Presentation by Thomas Rosswall, Chair, CCAFS Independent Science Panel to the International Conference on Food Security in Dry Lands (FSDL). 14 November 2012, Doha, Qatar.

1. Adaptation Measures to
Climate Change
in Drylands
Thomas Rosswall
Chair, CCAFS Independent Science Panel

2. Climate Change and Drylands
Change in mean annual
precipitation (1980s to 2080s)

3. Areas experiencing a more than 5%
decrease in length growing period by
2050

4. Weather catastrophes
US$ billion (2010 values)
Overall losses Insured losses
Source: Munich RE NatCatSERVICE

5. Impact of weather shocks
Oxfam (2012) based on D. Willenbockel (2012)

6. Historical impacts on wheat (1980-2008)
Changes in growing season temperature
China
India
US
% Yield impact
Russia
for wheat France
Global
Lobell et al (2011)

7. Increased Water Scarcity
Comprehensive Assessment of Water
Management in Agriculture, 2007

8. Vulnerability Mapping
Areas where there is greater than 5% change in LGP
Ericksen et al., CCAFS, 2011

9. Adaptation and Mitigation
Agriculture can contribute to mitigation:
• Intensification on current land to avoid
deforestation and other land-use changes
• Increased storage of C in vegetation and
soil
• Reduction in N2O and CH4 emissions
These factors also contribute to adaptation
and create a win-win situation

10. Transformational adaptation in
agriculture

11. Transformation in institutions
that support agriculture
finance
policy
incentives

12. Take action across the whole food system
From Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and
Climate Change, 2012

13. Large-scale Successes in Food Security and
Adaptation/Mitigation
• Safety nets
•Eathopia: 7 million people, inc. public works:
landscape and watershed rehabilitation
• Weather-based insurance schemes
•India: 9 million farmers
• Climate information services
•India: 2.5 million farmers
• Crop improvement programmes
•CIMMYT – 1 million hectares
• Landscape restoration (inc. adaptation/mitgation)
•Marooco: Maroc Vert – 500.000 hectares
•Niger: 5 million hectares

14. Climate Financing
• National governments should commit 10% of
budget towards agriculture and food security
following the Maputo declaration for African
states
• Climate change adaptation will be costly –
countries driving emissions have a responsibilty
to finance countries impacted by CC
•Green Climate Fund must be resourced and be
useful for agriculture

15. Food Security and COP18
COP18 offers a unique opportunity for
countries with extensive drylands to shape
the global climate agenda, and ensure that
food security gets attention in the
negotiations.
A work programme should provide the
evidence and methods to achieve
development goals of improved food
security, more resilient livelihoods and
achieving mitigation goals.

16. Thank you!
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