ABSTRACT:- In arid regions, extreme rainfall event frequency predictions are still a challenging problem, because of the rain gauge stations scarcity and the record length limitation, which are usually short to insure reliable quantile estimates. Regional frequency analysis is one of the popular approaches used to compensate the data limitation. In this paper, regional frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfall is investigated for Madinah province in the Western Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The observed maximum daily rainfall records of 20 rainfall stations are selected from 1968 to 2015. The rainfall data is evaluated using four tests, namely, Discordance test (Di), Homogeneity test (H), Goodness of fit test (Zdist) and L-moment ratios diagram (LMRD). The Di of L-moments shows that all the sites belong to one group (Di <3.0).><1). Finally, the Zdist is used to evaluate five probability distribution functions (PDFs) including generalized logistic (GLO), generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized normal (GNO), generalized Pareto (GPA), and Pearson Type III (PE3). Zdist and LMRD both showed that PE3 distribution is the best among the other PDFs. The regional parameters of the candidate PDF are computed using L-moments approach and accordingly the regional dimensionless growth curve is developed. The results enhance the accuracy of extreme rainfall prediction at-sites and also they can be used for ungauged catchment in the region.
International Journal of Computational Engineering Research(IJCER)ijceronline
International Journal of Computational Engineering Research(IJCER) is an intentional online Journal in English monthly publishing journal. This Journal publish original research work that contributes significantly to further the scientific knowledge in engineering and Technology.
ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF SPATIAL INTERPOLATION OF RAINFALL ON THE STREAMFLOW ...civej
Precipitation within a river basin varies spatially and temporally and hence, is the most relevant input for
hydrologic modelling. Various interpolation methods exist to distribute rainfall spatially within a basin.
The sparse distribution of raingauge stations within a river basin and the differences in interpolation
methods can potentially impact the streamflow simulated using a hydrologic model. The present study
focuses on assessing the effect of spatial interpolation of rainfall using Theissen polygon, Inverse distance
weighted (IDW) method and Ordinary Kriging on the streamflow simulated using a physically based
spatially distributed model-SHETRAN in Vamanapuram river basin in Southern Kerala, India. The
SHETRAN model in the present study utilises rainfall data from the available rain gauge stations within the
basin and potential evapo-transpiration calculated using Penman-Monteith method, along with other input
parameters like soil and landuse. Four years of rainfall and evapo-transpiration data on a daily scale is
used for model calibration and one year data for validation. The performance of the different spatial
interpolation methods were assessed based on the Mean Annual flow and statistical parameters like NashSutcliffe
Efficiency, coefficient of determination. The ordinary kriging and IDW methods were found to be
satisfactory in the spatial interpolation of rainfall.
Rainfall-Runoff Modelling using Modified NRCS-CN,RS and GIS -A Case StudyIJERA Editor
Study of rainfall and runoff for any area and modeling it, is one of the important aspects for planning and
development of water resources. The development of water resources and its effective management plays a vital
role in development of any country more particularly in India, which is an agricultural based economy. Hence it
is intended to develop a model of Rainfall and runoff to a river basin and also apply the methodology to Sarada
River Basin which has drainage area of 1252.99 Sq.km. The basin is situated in Vishakhapatnam district of
Andhra Pradesh, India. The rainfall and runoff data has been collected from the gauging stations of the basin
apart from rainfall data from nearby stations. MNRCS-CN method has been adopted to calculate runoff. Various
hydrological parameters like soil information, rainfall, land use and land cover (LU/LC) were considered to use
in MNRCS-CN method. The depth of runoff has been computed for different land use patterns using, IRS-P4-
LISS IV data for the study area. Based on the analysis, land use/land cover pattern of Sarada River Basin has
been prepared. The land use/land cover patterns were also visually interpreted and digitized using ERDAS
IMAGINE software. The raster data was processed in ERDAS and geo-referenced and various maps viz. LU/LC
maps, drainage map, contour map, DEM (Digital elevation model) have been generated apart from rainfall
potential map using GIS tool. The estimated runoff using MNRCS-CN model has been simulated and compared
with that of actual runoff. The performance of the model is found to be good for the data considered. The
coefficient of determination R2
value for the observed runoff and that of the computed runoff is found to be
more than 0.72 for the selected watershed basin.
Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves and RegionalisationAM Publications
Storm sewers make up a large percentage of drainage system in an urban setup. The design of these
components are based on rainfall intensities of a specific design period for that location. These can be derived from
intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationship. These IDF relationships are derived from historical rainfall, using
an extreme value distribution for maximum rainfall intensity. In the present study the IDF curves and parameter
regionalisation were studied for various kinds of basins. These equation parameters can be then used to understand
the spatial variation of rainfall intensity in the study area. The parameter contour maps subsequently generated using
various interpolation method are then used for plotting IDF curves for any ungauged station in the basin.
On March 11, 2016, ICLR held a Friday Forum workshop entitled 'Mapping extreme rainfall statistics for Canada', led by Dr. Slobodan Simonovic of Western University.
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, affecting rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve information used in the design, maintenance and operation of water infrastructure in Canada. Presented in this lecture are analyses of precipitation data from 567 Environment Canada hydro-meteorological stations using the IDF_CC tool. Results for the year 2100 based on Canadian climate model and an ensemble of 22 GCMs have been generated. A spatial interpolation method was used to produce Canadian precipitation maps for events of various return periods. Results based on the Canadian climate model indicate a reduction in extreme precipitation in central regions of Canada and increases in other regions. Relative to the ensemble approach, the Canadian climate model results (a) suggest more spatial variability in change of IDFs, and (b) the ensemble approach generated generally lower values than the Canadian climate model.
