Delivering on the U.S. Climate Commitment: A 10-Point Plan Toward A Low-Carbon Future
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Analysis to Support Post-2020 GHG Emission Targets. Examines several pathways for the United States to use existing policies and authority to accelerate technology trends underway to make deep emissions cuts while taking advantage of economic opportunities from improved efficiencies and affordable, low-carbon solutions. Find out more at http://ow.ly/Nu2IM
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Delivering on the U.S. Climate Commitment: A 10-Point Plan Toward A Low-Carbon Future
- 1. Analysis to Support Post-2020 GHG Emission Targets DELIVERING ON THE U.S. CLIMATE COMMITMENT: A 10-POINT PLAN TOWARD A LOW-CARBON FUTURE KARL HAUSKER, SENIOR FELLOW MAY 2015
- 2. Image: Flickr/Philip Roeland $1tnlost to weather and climate disasters in the US since 1980 $200bn lost to weather and climate disasters in the US since 2011 THE URGENCY OF CLIMATE ACTION
- 3. UNITED STATES SETS CHALLENGING GHG EMISSIONS REDUCTION TARGET FOR 2025 Source: The White House, FACT SHEET: U.S. Reports its 2025 Emissions Target to the UNFCCC
- 4. CLIMATE ACTION AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL • Taking action on most major emission sources, building off the 2013 U.S. Climate Action Plan and other initiatives • Relies on existing authorities • 2012 – strengthened GHG and CAFE standards • 2014 – Clean Power Plan proposed • 2014 – SNAP rules on HFCs proposed
- 5. CLIMATE ACTION AT THE STATE LEVEL • States are taking a broad range of actions • Renewable Portfolio Standards (31) • Energy Efficiency Resource Standards (21) • Market-based systems putting a price on carbon: • California • Nine northeast states (RGGI)
- 6. WRI ANALYSIS OF U.S. TARGET BUILDS ON A BODY OF PREVIOUS WORK 2013: Can the US Get There From Here? 2015: Carbon Pricing Handbook 2014 NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY: GLOBAL REPORT: Better Growth, Better Climate U.S. REPORT: Seeing is Believing
- 7. RESEARCH QUESTIONS • Using existing federal authorities combined with state actions, what pathways could deliver the 26-28% reduction? • Looking beyond 2025, and assuming new legislative authority in coming years, what pathways could move further toward a low- carbon economy in 2030-2040 and beyond?
- 8. KEY FINDINGS • U.S. can meet or exceed 26-28 percent target. • A wide range of actions are underway, but the U.S. will need to: – Expand and strengthen some current and proposed policies – Take action on emission sources not yet addressed • Beyond 2025, deeper reductions are necessary and achievable in parallel with a growing economy.
- 9. NET GHG EMISSIONS: REFERENCE CASE
- 10. NET GHG EMISSIONS: REFERENCE CASE AND LOW-CARBON PATHWAYS
- 11. SECTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO GHG REDUCTIONS UNDER CORE AMBITION PATHWAY (26% IN 2025) Reduction = X,XXX Mt below 2005 levels
- 13. POWER SECTOR • Multiple factors are leading to lower carbon intensity • Clean Power Plan will accelerate this change • Significant potential remains
- 14. HYDROFLUOROCARBONS • Consumption and emissions will keep growing • EPA taking action • SNAP program • Vehicles rules
- 15. INDUSTRY • Strong growth in emissions expected • Untapped potential for energy efficiency and fuel switching • EPA has broad Clean Air Act authority • DOE programs also spur reductions
- 16. BEYOND 2025: DEEPER REDUCTIONS NEEDED • Congress needs to engage • Growing support for putting a price on carbon • Carbon pricing – Reduces emissions – Compatible with robust economic growth • Evidence: – Experience in the U.S. and worldwide – Credible modeling of impacts carbon pricingxpert opinion and coordinate with experts
- 17. BEYOND 2025: CARBON PRICE PATHWAYS • Update, improve and expand WRI model • Explored pathways combining a price on carbon with targeted complementary policies • Emissions reduced – 40-42% below 2005 levels by 2030 – 50-53% by 2040 • GDP and employment impacts • Lower energy bills possible in residential, commercial, and transport sectors • Solicit expert opinion and coordinate with experts
- 18. KEY FINDINGS - RECAP • U.S. can meet or exceed 26-28 percent target. • A wide range of actions are underway, but the U.S. will need to: – Expand and strengthen some current and proposed policies – Take action on emission sources not yet addressed • Beyond 2025, deeper reductions are necessary and achievable in parallel with a growing economy.
