Mitigation ambition in new and updated NDCs:
Soil carbon, livestock, and rice sub-sectors
October 27, 2021
Sabrina Rose, CCAFS
Lena Stier, CCAFS
Katie Nelson, IRRI
Trang Vu, IRRI
Liesl Wiese-Rozanova
With thanks to:
Lini Wollenberg, CCAFS
Arun Khatri-Chhetri
Ciniro Costa Jr., CCAFS
Sadie Shelton, CCAFS
Kyle Dittmer, CCAFS
Bailey Rowland, CCAFS
Andreas Wilkes, Values for
development
Leigh Winowiecki, ICRAF
Ermias Betemariam, ICRAF
Claudia Arndt, ILRI
Francesco Tubiello, FAO

Sources:
1. Fuss et al. 2018
2. Tubiello et al. 2021, Xu et al. 2021,
Poore & Nemecek 2018, FAOSTAT
2-5
billion tonnes CO2 per year ,
soil carbon sequestration
potential by 20501
40-50%
food system emissions
from livestock2
6-8%
food system emissions
from rice2
Why focus on soil carbon, livestock, and rice sub-sectors?

7%
15%
Previous NDCs
New and updated NDCs
SOC in mitigation
22 countries include soil organic carbon in mitigation
measures in new and updated NDCs
The share of NDCs with soil organic carbon in mitigation measures has increased
No new or updated NDC
No mention of SOC in mitigation
as of October 23, 2021
as of November 24, 2019
22
countries
13
countries
Note: EU countries are counted individually

35%
34%
Previous NDCs
New and updated NDCs
Livestock mitigation measure
49 countries include livestock mitigation measures in new and updated NDCs
The share of NDCs with livestock in mitigation measures has not significantly changed
No new or updated NDC
No livestock mitigation measure
as of October 23, 2021
as of November 24, 2019
49
countries
68
countries
Note: EU countries are counted individually

9%
17%
Previous NDCs
New and updated NDCs
Rice mitigation measure
24 countries include rice mitigation measures in new and updated NDCs
The share of NDCs with rice in mitigation measures has increased
No new or updated NDC
No rice mitigation measure
as of October 23, 2021
as of November 24, 2019
24
countries
17
countries
Note: EU countries are counted individually

Sub-
sector
Country Example mitigation measure in new or
updated NDC
Improvements since previous NDC
Soil Rwanda “Continuous crop rotation of up to 600,000
Ha, leading to prevention of soil erosion
and reduction of CO2 and N2O emissions
and carbon sequestration in soils.”
• Increased sub-sector coverage
• Quantified outcomes for crop
rotation
• Included mitigation potential, costs,
indicators to track progress

Sub-
sector
Country Example mitigation measure in new or
updated NDC
Improvements since previous NDC
Soil Rwanda “Continuous crop rotation of up to 600,000
Ha, leading to prevention of soil erosion
and reduction of CO2 and N2O emissions
and carbon sequestration in soils.”
• Increased sub-sector coverage
• Quantified outcomes for crop
rotation
• Included mitigation potential, costs,
indicators to track progress
Livestock Costa Rica “By 2030, the application of complete
silvopastoral and agroforestry systems will
increase by 69,500 hectares.”
• Included more detailed livestock
mitigation measures
• Quantified outcomes for agroforestry

Sub-
sector
Country Example mitigation measure in new or
updated NDC
Improvements since previous NDC
Soil Rwanda “Continuous crop rotation of up to 600,000
Ha, leading to prevention of soil erosion
and reduction of CO2 and N2O emissions
and carbon sequestration in soils.”
• Increased sub-sector coverage
• Quantified outcomes for crop
rotation
• Included mitigation potential, costs,
indicators to track progress
Livestock Costa Rica “By 2030, the application of complete
silvopastoral and agroforestry systems will
increase by 69,500 hectares.”
• Included more detailed livestock
mitigation measures
• Quantified outcomes for agroforestry
Rice Bangladesh “Upscaling Alternate Wetting and Drying
(AWD) in dry season rice field in 50,000 ha
of crop lands” (unconditionally), 100,000 ha
(conditionally)
• Changed outcome from “20% of all
rice cultivation uses alternate wetting
and drying irrigation” (conditionally)