Dr. Simonovic has extensive research, teaching and consulting experience in water resources systems engineering. He teaches courses in water resources and civil engineering systems. He actively works for national and international professional organizations. Dr. Simonovic’s primary research interest focuses on the application of systems approach to management of complex water and environmental systems. Most of his work is related to the integration of risk, reliability, and uncertainty in hydrology and water resources management. He has received a number of awards for excellence in teaching, research and outreach. He has published over 450 professional publications and three major textbooks. He was inducted to the Canadian Academy of Engineering in June of 2013.
Runoff is one of the most significant hydrological variables used in most of the water resources applications. Physiographically the area is characterized by undulating topography with plains and valleys. The Soil Conservation Service Curve Numbers also known as hydrologic soil group method were used in this study. This method is adaptable and suitable approach for quick runoff estimation and is approximately easy to use with minimum data and it gives good result. From the study yearly rainfall and runoff were estimated easily. The study area covers an area of 466.02 km2, having maximum length of 36.5 km. The maximum and minimum elevation of the basin is 569 m and 341 m above MSL, respectively.
International Journal of Computational Engineering Research(IJCER)ijceronline
International Journal of Computational Engineering Research(IJCER) is an intentional online Journal in English monthly publishing journal. This Journal publish original research work that contributes significantly to further the scientific knowledge in engineering and Technology.
ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF SPATIAL INTERPOLATION OF RAINFALL ON THE STREAMFLOW ...civej
Precipitation within a river basin varies spatially and temporally and hence, is the most relevant input for
hydrologic modelling. Various interpolation methods exist to distribute rainfall spatially within a basin.
The sparse distribution of raingauge stations within a river basin and the differences in interpolation
methods can potentially impact the streamflow simulated using a hydrologic model. The present study
focuses on assessing the effect of spatial interpolation of rainfall using Theissen polygon, Inverse distance
weighted (IDW) method and Ordinary Kriging on the streamflow simulated using a physically based
spatially distributed model-SHETRAN in Vamanapuram river basin in Southern Kerala, India. The
SHETRAN model in the present study utilises rainfall data from the available rain gauge stations within the
basin and potential evapo-transpiration calculated using Penman-Monteith method, along with other input
parameters like soil and landuse. Four years of rainfall and evapo-transpiration data on a daily scale is
used for model calibration and one year data for validation. The performance of the different spatial
interpolation methods were assessed based on the Mean Annual flow and statistical parameters like NashSutcliffe
Efficiency, coefficient of determination. The ordinary kriging and IDW methods were found to be
satisfactory in the spatial interpolation of rainfall.
Rainfall-Runoff Modelling using Modified NRCS-CN,RS and GIS -A Case StudyIJERA Editor
Study of rainfall and runoff for any area and modeling it, is one of the important aspects for planning and
development of water resources. The development of water resources and its effective management plays a vital
role in development of any country more particularly in India, which is an agricultural based economy. Hence it
is intended to develop a model of Rainfall and runoff to a river basin and also apply the methodology to Sarada
River Basin which has drainage area of 1252.99 Sq.km. The basin is situated in Vishakhapatnam district of
Andhra Pradesh, India. The rainfall and runoff data has been collected from the gauging stations of the basin
apart from rainfall data from nearby stations. MNRCS-CN method has been adopted to calculate runoff. Various
hydrological parameters like soil information, rainfall, land use and land cover (LU/LC) were considered to use
in MNRCS-CN method. The depth of runoff has been computed for different land use patterns using, IRS-P4-
LISS IV data for the study area. Based on the analysis, land use/land cover pattern of Sarada River Basin has
been prepared. The land use/land cover patterns were also visually interpreted and digitized using ERDAS
IMAGINE software. The raster data was processed in ERDAS and geo-referenced and various maps viz. LU/LC
maps, drainage map, contour map, DEM (Digital elevation model) have been generated apart from rainfall
potential map using GIS tool. The estimated runoff using MNRCS-CN model has been simulated and compared
with that of actual runoff. The performance of the model is found to be good for the data considered. The
coefficient of determination R2
value for the observed runoff and that of the computed runoff is found to be
more than 0.72 for the selected watershed basin.
Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves and RegionalisationAM Publications
Storm sewers make up a large percentage of drainage system in an urban setup. The design of these
components are based on rainfall intensities of a specific design period for that location. These can be derived from
intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationship. These IDF relationships are derived from historical rainfall, using
an extreme value distribution for maximum rainfall intensity. In the present study the IDF curves and parameter
regionalisation were studied for various kinds of basins. These equation parameters can be then used to understand
the spatial variation of rainfall intensity in the study area. The parameter contour maps subsequently generated using
various interpolation method are then used for plotting IDF curves for any ungauged station in the basin.
On March 11, 2016, ICLR held a Friday Forum workshop entitled 'Mapping extreme rainfall statistics for Canada', led by Dr. Slobodan Simonovic of Western University.
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, affecting rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve information used in the design, maintenance and operation of water infrastructure in Canada. Presented in this lecture are analyses of precipitation data from 567 Environment Canada hydro-meteorological stations using the IDF_CC tool. Results for the year 2100 based on Canadian climate model and an ensemble of 22 GCMs have been generated. A spatial interpolation method was used to produce Canadian precipitation maps for events of various return periods. Results based on the Canadian climate model indicate a reduction in extreme precipitation in central regions of Canada and increases in other regions. Relative to the ensemble approach, the Canadian climate model results (a) suggest more spatial variability in change of IDFs, and (b) the ensemble approach generated generally lower values than the Canadian climate model.
