Abstract Malaysia receives rainfall from 2000 mm to 4000 mm annually where it is greatly influenced by two monsoon periods in November to March and May to September. The state of Sarawak is well known for its long and wide rivers. Numerous activities such as commercial, industrial and residential can always be found in the vicinity of the rivers. The activities have started since decades ago and still continue to grow and spatially expanding through times providing incomes ranging from small farmers to the largest corporations. Unfortunately, these areas are expected to experience frequent flood events as well as possible receding water level in rivers based on the findings of previous studies. If the projections are accurate, the productivity of these activities will be reduced, hence, in a longer term may affect the economy of the state as whole as well. Therefore, there is an urgent need for existing knowledge on rainfall behavior to be revised as effects of climate change with the intention that the state can fully utilize the favorable conditions and make scientific based decisions in the future. Recent study reveals that the Fourier series (FS), has the ability to simulate long-term rainfall up to 300 years is viewed as an important finding in the study of rainfall forecast. Long-term rainfall forecasting is viewed to be beneficial to the state of Sarawak in its future planning in various sectors such as water supply, flood mitigation, river transportation as well as agriculture. The main goal of the study is to apply a mathematical modeling in rainfall forecasting for the Sungai Sarawak basin. Data from eight rain gauge stations was analyzed and prepared for missing data, consistency check and adequacy of number of stations. Simple statistical analysis was conducted on the data such as maximum, minimum, mean and standard deviation. 27 years of annual rainfall data were simulated with the Fourier Series equation using spreadsheet. Hence, the result was compared with the Fitting N-term Harmonic Series. The model result reveals that the Fourier Series has the ability to simulate the observed data by being able to describe the rainfall pattern and there is a reasonable relationship between the simulation and observed data with p-value of 0.93. Keywords: Fourier series, Mathematical
Assessment of two Methods to study Precipitation PredictionAI Publications
Presipitation analysis plays an important role in hydrological studies. In this study, using 50 years of rainfall data and ARIMA model, critical areas of Iran were determined. For this purpose, annual rainfall data of 112 different synoptic stations in Iran were gathered. To summarize, it could be concluded that: ARIMA model was an appropriate tool to forecast annual rainfall. According to obtained results from relative error, five stations were in critical condition. At 45 stations accrued rainfalls with amounts of less than half of average in the 50-year period. Therefore, in these 45 areas, chance of drought is more than other areas of Iran.
Time Series Data Analysis for Forecasting – A Literature ReviewIJMER
In today's world there is ample opportunity to clout the numerous sources of time series data
available for decision making. This time ordered data can be used to improve decision making if the data
is converted to information and then into knowledge which is called knowledge discovery. Data Mining
(DM) methods are being increasingly used in prediction with time series data, in addition to traditional
statistical approaches. This paper presents a literature review of the use of DM and statistical approaches
with time series data, focusing on weather prediction. This is an area that has been attracting a great deal
of attention from researchers in the field.
A comparative study of different imputation methods for daily rainfall data i...journalBEEI
Rainfall data are the most significant values in hydrology and climatology modelling. However, the datasets are prone to missing values due to various issues. This study aspires to impute the rainfall missing values by using various imputation method such as Replace by Mean, Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest, Non-linear Interactive Partial Least-Square (NIPALS) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Daily rainfall datasets from 48 rainfall stations across east-coast Peninsular Malaysia were used in this study. The dataset were then fed into Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model. The performance of abovementioned methods were evaluated using Root Mean Square Method (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (CE). The experimental results showed that RF coupled with MLR (RF-MLR) approach was attained as more fitting for satisfying the missing data in east-coast Peninsular Malaysia.
Runoff Prediction of Gharni River Catchment of Maharashtra by Regressional An...ijtsrd
The present study deals with the prediction of runoff of a river catchment of maharastra by using linear regressional analysis and self organizing maps by handling numerical data. The prediction is done by using past data record. A mathematical model has been developed for rainfall runoff correlation. Warish Khan | Adil Masood | Najib Hasan"Runoff Prediction of Gharni River Catchment of Maharashtra by Regressional Analysis and Ann Tool Box" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-2 | Issue-1 , December 2017, URL: http://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd7025.pdf http://www.ijtsrd.com/engineering/civil-engineering/7025/runoff-prediction-of-gharni-river-catchment-of-maharashtra-by-regressional-analysis-and-ann-tool-box/warish-khan
Rainfall-Runoff Modelling using Modified NRCS-CN,RS and GIS -A Case StudyIJERA Editor
Study of rainfall and runoff for any area and modeling it, is one of the important aspects for planning and
development of water resources. The development of water resources and its effective management plays a vital
role in development of any country more particularly in India, which is an agricultural based economy. Hence it
is intended to develop a model of Rainfall and runoff to a river basin and also apply the methodology to Sarada
River Basin which has drainage area of 1252.99 Sq.km. The basin is situated in Vishakhapatnam district of
Andhra Pradesh, India. The rainfall and runoff data has been collected from the gauging stations of the basin
apart from rainfall data from nearby stations. MNRCS-CN method has been adopted to calculate runoff. Various
hydrological parameters like soil information, rainfall, land use and land cover (LU/LC) were considered to use
in MNRCS-CN method. The depth of runoff has been computed for different land use patterns using, IRS-P4-
LISS IV data for the study area. Based on the analysis, land use/land cover pattern of Sarada River Basin has
been prepared. The land use/land cover patterns were also visually interpreted and digitized using ERDAS
IMAGINE software. The raster data was processed in ERDAS and geo-referenced and various maps viz. LU/LC
maps, drainage map, contour map, DEM (Digital elevation model) have been generated apart from rainfall
potential map using GIS tool. The estimated runoff using MNRCS-CN model has been simulated and compared
with that of actual runoff. The performance of the model is found to be good for the data considered. The
coefficient of determination R2
value for the observed runoff and that of the computed runoff is found to be
more than 0.72 for the selected watershed basin.
Estimation of Annual Runoff in Indravati Sub Basin of Godavari River using St...AM Publications
Prediction of runoff from known rainfall is one of the major problems confronted by hydrologists. There is lack of availability of long period runoff records in large number of catchments in India. Investigators have proposed many empirical relationships for runoff estimation in different catchments based on limited data of parameters affecting runoff. These regional relationships are useful in planning of water resource projects. This study was carried out to obtain simple yet effective relationship for estimation of annual runoff in Indravati sub basin of Godavari river. Regression analysis was carried out using annual rainfall, annual runoff and average annual temperature data to develop empirical models for annual runoff estimation. GIS software was used for preparing maps for the study area and to extract the precipitation and temperature data available in grid format from IMD. The best suited empirical model is then selected as per statistical criteria with lower values of standard error, standard deviation, mean absolute deviation (MAD), root mean square error (RMSE) and higher values of R square and correlation coefficient. Statistical significance of selected empirical model was evaluated by paired t test, F test and P value at 95 % confidence level. The developed relationship is then compared with the existing Khosla and Inglis and DeSouza relationships. Outcome of this comparison produces encouraging inferences to suggest an effective regional relationship for annual runoff estimation in the Indravati sub basin of Godavari river in India.
Assessment of two Methods to study Precipitation PredictionAI Publications
Presipitation analysis plays an important role in hydrological studies. In this study, using 50 years of rainfall data and ARIMA model, critical areas of Iran were determined. For this purpose, annual rainfall data of 112 different synoptic stations in Iran were gathered. To summarize, it could be concluded that: ARIMA model was an appropriate tool to forecast annual rainfall. According to obtained results from relative error, five stations were in critical condition. At 45 stations accrued rainfalls with amounts of less than half of average in the 50-year period. Therefore, in these 45 areas, chance of drought is more than other areas of Iran.
Time Series Data Analysis for Forecasting – A Literature ReviewIJMER
In today's world there is ample opportunity to clout the numerous sources of time series data
available for decision making. This time ordered data can be used to improve decision making if the data
is converted to information and then into knowledge which is called knowledge discovery. Data Mining
(DM) methods are being increasingly used in prediction with time series data, in addition to traditional
statistical approaches. This paper presents a literature review of the use of DM and statistical approaches
with time series data, focusing on weather prediction. This is an area that has been attracting a great deal
of attention from researchers in the field.
A comparative study of different imputation methods for daily rainfall data i...journalBEEI
Rainfall data are the most significant values in hydrology and climatology modelling. However, the datasets are prone to missing values due to various issues. This study aspires to impute the rainfall missing values by using various imputation method such as Replace by Mean, Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest, Non-linear Interactive Partial Least-Square (NIPALS) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Daily rainfall datasets from 48 rainfall stations across east-coast Peninsular Malaysia were used in this study. The dataset were then fed into Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model. The performance of abovementioned methods were evaluated using Root Mean Square Method (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (CE). The experimental results showed that RF coupled with MLR (RF-MLR) approach was attained as more fitting for satisfying the missing data in east-coast Peninsular Malaysia.
