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Fernandes - Towards Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: Synergies and Trade-offs

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Erick Fernandes (World Bank) Towards climate change adaptation and mitigation: Synergies and trade-offs (presentation from CCAFS Science Workshop, December 2010)

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Fernandes - Towards Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: Synergies and Trade-offs

  1. 1.  Towards  Climate  Change  Adap4on  and  Mi4ga4on:   Synergies  and  Trade-­‐offs       Erick CM Fernandes Adviser, Natural Resource Management and Climate Change, [LCSAR] The World Bank, Washington DC.
  2. 2. 75%  of  the  world’s  poor  are  rural  and   most  are  involved  in  farming   In  the  21st  century,  agriculture  remains  fundamental  for  poverty  reduc4on,   economic  growth  and  environmental  sustainability  (WDR  2008)  Growing  popula4on  to  9  billion  by  2050    Agricultural  produc4vity  needs  to  grow  by  ~2%  per  yr   Source:  World  Bank,  WDR  2008   efernandes@worldbank.org  
  3. 3. CC  Impacts  on  Ag  and  Food  Security  •  Agriculture  is  extremely  vulnerable  to  climate  change.    •  Higher  temperatures  eventually  reduce  yields  of  desirable  crops   while  encouraging  weed  and  pest  prolifera4on.    •  Changes  in  precipita4on  paYerns  increase  the  likelihood  of  short-­‐ run  crop  failures  and  long-­‐run  produc4on  declines.    •  Although  there  will  be  gains  in  some  crops  in  some  regions  of  the   world,  the  overall  impacts  of  climate  change  on  agriculture  are   expected  to  be  nega4ve,  threatening  global  food  security.    •  Popula4ons  in  the  developing  world,  which  are  already  vulnerable   and  food  insecure,  are  likely  to  be  the  most  seriously  affected.    •  In  2005,  nearly  half  of  the  economically  ac4ve  popula4on  in   developing  countries—2.5  billion  people—relied  on  agriculture  for   its  livelihood.    •  Today,  75  percent  of  the  world’s  poor  live  in  rural  areas.  
  4. 4. Human  well-­‐being  will  be  nega.vely  affected  by   climate  change  •  In  developing  countries,  climate  change  will  cause  yield  declines  for  the  most   important  crops.  South  Asia  will  be  par4cularly  hard  hit.    •  Climate  change  will  result  in  addi.onal  price  increases  for  the  most  important   agricultural  crops–rice,  wheat,  maize,  and  soybeans.  Higher  feed  prices  will  result   in  higher  meat  prices.  As  a  result,  climate  change  will  reduce  the  growth  in  meat   consump4on  slightly  and  cause  a  more  substan4al  fall  in  cereals  consump4on.  •  Calorie  availability  in  2050  will  not  only  be  lower  than  in  the  no–climate-­‐change   scenario—it  will  actually  decline  rela.ve  to  2000  levels  throughout  the  developing   world.  •  By  2050,  the  decline  in  calorie  availability  will  increase  child  malnutri.on  by  20  %   rela4ve  to  a  world  with  no  climate  change.  Climate  change  will  eliminate  much  of   the  improvement  in  child  malnourishment  levels  that  would  occur  with  no  climate   change.  •  Thus,  aggressive  agricultural  produc.vity  investments  of  US$7.1–7.3  billion  are   needed  to  raise  calorie  consump4on  enough  to  offset  the  nega4ve  impacts  of   climate  change  on  the  health  and  well-­‐being  of  children.       IFPRI,  2009  
  5. 5. %  change  in  runoff  by  2050  •  Many  of  the  major  “food-­‐bowls”  of  the  world  are  projected  to  become   significantly  drier  •  Globally  there  will  be  more  precipita.on  •  Higher  temperatures  will  tend  to  reduce  run  off  •  A  few  important  areas  drier  (Mediterranean,  southern  South  America,  northern   Brazil,  west  and  south  Africa)  