Dr. Simonovic has extensive research, teaching and consulting experience in water resources systems engineering. He teaches courses in water resources and civil engineering systems. He actively works for national and international professional organizations. Dr. Simonovic’s primary research interest focuses on the application of systems approach to management of complex water and environmental systems. Most of his work is related to the integration of risk, reliability, and uncertainty in hydrology and water resources management. He has received a number of awards for excellence in teaching, research and outreach. He has published over 450 professional publications and three major textbooks. He was inducted to the Canadian Academy of Engineering in June of 2013.
Runoff is one of the most significant hydrological variables used in most of the water resources applications. Physiographically the area is characterized by undulating topography with plains and valleys. The Soil Conservation Service Curve Numbers also known as hydrologic soil group method were used in this study. This method is adaptable and suitable approach for quick runoff estimation and is approximately easy to use with minimum data and it gives good result. From the study yearly rainfall and runoff were estimated easily. The study area covers an area of 466.02 km2, having maximum length of 36.5 km. The maximum and minimum elevation of the basin is 569 m and 341 m above MSL, respectively.
Flood frequency analysis of river kosi, uttarakhand, india using statistical ...eSAT Journals
Abstract In the present study, flood frequency analysis has been applied for river Kosi in Uttarakhand. The river Kosi is an important tributary of Ganga river system, which arising from Koshimool near Kausani, Almora district flows on the western side of the study area and to meet at Ramganga River. The annual flood series analysis has been carried out to estimate the flood quantiles at different return period at Kosi barrage site of river Kosi. The statistical approach provided a significant advantage of estimation of flood at any sites in the homogenous region with very less or no data. In the at –site analysis of annual flood series the Normal, Log normal, Pearson type III, Log Pearson type III, Gumbel and Log Gumbel distribution were applied using method of moments . From the analysis of different goodness of fit tests, it has been found that the Log Gumbel distribution with method of moment as parameters estimation found to be the best-fit distribution for Kosi River and other sites in the region. It is recommended that the regional parameters for Kosi Basin may be used only for primary estimation of flood and should be reviewed when more regional data available. Keywords: Flood Frequency Analysis, River Kosi, Annual Peak Flood discharge, Return Period, Goodness of fit Test.
A rainfall-runoff model for Chew and Kinder Reservoirs, Peak District; utilising the Flood Studies Report to find whether the dams at Chew and Kinder could withstand a 1-in-10,000 year storm (UK recommended safety limit)
Grade: 91%
Forecasting Model of Flood Inundated Areas along Sharda River in U.P.iosrjce
Paper has illuminated the satellite data of previous flood and hydrological data to estimate the
inundated areas near Sharda River. Modeling of flood inundated areas predicted 10 cm rises in water level in
affected areas by flood. IRS-P6/AWiFS and RADARSAT data were used. The RADARSAT satellite data have
shown the flood water, water in low lying areas and real time flood data. The geo referenced IRS-P6/AWiFS,
IRS-P6/LISS-III and PAN satellite data were useful for preparation of various thematic maps. Results revealed
that most heavily flood affected villages at three gauge stations on Sharda River during year 2009 were: 13
villages of Puranpur Block of Pilibhit District downstream to Banbasa gauge station at 220.35m water level; 22
villages of Nighasan Block of Lakhimpur-khiri District downstream to Paliyakala gauge station at 154.62m
water level and 26 villages of Behta Block of Sitapur District downstream to Sharda Nagar gauge station at
136.10m water level.
Scale-dependency and Sensitivity of Hydrological Estimations to Land Use and ...Beniamino Murgante
Scale-dependency and Sensitivity of Hydrological Estimations to Land Use and Topography for a Coastal Watershed in Mississippi - Vladimir J. Alarcon and Charles G. O’Hara
A study on comparision of runoff estimated by Empirical formulae with Measure...Ahmed Ali S D
MAIN PUPOSE OF THIS PPT PRESENTATION IS TO SELECT SIUTABLE DISCHARGE FORMULA FOR A RIVER BASIN TO ESTIMATE RUNOFF ONLY BY USING PRECIPITATION DATA ONLY. IF WE KNOW RAINFALL DATA WE EASILY ESTIMATE FUTURE RUNOFF ALSO.
Empirical equations for flood analysis in arid zonesAmro Elfeki
Mohammad Albishi, Jarbou Bahrawi, and Amro Elfeki (2016). Empirical Equations for Flood Analysis in Arid Zones. Published in the book of abstracts at IWC 2016 International Water Conference 2016 on Water Resources in Arid Areas: the Way Forward.
A study confined to the lower tapi basin in Gujarat, India to find out the primary causes for 2006 floods in Surat city. The study involves collection of topographical data from the local geological survey organization, rainfall data from meteorological department of india and the application of HEC-HMS software from US Army corps of engineers to identify the primary cause of the runoff.