Runoff Prediction of Gharni River Catchment of Maharashtra by Regressional An...ijtsrd
The present study deals with the prediction of runoff of a river catchment of maharastra by using linear regressional analysis and self organizing maps by handling numerical data. The prediction is done by using past data record. A mathematical model has been developed for rainfall runoff correlation. Warish Khan | Adil Masood | Najib Hasan"Runoff Prediction of Gharni River Catchment of Maharashtra by Regressional Analysis and Ann Tool Box" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-2 | Issue-1 , December 2017, URL: http://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd7025.pdf http://www.ijtsrd.com/engineering/civil-engineering/7025/runoff-prediction-of-gharni-river-catchment-of-maharashtra-by-regressional-analysis-and-ann-tool-box/warish-khan
Rainfall-Runoff Modelling using Modified NRCS-CN,RS and GIS -A Case StudyIJERA Editor
Study of rainfall and runoff for any area and modeling it, is one of the important aspects for planning and
development of water resources. The development of water resources and its effective management plays a vital
role in development of any country more particularly in India, which is an agricultural based economy. Hence it
is intended to develop a model of Rainfall and runoff to a river basin and also apply the methodology to Sarada
River Basin which has drainage area of 1252.99 Sq.km. The basin is situated in Vishakhapatnam district of
Andhra Pradesh, India. The rainfall and runoff data has been collected from the gauging stations of the basin
apart from rainfall data from nearby stations. MNRCS-CN method has been adopted to calculate runoff. Various
hydrological parameters like soil information, rainfall, land use and land cover (LU/LC) were considered to use
in MNRCS-CN method. The depth of runoff has been computed for different land use patterns using, IRS-P4-
LISS IV data for the study area. Based on the analysis, land use/land cover pattern of Sarada River Basin has
been prepared. The land use/land cover patterns were also visually interpreted and digitized using ERDAS
IMAGINE software. The raster data was processed in ERDAS and geo-referenced and various maps viz. LU/LC
maps, drainage map, contour map, DEM (Digital elevation model) have been generated apart from rainfall
potential map using GIS tool. The estimated runoff using MNRCS-CN model has been simulated and compared
with that of actual runoff. The performance of the model is found to be good for the data considered. The
coefficient of determination R2
value for the observed runoff and that of the computed runoff is found to be
more than 0.72 for the selected watershed basin.
Estimation of Annual Runoff in Indravati Sub Basin of Godavari River using St...AM Publications
Prediction of runoff from known rainfall is one of the major problems confronted by hydrologists. There is lack of availability of long period runoff records in large number of catchments in India. Investigators have proposed many empirical relationships for runoff estimation in different catchments based on limited data of parameters affecting runoff. These regional relationships are useful in planning of water resource projects. This study was carried out to obtain simple yet effective relationship for estimation of annual runoff in Indravati sub basin of Godavari river. Regression analysis was carried out using annual rainfall, annual runoff and average annual temperature data to develop empirical models for annual runoff estimation. GIS software was used for preparing maps for the study area and to extract the precipitation and temperature data available in grid format from IMD. The best suited empirical model is then selected as per statistical criteria with lower values of standard error, standard deviation, mean absolute deviation (MAD), root mean square error (RMSE) and higher values of R square and correlation coefficient. Statistical significance of selected empirical model was evaluated by paired t test, F test and P value at 95 % confidence level. The developed relationship is then compared with the existing Khosla and Inglis and DeSouza relationships. Outcome of this comparison produces encouraging inferences to suggest an effective regional relationship for annual runoff estimation in the Indravati sub basin of Godavari river in India.
As basic data, the reliability of precipitation data makes a significant impact on many results of environmental applications. In order to obtain spatially distributed precipitation data, measured points are interpolated. There are many spatial interpolation schemes, but none of them can perform best in all cases. So criteria of precision evaluation are established. This study aims to find an optimal interpolation scheme for rainfall in Ningxia. The study area is located in northwest China. Meteorological stations distribute at a low density here. Six interpolation methods have been tested after exploring data. Cross-validation was used as the criterion to evaluate the accuracy of various methods. The best results were obtained by cokriging with elevation as the second variable, while the inverse distance weighting (IDW) preform worst. Three types of model in cokriging were compared, and Gaussian model is the best.
ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF SPATIAL INTERPOLATION OF RAINFALL ON THE STREAMFLOW ...civej
Precipitation within a river basin varies spatially and temporally and hence, is the most relevant input for
hydrologic modelling. Various interpolation methods exist to distribute rainfall spatially within a basin.
The sparse distribution of raingauge stations within a river basin and the differences in interpolation
methods can potentially impact the streamflow simulated using a hydrologic model. The present study
focuses on assessing the effect of spatial interpolation of rainfall using Theissen polygon, Inverse distance
weighted (IDW) method and Ordinary Kriging on the streamflow simulated using a physically based
spatially distributed model-SHETRAN in Vamanapuram river basin in Southern Kerala, India. The
SHETRAN model in the present study utilises rainfall data from the available rain gauge stations within the
basin and potential evapo-transpiration calculated using Penman-Monteith method, along with other input
parameters like soil and landuse. Four years of rainfall and evapo-transpiration data on a daily scale is
used for model calibration and one year data for validation. The performance of the different spatial
interpolation methods were assessed based on the Mean Annual flow and statistical parameters like NashSutcliffe
Efficiency, coefficient of determination. The ordinary kriging and IDW methods were found to be
satisfactory in the spatial interpolation of rainfall.
Derivation Of Intensity Duration Frequency Curves Using Short Duration Rainfa...Mohammed Badiuddin Parvez
The estimation of rainfall intensity is commonly required for the design of hydraulic and water resources engineering control structures. The intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationship is a mathematical relationship between the rainfall intensity, the duration and the return period. The present study aimed the derivation of IDF curves of Yermarus Raingauge Station of Raichur District with 19 years of rainfall data (1998 to 2016). The Normal Distribution, Log Normal Distribution, Gumbel distribution, Pearson Type III Distribution and Log Pearsons Type III Distribution techniques are used to Find the rainfall intensity values of 2, 5, 10, 15, 30, 60, 120, 720, 1440 minutes of rainfall duration with different return period. Chi Square test was conducted to find the goodness of fit the short duration IDF using daily rainfall data are presented, which is input for water resources projects.
Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is widely used by hydrologists for appraisal of probable maximum flood (PMF) used for soil and water conservation structures, and design of dam spillways. The estimation of design storm for example depends on availability of rainfall quantities and their durations. Daily maximum multiannual series are one of the main inputs for design streamflow calculation. The study generated annual series of Daily maximum rainfall for fourty four stations by using statical approach such as Normal distribution, Log-Normal Distribution, Pearson type III distribution and Gumbel’s Distribution .Results reveals that among the different statical approaches Log-Normal distribution fits the best compared to others. Isohyetal Maps of study area at different frequency are produced by using GIS tools, the maximum intensity varies from 2.5 mm/hr to 628 mm/hr.
An Attempt To Use Interpolation to Predict Rainfall Intensities tor Crash Ana...IJMERJOURNAL
ABSTRACT: This study uses different interpolation techniques to predict rainfall intensity at locationsthat are not directly located near a rainfall gauges. The goal of being able to interpolate the rainfall intensity is to study its impact on traffic crashes. To perform the study, a collection of rainfall gauges in Alabama were used as subject locations where rainfall intensity was predicted from surrounding gauges, while also providing validation data to compare the predictions. Essentially, the actual rainfall intensities at existing gauges were interpolated using nearby gauges and the results were analyzed.The interpolation techniques used in the study included proximal, averaging and a distance weighted average. The results of the study indicated that none of the interpolation methodologies were sufficient to accurately predict the rainfall intensity values any significant distance from the actual gauges.
Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis By L-Moments Approach For Madina Region,...IJERDJOURNAL
ABSTRACT:- In arid regions, extreme rainfall event frequency predictions are still a challenging problem, because of the rain gauge stations scarcity and the record length limitation, which are usually short to insure reliable quantile estimates. Regional frequency analysis is one of the popular approaches used to compensate the data limitation. In this paper, regional frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfall is investigated for Madinah province in the Western Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The observed maximum daily rainfall records of 20 rainfall stations are selected from 1968 to 2015. The rainfall data is evaluated using four tests, namely, Discordance test (Di), Homogeneity test (H), Goodness of fit test (Zdist) and L-moment ratios diagram (LMRD). The Di of L-moments shows that all the sites belong to one group (Di <3.0).><1). Finally, the Zdist is used to evaluate five probability distribution functions (PDFs) including generalized logistic (GLO), generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized normal (GNO), generalized Pareto (GPA), and Pearson Type III (PE3). Zdist and LMRD both showed that PE3 distribution is the best among the other PDFs. The regional parameters of the candidate PDF are computed using L-moments approach and accordingly the regional dimensionless growth curve is developed. The results enhance the accuracy of extreme rainfall prediction at-sites and also they can be used for ungauged catchment in the region.
Determination of homogenous regions in the Tensift basin (Morocco).IJERA Editor
The aim of this study is to determine homogenous region in the Tensift basin within which the hydrological behavior is similar. In order to do this we used two methods: The Principal components analysis on the monthly precipitation registered at the 23 rainfall stations. This resulted in setting apart 4 groups of stations. The second method is analysis of land use map, geological map, pedagogical map, vegetation map and slope map of the studied area. This method allowed us to delineate 4 homogenous areas. The two methods yielded complementary results and the superposition of groups and regions obtained allowed us to retain 4 homogenous regions corresponding to 3 groups of stations.
Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves and RegionalisationAM Publications
Storm sewers make up a large percentage of drainage system in an urban setup. The design of these
components are based on rainfall intensities of a specific design period for that location. These can be derived from
intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationship. These IDF relationships are derived from historical rainfall, using
an extreme value distribution for maximum rainfall intensity. In the present study the IDF curves and parameter
regionalisation were studied for various kinds of basins. These equation parameters can be then used to understand
the spatial variation of rainfall intensity in the study area. The parameter contour maps subsequently generated using
various interpolation method are then used for plotting IDF curves for any ungauged station in the basin.
Comparison of Tropical Thunderstorm Estimation between Multiple Linear Regres...journalBEEI
Thunderstorms are dangerous and it has increased due to highly precipitation and cloud cover density in the Mesoscale Convective System area. Climate change is one of the causes to increasing the thunderstorm activity. The present studies aimed to estimate the thunderstorm activity at the Tawau area of Sabah, Malaysia based on the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Dvorak technique, and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). A combination of up to six inputs of meteorological data such as Pressure (P), Temperature (T), Relative Humidity (H), Cloud (C), Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV), and Precipitation (Pr) on a daily basis in 2012 were examined in the training process to find the best configuration system. By using Jacobi algorithm, H and PWV were identified to be correlated well with thunderstorms. Based on the two inputs that have been identified, the Sugeno method was applied to develop a Fuzzy Inference System. The model demonstrated that the thunderstorm activities during intermonsoon are detected higher than the other seasons. This model is comparable to the thunderstorm data that was collected manually with percent error below 50%.