NA – No new or updated NDC as of October 23, 2021
Sources: 1. NDCs, WRI Climate Watch (2021), 2. Roe et al. (2021)
Rank Country Sector coverage1
Cost-effective mitigation potential, SOC
in cropland, grassland
(Mt CO2/year) (Roe et al. 2021)2
SOC specified in
mitigation measures in
new or updated NDC?
1 China NA 230.9 NA
2 United States Economy-wide 210.8 Yes
3 India NA 131.5 NA
4 Brazil Economy-wide 124.6 Yes
5 Russia Economy-wide 106.5 No
6 Kazakhstan NA 41.6 NA
7 Australia Economy-wide 39.1 Yes
8 South Africa Economy-wide 37.4 No
9 Ethiopia Economy-wide 34.6 Yes
10 Canada Economy-wide 32.5 Yes
5 countries with high potential include SOC

Rank Country Sector coverage1
Cost-effective mitigation potential,
enteric, manure
(Mt CO2e/year) (Roe et al. 2021)2
Livestock in mitigation
measures in new or
updated NDC?
1 United States Economy-wide 61.2 Yes
2 China NA 30.2 NA
3 India NA 9.9 NA
4 Brazil Economy-wide 8.8 Yes
5 Nigeria Economy-wide 4.7 Yes
6 Bangladesh Economy-wide 4.1 Yes
7 Australia Economy-wide 3.1 No
8 Canada Economy-wide 2.7 Yes
9 New Zealand Economy-wide 2.6 Yes
10 Spain (EU) Economy-wide 2.5 No
6 countries with high potential include livestock
NA – No new or updated NDC as of October 23, 2021
Sources: 1. NDCs, WRI Climate Watch (2021), 2. Roe et al. (2021)

NA – No new or updated NDC as of October 23, 2021
Sources: 1. NDCs, WRI Climate Watch (2021), 2. Roe et al. (2021),
3. Griscom et al. 2017
Rank Country Sector coverage1
Cost-effective mitigation potential,
rice cultivation
(Mt CO2e/year) (Roe et al. 2021)2
Rice in mitigation
measures in new or
updated NDC?
1 India NA 352
NA
2 China NA 252
NA
3 Indonesia Economy-wide 133
Refers to crops
4 Vietnam Economy-wide 122
Refers to crops
5 Bangladesh Economy-wide 113
Yes
6 Myanmar
Energy, Agriculture, FOLU,
Transport
8.52
No
7 Thailand Economy-wide 82
No
8 Philippines Economy-wide 5.42
No
9 Brazil Economy-wide 3.62
No
10 Pakistan Economy-wide 2.62
Yes
4 countries with high potential include rice

Conclusions
• Enhanced sub-sector action can improve transparency and enable finance, but
cost-effective monitoring, reporting, and verification can be a constraint.
• The share of NDCs that include sub-sectors has either increased (soil carbon
and rice) or stayed relatively the same (livestock).
• Some countries are including more detail on sub-sector actions, but changes
can be ambiguous.
• Many countries still lack data to include quantified measures for sub-sectors.
• Of the top 10 countries with the highest mitigation potentials in each sub-
sector, 5 include SOC, 6 include livestock, and 4 include rice.

Coming early November!
Soil organic carbon ambition in new and updated NDCs
Livestock ambition in new and updated NDCs
Rice ambition in new and updated NDCs
Assessment of policies to support SOC in NDCs: Brazil and Rwanda case studies
Database of sub-sector commitments in new and updated NDCs
ccafs.cgiar.org
Contact:
Sabrina Rose
s.rose@cgiar.org