- 19. Delivering on the U.S. Climate Commitment: A 10-Point Plan Toward a Low-Carbon Future THANK YOU
Editor's Notes
- http://www.flickr.com/photos/27389313@N05/6285501633/ “Since 1980, over $1 trillion lost to climate disasters in the US” (NOAA) “Since 2011, more than $200 billion in losses have occurred from billion dollar events in the US”
- In March United States put forward a serious proposal to slash its carbon emissions 26-28 percent below 2005 levels by 2030, effectively doubling the speed of emission reductions compared to its last international pledge. U.S. submission could offer real momentum to global climate negotiations – but only if domestic and international stakeholders consider it a credible offer. There is a need for a robust, independent analysis on whether and how the U.S. administration can deliver on its climate target.
- The Administration is taking steps to reduce U.S. emissions through the U.S. Climate Action Plan The plan uses existing authorities granted to agencies such as DOT, DOE, & EPA Includes action on critical emission sources and sectors: power plants, energy efficiency, renewables, HFCs, methane, and forests [see WRI and DSIRE database]
- The Administration is taking steps to reduce U.S. emissions through the U.S. Climate Action Plan The plan uses existing authorities granted to agencies such as DOT, DOE, & EPA Includes action on critical emission sources and sectors: power plants, energy efficiency, renewables, HFCs, methane, and forests [see WRI and DSIRE database]
- 2013: Can the US Get There From Here? 2014: New Climate Economy project: Global report: Better Growth, Better Climate U.S. report: Seeing is Believing: Creating a New Climate Economy in the U.S. 2015: Carbon Pricing Handbook
- Note use of WRI-GAM, NEMS, [acknowledge Duke/GaTech], and expert solicitation and peer review OLD TEXT ON “OUR APPROACH”: Update, improve and expand WRI-GAM Apply NEMS to help generate Reference Case and pathways with carbon pricing Rely on peer-reviewed literature wherever possible for options and quantification of mitigation potential Solicit expert opinion and conduct internal and external peer review of report
- The United States has begun to take strong action to reduce its GHG emissions, but action taken to-date is not enough to put the country on track to meet its climate targets. The United States can meet, or even surpass, its commitment to reduce emissions 26-28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025 using existing federal laws and state action. The United States could achieve even deeper reductions in the longer-term, while still growing the economy.
- [relabel to reflect pie nature] add tons number
- [Show for a few seconds to set up slides on individual action items]
- EPA’s CPP will be finalized this summer More renewable and efficiency opportunities are available than under the CPP as proposed EPA should strengthen the CPP to take advantage of these resources DOE and EPA should scale up existing efficiency programs to drive greater cost and energy savings [should we recommend that EPA not credit states w/ federal actions????]
- HFC emissions have been increasing due to the phaseout of ozone-depleting substances Represents the second largest abatement opportunity In the absence of an international phase-down agreement, EPA has started to implement measures to reduce HFC emissions Reducing high-GWP HFC use in personal vehicles, pickups, vans, and combination tractors Finalized rules under SNAP program to approve low-GWP alternatives Proposed rules to move some higher-GWP HFCs out of market However, a lot of potential still remains, so EPA should continue and expand programs to reduce HFC emissions, like the SNAP program and by extending the servicing and disposal of air conditioning and refrigeration equipment requirements for ozone-depleting substances to HFCs
- State and federal programs are in place to accelerate industrial efficiency: Boiler MACT, tax credits, market and rate design, technical assistance Much greater potential exists to reduce emissions in the sector through efficiency and fuel-switching To achieve this potential, EPA (and DOE?) should combine ambitious minimum performance standards for equipment with voluntary benchmarking and labeling programs
- Congress has tackled every other major environmental and energy problem with huge bipartisan majorities - Ck history: CAA, CWA, superfund, TOSCA, etc. Even 1996 SDWA and pesticides
- [keeping this part of the report low-key to keep focus on 2025]
- The United States has begun to take strong action to reduce its GHG emissions, but action taken to-date is not enough to put the country on track to meet its climate targets. The United States can meet, or even surpass, its commitment to reduce emissions 26-28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025 using existing federal laws and state action. The United States could achieve even deeper reductions in the longer-term, while still growing the economy.