  6. 6. Projected  Change  in  Frequency  of  Extreme  Events  in  next  20  years  “Minnesota’s  state  climatologist,  Jim  Zandlo,  has  concluded  that  no  fewer  than  three  “thousand-­‐year  rains”  have  occurred  in  the  past  seven  years  in  our  part  of  the  state.”  Jack  Hedin,  farmer  southern  Minn  –  op  ed  piece  in  NY  Times,  Nov  27,  2010  
  7. 7. Tipping  Elements  in  the  Earth  System  (Lenton,  Held,  Kriegler,  Hall,  Lucht,  Rahmstorf,  Schellnhuber,  NATURE,  2008)  
  8. 8. Examples  of  Local  to  Global  Impacts  of   Land  Cover  and  Land  Use  Changes   Impac4ng  and  Impacted  by     Climate  Variability  and  Change  
  9. 9. Lake  Chad   Bodelle  depression  
  10. 10. Local  Impacts  of  Dust   Europe   North  America   Dust  from  the   Bodelle  depression   around  shrinking   Lake  Chad   South  America   Global  Impacts  of  Dust  NASA Earth Observatory
  11. 11. Smoke/dust  inhibits  local  rainfall  Impact  from  Indonesian  Fire  Stretching  to  Africa  
  12. 12. Far  Field  Impacts  of  extensive  agriculture   Impacts  of  Smoke?    •  Severe  nega4ve  impacts  on  human  health  •  Reduced  local  rainfall  &  increased  lightning!  •  Nega4ve  impacts  on  biodiversity  (most   pollinator  species  “perish  or  flee”)  •  Reduc4on  in  photosynthesis  and  Net   Primary  Produc4vity  (NPP)!  
  13. 13. Dust     Congo  Amazon   Rainforest  Rainforest   Poten.al  Ecosystem  &  Livelihood  Threats   efernandes@worldbank.org  
  14. 14. CC  Adapta.on-­‐Mi.ga.on  &  Integrated  NRM  •  Market  and  policy  failures  •  Externali4es  and  inter-­‐linkages  (land  values?)  •  Long  term  dynamics  (mul4ple  asset  poroolios!)  •  Decisions  across  mul4ple  ac4vi4es   –  Baselines  (adequate  for  land  and  linked  assets?)   –  Evalua4on  approach  given  baselines  and  dynamics   –  What  hope  for  real  4me  evalua4on  &  decisions?   –  Mul4ple  agencies  …seamless  data  interface??  •  Climate  Change  &  Resilience   –  Mi4ga4on  &  Adapta4on  …feedback  on  (failed?)  markets!!   –  Spa4al  data,  spa4al  analysis,  differen4al  synergies/tradeoffs  
  15. 15. Corn  domes4cated  in  Mexico  9000  yrs  ago!  –   today  a  global  crop  backed  by  science!!   What  future  for  our  best  Crops?   In  2010,  819  million  tons  of  corn  were  produced  around  the  world,  and  the   U.S.  Midwest  produced  more  than  300  million  tons  (cit.  USDA),     Corn,  wheat,  and  rice  provide  60  percent  of  the  world’s  energy  intake.   Source:  NASA  Earth  Observatory,  Nov.  27,  2010  
  16. 16. Towards  a  Strategic  Framework  on   Development  for  Climate  Change  (SFDCC)  Climate  change  “is  a  development,  economic,  and  investment  challenge.  It  offers  an  opportunity  for  economic  and  social  transformaKon  that  can  lead  to  an  inclusive  and  sustainable  globalizaKon.  That  is  why  addressing  climate  change  is  a  criKcal  pillar  of  the  development  agenda.”       Robert  Zoellick  -­‐  United  NaKons  Climate  Change  Conference  in   Bali,  Indonesia,  December  2007    
  17. 17. World  Development  Reports    
  18. 18. Why  climate  change  may  provide  the  s.mulus  for  change  and  encourage  socie.es  to  adopt  new  techniques,  and  undertake  difficult  reforms:   1.  Climate  change  will  increase  food  prices   2.    Rising  energy  prices  might  provide  the  s4mulus  for   reforms  in  water  since  they  will  increase  costs  of   pumping/transporta4on  and  thus  put  a  premium  on   efficient  alloca4on     3.  A  carbon  market  might  buy-­‐down  risk  to  farmers  and   help  aggregate  a  large  number  of  small  disparate   ac4ons.  It  might  give  the  right  incen4ves  to  protect  the   natural  systems  on  which  our  agriculture  and  much  else   depends   WDR  2010:  DEVELOPMENT  IN  A  CHANGING  CLIMATE  
