPLE GET SQUEEZED
  25. 25. AQUEDUCT WATER RISK ATLAS
  26. 26. WORLD’S LEADING WATER INFORMATION PLATFORM - 15,000 catchments - 12 indicators of water risk - All open data publicly available - Current estimates and future projections
  27. 27. WATER 39% of irrigated cropland in this region is located ON IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE STRESSin areas of water stress concern Baseline Water Stress in areas with Irrigated Agriculture NOW
  28. 28. WATER STRESS ON IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE 2025 Change in Water Stress by 2025 in areas with Irrigated Agriculture (IPCC Scenario A1B)
  29. 29. WATER STRESS AND POWER PLANT CAPACITY NOW Baseline Water Stress and Power Plants
  30. 30. would see water stress grow 2 to 8 times worse by 2025 WATER STRESS AND POWER PLANT CAPACITY 2025 Change in Water Stress by 2025 and Power Plants (IPCC Scenario A1B)
  31. 31. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will water shortages begin to seriously affect agriculture output and power production? 2. Will governments and companies take aggressive action to reduce water risks?
  32. 32. SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE? WATER AT RISK? THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW? 3 1 THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW? Image: istockphoto
  33. 33. CITIES ARE BOOMING 274,000 people added to cities each day for next 30 years Image: Harvey Barrison; Source: UN-Habitat
  34. 34. AND URBAN GROWTH IS SPEEDING UP Time required to reach 2 million: Rome, Italy Vienna, Austria Vancouver, B.C. Shenzhen, China 2000 years 400 years 115 years 20 years
  35. 35. CITIES ARE ECONOMIC DRIVERS 65% global GDP growth in major cities Image: istockphoto; Source: McKinsey and Company
  36. 36. URBAN POOR LACK ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES
  37. 37. BUT, CITIES BRING CHALLENGES • 75% of GHG emissions come from cities • 1.3 million people die prematurely due to urban air pollution Image: Flickr/PauloFehlauer; Sources: UN-Habitat, UNFCCC, WHO
  38. 38. BUT, CITIES BRING CHALLENGES $1 trillion Projected cost to coastal cities without adaptation
  39. 39. THIS? Image: Flickr/RodrigoSolon
  40. 40. OR THIS? Image: Flikr/Andreas
  41. 41. CITIES: PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? Per capita emissions of CO2 equivalent (2011) Source: Cai et al. 2013, Hoornweg et al. 2011, Olivier et al. 2012
  42. 42. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Which way will cities in Asia grow - up or out? Image: Flickr/DylanPassmore
  43. 43. 4 1 RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY? Image: Flickr/USAID Kenya
  44. 44. FORESTS UNDER PRESSURE 50 Image: WRI; Source: Hansen et al.2013, WRI soccer fields lost each minute
  45. 45. BUT, THERE’S HOPE… 2bn Source: Global Partnership on Forest Landscape Restoration hectares with opportunities for forest landscape restoration
  46. 46. SOUTH KOREA: RESTORATION INTO FORESTS 1960 2000 Image: WRI
  47. 47. NIGER: RESTORATION INTO AGROFORESTRY Pre-1990s Image: WRI Today
  48. 48. THE BONN CHALLENGE 150m hectares under restoration by 2020 Image: Flickr/CIFOR; Source: WRI
  49. 49. BONN CHALLENGE: BENEFITS 150m RESTORED HECTARES • $84 billion in economic benefits per year • 1 gigatons of CO2e stored per year • Biodiversity, cultural and other benefits Image: Flickr/CIFOR; ource: IUCN
  50. 50. A GROWING MOVEMENT BRAZIL - PACTO COSTA RICA EL SALVADOR (1m ha) (1m ha) (1m ha) Source: WRI RWANDA (2m ha) USA (15m ha)
  51. 51. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will more countries make commitments when they meet in June 2014? 2. Will a new global movement for restoration emerge? Image:
  52. 52. SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE? WATER AT RISK? THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW? RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY? SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA? 5 1 SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA? Image: istockphoto
  53. 53. PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP 370% increase in palm oil production in 20 years Image: Flickr/carsten_tb; Source: FAO
  54. 54. PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP 50% of grocery store products contain palm oil Source: National Geographic 2013
  55. 55. SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION Image: WRI
  56. 56. SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION Image: WRI
  57. 57. SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION Image: WRI
  58. 58. SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION Image: WRI
  59. 59. A NEW APPROACH
  60. 60. A NEW APPROACH “There is a strong and rapidly growing demand for traceable, deforestation-free palm oil, and we intend to meet it as a core element of our growth strategy.” –Kuok Khoon Hong, CEO of Wilmar Source: Wilmar Press Release 2013
  61. 61. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
  62. 62. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
  63. 63. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
  64. 64. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
  65. 65. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
  66. 66. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
  67. 67. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH TESSO NILO NATIONAL PARK
  68. 68. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH Image: Jufri/ Greenpeace
  69. 69. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will better information expedite the shift to sustainable palm oil? 2. Will other industries follow? Image: istockphoto
  70. 70. SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE? WATER AT RISK? THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW? RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY? 6 CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR? Image: istockphoto SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA? CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR?