Dr Neville Fowkes, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Western Australia presents an overview of mathematical modelling applications in industry. Presented as part of the R&D Workshop hosted by the Innovation Centre of WA on 14 november 2012 at the AMC Jakovich Function Centre in Henderson, WA.
Forecast Model for Box-Office Revenue of Bollywood Feature FilmsPrerit Kohli
We consider the technique to forecast the net revenue collections of a feature film. Previous work on this problem has been addressed majorly to Hollywood films with very limited work on motion pictures developed by the Hindi Film Industry – Bollywood. In this piece of work, we use the parameters governing a movie’s revenue and the historical revenue gross patterns for forecasting. We also show that the model can be used for low budget movies which are usually left out by technology giants like Google, Twitter etc. due to negligible buzz for the movie as compared to that for high-budget ones.
Key
As basic data, the reliability of precipitation data makes a significant impact on many results of environmental applications. In order to obtain spatially distributed precipitation data, measured points are interpolated. There are many spatial interpolation schemes, but none of them can perform best in all cases. So criteria of precision evaluation are established. This study aims to find an optimal interpolation scheme for rainfall in Ningxia. The study area is located in northwest China. Meteorological stations distribute at a low density here. Six interpolation methods have been tested after exploring data. Cross-validation was used as the criterion to evaluate the accuracy of various methods. The best results were obtained by cokriging with elevation as the second variable, while the inverse distance weighting (IDW) preform worst. Three types of model in cokriging were compared, and Gaussian model is the best.
ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF SPATIAL INTERPOLATION OF RAINFALL ON THE STREAMFLOW ...civej
Precipitation within a river basin varies spatially and temporally and hence, is the most relevant input for
hydrologic modelling. Various interpolation methods exist to distribute rainfall spatially within a basin.
The sparse distribution of raingauge stations within a river basin and the differences in interpolation
methods can potentially impact the streamflow simulated using a hydrologic model. The present study
focuses on assessing the effect of spatial interpolation of rainfall using Theissen polygon, Inverse distance
weighted (IDW) method and Ordinary Kriging on the streamflow simulated using a physically based
spatially distributed model-SHETRAN in Vamanapuram river basin in Southern Kerala, India. The
SHETRAN model in the present study utilises rainfall data from the available rain gauge stations within the
basin and potential evapo-transpiration calculated using Penman-Monteith method, along with other input
parameters like soil and landuse. Four years of rainfall and evapo-transpiration data on a daily scale is
used for model calibration and one year data for validation. The performance of the different spatial
interpolation methods were assessed based on the Mean Annual flow and statistical parameters like NashSutcliffe
Efficiency, coefficient of determination. The ordinary kriging and IDW methods were found to be
satisfactory in the spatial interpolation of rainfall.
Derivation Of Intensity Duration Frequency Curves Using Short Duration Rainfa...Mohammed Badiuddin Parvez
The estimation of rainfall intensity is commonly required for the design of hydraulic and water resources engineering control structures. The intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationship is a mathematical relationship between the rainfall intensity, the duration and the return period. The present study aimed the derivation of IDF curves of Yermarus Raingauge Station of Raichur District with 19 years of rainfall data (1998 to 2016). The Normal Distribution, Log Normal Distribution, Gumbel distribution, Pearson Type III Distribution and Log Pearsons Type III Distribution techniques are used to Find the rainfall intensity values of 2, 5, 10, 15, 30, 60, 120, 720, 1440 minutes of rainfall duration with different return period. Chi Square test was conducted to find the goodness of fit the short duration IDF using daily rainfall data are presented, which is input for water resources projects.
Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is widely used by hydrologists for appraisal of probable maximum flood (PMF) used for soil and water conservation structures, and design of dam spillways. The estimation of design storm for example depends on availability of rainfall quantities and their durations. Daily maximum multiannual series are one of the main inputs for design streamflow calculation. The study generated annual series of Daily maximum rainfall for fourty four stations by using statical approach such as Normal distribution, Log-Normal Distribution, Pearson type III distribution and Gumbel’s Distribution .Results reveals that among the different statical approaches Log-Normal distribution fits the best compared to others. Isohyetal Maps of study area at different frequency are produced by using GIS tools, the maximum intensity varies from 2.5 mm/hr to 628 mm/hr.
An Attempt To Use Interpolation to Predict Rainfall Intensities tor Crash Ana...IJMERJOURNAL
ABSTRACT: This study uses different interpolation techniques to predict rainfall intensity at locationsthat are not directly located near a rainfall gauges. The goal of being able to interpolate the rainfall intensity is to study its impact on traffic crashes. To perform the study, a collection of rainfall gauges in Alabama were used as subject locations where rainfall intensity was predicted from surrounding gauges, while also providing validation data to compare the predictions. Essentially, the actual rainfall intensities at existing gauges were interpolated using nearby gauges and the results were analyzed.The interpolation techniques used in the study included proximal, averaging and a distance weighted average. The results of the study indicated that none of the interpolation methodologies were sufficient to accurately predict the rainfall intensity values any significant distance from the actual gauges.
Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis By L-Moments Approach For Madina Region,...IJERDJOURNAL
ABSTRACT:- In arid regions, extreme rainfall event frequency predictions are still a challenging problem, because of the rain gauge stations scarcity and the record length limitation, which are usually short to insure reliable quantile estimates. Regional frequency analysis is one of the popular approaches used to compensate the data limitation. In this paper, regional frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfall is investigated for Madinah province in the Western Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The observed maximum daily rainfall records of 20 rainfall stations are selected from 1968 to 2015. The rainfall data is evaluated using four tests, namely, Discordance test (Di), Homogeneity test (H), Goodness of fit test (Zdist) and L-moment ratios diagram (LMRD). The Di of L-moments shows that all the sites belong to one group (Di <3.0).><1). Finally, the Zdist is used to evaluate five probability distribution functions (PDFs) including generalized logistic (GLO), generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized normal (GNO), generalized Pareto (GPA), and Pearson Type III (PE3). Zdist and LMRD both showed that PE3 distribution is the best among the other PDFs. The regional parameters of the candidate PDF are computed using L-moments approach and accordingly the regional dimensionless growth curve is developed. The results enhance the accuracy of extreme rainfall prediction at-sites and also they can be used for ungauged catchment in the region.
Determination of homogenous regions in the Tensift basin (Morocco).IJERA Editor
The aim of this study is to determine homogenous region in the Tensift basin within which the hydrological behavior is similar. In order to do this we used two methods: The Principal components analysis on the monthly precipitation registered at the 23 rainfall stations. This resulted in setting apart 4 groups of stations. The second method is analysis of land use map, geological map, pedagogical map, vegetation map and slope map of the studied area. This method allowed us to delineate 4 homogenous areas. The two methods yielded complementary results and the superposition of groups and regions obtained allowed us to retain 4 homogenous regions corresponding to 3 groups of stations.
Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves and RegionalisationAM Publications
Storm sewers make up a large percentage of drainage system in an urban setup. The design of these
components are based on rainfall intensities of a specific design period for that location. These can be derived from
intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationship. These IDF relationships are derived from historical rainfall, using
an extreme value distribution for maximum rainfall intensity. In the present study the IDF curves and parameter
regionalisation were studied for various kinds of basins. These equation parameters can be then used to understand
the spatial variation of rainfall intensity in the study area. The parameter contour maps subsequently generated using
various interpolation method are then used for plotting IDF curves for any ungauged station in the basin.
Comparison of Tropical Thunderstorm Estimation between Multiple Linear Regres...journalBEEI
Thunderstorms are dangerous and it has increased due to highly precipitation and cloud cover density in the Mesoscale Convective System area. Climate change is one of the causes to increasing the thunderstorm activity. The present studies aimed to estimate the thunderstorm activity at the Tawau area of Sabah, Malaysia based on the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Dvorak technique, and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). A combination of up to six inputs of meteorological data such as Pressure (P), Temperature (T), Relative Humidity (H), Cloud (C), Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV), and Precipitation (Pr) on a daily basis in 2012 were examined in the training process to find the best configuration system. By using Jacobi algorithm, H and PWV were identified to be correlated well with thunderstorms. Based on the two inputs that have been identified, the Sugeno method was applied to develop a Fuzzy Inference System. The model demonstrated that the thunderstorm activities during intermonsoon are detected higher than the other seasons. This model is comparable to the thunderstorm data that was collected manually with percent error below 50%.
Dr Neville Fowkes, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Western Australia presents an overview of mathematical modelling applications in industry. Presented as part of the R&D Workshop hosted by the Innovation Centre of WA on 14 november 2012 at the AMC Jakovich Function Centre in Henderson, WA.
Forecast Model for Box-Office Revenue of Bollywood Feature FilmsPrerit Kohli
We consider the technique to forecast the net revenue collections of a feature film. Previous work on this problem has been addressed majorly to Hollywood films with very limited work on motion pictures developed by the Hindi Film Industry – Bollywood. In this piece of work, we use the parameters governing a movie’s revenue and the historical revenue gross patterns for forecasting. We also show that the model can be used for low budget movies which are usually left out by technology giants like Google, Twitter etc. due to negligible buzz for the movie as compared to that for high-budget ones.
Key
The information in this slide is very useful for me to do the assignment regarding the simulation in which we have to report together with the presentation...
On the performance analysis of rainfall prediction using mutual information...IJECEIAES
Monsoon rainfall prediction over a small geographic region is indeed a challenging task. This paper uses monthly means of climate variables, namely air temperature (AT), sea surface temperature (SST), and sea level pressure (SLP) over the globe, to predict monthly and seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over the state of Maharashtra, India. Mutual information correlates the temperature and pressure from a grid of 10 longitude X 10 latitude with Maharashtra’s monthly rainfall time series. Based on the correlations, selected features over the respective latitude and longitudes are given as inputs to an artificial neural network. It was observed that AT and SLP could predict monthly monsoon rainfall with excellent accuracy. The performance of the test dataset was evaluated through mean absolute error; root mean square error, correlation coefficient, Nash Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, and maximum rainfall prediction capability of the network. The individual climate variable model for AT performed better in all evaluation parameters except maximum rainfall capability, where the combined model 2 with AT, SLP and SST as predictors outperformed. The SLP-only model’s performance was comparable to the AT-only model. The combined model 1 with AT and SLP as predictors was found better than the combined model 2.
Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are among the most demandable information in meteorology, hydrology and engineering water resources design, planning, operation, and management works. The IDF Curves accessible are for the most part done by fitting arrangement of yearly greatest precipitation force to parametric dispersions. Intensity-durationfrequency (IDF) curves represent the relationship between storm intensity, storm duration and return period. Environmental change is relied upon to intensify the boundaries in the atmosphere factors. Being prone to harsh climate impacts, it is very crucial to study extreme rainfall-induced flooding for short durations over regions that are rapidly growing. One way to approach the extremes is by the application of the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. The annual maximum rainfall intensity (AMRI) characteristics are often used to construct these IDF curves that are being used in several infrastructure designs for urban areas. Thus, there is a necessity to obtain high temporal and spatial resolution rainfall information. Many urban areas of developing countries lack long records of short-duration rainfall. The shortest duration obtained is normally at a daily scale/24 h. This paper suggests their generation based on annual daily maximum rainfall (ADMR) records. Rainfall data of 23 (Twenty three) hydrological years of all stations were used. Maximum rainfall frequency analysis was made by LogNormal Distribution method.
Comparative Study of Machine Learning Algorithms for Rainfall Predictionijtsrd
Majority of Indian framers depend on rainfall for agriculture. Thus, in an agricultural country like India, rainfall prediction becomes very important. Rainfall causes natural disasters like flood and drought, which are encountered by people across the globe every year. Rainfall prediction over drought regions has a great importance for countries like India whose economy is largely dependent on agriculture. A sufficient data length can play an important role in a proper estimation drought, leading to a better appraisal for drought risk reduction. Due to dynamic nature of atmosphere statistical techniques fail to provide good accuracy for rainfall prediction. So, we are going to use Machine Learning algorithms like Multiple Linear Regression, Random Forest Regressor and AdaBoost Regressor, where different models are going to be trained using training data set and tested using testing data set. The dataset which we have collected has the rainfall data from 1901 2015, where across the various drought affected states. Nonlinearity of rainfall data makes Machine Learning algorithms a better technique. Comparison of different approaches and algorithms will increase an accuracy rate of predicting rainfall over drought regions. We are going to use Python to code for algorithms. Intention of this project is to say, which algorithm can be used to predict rainfall, in order to increase the countries socioeconomic status. Mylapalle Yeshwanth | Palla Ratna Sai Kumar | Dr. G. Mathivanan M.E., Ph.D ""Comparative Study of Machine Learning Algorithms for Rainfall Prediction"" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-3 | Issue-3 , April 2019, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd22961.pdf
Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/computer-science/data-miining/22961/comparative-study-of-machine-learning-algorithms-for-rainfall-prediction/mylapalle-yeshwanth
Statistical analysis of an orographic rainfall for eight north-east region of...IJICTJOURNAL
Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used to predict the rain rate for orographic rainfall over a long period of time, from 1980 to 1918. As the orographic rainfall may cause landslides and other natural disaster issues, So, this study is very important for the analysis of rainfall prediction. In this research, statistical calculations have been done based on the rainfall data for twelve regions of India (Cherrapunji, Darjeling, Dawki, Ghum, Itanagar, Kamchenjunga, Mizoram, Nagaland, Pakyong, Saser Kangri, Slot Kangri, and Tripura) from the eight states, i.e., Sikkim, Meghalaya, West Bengal, Ladakh (Union Territory of India), Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Tripura, and Nagaland) with varying altitude. The model's output is assessed using several error calculations. The model's performance is represented by the fit value, which is reliable for the northeast region of India with increasing altitude. The statistical dependability of the rainfall prediction is shown by the parameters. The lowest value of root mean square error (RMSE) indicates better prediction for orographic rainfall.
EFFICACY OF NEURAL NETWORK IN RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELLING OF BAGMATI RIVER BASINIAEME Publication
In this paper, rainfall-runoff model of Bagmati river basin has been developed
using the ANN Technique. Three-layered fced forward network structure with back
propagation algorithm was used to train the ANN model. Different combinations of
rainfall and runoff were considered as input to the network and trained by BP
algorithm with different error tolerance, learning parameter, number of cycles and
number of hidden layers. The sensitivity of the prediction accuracy to the number of
hidden layer neurons in a back error propagation algorithm was used for the study.
The monthly rainfall and runoff data from 2000 to 2009 of Bagmati river basin has
been considered for the development of ANN model. Performance evaluation of the
model has been done by using statistical parameters. Three sets of data have been
used to make several combination of year keeping in view the highest peaks of
hydrographs. First set of data used was from 2000 to 2006 for the calibration and
from 2007 to 2009 for validation. The second set of data was from 2004 to 2009 for
calibration and from 2000 to 2003 for validation. The Third set of data was from 2000
to 2009 for calibration and from 2007 to 2009 for validation. It was found that the
third set of data gave better result than other two sets of data. The study demonstrates
the applicability of ANN approach in developing effective non-linear models of
Rainfall-Runoff process without the need to explicitly representing the internal
hydraulic structure of the watershed
Fitting Probability Distribution Functions To Discharge Variability Of Kaduna...IJMER
International Journal of Modern Engineering Research (IJMER) is Peer reviewed, online Journal. It serves as an international archival forum of scholarly research related to engineering and science education.
RAINFALL PREDICTION USING DATA MINING TECHNIQUES - A SURVEYcscpconf
Rainfall is considered as one of the major components of the hydrological process; it takes significant part in evaluating drought and flooding events. Therefore, it is important to have anaccurate model for rainfall prediction. Recently, several data-driven modeling approaches havebeen investigated to perform such forecasting tasks as multilayer perceptron neural networks
(MLP-NN). In fact, the rainfall time series modeling (SARIMA) involvesimportant temporal dimensions. In order to evaluate the incomes of both models, statistical parameters were used to
make the comparison between the two models. These parameters include the Root Mean Square Error RMSE, Mean Absolute Error MAE, Coefficient Of Correlation CC and BIAS. Two-Third of the data was used for training the model and One-third for testing.
Time Series Analysis of Rainfall in North Bangalore Metropolitan Region using...Dr Ramesh Dikpal
Rainfall studies are of utmost utility for understanding nature & hence the behaviour of climate changes. Time series is a set of observations taken at specified times usually at equal interval. The inherent variability displayed by many hydrological time series usually mask trends and periodic patterns. This situation has often led to “something” the original time series so that the effects of random variations are reduced and trends or cyclical patterns enhanced. Thus a set of data depending on time is called a Time series. Here, Rainfall series represent the time series. The time series analysis is helpful to compare the actual performance and analyse the cause of variations. By comparing different time series we can draw important conclusion. Graphical method implies in increasing trend for pre-monsoon, south-west monsoon, north-east monsoon and annually.Geo- informatics module consists of GIS mapping for Location map, Geomorphology map and Season wise Rainfall maps are generated. Autocorrelation indicates the periodicity observed as 37,16 & 6 years (PM), 12, 37 & 16 years (SWM), 8, 18 & 6 years (NEM) and 16, 22 & 8 years (Annual) respectively. Power spectral depicts the cyclicity of 37, 4 & 3 years (PM), 2, 4& 2 years (SWM), 3, 7 & 2 years (NEM) and 2, 4 & 2 years (Annual) respectively. Moving average displays prominent positive correlation coefficients at lags of 18 to 42 years in PM & SWM and 12 to 24 years in NEM & Annual. The southwest and southeast parts of the study area experience the heavy rainfall whereas the least rainfall areas are the northern parts of the study area.The short term and long term cyclicity observed in Autocorrelation, power spectrum and Moving Average. Spatial variation of rainfall for the three seasons and annual has been studied
Quantitative evaluation and analysis of morphometric parameters derived from ...AM Publications
GIS has become a key source to understand the hydrological conditions of watersheds for the last few decades. Arc Hydro tool of ArcGIS has been proven its role in the automated extraction of drainage network and morphometric analysis from DEMs. The delineation of drainage network can be done either manually from topographic sheets or derived from Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data by means of computational methods. In the present work, ASTER DEM has been incurred to extract drainage network with the aid of Arc hydro tool. The Vaishali River basin of Madhya Pradesh has been taken as the study area. This study has been done primarily based on a geo-spatial software ARC GIS in which ARC HYDRO a tool has been used extensively. The quantitative evaluation and analysis of about twenty morphometric parameters has been done based on the linear, areal and relief aspects. The analysis has revealed that the Vaishali River basin is a fifth order basin showing dendritic drainage pattern with drainage density of 0.40 per km and stream frequency of 0.08 per km2. Low drainage density indicates the basin has not been much affected by structural disturbances while drainage frequency and very coarse drainage texture specifies low relief and porous, permeable rocks beneath the ground surface. The form factor, circularity ratio and elongated ratio suggest the basin shape as elongated. The area has low to moderate relief and slopes displays moderate relief ratios. It is concluded that this technique is not only reduces time but also provides valuable results which are very helpful for watershed management studies.
Mechanical properties of hybrid fiber reinforced concrete for pavementseSAT Journals
Abstract
The effect of addition of mono fibers and hybrid fibers on the mechanical properties of concrete mixture is studied in the present
investigation. Steel fibers of 1% and polypropylene fibers 0.036% were added individually to the concrete mixture as mono fibers and
then they were added together to form a hybrid fiber reinforced concrete. Mechanical properties such as compressive, split tensile and
flexural strength were determined. The results show that hybrid fibers improve the compressive strength marginally as compared to
mono fibers. Whereas, hybridization improves split tensile strength and flexural strength noticeably.