  19. 19. Sources  and  uses  of  grain  19  
  20. 20. The  Prevalence  of  Food  Inadequacy  (PFI)     focuses  on  major  micronutrient  challenges     Vitamin  A  Deficiency  (VAD),  Iodine  Deficiency  Disorder  (IDDs),  Iron  Deficiency  Anemia  (IDA) Source: The Regional Institute, Australia 2004, based on USAID data20  
  21. 21. Basis  for  Food  Security  in  an     Uncertain  Future?  •  The  world  has  over  50  000  edible  plants.  Just  three  of   them,  rice,  maize  and  wheat,  provide  60  percent  of  the   worlds  food  energy  intake.  Just  15  crop  plants  provide   90  percent  of  the  worlds  food  energy  intake,  with   three  rice,  maize  and  wheat  -­‐  making  up  two-­‐thirds  of   this.    •  Although  there  are  over  10  000  species  in  the   Gramineae  (cereal)  family,  few  have  been  widely   introduced  into  cul4va4on  over  the  past  2  000  years.   Rice  feeds  almost  half  of  humanity.  •  Large,  untapped  poten4al  to  harness  improved   nutrient  sources  from  adapted  annual  and  perennial   food  but  as  yet  unimproved  species  (e.g.  quinoa,   amaranth,  peach  palm).   efernandes@worldbank.org  
  22. 22. Food  Security  Paradigms!    Improved,  Produc4vity  Enhancing  Technologies  Accessible  to  Farmers  Cropping  System  Diversifica4on  for  risk  minimiza4on  Enhanced  Environmental  Services  of  agricultural  landscapes   efernandes@worldbank.org  
  23. 23. The  Agricultural  Landscape  is  Part  of  the  Challenge  and   Part  of  the  Solu.on  Sources  of  Global  Greenhouse  Gas  Emissions  (Data  from  CAIT,  WRI)   Transporta.on     Manufacturing  &   12%   Construc.on     11%   Agricultural  Landscapes  have  the   Electricity  &  Heat   Other  Energy   27%   poten.al,  through  beeer   Sector     13%   management  to  reduce  up  to  88%  of   Waste     3%   agriculture’s  total  annual  emissions  -­‐   Industrial  Agriculture Processes     70%  of  this  from  developing   3%   Land-­‐Use   Change  &   countries.     Forestry   31%    NRM  can  improve  the  produc.vity  and  resilience  of   agricultural  landscapes  and  increase  food  security  while   reducing  greenhouse  gas  emissions.  
  24. 24. Good  Science-­‐Based  Tech  for  Accessing  Land…  but  absent  tenure,  ins4tu4ons,  appropriate  policies?   efernandes@worldbank.org  
  25. 25. Crop  produc4on…  absent  local  knowledge,  extension,  appropriate  technologies,  markets??       efernandes@worldbank.org  
  26. 26. Ag  Mi.ga.on  and  Adapta.on   Are  linked  –>  Triple  Dividend  Mi4ga4on  in  agriculture  (reduce  emissions)  could  have  either:    •  (a)  posi.ve  adapta.on  consequences  (such  as  carbon  sequestra4on   projects  with  posi4ve  drought  preparedness  aspects)  or    •  (b)  nega.ve  adapta.on  consequences  (for  example,  if  heavy  dependence   on  biomass  energy    encourages    large-­‐scale  reforesta4on  with  fast-­‐growing   species    and  reduces  hydrological  flows  or  increases  the  sensi4vity  of   energy  supply  to  clima4c  extremes).  Adapta4on  (survive  shocks)  -­‐driven  ac4ons  also  have  both    •  (a)  posi.ve  mi.ga.on  consequences  (as  when  residue  returned  to  fields   to  improve    nutrient  and  water-­‐holding  capacity  also  sequesters  carbon)  or  •  (b)  nega.ve  mi.ga.on  consequences  (for  example,  an  increased  use  of   nitrogen  fer4lizer  to  overcome  falling  yield  that  leads  to  increased  nitrous   oxide  emissions).  Improved  and  sustainable  Ag  Produc4vity!!  