The Development of a Catchment Management Modelling System for the Googong Re...GavanThomas
A scenario assessment model to assist the end-user in determining priorities for a series of agreed management prescriptions that can be enacted through controls on existing landuse
IJRET : International Journal of Research in Engineering and Technology is an international peer reviewed, online journal published by eSAT Publishing House for the enhancement of research in various disciplines of Engineering and Technology. The aim and scope of the journal is to provide an academic medium and an important reference for the advancement and dissemination of research results that support high-level learning, teaching and research in the fields of Engineering and Technology. We bring together Scientists, Academician, Field Engineers, Scholars and Students of related fields of Engineering and Technology
Streamflow simulation using radar-based precipitation applied to the Illinois...Alireza Safari
This paper describes the application of a spatially distributed hydrological model WetSpa (Water and Energy Transfer between Soil, Plants and Atmosphere) using radar-based rainfall data provide by the United States Hydrology Laboratory of NOAA's National Weather Service for a distributed model intercomparison project. The model is applied to the
river basin above Tahlequah hydrometry station with 30-m spatial resolution and one hour time--step for a total simulation period of 6 years. Rainfall inputs are derived from radar. The distributed model parameters are based on an extensive database of watershed characteristics available for the region, including digital maps of DEM, soil type, and land use. The model is calibrated and validated on part of the river flow records. The simulated hydrograph shows a good correspondence with observation (Nash efficiency coeffiecient >80%, indicating that the model is able to simulate the relevant hydrologic processes in the basin accurately.
This study explains the use of remote sensing data for spatially distributed hydrological modeling using the MIKE-SHE software used in Tarim River Basin CHINA
An Attempt To Use Interpolation to Predict Rainfall Intensities tor Crash Ana...IJMERJOURNAL
ABSTRACT: This study uses different interpolation techniques to predict rainfall intensity at locationsthat are not directly located near a rainfall gauges. The goal of being able to interpolate the rainfall intensity is to study its impact on traffic crashes. To perform the study, a collection of rainfall gauges in Alabama were used as subject locations where rainfall intensity was predicted from surrounding gauges, while also providing validation data to compare the predictions. Essentially, the actual rainfall intensities at existing gauges were interpolated using nearby gauges and the results were analyzed.The interpolation techniques used in the study included proximal, averaging and a distance weighted average. The results of the study indicated that none of the interpolation methodologies were sufficient to accurately predict the rainfall intensity values any significant distance from the actual gauges.
ESTIMATION OF NRCS CURVE NUMBER FROM WATERSHED MORPHOMETRIC PARAMETERS: A CAS...IAEME Publication
The NRCS-CN equation for flood predictions relies on the value of the Curve Number and the amount of rainfall event to determine the corresponding runoff. Usually, the curve number value (CN value) is extracted from the tables that follow United State land features classification which might not be applicable to the land features in Saudi Arabia. This research paper doesn’t use NRCS-CN table values form of the US for estimating the curve number value, rather, the CN values have been estimated from the data of rainfall and runoff events of some gauged watersheds in the western region of Saudi Arabia (Yiba watershed and its sub-basins).
International Journal of Research in Engineering and Science is an open access peer-reviewed international forum for scientists involved in research to publish quality and refereed papers. Papers reporting original research or experimentally proved review work are welcome. Papers for publication are selected through peer review to ensure originality, relevance, and readability.
Projection of future Temperature and Precipitation for Jhelum river basin in ...IJERA Editor
In this paper, downscaling models are developed using a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) for obtaining projections of mean monthly temperature and precipitation for Jhelum river basin. Precipitation and temperature data are the most frequently used forcing terms in hydrological models. However, the available General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are widely used nowadays to simulate future climate scenarios, do not provide those variables to the need of the models. The purpose of this study is therefore, to apply a statistical downscaling method and assess its strength in reproducing current climate and project future climate. Regression based downscaling technique was usedtodownscaletheCGCM3, HadCM3 and Echam5 GCMpredictionsoftheA1B scenario for the Jhelum river basin located in India. The Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model shows an increasing trend in temperature in the study area until the end of the 21st century. The average annual temperature showed an increase of 2.37°, 1.50°C and 2.02°C respectively for CGCM3, HadCM3 and Echam5 models over 21st century under A1B scenario. The total annual precipitation decreased by 30.27%, 30.58°C and 36.53% respectively for CGCM3, HadCM3 and Echam5 models over 21st century in A1B scenario using MLR technique. The performance of the linear multiple regression models was evaluated based on several statistical performance indicators.
Flood frequency analysis of river kosi, uttarakhand, india using statistical ...eSAT Journals
Abstract In the present study, flood frequency analysis has been applied for river Kosi in Uttarakhand. The river Kosi is an important tributary of Ganga river system, which arising from Koshimool near Kausani, Almora district flows on the western side of the study area and to meet at Ramganga River. The annual flood series analysis has been carried out to estimate the flood quantiles at different return period at Kosi barrage site of river Kosi. The statistical approach provided a significant advantage of estimation of flood at any sites in the homogenous region with very less or no data. In the at –site analysis of annual flood series the Normal, Log normal, Pearson type III, Log Pearson type III, Gumbel and Log Gumbel distribution were applied using method of moments . From the analysis of different goodness of fit tests, it has been found that the Log Gumbel distribution with method of moment as parameters estimation found to be the best-fit distribution for Kosi River and other sites in the region. It is recommended that the regional parameters for Kosi Basin may be used only for primary estimation of flood and should be reviewed when more regional data available. Keywords: Flood Frequency Analysis, River Kosi, Annual Peak Flood discharge, Return Period, Goodness of fit Test.