Keywords:-Hybridization, mono fibers, steel fiber, polypropylene fiber, Improvement in mechanical properties.
Material management in construction – a case studyeSAT Journals
Abstract
The objective of the present study is to understand about all the problems occurring in the company because of improper application
of material management. In construction project operation, often there is a project cost variance in terms of the material, equipments,
manpower, subcontractor, overhead cost, and general condition. Material is the main component in construction projects. Therefore,
if the material management is not properly managed it will create a project cost variance. Project cost can be controlled by taking
corrective actions towards the cost variance. Therefore a methodology is used to diagnose and evaluate the procurement process
involved in material management and launch a continuous improvement was developed and applied. A thorough study was carried
out along with study of cases, surveys and interviews to professionals involved in this area. As a result, a methodology for diagnosis
and improvement was proposed and tested in selected projects. The results obtained show that the main problem of procurement is
related to schedule delays and lack of specified quality for the project. To prevent this situation it is often necessary to dedicate
important resources like money, personnel, time, etc. To monitor and control the process. A great potential for improvement was
detected if state of the art technologies such as, electronic mail, electronic data interchange (EDI), and analysis were applied to the
procurement process. These helped to eliminate the root causes for many types of problems that were detected.
Managing drought short term strategies in semi arid regions a case studyeSAT Journals
Abstract
Drought management needs multidisciplinary action. Interdisciplinary efforts among the experts in various fields of the droughts
prone areas are helpful to achieve tangible and permanent solution for this recurring problem. The Gulbarga district having the total
area around 16, 240 sq.km, and accounts 8.45 per cent of the Karnataka state area. The district has been situated with latitude 17º 19'
60" North and longitude of 76 º 49' 60" east. The district is situated entirely on the Deccan plateau positioned at a height of 300 to
750 m above MSL. Sub-tropical, semi-arid type is one among the drought prone districts of Karnataka State. The drought
management is very important for a district like Gulbarga. In this paper various short term strategies are discussed to mitigate the
drought condition in the district.
Keywords: Drought, South-West monsoon, Semi-Arid, Rainfall, Strategies etc.
Life cycle cost analysis of overlay for an urban road in bangaloreeSAT Journals
Abstract
Pavements are subjected to severe condition of stresses and weathering effects from the day they are constructed and opened to traffic
mainly due to its fatigue behavior and environmental effects. Therefore, pavement rehabilitation is one of the most important
components of entire road systems. This paper highlights the design of concrete pavement with added mono fibers like polypropylene,
steel and hybrid fibres for a widened portion of existing concrete pavement and various overlay alternatives for an existing
bituminous pavement in an urban road in Bangalore. Along with this, Life cycle cost analyses at these sections are done by Net
Present Value (NPV) method to identify the most feasible option. The results show that though the initial cost of construction of
concrete overlay is high, over a period of time it prove to be better than the bituminous overlay considering the whole life cycle cost.
The economic analysis also indicates that, out of the three fibre options, hybrid reinforced concrete would be economical without
compromising the performance of the pavement.
Keywords: - Fatigue, Life cycle cost analysis, Net Present Value method, Overlay, Rehabilitation
Laboratory studies of dense bituminous mixes ii with reclaimed asphalt materialseSAT Journals
Abstract
The issue of growing demand on our nation’s roadways over that past couple of decades, decreasing budgetary funds, and the need to
provide a safe, efficient, and cost effective roadway system has led to a dramatic increase in the need to rehabilitate our existing
pavements and the issue of building sustainable road infrastructure in India. With these emergency of the mentioned needs and this
are today’s burning issue and has become the purpose of the study.
In the present study, the samples of existing bituminous layer materials were collected from NH-48(Devahalli to Hassan) site.The
mixtures were designed by Marshall Method as per Asphalt institute (MS-II) at 20% and 30% Reclaimed Asphalt Pavement (RAP).
RAP material was blended with virgin aggregate such that all specimens tested for the, Dense Bituminous Macadam-II (DBM-II)
gradation as per Ministry of Roads, Transport, and Highways (MoRT&H) and cost analysis were carried out to know the economics.
Laboratory results and analysis showed the use of recycled materials showed significant variability in Marshall Stability, and the
variability increased with the increase in RAP content. The saving can be realized from utilization of recycled materials as per the
methodology, the reduction in the total cost is 19%, 30%, comparing with the virgin mixes.
Keywords: Reclaimed Asphalt Pavement, Marshall Stability, MS-II, Dense Bituminous Macadam-II
Laboratory investigation of expansive soil stabilized with natural inorganic ...eSAT Journals
Abstract
Soil stabilization has proven to be one of the oldest techniques to improve the soil properties. Literature review conducted revealed
that uses of natural inorganic stabilizers are found to be one of the best options for soil stabilization. In this regard an attempt has
been made to evaluate the influence of RBI-81 stabilizer on properties of black cotton soil through laboratory investigations. Black
cotton soil with varying percentages of RBI-81 viz., 0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, and 2.5 percent were studied for moisture density relationships
and strength behaviour of soils. Also the effect of curing period was evaluated as literature review clearly emphasized the strength
gain of soils stabilized with RBI-81 over a period of time. The results obtained shows that the unconfined compressive strength of
specimens treated with RBI-81 increased approximately by 250% for a curing period of 28 days as compared to virgin soil. Further
the CBR value improved approximately by 400%. The studies indicated an increasing trend for soil strength behaviour with
increasing percentage of RBI-81 suggesting its potential applications in soil stabilization.
Influence of reinforcement on the behavior of hollow concrete block masonry p...eSAT Journals
Abstract
Reinforced masonry was developed to exploit the strength potential of masonry and to solve its lack of tensile strength. Experimental
and analytical studies have been carried out to investigate the effect of reinforcement on the behavior of hollow concrete block
masonry prisms under compression and to predict ultimate failure compressive strength. In the numerical program, three dimensional
non-linear finite elements (FE) model based on the micro-modeling approach is developed for both unreinforced and reinforced
masonry prisms using ANSYS (14.5). The proposed FE model uses multi-linear stress-strain relationships to model the non-linear
behavior of hollow concrete block, mortar, and grout. Willam-Warnke’s five parameter failure theory has been adopted to model the
failure of masonry materials. The comparison of the numerical and experimental results indicates that the FE models can successfully
capture the highly nonlinear behavior of the physical specimens and accurately predict their strength and failure mechanisms.
Keywords: Structural masonry, Hollow concrete block prism, grout, Compression failure, Finite element method,
Numerical modeling.
Influence of compaction energy on soil stabilized with chemical stabilizereSAT Journals
Abstract
Increase in traffic along with heavier magnitude of wheel loads cause rapid deterioration in pavements. There is a need to improve
density, strength of soil subgrade and other pavement layers. In this study an attempt is made to improve the properties of locally
available loamy soil using twin approaches viz., i) increasing the compaction of soil and ii) treating the soil with chemical stabilizer.
Laboratory studies are carried out on both untreated and treated soil samples compacted by different compaction efforts. Studies
show that increase in compaction effort results in increase in density of soil. However in soil treated with chemical stabilizer, rate of
increase in density is not significant. The soil treated with chemical stabilizer exhibits improvement in both strength and performance
properties.
Keywords: compaction, density, subgradestabilization, resilient modulus
Geographical information system (gis) for water resources managementeSAT Journals
Abstract
Water resources projects are inherited with overlapping and at times conflicting objectives. These projects are often of varied sizes
ranging from major projects with command areas of millions of hectares to very small projects implemented at the local level. Thus,
in all these projects there is seldom proper coordination which is essential for ensuring collective sustainability.
Integrated watershed development and management is the accepted answer but in turn requires a comprehensive framework that can
enable planning process involving all the stakeholders at different levels and scales is compulsory. Such a unified hydrological
framework is essential to evaluate the cause and effect of all the proposed actions within the drainage basins.
The present paper describes a hydrological framework developed in the form of a Hydrologic Information System (HIS) which is
intended to meet the specific information needs of the various line departments of a typical State connected with water related aspects.
The HIS consist of a hydrologic information database coupled with tools for collating primary and secondary data and tools for
analyzing and visualizing the data and information. The HIS also incorporates hydrological model base for indirect assessment of
various entities of water balance in space and time. The framework would be maintained and updated to reflect fully the most
accurate ground truth data and the infrastructure requirements for planning and management.
Keywords: Hydrological Information System (HIS); WebGIS; Data Model; Web Mapping Services
Forest type mapping of bidar forest division, karnataka using geoinformatics ...eSAT Journals
Abstract
The study demonstrate the potentiality of satellite remote sensing technique for the generation of baseline information on forest types
including tree plantation details in Bidar forest division, Karnataka covering an area of 5814.60Sq.Kms. The Total Area of Bidar
forest division is 5814Sq.Kms analysis of the satellite data in the study area reveals that about 84% of the total area is Covered by
crop land, 1.778% of the area is covered by dry deciduous forest, 1.38 % of mixed plantation, which is very threatening to the
environmental stability of the forest, future plantation site has been mapped. With the use of latest Geo-informatics technology proper
and exact condition of the trees can be observed and necessary precautions can be taken for future plantation works in an appropriate
manner
Keywords:-RS, GIS, GPS, Forest Type, Tree Plantation
Factors influencing compressive strength of geopolymer concreteeSAT Journals
Abstract
To study effects of several factors on the properties of fly ash based geopolymer concrete on the compressive strength and also the
cost comparison with the normal concrete. The test variables were molarities of sodium hydroxide(NaOH) 8M,14M and 16M, ratio of
NaOH to sodium silicate (Na2SiO3) 1, 1.5, 2 and 2.5, alkaline liquid to fly ash ratio 0.35 and 0.40 and replacement of water in
Na2SiO3 solution by 10%, 20% and 30% were used in the present study. The test results indicated that the highest compressive
strength 54 MPa was observed for 16M of NaOH, ratio of NaOH to Na2SiO3 2.5 and alkaline liquid to fly ash ratio of 0.35. Lowest
compressive strength of 27 MPa was observed for 8M of NaOH, ratio of NaOH to Na2SiO3 is 1 and alkaline liquid to fly ash ratio of
0.40. Alkaline liquid to fly ash ratio of 0.35, water replacement of 10% and 30% for 8 and 16 molarity of NaOH and has resulted in
compressive strength of 36 MPa and 20 MPa respectively. Superplasticiser dosage of 2 % by weight of fly ash has given higher
strength in all cases.