  27. 27. Reducing  pressures  on  land  and  water  requires  •  Measures  to  increase  the  produc4vity  of  land  and  water   (Adapta4on)  •  Measures  to  protect  land,  water  and  biological  resources  from   overexploita4on  (Mi4ga4on)  •  Ac4ons  to  ensure  that  trade  can  smooth  consump4on  between   areas  of  surplus  and  areas  of  deficit  (Adapta4on)  •  Informa4on  to  help  people  at  all  levels  manage  resources  beYer   WDR  2010:  DEVELOPMENT  IN  A  CHANGING  CLIMATE  
  28. 28. Suggested  Ac.ons    Accelerate  smallholder  produc.vity  increases  for  food  security    Enhance  sustainability  and  environmental  services  from   agriculture  &  market  mechanisms  for  payments  for   environmental  services    Pursue  mul.ple  pathways  out  of  poverty:  smallholder  farming,   farm  labor  market,  rural  non-­‐farm  employment,  migra4on    Improve  the  quality  of  governance  in  sustainable  land  use   management  at  local,  na4onal,  and  global  levels.  
  29. 29. Integrated  Natural  Resource  Management  •  What  is  it?..more  than  assets,  factor  markets,   ins4tu4ons?  •  Mul4ple  roles    &  contexts  of  land  use…     –  NRM  and  ecosystem  services  (local  to  global  footprints) ….water?   –  Produc4on  landscapes  (Rural,  Peri-­‐urban,  Urban:  issues  &   linkages)…………..water??   –  Climate  impacts  +/-­‐  (local,  na4onal,  regional  and  short  to  long   term)……………………….WATER!!   –  Governance  (decentraliza4on,  indigenous,  poor  and  power,   new  business  –  land  acquisi4ons)……WATER!!!  
  30. 30. Payment  for  Environmental  Services   (PES)  •  A  mechanism  to  improve  the  provision  of   indirect  environmental  services  in  which:   –  Those  who  provide  environmental  services  get   paid  for  doing  so  (‘provider  gets’)     –  Those  who  benefit  from  environmental  services   pay  for  their  provision  (‘user  pays’)     –  Payments  are  condi4onal     –  Par4cipa4on  is  voluntary    
  31. 31. Why    &  How  -­‐>  PES?  Generates  it’s  own  financing:    •  Brings  new  financing  not  previously  available  for  conserva4on    Efficient:    •  Focuses  efforts  where  benefits  of  conserva4on  highest  and   costs  lowest    Poten4ally  very  sustainable:  Not  based  on  whims  of  donors,   NGOs,  but  self-­‐interest  of  service  users  and  providers    For  this  to  work,  need  to:    •  Base  payments  to  providers  on  payments  by  users    •  Actually  deliver  services:  ge{ng  the  science  right  is  cri4cal    •  Tailor  mechanism  to  specific  local  condi4ons   Source:  Pagiola,  S.  2006  
  32. 32. World  Bank  Support  to  PES   Source:  Pagiola,  S.  2006  
  33. 33. Fix  the  Billion  Degraded  ha!!  Landscape  Restora.on:  Reforesta.on  &  Afforesta.on   (WRI,  2010)  
  34. 34. Understand  &  Build  Upon  Local  Knowledge  
  35. 35. Examples  of  World  Bank  support  to  Adapta4on-­‐ Mi4ga4on  Ac4ons  in  Development  Programs     Eastern  Anatolia  Watersheds,   Turkey  
  36. 36. Tradi4onal  Grazing  •  Access  to  common  grazing   land  •  Impact  on  regenera4on  of   local  forests/woodland    •  Community-­‐driven   watershed  planning  and   management  to  ensure   sustainability  of   rehabilita4on  impacts  
  37. 37. Large  Scale  Applica4on  of  Community  Driven  “Land  &  Water”  Good   Prac4ce   Photo:efernandes@worldbank.org  
  38. 38. Community  Adop4on  of  Controlled  Grazing  Cri4cal  to   Landscape  Recovery   Photo:efernandes@worldbank.org  
  39. 39. Water  Flows  &  Water  Quality  Impacts  of  Landscape  Recovery     Photo:efernandes@worldbank.org  
  40. 40. Examples  of  World  Bank  support  to  Adapta4on-­‐ Mi4ga4on  Ac4ons  in  Development  Programs    Loess  Plateau  –  China:    From  Degraded  to  Produc4ve  &   Resilient  Landscapes   Photo:  efernandes@worldbank.org  