A rainfall-runoff model for Chew and Kinder Reservoirs, Peak District; utilising the Flood Studies Report to find whether the dams at Chew and Kinder could withstand a 1-in-10,000 year storm (UK recommended safety limit)
Grade: 91%
Forecasting Model of Flood Inundated Areas along Sharda River in U.P.iosrjce
Paper has illuminated the satellite data of previous flood and hydrological data to estimate the
inundated areas near Sharda River. Modeling of flood inundated areas predicted 10 cm rises in water level in
affected areas by flood. IRS-P6/AWiFS and RADARSAT data were used. The RADARSAT satellite data have
shown the flood water, water in low lying areas and real time flood data. The geo referenced IRS-P6/AWiFS,
IRS-P6/LISS-III and PAN satellite data were useful for preparation of various thematic maps. Results revealed
that most heavily flood affected villages at three gauge stations on Sharda River during year 2009 were: 13
villages of Puranpur Block of Pilibhit District downstream to Banbasa gauge station at 220.35m water level; 22
villages of Nighasan Block of Lakhimpur-khiri District downstream to Paliyakala gauge station at 154.62m
water level and 26 villages of Behta Block of Sitapur District downstream to Sharda Nagar gauge station at
136.10m water level.
Scale-dependency and Sensitivity of Hydrological Estimations to Land Use and ...Beniamino Murgante
Scale-dependency and Sensitivity of Hydrological Estimations to Land Use and Topography for a Coastal Watershed in Mississippi - Vladimir J. Alarcon and Charles G. O’Hara
A study on comparision of runoff estimated by Empirical formulae with Measure...Ahmed Ali S D
MAIN PUPOSE OF THIS PPT PRESENTATION IS TO SELECT SIUTABLE DISCHARGE FORMULA FOR A RIVER BASIN TO ESTIMATE RUNOFF ONLY BY USING PRECIPITATION DATA ONLY. IF WE KNOW RAINFALL DATA WE EASILY ESTIMATE FUTURE RUNOFF ALSO.
Empirical equations for flood analysis in arid zonesAmro Elfeki
Mohammad Albishi, Jarbou Bahrawi, and Amro Elfeki (2016). Empirical Equations for Flood Analysis in Arid Zones. Published in the book of abstracts at IWC 2016 International Water Conference 2016 on Water Resources in Arid Areas: the Way Forward.
A study confined to the lower tapi basin in Gujarat, India to find out the primary causes for 2006 floods in Surat city. The study involves collection of topographical data from the local geological survey organization, rainfall data from meteorological department of india and the application of HEC-HMS software from US Army corps of engineers to identify the primary cause of the runoff.
The Development of a Catchment Management Modelling System for the Googong Re...GavanThomas
A scenario assessment model to assist the end-user in determining priorities for a series of agreed management prescriptions that can be enacted through controls on existing landuse
IJRET : International Journal of Research in Engineering and Technology is an international peer reviewed, online journal published by eSAT Publishing House for the enhancement of research in various disciplines of Engineering and Technology. The aim and scope of the journal is to provide an academic medium and an important reference for the advancement and dissemination of research results that support high-level learning, teaching and research in the fields of Engineering and Technology. We bring together Scientists, Academician, Field Engineers, Scholars and Students of related fields of Engineering and Technology
Streamflow simulation using radar-based precipitation applied to the Illinois...Alireza Safari
This paper describes the application of a spatially distributed hydrological model WetSpa (Water and Energy Transfer between Soil, Plants and Atmosphere) using radar-based rainfall data provide by the United States Hydrology Laboratory of NOAA's National Weather Service for a distributed model intercomparison project. The model is applied to the
river basin above Tahlequah hydrometry station with 30-m spatial resolution and one hour time--step for a total simulation period of 6 years. Rainfall inputs are derived from radar. The distributed model parameters are based on an extensive database of watershed characteristics available for the region, including digital maps of DEM, soil type, and land use. The model is calibrated and validated on part of the river flow records. The simulated hydrograph shows a good correspondence with observation (Nash efficiency coeffiecient >80%, indicating that the model is able to simulate the relevant hydrologic processes in the basin accurately.
This study explains the use of remote sensing data for spatially distributed hydrological modeling using the MIKE-SHE software used in Tarim River Basin CHINA
An Attempt To Use Interpolation to Predict Rainfall Intensities tor Crash Ana...IJMERJOURNAL
ABSTRACT: This study uses different interpolation techniques to predict rainfall intensity at locationsthat are not directly located near a rainfall gauges. The goal of being able to interpolate the rainfall intensity is to study its impact on traffic crashes. To perform the study, a collection of rainfall gauges in Alabama were used as subject locations where rainfall intensity was predicted from surrounding gauges, while also providing validation data to compare the predictions. Essentially, the actual rainfall intensities at existing gauges were interpolated using nearby gauges and the results were analyzed.The interpolation techniques used in the study included proximal, averaging and a distance weighted average. The results of the study indicated that none of the interpolation methodologies were sufficient to accurately predict the rainfall intensity values any significant distance from the actual gauges.
ESTIMATION OF NRCS CURVE NUMBER FROM WATERSHED MORPHOMETRIC PARAMETERS: A CAS...IAEME Publication
The NRCS-CN equation for flood predictions relies on the value of the Curve Number and the amount of rainfall event to determine the corresponding runoff. Usually, the curve number value (CN value) is extracted from the tables that follow United State land features classification which might not be applicable to the land features in Saudi Arabia. This research paper doesn’t use NRCS-CN table values form of the US for estimating the curve number value, rather, the CN values have been estimated from the data of rainfall and runoff events of some gauged watersheds in the western region of Saudi Arabia (Yiba watershed and its sub-basins).
International Journal of Research in Engineering and Science is an open access peer-reviewed international forum for scientists involved in research to publish quality and refereed papers. Papers reporting original research or experimentally proved review work are welcome. Papers for publication are selected through peer review to ensure originality, relevance, and readability.
