CCXG Global Forum March 2018, Accounting for baseline targerts-1 by Luis Panichelli

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1) The document discusses Argentina's updated NDC submitted in November 2016, which changed from an unconditional emissions reduction goal to a fixed emissions target of 483 Mt CO2eq by 2030. 2) Key reasons for the change included a new administration in Argentina, availability of new data and methods, and increasing ambition and transparency. 3) Updating the NDC every 5 years as planned in 2020 will require clear understanding of accounting and ensuring assumptions, measures, and long term scenarios support the NDC goals.

Presentations & Public Speaking

Luis Panichelli PhD – Technical Expert
Climate Change Division – Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development
Climate Change Expert Group (CCXG)
Global Forum on the Environment and Climate Change
7-8 March 2018
OECD Conference Centre - Paris

INDC – Oct. 2015
INDC (2015) and NDC (2016) Goals
Unconditional Goal: Reduce GHG emissions by 15% in 2030
with respect to projected BAU emissions for that year.
Conditional Goal: Reduce GHG emissions by 30% in 2030
with respect to projected BAU emissions for that year.
Unconditional Goal: Argentina shall not exceed a net emission of 483 million tons
of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2eq) by the year 2030.
NDC – Nov. 2016

1. Change in National Circumstances
Motivation to review the NDC and the baseline scenario
• Change in Administration
• Ministry of Environment, National Climate Change Direction
• Climate Change Cabinet (Decree 891/2016)
• Ratification of the Paris Agreement (Law 27.270)
2. New data and methods available
• BUR2 - 2014 Inventory
• IPCC GL 2006
• Participatory process and validation of assumptions
3. Increase level of ambition and provide more clarity,
transparency and understanding of the contribution
• Methodological issues to define the goal
• Mitigation and adaptation measures and means
• Level of ambition and justice of the contribution
• Institutional framework

Motivation to change from BAU scenario to Fixed Target Approach
Political Decision
BAU Update
670 Mt CO2-eq 592 Mt CO2-eq in year 2030.
1. Clarity, Transparency and Understanding
2. Global Stocktake accounting
3. Article 6 – Carbon Markets
1. Methodological change (IPCC 2006)
2. Removal of free riders
3. Economic growth assumptions
Construction of Fixed Target Goal

Updates
Updating the NDC
• Planned 2020 and every five years
• Clear understanding of Paragraph 24 of Decision 1/CP.21 needed
Critical issues
• BAU assumptions
• Bottom up construction based on sectoral projections of activity data
• Cross-checking of consistency between economic sectors
• Linking NDC and National Inventory emissions
• Accounting for measures not reflected in the inventory
• Interconnection between measures and emissions
• Uncertainty in AFOLU sector
• Forest mitigation measurement subjected to external factors
• Long term scenarios - 2050
• Climate change group in G20 Presidency

Sectorial National Action Plans
Effect of NDC revision on National Climate Action Agenda
• The revision of the NDC motivated the political compromise to
address climate change and spin-off the implementation process
3 Plans
represent 93% of the NDC
+ than 40 roadmaps for NDC measures
+ than 10 provincial/sub-national measures
with roadmaps to support the NDC
3 Plans
under development

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