  71. 71. 2013: A YEAR OF POLLUTION 189 days of high pollution in Beijing in 2013 Image: Flickr/Leniners
  72. 72. POPULAR UNREST 3m mentions of “PM 2.5” on SINA WEIBO, Jan 2013 Image: Flickr/Robert Moposang; Source: The Guardian
  73. 73. A DRIVER OF POLLUTION 50% Image: WRI; source: EIA 2013 global coal consumed by China
  74. 74. TAKING ACTION: AIR $277bn budgeted for anti-pollution measures in the next 5 years Image: WRI; Source: China Daily
  75. 75. TAKING ACTION: CUTTING COAL Ban on New Coal Plants in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou Image: Flickr/Jonathan Kos-Read; source: ChinaFAQs
  76. 76. TAKING ACTION: ENFORCEMENT 8 cities in China fined by provincial government for air pollution Image: Flickr/Bert Van Djik; Source: Xinhua
  77. 77. TAKING ACTION: MORE RENEWABLES 12 GW solar capacity added in China, the record for any country in a single year Image: Wikimedia: Bloomberg
  78. 78. WHAT TO WATCH 1. A tipping point on air pollution? 2. More progress to rein in coal? 3. Will new renewables outpace fossil fuels? Image: WRI
  79. 79. SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE? WATER AT RISK? THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW? 7 1 UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE? Image: Wikimedia istockphoto RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY? SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA? CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR? UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE?
  80. 80. NEARLY 100 COUNTRIES WITH GHG GOALS Source: UNFCCC
  81. 81. THE BRUTAL ARITHMETIC 200 Years it took us to use half the world’s carbon budget 30 Years it will take us to use the other half at current rate To stay within 2° of warming, emissions should peak by 2020
  82. 82. UNBURNABLE CARBON 3000 Coal 65% 2500 Two thirds of reserves “unburnable” Gt CO2 2000 1500 1000 Oil 22% 500 Gas 13% 0 Budget Source: Rystad Energy, Carbon Tracker Proven reserves
  83. 83. EUROPEAN COMMISSION POST-2020 PROPOSAL 40% Reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 below 1990 levels 27% Image: istockphoto; Source: UCS Renewable energy across EU by 2030
  84. 84. US POST-2020 TARGET 17% Image: Flickr/The White House; Source: White House emissions reduction by 2020
  85. 85. IPCC REPORTS – MARCH & APRIL Image: Flickr/Gavin Golden
  86. 86. NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY – SEPTEMBER Image: WRI
  87. 87. CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT – SEPTEMBER Image: Flickr/UNClimateChange
  88. 88. PATHWAY TO PARIS Image: Wikimedia
  89. 89. We are at a pivotal moment Hyogo Framework for Action on disaster risk reduction Conference on Financing for Development Post-2015 Development Framework UNFCCC COP 21 2015
  90. 90. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will growing evidence spur public pressure? 2. Will a mid-term US strategy emerge? 3. Will the EU continue to lead? Image: Flickr/Philip Roeland
  91. 91. SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE? WATER AT RISK? THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW? RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY? SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA? 1 8 A BILLION VOTERS: WHICH DIRECTION WILL THEY CHOOSE? Image: istockphoto CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR? UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE? A BILLION VOTERS: WHICH DIRECTION WILL THEY CHOOSE?
  92. 92. A MOMENT OF OPPORTUNITY • 3 of the 4 largest democracies to elect heads of government • 25% of world’s population • 40% of the global poor Image: istockphoto
  93. 93. ELECTIONS: BRAZIL 136m voters in Brazil Image: Flickr/Dilma Rousseff; Source: IDEA
  94. 94. ELECTIONS: INDIA 780m voters in India Image: Flickr/London Summit; Source: IDEA
  95. 95. ELECTIONS: INDONESIA 160m voters in Indonesia Image: Flickr/World Economic Forum; Source: IDEA
  96. 96. ELECTIONS: EUROPEAN UNION Image: Flickr.EEAS
  97. 97. U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS Image: istockphoto
  98. 98. ELECTIONS MATTER Image: Wikipedia
  99. 99. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Which way will these elections go? 2. What will the results tell us about the future of economic growth, poverty and sustainability? Image: Flickr/Al_Jazeera_English
  100. 100. 1 TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE 2 WATER AT RISK? 3 THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY? 4 5 SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA? 6 CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR? 7 UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE? 8 A BILLION VOTERS: WHICH DIRECTION WILL THEY CHOOSE?

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