Projection of future Temperature and Precipitation for Jhelum river basin in ...IJERA Editor
In this paper, downscaling models are developed using a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) for obtaining projections of mean monthly temperature and precipitation for Jhelum river basin. Precipitation and temperature data are the most frequently used forcing terms in hydrological models. However, the available General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are widely used nowadays to simulate future climate scenarios, do not provide those variables to the need of the models. The purpose of this study is therefore, to apply a statistical downscaling method and assess its strength in reproducing current climate and project future climate. Regression based downscaling technique was usedtodownscaletheCGCM3, HadCM3 and Echam5 GCMpredictionsoftheA1B scenario for the Jhelum river basin located in India. The Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model shows an increasing trend in temperature in the study area until the end of the 21st century. The average annual temperature showed an increase of 2.37°, 1.50°C and 2.02°C respectively for CGCM3, HadCM3 and Echam5 models over 21st century under A1B scenario. The total annual precipitation decreased by 30.27%, 30.58°C and 36.53% respectively for CGCM3, HadCM3 and Echam5 models over 21st century in A1B scenario using MLR technique. The performance of the linear multiple regression models was evaluated based on several statistical performance indicators.
International Journal of Engineering Research and DevelopmentIJERD Editor
Electrical, Electronics and Computer Engineering,
Information Engineering and Technology,
Mechanical, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering,
Automation and Mechatronics Engineering,
Material and Chemical Engineering,
Civil and Architecture Engineering,
Biotechnology and Bio Engineering,
Environmental Engineering,
Petroleum and Mining Engineering,
Marine and Agriculture engineering,
Aerospace Engineering.
Geostatistical analysis of rainfall variability on the plateau of Allada in S...IJERA Editor
The goal of this survey is to contribute to a better understanding of the distribution of the rainfall on the plateau
of Allada in Benin. The plateau of Allada is the garner ofCotonou and vicinities. The food production is over
62% rainfed.Then, it imports to analyze the way how rains are spatially distributed on the area in order to deduct
the potential rainfall. To achieve this goal, rainfall data of 28 stations have been used. Three sub-periods have
been identified: 1996-2000, 2001-2005 and 2006-2010. The distribution of rainfall has been established with
Thiessen and kriging methods. On average, 1117mm of rain fell on the study area per year. But three tendencies
were shown: the less rainy zones, the fairly rainy zones, and the greatly rainy zones. All the rainfall zones knew
an increase of the precipitations except Abomey-Calavi and Niaouli. But the variations are not significant. While
analyzing the spatial structure for the kriging of precipitations, it was revealed a power model of variogram. The
direction of the rainfall gradient is oriented southeast - northwest during the three sub-periods. Abomey-Calavi
recorded the weakest precipitations. The strongest values are interchanged between Toffo and Sékou, OuidahNorth
and Ouidah-City.
International Journal of Engineering Research and Applications (IJERA) is an open access online peer reviewed international journal that publishes research and review articles in the fields of Computer Science, Neural Networks, Electrical Engineering, Software Engineering, Information Technology, Mechanical Engineering, Chemical Engineering, Plastic Engineering, Food Technology, Textile Engineering, Nano Technology & science, Power Electronics, Electronics & Communication Engineering, Computational mathematics, Image processing, Civil Engineering, Structural Engineering, Environmental Engineering, VLSI Testing & Low Power VLSI Design etc.
Time Series Analysis of Rainfall in North Bangalore Metropolitan Region using...Dr Ramesh Dikpal
Rainfall studies are of utmost utility for understanding nature & hence the behaviour of climate changes. Time series is a set of observations taken at specified times usually at equal interval. The inherent variability displayed by many hydrological time series usually mask trends and periodic patterns. This situation has often led to “something” the original time series so that the effects of random variations are reduced and trends or cyclical patterns enhanced. Thus a set of data depending on time is called a Time series. Here, Rainfall series represent the time series. The time series analysis is helpful to compare the actual performance and analyse the cause of variations. By comparing different time series we can draw important conclusion. Graphical method implies in increasing trend for pre-monsoon, south-west monsoon, north-east monsoon and annually.Geo- informatics module consists of GIS mapping for Location map, Geomorphology map and Season wise Rainfall maps are generated. Autocorrelation indicates the periodicity observed as 37,16 & 6 years (PM), 12, 37 & 16 years (SWM), 8, 18 & 6 years (NEM) and 16, 22 & 8 years (Annual) respectively. Power spectral depicts the cyclicity of 37, 4 & 3 years (PM), 2, 4& 2 years (SWM), 3, 7 & 2 years (NEM) and 2, 4 & 2 years (Annual) respectively. Moving average displays prominent positive correlation coefficients at lags of 18 to 42 years in PM & SWM and 12 to 24 years in NEM & Annual. The southwest and southeast parts of the study area experience the heavy rainfall whereas the least rainfall areas are the northern parts of the study area.The short term and long term cyclicity observed in Autocorrelation, power spectrum and Moving Average. Spatial variation of rainfall for the three seasons and annual has been studied
The surface soil moisture content (SSMC) is of great importance to the discipline of hydrology as well as to the other relevant studies and applications. Pioneer studies have pointed out that the most promising technique to retrieve SSMC regarding to accuracy and cost-effective belongs to the micro-wave remote sensing. By means of field observed SSMC dataset collected from the Yihe watershed located on the Linyi district, Shangdong province, China, we analyzed and validated the daily AMER-E SSMC products for the year of 2006 with the focus to examine the products quality of AMER-E SSMC for further studies by using the products. The results suggested that the temporal variation trend of AMER-E remotely sensed SSMC is reasonably consistent to the field observed, but is systematic lower than the ground truth in value in the whole year. The correspondence of AMSR-E SSMC product is significant enough compared with the field observed for the whole year except of the month of July and August.