Keywords: compressive strength, alkaline liquid, fly ash
Experimental investigation on circular hollow steel columns in filled with li...eSAT Journals
Abstract
Composite Circular hollow Steel tubes with and without GFRP infill for three different grades of Light weight concrete are tested for
ultimate load capacity and axial shortening , under Cyclic loading. Steel tubes are compared for different lengths, cross sections and
thickness. Specimens were tested separately after adopting Taguchi’s L9 (Latin Squares) Orthogonal array in order to save the initial
experimental cost on number of specimens and experimental duration. Analysis was carried out using ANN (Artificial Neural
Network) technique with the assistance of Mini Tab- a statistical soft tool. Comparison for predicted, experimental & ANN output is
obtained from linear regression plots. From this research study, it can be concluded that *Cross sectional area of steel tube has most
significant effect on ultimate load carrying capacity, *as length of steel tube increased- load carrying capacity decreased & *ANN
modeling predicted acceptable results. Thus ANN tool can be utilized for predicting ultimate load carrying capacity for composite
columns.
Keywords: Light weight concrete, GFRP, Artificial Neural Network, Linear Regression, Back propagation, orthogonal
Array, Latin Squares
Experimental behavior of circular hsscfrc filled steel tubular columns under ...eSAT Journals
Abstract
This paper presents an outlook on experimental behavior and a comparison with predicted formula on the behaviour of circular
concentrically loaded self-consolidating fibre reinforced concrete filled steel tube columns (HSSCFRC). Forty-five specimens were
tested. The main parameters varied in the tests are: (1) percentage of fiber (2) tube diameter or width to wall thickness ratio (D/t
from 15 to 25) (3) L/d ratio from 2.97 to 7.04 the results from these predictions were compared with the experimental data. The
experimental results) were also validated in this study.
Keywords: Self-compacting concrete; Concrete-filled steel tube; axial load behavior; Ultimate capacity.
Evaluation of punching shear in flat slabseSAT Journals
Abstract
Flat-slab construction has been widely used in construction today because of many advantages that it offers. The basic philosophy in
the design of flat slab is to consider only gravity forces; this method ignores the effect of punching shear due to unbalanced moments
at the slab column junction which is critical. An attempt has been made to generate generalized design sheets which accounts both
punching shear due to gravity loads and unbalanced moments for cases (a) interior column; (b) edge column (bending perpendicular
to shorter edge); (c) edge column (bending parallel to shorter edge); (d) corner column. These design sheets are prepared as per
codal provisions of IS 456-2000. These design sheets will be helpful in calculating the shear reinforcement to be provided at the
critical section which is ignored in many design offices. Apart from its usefulness in evaluating punching shear and the necessary
shear reinforcement, the design sheets developed will enable the designer to fix the depth of flat slab during the initial phase of the
design.
Keywords: Flat slabs, punching shear, unbalanced moment.
Evaluation of performance of intake tower dam for recent earthquake in indiaeSAT Journals
Abstract
Intake towers are typically tall, hollow, reinforced concrete structures and form entrance to reservoir outlet works. A parametric
study on dynamic behavior of circular cylindrical towers can be carried out to study the effect of depth of submergence, wall thickness
and slenderness ratio, and also effect on tower considering dynamic analysis for time history function of different soil condition and
by Goyal and Chopra accounting interaction effects of added hydrodynamic mass of surrounding and inside water in intake tower of
dam
Key words: Hydrodynamic mass, Depth of submergence, Reservoir, Time history analysis,
Evaluation of operational efficiency of urban road network using travel time ...eSAT Journals
Abstract
Efficiency of the road network system is analyzed by travel time reliability measures. The study overlooks on an important measure of
travel time reliability and prioritizing Tiruchirappalli road network. Traffic volume and travel time were collected using license plate
matching method. Travel time measures were estimated from average travel time and 95th travel time. Effect of non-motorized vehicle
on efficiency of road system was evaluated. Relation between buffer time index and traffic volume was created. Travel time model has
been developed and travel time measure was validated. Then service quality of road sections in network were graded based on
travel time reliability measures.
Keywords: Buffer Time Index (BTI); Average Travel Time (ATT); Travel Time Reliability (TTR); Buffer Time (BT).
Estimation of surface runoff in nallur amanikere watershed using scs cn methodeSAT Journals
Abstract
The development of watershed aims at productive utilization of all the available natural resources in the entire area extending from
ridge line to stream outlet. The per capita availability of land for cultivation has been decreasing over the years. Therefore, water and
the related land resources must be developed, utilized and managed in an integrated and comprehensive manner. Remote sensing and
GIS techniques are being increasingly used for planning, management and development of natural resources. The study area, Nallur
Amanikere watershed geographically lies between 110 38’ and 110 52’ N latitude and 760 30’ and 760 50’ E longitude with an area of
415.68 Sq. km. The thematic layers such as land use/land cover and soil maps were derived from remotely sensed data and overlayed
through ArcGIS software to assign the curve number on polygon wise. The daily rainfall data of six rain gauge stations in and around
the watershed (2001-2011) was used to estimate the daily runoff from the watershed using Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number
(SCS-CN) method. The runoff estimated from the SCS-CN model was then used to know the variation of runoff potential with different
land use/land cover and with different soil conditions.
Keywords: Watershed, Nallur watershed, Surface runoff, Rainfall-Runoff, SCS-CN, Remote Sensing, GIS.
Estimation of morphometric parameters and runoff using rs & gis techniqueseSAT Journals
Abstract
Land and water are the two vital natural resources, the optimal management of these resources with minimum adverse environmental
impact are essential not only for sustainable development but also for human survival. Satellite remote sensing with geographic
information system has a pragmatic approach to map and generate spatial input layers of predicting response behavior and yield of
watershed. Hence, in the present study an attempt has been made to understand the hydrological process of the catchment at the
watershed level by drawing the inferences from moprhometric analysis and runoff. The study area chosen for the present study is
Yagachi catchment situated in Chickamaglur and Hassan district lies geographically at a longitude 75⁰52’08.77”E and
13⁰10’50.77”N latitude. It covers an area of 559.493 Sq.km. Morphometric analysis is carried out to estimate morphometric
parameters at Micro-watershed to understand the hydrological response of the catchment at the Micro-watershed level. Daily runoff
is estimated using USDA SCS curve number model for a period of 10 years from 2001 to 2010. The rainfall runoff relationship of the
study shows there is a positive correlation.
Keywords: morphometric analysis, runoff, remote sensing and GIS, SCS - method
-
Effect of variation of plastic hinge length on the results of non linear anal...eSAT Journals
Abstract The nonlinear Static procedure also well known as pushover analysis is method where in monotonically increasing loads are applied to the structure till the structure is unable to resist any further load. It is a popular tool for seismic performance evaluation of existing and new structures. In literature lot of research has been carried out on conventional pushover analysis and after knowing deficiency efforts have been made to improve it. But actual test results to verify the analytically obtained pushover results are rarely available. It has been found that some amount of variation is always expected to exist in seismic demand prediction of pushover analysis. Initial study is carried out by considering user defined hinge properties and default hinge length. Attempt is being made to assess the variation of pushover analysis results by considering user defined hinge properties and various hinge length formulations available in literature and results compared with experimentally obtained results based on test carried out on a G+2 storied RCC framed structure. For the present study two geometric models viz bare frame and rigid frame model is considered and it is found that the results of pushover analysis are very sensitive to geometric model and hinge length adopted. Keywords: Pushover analysis, Base shear, Displacement, hinge length, moment curvature analysis
Effect of use of recycled materials on indirect tensile strength of asphalt c...eSAT Journals
Abstract
Depletion of natural resources and aggregate quarries for the road construction is a serious problem to procure materials. Hence
recycling or reuse of material is beneficial. On emphasizing development in sustainable construction in the present era, recycling of
asphalt pavements is one of the effective and proven rehabilitation processes. For the laboratory investigations reclaimed asphalt
pavement (RAP) from NH-4 and crumb rubber modified binder (CRMB-55) was used. Foundry waste was used as a replacement to
conventional filler. Laboratory tests were conducted on asphalt concrete mixes with 30, 40, 50, and 60 percent replacement with RAP.
These test results were compared with conventional mixes and asphalt concrete mixes with complete binder extracted RAP
aggregates. Mix design was carried out by Marshall Method. The Marshall Tests indicated highest stability values for asphalt
concrete (AC) mixes with 60% RAP. The optimum binder content (OBC) decreased with increased in RAP in AC mixes. The Indirect
Tensile Strength (ITS) for AC mixes with RAP also was found to be higher when compared to conventional AC mixes at 300C.
Keywords: Reclaimed asphalt pavement, Foundry waste, Recycling, Marshall Stability, Indirect tensile strength.
Saudi Arabia stands as a titan in the global energy landscape, renowned for its abundant oil and gas resources. It's the largest exporter of petroleum and holds some of the world's most significant reserves. Let's delve into the top 10 oil and gas projects shaping Saudi Arabia's energy future in 2024.
Democratizing Fuzzing at Scale by Abhishek Aryaabh.arya
Presented at NUS: Fuzzing and Software Security Summer School 2024
This keynote talks about the democratization of fuzzing at scale, highlighting the collaboration between open source communities, academia, and industry to advance the field of fuzzing. It delves into the history of fuzzing, the development of scalable fuzzing platforms, and the empowerment of community-driven research. The talk will further discuss recent advancements leveraging AI/ML and offer insights into the future evolution of the fuzzing landscape.