  41. 41. Loess  Plateau  –  China:    From  Degraded  to  Produc4ve  &   Resilient  Landscapes   Photo:  efernandes@worldbank.org  
  42. 42. Loess  Plateau  –  China:    From  Degraded  to  Produc4ve  &   Resilient  Landscapes   Photo:  efernandes@worldbank.org  
  43. 43. Loess  Plateau  –  China:    From  Degraded  to  Produc4ve  &   Resilient  Landscapes   Photo:  efernandes@worldbank.org  
  44. 44. Loess  Plateau  –  China:    From  Degraded  to  Produc4ve  &   Resilient  Landscapes   Photo:  efernandes@worldbank.org  
  45. 45. Rwanda  –  Really  Small  Farms  w  Landscape  Impacts   Photo:  efernandes@worldbank.org  
  46. 46. Madagascar:  Crop  Residue  &  Manure  Management     for  Reduced  Nitrogen  Losses  Pit  to  capture  Crop  Residues  +  Manure   End  of  Cropping  season  –   Beginning  of  Cropping   pit  full   Season  –  pit  empty   Nitrogen-­‐ rich   compost   back  to   fields   Photos:  efernandes@worldbank.org  
  47. 47. Climate  Change,  Livelihoods  &  Risk  Important  to  assess  &  address:  •   Legal  risk    •   Governance  risks  •   Financial  risks  
  48. 48. Example  of  a  Synergy-­‐Tradeoff  Synthesis  Matrix     for  Land  Use  Types  (Source:  ASB  Program)  
  49. 49. Future  of  REDD+  Absent  Sustainable   Ag  Component??   Tradeoff:  Need  to  harness  Forest  Mi.ga.on  –    Ag  Adapta.on  Synergies   e.g.  In  the  Amazon,  Forest  Fires  increased  by  ~60%  in  Areas  of  decreased  deforesta4on!!  “Reducing  emissions  from  deforesta4on  and  degrada4on  (REDD)  may  curb  carbon  emissions,  but  the  consequences  for  fire  hazard  are  poorly  understood…  In  the  Brazilian  Amazon,  fire  occurrence  increased  in  59%  of  the  area  that  has  experienced  reduced  deforesta4on  rates.    fire-­‐free,  agricultural  land-­‐management  can  substan4ally  reduce  fire  incidence  by  as  much  as  69%.  “  If  sustainable  fire-­‐free  agricultural  land-­‐management  (e.g.  AFOLU)  areas  is  not  adopted  alongside  the  REDD  mechanism,  then  the  carbon  savings  achieved  by  avoiding  deforesta4on  may  be  par4ally  negated  by  increased  emissions  from  fires  origina4ng  on  farms.    [Aragão  and  Shimabukuro,  Science  June  2010]    
  50. 50. The Big Picture – Optimizing synergies and tradeoffs at the landscape scales – Hydrology!Source:  Calder,  2005   efernandes@worldbank.org  
  51. 51. Optimizing synergies and tradeoffs from field to landscape scales   Example  of  a  Cross-­‐Sector   Measurement  and   Modeling  Approach  from   Bhutan  
  52. 52. DYNAMIC  LANDSCAPE  MANAGEMENT   Synergies  &  Tradeoffs   Photo:  efernandes@worldbank.org  
  53. 53. Photo:  efernandes@worldbank.org  
  54. 54. Rs   RL   Es   E1   S   L   tG   E  y  0   R  1   Q  2   Q   B   Evapotranspiratio n Source:  Richey,  J.  2010  
  55. 55. Provide improved platforms and tools for MRV of Carbon &GHG,vegetation and landcover, digital hydrology and biodiversity. Support/provide community assessment and monitoring ofmultiple ecosystem services Equip agencies with tools to evaluate environmental conditions,particularly in a changing world. Support to regions which are internally data limited , andconstrained by band-width (literally, but especially capacity)
  56. 56. Issues of concern (C stocks, dynamics, services) are intrinsically linked, in a geospatial, scaled world (where mass is conserved) Data from multiple sources can serve to constrain, not confuse Embedded models that couple sector information layers, integrate key drivers, and “bring data to life.” Capable of evaluating multiple options and scenarios, what-if, and sowhat?” To be relevant, must can convey information in accessible, evencompelling , manner, to multiple audiences .