Aquifer recharge from flash floods in the arid environment: A mass balance ap...Amro Elfeki
Estimation of the infiltration/natural recharge to groundwater from rainfall is an important issue in hydrology, particularly in arid regions. This paper proposes the application of The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) mass balance model to develop infiltration (F)–rainfall (P) relationship from flash flood events. Moreover, the NRCS method is compared with the rational and the Ф-index methods to investigate the discrepancies between these methods. The methods have been applied to five gauged basins and their 19 sub-basins (representative basins with detailed measurements) in the southwestern part of Saudi Arabia with 161 storms recorded in 4 years. The F–P relationships developed in this study based on NRCS method are: F = 39% P with R2 = 0.932 for the initial abstraction factor, λ = 0.2. However, F = 77% P with R2 = 0.986 for λ = 0.01. The model at λ = 0.01 is the best to fit the data, therefore, it is recommended to use the formula at λ = 0.01. The results show that the NRCS model is appropriate for the estimation of the F–P relationships in arid regions when compared with the rational and the Ф index methods. The latter overestimates the infiltration because they do not take λ into account. There is no significant difference between F–P relationships at different time scales. This helps the prediction of infiltration rates for aquifer recharge at ungauged basins from monthly and annual rainfall data with a single formula.
DELINEATION OF FLOOD-PRONE AREAS THROUGH THE PERSPECTIVE OF RIVER HYDRAULICSDasapta Erwin Irawan
Flash floods in the Saka River (part of the KUSW) struck Muara Dua District with a population of 177.47 people/km2 on May 8th, 2020, due to increased rainfall intensity and land cover changes upstream. Based on this incident, this research will examine hydraulic parameters that directly implications for potential flooding. The rainfall intensity analysis was based on calculations from the Gumbel-Sherman equation in the baseline period 2011-2020. Then the parameters of the runoff coefficient consisting of the slope, land cover, and type of lithology are analyzed by the Hassing method. The results of the rainfall intensity analysis showed that the lowest intensity occurred in August while the highest power occurred in November and April. The runoff coefficient of 53% has implications for peak flow discharge which has an average increase of 11.6%. Flood simulation in KUSW modeled with Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) software shows 174.4 km2 potential flooding in the five years of the return period and 200 km2 in the ten years of the return period. This analysis model is used as a preventive effort and reduces the negative impact around KUSW.
GENERATION OF IDF CURVES IN ARID AND SEMI-ARID AREAS: CASE STUDY HURGHADA, EGYPTIAEME Publication
Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are commonly used in water resources projects and hydrological analyses. One of the most important requirements for creating IDF curves is the actual distribution of rainfall intensity during the period of rainfall, but usually short-duration rainfall records are rare in arid regions while daily rainfall data are available. Hydrologists can generate short-duration rainfall data from daily rainfall data through using the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) standard synthetic rainfall distributions. The main purpose of this paper is to show the procedure to be followed in developing the IDF curves using the daily rainfall data recorded at the Hurghada weather station. Frequency analysis of the observed rainfall records was performed using HyfranPlus software. The gamma distribution is the most widely accepted probability distribution in this research.
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Welcome to WIPAC Monthly the magazine brought to you by the LinkedIn Group Water Industry Process Automation & Control.
In this month's edition, along with this month's industry news to celebrate the 13 years since the group was created we have articles including
A case study of the used of Advanced Process Control at the Wastewater Treatment works at Lleida in Spain
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Courier management system project report.pdfKamal Acharya
It is now-a-days very important for the people to send or receive articles like imported furniture, electronic items, gifts, business goods and the like. People depend vastly on different transport systems which mostly use the manual way of receiving and delivering the articles. There is no way to track the articles till they are received and there is no way to let the customer know what happened in transit, once he booked some articles. In such a situation, we need a system which completely computerizes the cargo activities including time to time tracking of the articles sent. This need is fulfilled by Courier Management System software which is online software for the cargo management people that enables them to receive the goods from a source and send them to a required destination and track their status from time to time.
Industrial Training at Shahjalal Fertilizer Company Limited (SFCL)MdTanvirMahtab2
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Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis By L-Moments Approach For Madina Region, Saudi Arabia
1. International Journal of Engineering Research and Development
e-ISSN: 2278-067X, p-ISSN: 2278-800X, www.ijerd.com
Volume 13, Issue 7 (July 2017), PP.39-48
39
Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis By L-Moments Approach
For Madina Region, Saudi Arabia
*
Fahad Alahmadi
General Department of Water Services in Madina Province, Madinah, Saudi Arabia
Corresponding author: *Fahad Alahmadi
ABSTRACT:- In arid regions, extreme rainfall event frequency predictions are still a challenging problem,
because of the rain gauge stations scarcity and the record length limitation, which are usually short to insure
reliable quantile estimates. Regional frequency analysis is one of the popular approaches used to compensate
the data limitation. In this paper, regional frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfall is investigated for
Madinah province in the Western Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The observed maximum daily rainfall
records of 20 rainfall stations are selected from 1968 to 2015. The rainfall data is evaluated using four tests,
namely, Discordance test (Di), Homogeneity test (H), Goodness of fit test (Zdist) and L-moment ratios diagram
(LMRD). The Di of L-moments shows that all the sites belong to one group (Di <3.0). The H test indicated that
the region is homogeneous (H<1). Finally, the Zdist is used to evaluate five probability distribution functions
(PDFs) including generalized logistic (GLO), generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized normal (GNO),
generalized Pareto (GPA), and Pearson Type III (PE3). Zdist and LMRD both showed that PE3 distribution is
the best among the other PDFs. The regional parameters of the candidate PDF are computed using L-moments
approach and accordingly the regional dimensionless growth curve is developed. The results enhance the
accuracy of extreme rainfall prediction at-sites and also they can be used for ungauged catchment in the region.