COLLEGE BUS MANAGEMENT SYSTEM PROJECT REPORT.pdfKamal Acharya
The College Bus Management system is completely developed by Visual Basic .NET Version. The application is connect with most secured database language MS SQL Server. The application is develop by using best combination of front-end and back-end languages. The application is totally design like flat user interface. This flat user interface is more attractive user interface in 2017. The application is gives more important to the system functionality. The application is to manage the student’s details, driver’s details, bus details, bus route details, bus fees details and more. The application has only one unit for admin. The admin can manage the entire application. The admin can login into the application by using username and password of the admin. The application is develop for big and small colleges. It is more user friendly for non-computer person. Even they can easily learn how to manage the application within hours. The application is more secure by the admin. The system will give an effective output for the VB.Net and SQL Server given as input to the system. The compiled java program given as input to the system, after scanning the program will generate different reports. The application generates the report for users. The admin can view and download the report of the data. The application deliver the excel format reports. Because, excel formatted reports is very easy to understand the income and expense of the college bus. This application is mainly develop for windows operating system users. In 2017, 73% of people enterprises are using windows operating system. So the application will easily install for all the windows operating system users. The application-developed size is very low. The application consumes very low space in disk. Therefore, the user can allocate very minimum local disk space for this application.
Welcome to WIPAC Monthly the magazine brought to you by the LinkedIn Group Water Industry Process Automation & Control.
In this month's edition, along with this month's industry news to celebrate the 13 years since the group was created we have articles including
A case study of the used of Advanced Process Control at the Wastewater Treatment works at Lleida in Spain
A look back on an article on smart wastewater networks in order to see how the industry has measured up in the interim around the adoption of Digital Transformation in the Water Industry.
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Event Management System Vb Net Project Report.pdfKamal Acharya
In present era, the scopes of information technology growing with a very fast .We do not see any are untouched from this industry. The scope of information technology has become wider includes: Business and industry. Household Business, Communication, Education, Entertainment, Science, Medicine, Engineering, Distance Learning, Weather Forecasting. Carrier Searching and so on.
My project named “Event Management System” is software that store and maintained all events coordinated in college. It also helpful to print related reports. My project will help to record the events coordinated by faculties with their Name, Event subject, date & details in an efficient & effective ways.
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Quality defects in TMT Bars, Possible causes and Potential Solutions.PrashantGoswami42
Maintaining high-quality standards in the production of TMT bars is crucial for ensuring structural integrity in construction. Addressing common defects through careful monitoring, standardized processes, and advanced technology can significantly improve the quality of TMT bars. Continuous training and adherence to quality control measures will also play a pivotal role in minimizing these defects.
Application of mathematical modelling in rainfall forcast a csae study in sgs. sarawak basi
1. IJRET: International Journal of Research in Engineering and Technology eISSN:2319-1163 | pISSN: 2321-7308
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Volume: 03 Issue: 11 | Nov-2014, Available @ http://www.ijret.org 316
APPLICATION OF MATHEMATICAL MODELLING IN RAINFALL
FORCAST: A CSAE STUDY IN SGS. SARAWAK BASIN
Beatrice C.B1
, Nasser R. Afshar2
, Selaman O. S3
, H.Fahmi4
1
Lecturer, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Sarawak, Malaysia
2
Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, Sarawak, Malaysia
3
Senior Lecturer, Department of Civil Engineering, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, Sarawak, Malaysia
4
Deputy, Water and Wastewater Planning Bureau, Ministry of Energy, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
Malaysia receives rainfall from 2000 mm to 4000 mm annually where it is greatly influenced by two monsoon periods in
November to March and May to September. The state of Sarawak is well known for its long and wide rivers. Numerous activities
such as commercial, industrial and residential can always be found in the vicinity of the rivers. The activities have started since
decades ago and still continue to grow and spatially expanding through times providing incomes ranging from small farmers to
the largest corporations. Unfortunately, these areas are expected to experience frequent flood events as well as possible receding
water level in rivers based on the findings of previous studies. If the projections are accurate, the productivity of these activities
will be reduced, hence, in a longer term may affect the economy of the state as whole as well. Therefore, there is an urgent need
for existing knowledge on rainfall behavior to be revised as effects of climate change with the intention that the state can fully
utilize the favorable conditions and make scientific based decisions in the future.
Recent study reveals that the Fourier series (FS), has the ability to simulate long-term rainfall up to 300 years is viewed as an
important finding in the study of rainfall forecast. Long-term rainfall forecasting is viewed to be beneficial to the state of
Sarawak in its future planning in various sectors such as water supply, flood mitigation, river transportation as well as
agriculture. The main goal of the study is to apply a mathematical modeling in rainfall forecasting for the Sungai Sarawak basin.
Data from eight rain gauge stations was analyzed and prepared for missing data, consistency check and adequacy of number of
stations. Simple statistical analysis was conducted on the data such as maximum, minimum, mean and standard deviation. 27
years of annual rainfall data were simulated with the Fourier Series equation using spreadsheet. Hence, the result was compared
with the Fitting N-term Harmonic Series. The model result reveals that the Fourier Series has the ability to simulate the observed
data by being able to describe the rainfall pattern and there is a reasonable relationship between the simulation and observed
data with p-value of 0.93.
Keywords: Fourier series, Mathematical modeling, N-term Harmonic Series, Rainfall forecast, long-term)
--------------------------------------------------------------------***----------------------------------------------------------------------
1. INTRODUCTION
Recent regional climate projects that the mean sea level,
temperature and rainfall variability in all regions will
increase in the future. Sammathuria [1] have used Regional
Hydro – Climate Model for Peninsular Malaysia (RHCM)
and Providing Regional Climater for Impact Studies
(PRECIS) to project the annual precipitation anomaly,
December-January-February (DJF) seasonal precipitation
anomaly and annual rain days projections for the year 2000
to 2099. The significant interdecadal variation detected in all
simulations suggested that there would be a long-term
extended dry spells. Sarawak is predicted to experience
negative annual precipitation for forty years. Therefore,
there is an urgent need for existing knowledge on rainfall
behavior to be revised as effects of climate change with the
intention that the state can fully utilize the favorable
conditions and make scientific based decisions in the future.
Further study in rainfall forecasting focusing on the state of
Sarawak is crucial to improve the estimation accuracy for
long-term rainfall prediction for the purpose of planning and
management in various sectors where rain is considered as a
major driving factor such as agriculture and water resources.
Recent study by Rostam Afshar and Fahmi [2] reveals the
ability of Fourier Series to simulate long-term rainfall up to
300 years is viewed as an important finding in the study of
rainfall forecast. For this reason, the main goal of the study
is to simulate rainfall using Fourier Series for Sarawak River
Basin hence verify the simulation result using statistical
tests.
Studies on rainfall forecast are observed to be more active
on conceptual models that may be due to the reason such
models do not need to consider the physics of the rainfall
processes and only requires the historical data as input [3].
However, the inability of the model to predict any changes
that did not occur in the past has limited its pattern
recognition method [4]. Maier and Dandy[5] stated that
since the conventional statistical approach is difficult to be
applied in real life, practitioners are found to be using ANN
modeling in their studies. ANN is limited to short-term
forecasting where it is found to be a very reliable tool in a
flood warning system. Nevertheless, there is a shortcoming
2. IJRET: International Journal of Research in Engineering and Technology eISSN:2319-1163 | pISSN: 2321-7308
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Volume: 03 Issue: 11 | Nov-2014, Available @ http://www.ijret.org 317
in its application where “there is a tendency among users to
throw a problem blindly at a neural network in the hope that
it will formulate an acceptable solution [6]. The introduction
of ANN into hydrologic modeling has been more than
welcome because it allows any researcher to conduct rainfall
modeling study regardless of his area of expertise.
A review done by Gooijer and Hyndman [7] for Elsevier,
reveals that from the year 1985 to 2005 there were active
research activities on time series forecasting whereby one-
third of the papers published were related to models such as
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and
Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
(SARIMA). Regardless of the type of model applied, time
series plays an important role in hydrological modeling
where all literatures in this study have incorporated time
series as part of their data analysis. Time series is significant
in rainfall characterization and with statistical analysis; it is
viewed that the results of models will be further improved
Wang et al. [8], Soon and Sheau [9], Tarpanelli et al. [10]
and Wu and Chau [11]. Time series is favorable as a part in
a model structure to describe data using summary statistics
and graphical methods, to find suitable statistical models to
describe the data generating process, to estimate the future
values of a series and controlling a given process
Radhakrish [12]. In addition, it has the ability to capture
long-term changes hence producing long term forecasting.
This can be seen as an approach to overcome the limitation
of most models.
Fourier Series (FS) is an infinite expansion of a function of
sins and cosines whereby in physics and engineering, such
expansion is useful as functions can be easily manipulated
especially for discontinuous functions. FS is widely applied
in fields such as electronics, quantum mechanics, and
electrodynamics.
Literature review reveals that FS is normally used as an
analysis tool in any hydrologic concerning periodicity.
Anderson et al. [13] used FS as a tool to reduce parameters
in PARMA models for river flow study which gave positive
result whereby a synthetic flow was able to be produced
with all statistical data features. Studies indicated that FS is
used as part of the analysis but not as a hydrologic model.
Suhaila and Jemain [14] conducted a study to model
quantitative daily rainfall by using smooth technique in
Peninsular Malaysia. FS was used as the approach and the
performance of FS in describing seasonal behavior was
measured with its deviance. The study concluded that
smoothing techniques with FS approach was able to
describe the rainfall pattern based on mean rainfall per rainy
day despite the limitation on the probability of rainy events
and the effect of preceding day which could have been dry
or wet.
Yusof et al. [15] used Neyman Scott Rectangular Pulse
Model (NSRP) for rainfall simulation. However, the model
is limited to stationary variables in addition; the model also
requires an approximate of 84 parameters in a year.