  57. 57. To enable a functional DIF - •  Base data layers; •  Directed data layers, focused on synthetic objectives; •  Geospatially-explicit, process-based, cross-sector simulation models (requiring data from the directed data layers). •  Facilitated input/output (including visualizations); •  Decision support system and scenario testing capabilities.
  58. 58. Hydrological  Modeling   Distributed  Hydrology  Soil  Vegeta.on  Variable  Infiltra.on  Capacity  (VIC)       Model  (DHSVM)   Photo:  efernandes@worldbank.org  
  59. 59. Simula4ng  evapotranspira4on  (ET)  from  local  to   na4onal  scales  using  earth  systems  models   Source:  J.  Richey,  U.  of  Washington  
  60. 60. CC-­‐related  Ac4on  Steps  (1)  •  Design  and  implement  good  overall  development   policies  and  programs  -­‐  the  best  climate-­‐change   adapta4on  investments.  •  Increase  investments  in  agricultural  produc4vity.   Even  without  climate  change,  a  major  challenge  is   to  meet  the  demands  of  9  billion  by  2050  •  Reinvigorate  na4onal  research  and  extension   programs  and  support  partnerships  (rural  with   research,  public  with  private,    
  61. 61. CC-­‐related  Ac4ons  (2)  •  Improve  global  data  collec4on,  dissemina4on,   and  analysis  on  the  spa4al  nature  of  agriculture   need  to  be  strengthened.    •  Recognize  that  enhanced  food  security  and   climate-­‐change  adapta4on  go  hand  in  hand.    •  Support  community-­‐based  adapta4on  strategies.   -­‐  strengthen  their  capacity  to  cope  with  disasters,   improve  their  natural  resource  management   skills,  and  diversify  their    livelihoods.  
  62. 62. Pro-­‐Poor  Instruments  •  Integrated  Land  &  Water  Management  (Soil  carbon,   avoided  deforesta4on,  Rehabilita4on  of  degraded   lands)  •  Capacity  strengthening  (regional,  na4onal,  local)  •  Methodologies  and  transac4on  costs   –  New  science  and  new  technologies   –  Improved  temporal  and  spa4al  resolu4on   –  BeYer  handle  on  assessing  synergies  and  tradeoffs   –  Empowering  communi4es  with  knowledge  and  access  to   technologies  (early  warning,  decision  support,  reloca4on,   infrastructure…)  
  63. 63. World  Bank  CC-­‐related  Lending  Results  •  Climate  proofing  of  the  development  poroolio:  In  fiscal  year  2010,   88  percent  of  all  country  strategies  discussed  at  Board  mee4ngs   substan4vely  addressed  climate-­‐related  issues,  reflec4ng  a  steady   growing  trend  (up  from  15  percent  in  2000-­‐05,  32  percent  in  2007,   and  63  percent  in  2009).  •  Making  development  climate  resilient  has  emerged  as  a  major   theme  in  suppor4ng  poverty  reduc4on  and  economic  growth  in   Sub-­‐Saharan  Africa.  From  addressing  drought  risk  in  Ethiopia   (second  phase  US$175  million)  to  watershed  management  in  Kenya   and  Malawi  (US$75.5  million)  •  The  La4n  America  and  the  Caribbean  Region’s  poroolio  includes   170  ac4vi4es  for  just  under  US$3  billion  in  adapta4on  and   mi4ga4on;  encompassing  regional  studies,  country  assessments,   IBRD  investment,  and  development  policy  lending    •   There  is  a  new  genera4on  of  lending  opera4ons  that  address  policy   and  ins4tu4onal  needs  to  tackle  climate  change.  Over  US$7.7  billion   was  provided  in  such  Development  Policy  Opera4ons  addressing   climate  change  considera4ons  to  Mexico,  Brazil,  Turkey,  Morocco   and  Indonesia.    
  64. 64. Climate  Investment  Funds  •  Deploying  the  Climate  Investment  Funds  (CIF),  a  collabora4ve  effort   among  five  mul4lateral  development  banks,  developed  and  developing   countries,  and  a  broad  range  of  stakeholders:   –  With  over  US$6  billion  in  pledges,  the  CIF  have  s4mulated  innova4ve   work  in  more  than  40  countries  in  renewable  energy  and  other  low-­‐ carbon  technologies,  climate-­‐resilience  and  forestry.  Fourteen   Investment  Plans  have  been  endorsed  under  the  CIF  Clean  Technology   Fund  (CTF),  for  a  total  of  US$4.6  billion,  leveraging  about  US$37  billion   in  addi4onal  investment  in  renewable  energy,  energy  efficiency  and   transporta4on.   –  The  Pilot  Program  for  Climate  Resilience  (PPCR)  approved  in  November   2008,  raised  US$1  billion,  iden4fied  nine  pilot  countries  and  two   regions,  and  began  disbursing  funds  in  mid-­‐2010.       –  The  other  two  programs  under  the  CIF  Strategic  Climate  Fund  (SCF),     •  the  Forest  Investment  Program  (US$602  million  in  pledges)  and     •  the  Program  for  Scaling  Up  Renewable  Energy  in  Low  Income   Countries  (US$323  million  in  pledges),  have  now  selected  pilot   countries.  
  65. 65. Mobilizing  Finance  &  Markets  Mobilizing  and  facilita.ng  client  access  to  mul.ple  sources  of  finance   for  adapta.on,  including  catastrophe  risk  financing:  •  Weather  Deriva4ves  to  protect  farmers  against  adverse  weather   events.    IBRD  intermediated  first  weather  deriva4ve  in  a  developing   country:  in  2008/09,  about  2,600  farmers  in  Malawi  were  insured   (US$2.5  million).    Other  examples  include  Cameroon,  India  and   Nicaragua  (crop-­‐related)  and  Mongolia  and  Ethiopia  (livestock).  •  Catastrophe  Deferred  Drawdown  Op4on  (CAT  DDO),  a  con4ngent   loan  to  provide  immediate  liquidity  up  to  US$500  million  to  IBRD   countries.    Colombia  and  Costa  Rica  requested  CAT-­‐DDOs  in   2008―for  US$150  million  and  US$65  million.    Guatemala  used  a   Cat  DDO  approved  in  2010  to  finance  reconstruc4on  and  other   expenses  a„er  two  major  natural  disasters  struck  that  year  (US$85   million).      •  www.climatefinanceop4ons.org  
  66. 66. Innova.ons  in  carbon  finance  •  The  Forest  Carbon  Partnership  Facility  (FCPF),  to   assist  developing  countries  in  reducing  emissions   from  deforesta4on  and  forest  degrada4on  as  well   as  through  sustainable  forest  management  (REDD +)  (€165  million).  The  FCPF  has  37  par4cipa4ng   countries,  of  which  11  have  already  received   grant  alloca4ons  for  readiness  work.  •  The  Carbon  Partnership  Facility  (CPF),   opera4onal  in  May  2010  with  Euro  100  million,   aims  to  scale  up  the  use  of  carbon  finance  to   accelerate  mi4ga4on  ac4vi4es  post  2012.  