Therefore, FS is used to present the seasonal pattern with
smaller number of coefficients to be estimated. The study
stated that FS is able to capture the statistical characteristics
of the rainfall as well as economical alternative to describe
rainfall.
2. MATERIAL AND METHOD
2.1 Fourier Series
𝒇 𝒙 = 𝒂 𝟎 + 𝒂 𝒏 𝐜𝐨𝐬
𝒏𝝅𝒙
𝑳
+ 𝒃 𝒏 𝐬𝐢𝐧
𝒏𝝅𝒙
𝑳
∞
𝒏=𝟏
(1)
𝒂 𝒏 =
𝟏
𝑳
𝒇 𝒙 𝒄𝒐𝒔
𝒏𝝅𝒙
𝑳
𝒅𝒙
𝑳
−𝑳
(2)
𝒃 𝒏 =
𝟏
𝑳
𝒇 𝒙 𝒔𝒊𝒏
𝒏𝝅𝒙
𝑳
𝒅𝒙
𝑳
−𝑳
(3)
𝒂 𝟎 =
𝟏
𝑳
𝒇 𝒙 𝒅𝒙
𝑳
−𝑳
(4)
2.2 Modelling
Daily rainfall data of fifteen rain gauge stations was
obtained from the Kota Samarahan Department of Irrigation
& Drainage (DID) i.e. Padawan, Sembam, Bau, Kuching
Airport, Matang, Kuching Third Mile, Sungai China and
Rampangi.
The data was screened and checked for adequacy of number
of stations. Hence, estimation of missing data was
determined and Double Mass Curve was adopted to test for
the consistency of record where five stations i.e. Kuching
Third Mile, Bau, Kuching Airport, Rampangi and Matang
were selected as the base stations to check the consistency
of Padawan, Sungai China and Sembam stations records.
The point rainfall data was then converted to mean areal
rainfall by using Thiessen-Polygon Method.
The annual rainfall data was analyzed to determine a
function that represents the data based on the mean value as
well as the corresponding coefficients. Model simulation
was done using spreadsheet for n = 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4.
Observed and simulation model were compared from the
year 2003 to 2011 (Figure 1). The simulation result was
evaluated for x 2
and RMS and compared with the observed
data as well as simulation result using Fitting N-term
Harmonic Series Rostam Afshar and Fahmi [2].
Fig -1: Simulation output for 2003 – 2011
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Volume: 03 Issue: 11 | Nov-2014, Available @ http://www.ijret.org 318
Figure 1 shows that although, the simulation was unable to
accurately match the observed data, however, the model had
succeeded in simulating the pattern of the observed rainfall
where the simulated data was found to be closely scattered
near to the mean value. Refinement in the analysis of data
such as using moving average will further enhance the
ability of the model to describe the pattern of the rainfall.
Sensitivity analysis was conducted using three different
numbers of harmonic i.e. 2, 3 and 4 (Table 1). x2
was tested
for two tailed test with α of 5%. Results of statistics tests
indicate that the model has the ability to simulate the rainfall
for the study area with x2
of 2.95 and a p-value of 0.93.
Executing the model at n equals to 2 and 4 were rejected due
to the lack of evidence that the relationship between
observed and simulation existed, x2
2.68 and 1.02
respectively. In terms of relationship, n = 3 showed the most
reasonable relationship among all three numbers of
harmonic, however, refinement of modelling is required
based on the value of RMSE i.e. 1133 mm.
Table -1: RMSE and x2
for n = 2, 3 and 4
n RMSE 𝜒2
2 1054 2.68
3 1134 2.98
4 1070 1.02
Comparing the observed rainfall to Fitting N-term Harmonic
Series, it is predicted that in the future, the observed rainfall
might follow the trend of the mean rainfall. The x2
and
RMSE attained were 6.034 and 9.821 respectively. The
result from Fitting N-term Harmonic Series (Table 2)
showed better relationship and less error when compared to
the simulation executed with spreadsheet. This is due to
flexibility of the application to select wide range of average
number of harmonic series and harmonic number as well as
more refine data input i.e. monthly data compared to annual
data.
Table 2: Observed, Simulation, Harmonic Series result for
2011
Observe
d
Simulati
on
Max. Min. First
run
Mean
3821 4347 4062 3500 3772 3779
3. CONCLUSION
The model was able to simulate the observed rainfall pattern
with reasonable accuracy with the help of suitable computer
program. This is proven by the improvement of RMSE and
x2
values with the application of Fitting N-term Harmonic
Series. It is viewed that the result of the study was greatly
influenced by the selection of approach in data processing.
Data processing is crucial in rainfall modelling to smooth
the noise in the data. For easier simulation, the stochastic
component of the rainfall must be properly removed to
simulate the deterministic component of rain. The Double
Mass Curve used in the study is considered to be
insufficient.
The goal and objectives of the study have been achieved
where the simulation results showed a reasonable
relationship between observed and simulation data.
Therefore, FS has the potential to be further improved for
the purpose of long-term rainfall forecast. Nonetheless,
refinement data analysis and selection of suitable data
processing tool and computer program are required for
future study.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors would like to thank the Department of Civil
Engineering UNIMAS and the Faculty of Civil Engineering
UiTM Sarawak for their continuous support and kindness;
as well as the Department of Irrigation and Drainage
Sarawak for providing the required hydrology data as well
as technical knowledge.
REFERENCES
[1]. Sammathuria, M. K. Kwok, L. L. & Wan Hassan, W. A.
(2010). Extreme Climate Change Scenarios over Malaysia
for 2001 – 2099. [Online] Available at:
http://www.met.gov.my/index.php?option=com_content&ta
sk=view&id=2563&Itemid=1947
[2]. Rostam Afshar, N. & Fahmi, H. (2012). Rainfall
Forecasting Using Fourier Series. Journal of Civil
Engineering & Architecture. 16. 44.
[3]. Luk, K. C., Ball, J. E. & Sharma, A. (2001). An
Application of Artificial Neural Networks For Rainfall
Forecasting. Mathematical and Computer Modeling. 33.
683-693.
[4]. Wei, C. H. (2008). Rainfall Forecasting By
Technological Machine Models. Applied Mathematics and
Computation, 200. 41-57.
[5]. Maier, H. R. & Dandy, G. C. (2000). Neural Networks
for Prediction and Forecasting of Water Resources
Variables: A Review of Modeling Issues and Applications.
Environmental Modeling & Software. 15. 101-124.
[6]. Flood, I. & Kartam, N. (1994). Neural Networks in
Civil Engineering. I: Principles and understanding. Journal
of Computing in Civil Engineering. 8. 131-148.
[7]. Gooijer, J. G. & Hyndman, R. J. (2006). 25 Years of
Time Series Forecasting. International Journal of
Forecasting. 22. 443-473.
[8]. Wang, S., Feng, J. & Liu, G. (2011). Application of
Seasonal Time Series Model in the Precipitation Forecast.
Mathematical and Computer Modeling. [Online] Available
at: doi:10.1016/j.mcm.2011.10.034.
[9]. Soon, K. T. & Sheau, Y. S. (1997). Synthetic
Generation of Tropical Rainfall Time Series Using an
Event-Based Method. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering. 2,
83-89.
[10]. Tarpanelli, A., Franchini, M., Brocca, L., Camici, S.,
Melone, F. & Moramarco, T. (2012). A Simple Approach
For Stochastic Generation Of Spatial Rainfall Patterns.
Journal of Hydrology. 472-473. 63-76.
4. IJRET: International Journal of Research in Engineering and Technology eISSN:2319-1163 | pISSN: 2321-7308
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[11]. Wu, C. L. & Chau, K. W. (2012). Prediction of
Rainfall Time Series Using Modular Soft Computing
Methods. Engineering Applications of Artificial
Intelligence. [Online] Avilabale at:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.engappai.2012.05.023
[12]. Radhakrishnan, P. & Dinesh, S. (2006). An Alternative
Approach to Characterize Time Series Data: Case Study On
Malaysian Rainfall Data. Chaos Solitons & Fractals.27.
511-518.
[13]. Anderson, P. L., Tesfaye, Y. G. & Meerschaert.
(2007). Fourier-PARMA Models and Their Application to
River Flows. Journal of Hydrologic Engineerin. 12. 462 –
472.
[14]. Suhaila, J. & Jemain, A. A. (2009). A Comparison of
the Rainfall Patterns Between Stations on the East and the
West Coasts of Peninsular Malaysia using the Smoothing
Model of Rainfall Amounts. Meteorological Applications.
16. 391 – 401.
[15]. Yusof, F., Abas, N. & Daud, Z. M. (2008). Fourier
Series in a Neyman Scott Rectangular Pulse Model.
Matematika. 24-2.243–257.
BIOGRAPHIES
Beatrice Bidaun graduated in Master of
Engineering (Civil), UNIMAS and
currently working as a Lecturer with
UiTM Sarawak under the Faculty of Civil
Engineering
Associate Professor Dr. Nasser is
specialized in Hydraulic Structures. He
has in his credit teaching, research,
industrial, and managerial within the
government experiences of more than
thirty years in the field of Hydraulic
structures, Hydropower, sedimentation, Hydrology, flood
control, Water Resources Planning and Value Engineering.
Dr. Selaman, O. S. is a Senior Lecturer
in the Department of Civil Engineering
at the Faculty of Engineering in
Universiti Malaysia Sarawak
(UNIMAS). Before joining the
University, she had been working as a
Civil Engineer for five years at a local
consulting firm. Her area of specialization is in Engineering
Hydrology, particularly in watershed characteristics, rainfall
analysis, flood frequency analysis, and peak discharge
estimation at small scale watershed.
Dr. H. Fahmi has been appointed as
senior lecturer in the Department of
Science and Research in University of
Tehran. At present he is Deputy of
Water and Wastewater Planning Bureau
of Ministry of Energy in Iran. He has
experiences of teaching and research
more than thirty years in the field of water resources
engineering and management, Hydrology and flood
mitigation.