  67. 67. Green  Bonds  for  Adapta4on  &  Mi4ga4on   •  The  World  Bank  raised  US$1.6  billion  Green  Bonds  (25  issues  in  16   currencies),  specifically  to  support  adapta4on  and  mi4ga4on   ac4vi4es  in  client  countries.    This  builds  on  the  earlier  Cer4fied   Emissions  Reduc4on  (CER)-­‐linked  “COOL"  bonds  (a  total  of  US$31.5   million  was  raised  through  two  bonds  with  coupons  4ed  to  CERs   generated  by  specified  GHG-­‐reducing  projects  in  China  and   Malaysia)  and  notes  linked  to  special  equity  indices  that  support   clean  energy  and/or  other  eco-­‐friendly  sectors  (approximately  US $856  million  was  raised  through  five  transac4ons).   •  The  IFC  partnered  with  Standard  &  Poors  to  develop  the  first   Global  Emerging  Market  Carbon  Efficiency  Index.  Launched  in   December  2009  at  COP-­‐15  in  Copenhagen,  the  new  index  aims  to   encourage  carbon-­‐based  compe44on  among  emerging-­‐market   companies  and  give  carbon-­‐efficient  companies  access  to  long-­‐term   investors.    
  68. 68. On-­‐Going  WBG  Adapta.on  &  Mi.ga.on     Opera.ons  Empowering  local  ins4tu4ons  and  communi4es  with  geospa4al  and  4me  referenced  knowledge,  tools  and  incen4ves  for:  • Conserving,  beYer  understanding,  and  using  tradi4onal  and  cultural  knowledge.  • Sustainable  Intensifica4on  of  Agriculture  and  Improved  NRM  approaches,    •   Mainstreaming  Adapta4on  and  Mi4ga4on  in  Development      • Prepara4on  to  deal  with  climate  variability,  extreme  events,  and  disaster    • Objec4ve  results-­‐based  monitoring  based  on  quan4ta4ve  indicators,  and  •   BeYer  and  more  resilient  agriculture  and  rural  livelihoods.    
  69. 69. Challenges/Opportuni4es  •  The  WBG  is  complemen4ng  development  assistance  with   specialized  grant-­‐based  resources  to  address  addi4onal  climate   risks.  •   The  inclusion  of  agriculture  in  the  post  2012  agreement  on   climate  change  is  important  due  to  strong  linkages  with  food   security  and  poverty  allevia4on.  BeYer  understanding  of   methodologies  on  carbon  soil  management,  emission  accoun4ng   and  MRV  is  needed.    •  Capturing  Co-­‐benefits  ―  economic,  social,  environment,  local  to   global.  More  work  needed  to  capture  the  urban,  water,  natural   resource  management,  and  transport  co-­‐benefits.    •  Evolving  the  green  growth  agenda  in  agriculture  and  other   sectors.  Climate  change  policy  can  be  linked  to  development  to   facilitate  low  carbon  growth.    
  70. 70. Suggestions for CCAFS Action•  CCAFS comparative advantage is to summarize, synthesize, and make accessible the considerable CGIAR “inter agroecological zone” experiences on improved technologies for adaptation and mitigation. See for example the modest WBG attempt HERE•  Organize and couple the above agriculture and natural resource management (NRM) components it to climate model (GCM, RCM) projections and higher resolution Landuse, hydrology, NRM models to provide Decision Support to Policy Makers. (<<-click)•  Synthesize the considerable empirical measurements and modelling outputs available to provide “synergy-tradeoff matrices” for major agroecozones and relevant landscape positions. The lack of “spatially relevant syntheses” is currently a major knowledge gap for harnessing DYNAMIC adaptation-mitigation synergies and minimizing tradeoffs in agroecosystems in the face of climate change.
  71. 71. Thank you!efernandes@worldbank.orgMi4ga4on   +  Adapta4on   The  Zambezi  River  at  Tete  in  Mozambique  

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