Keywords:- Regional frequency analysis, L-moments approach, arid regions, Madinah region, Saudi Arabia
I. INTRODUCTION
Magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events are usually required for hydraulic structures design
in any water resources project. Arid regions have rather short data and limited number of gauge stations. It is a
common problem that the observed rainfall data is either not available or not sufficient for reliable designs. In
such cases, regional frequency analysis (RFA) is implemented, where the observed rainfall data from several
locations are combined for prediction of the frequency of extreme rainfall events in the region. RFA approach
can improve the accuracy of the predicted rainfall and allow for more reliable quantile estimates and it also
reduces the uncertainties associated with at-site (single) location approach (Buishand, 1991; Smithers and
Schulze, 2001; Brath et al. 2003; Gáal et al. 2007; Kysely´ and Picek, 2007). L-moments approach can be
considered as the most popular method used in regional frequency analysis (Hosking and Wallis, 1997).
Several studies are available on regional rainfall frequency analysis, mostly in the humid regions. For
example, Schaefer (1990) found the EVII as the best annual rainfall distribution for Washington State. In Sicily,
Italy, Cannarozzo et al. (1995) preformed two-component extreme value distribution for annual maximum
rainfall. Adamowski et al. (1996) numerically analyzed 320 stations in Canada and showed that they may be
considered as one homogeneous region, and GEV distribution is the regional parent distribution. To estimate
short duration design rainfalls in South Africa, Smithers and Schulze (2001) applied the GEV distribution and
regional index storm approach based on L-moments using information from 172 rainfall stations. The region
was subdivided into 15 relatively homogeneous clusters.
Sveinsson et al. (2002) developed the regional frequency curves of annual maximum precipitation
based on index method for Northeastern Colorado State. On the other hand, Zalina et al. (2002) analyzed the
hourly rainfall of seventeen automatic stations in Malaysia, where eight distributions were compared using
Probability Plot Correlation Coefficient test, root mean squared error, relative root mean squared error and
maximum absolute deviation. It was found that GEV distribution is the most appropriate distribution.
Furthermore, Lee and Maeng (2003) analyzed the maximum annual daily rainfall in 38 Korean rainfall stations
based on the comparison between three distributions using L-moment ratio diagram and Kolmogorov–Smirnov
test. It was found that GEV and GLO distributions are appropriate for Korean rainfall data.
In the USA, Trefry et al. (2005) updated the rainfall frequency curve of 76 recording rainfall stations
and 152 daily stations in Michigan State using generalized Pareto distribution fit to partial duration series data
and generalized extreme value distribution fit to annual maximum series data. Seventy eight daily rainfall
stations in Czech are processed by Kysely and Picek (2007) to improve the extreme rainfall predictions, where
the study area was subdivided into four homogeneous regions using cluster analysis. According to L-moment
2. Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis by L-moments Approach for Madina Region, Saudi Arabia
40
ratio diagram and goodness of fit tests, GEV distribution was selected as the most suitable one. Ngongondo et al.
(2011) analyzed 23 selected rainfall stations in Southern Malawi. They suggested the k-means cluster analysis
and Ward's classification with three homogeneous rainfall regions, and concluded that the regional quantiles had
smaller uncertainty as compared to at-site estimates.
Recently, Shahzadi et al. (2013) estimated the regional rainfall quantiles of 23 sites in Pakistan using
L-moments approach; different test were applied including independency, stationarity, discordancy,
homogeneity tests and the area was subdivided into three regions. In their study L-moment ratio diagram was
developed to select the best distributions and the regional quantiles estimations using GNO distribution for large
return periods and GEV for small return periods. Three methods of forming regions for use in estimating design
rainfalls of 134 rainfall stations in south-east of Queensland and northern New South Wales in Australia were
compared by Haddad et al. (2015) using Bayesian Generalized Least Squares Regression. Finally, it was found
that all three methods provided good estimates of the L-moment statistics and the rainfall quantiles. Núñez et al.
(2016) proposed an integral procedure for the application of L-moments based regional frequency analysis in
large network and high as well as complex spatial scale conditions in Latin America. Most recently, monthly
precipitation were processed at 17 stations in Northern Pakistan by Khan, et al. (2017) and the L-moments and
partial L-moments are computed for four distributions. The results showed than partial L-moments were
superior to L-moments for large return estimations.
Evaluation of these various approaches in arid regions has not yet been widely investigated, thus the
main objective of the present study is to develop the regional growth curves of the maximum daily rainfall in
Madinah region, Western Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) by using l-moments approach.
II. STUDY AREA AND DATA SET
A. Study Area
Madinah region with 150,000 km2 area is located in the Western part of KSA and it is bounded by
latitudes 23o and 27oN and longitude 37o and 42oE (Fig. 1). The region can be divided into three topographical
areas, which are; the Red Sea coastal plain, the hills and the mountains, where the elevation ranges from 0 up to
2300 meter above the mean sea level. The study area is predominately arid with hot summer and cooler winter
seasons. The climate pattern over the study area is characterized by various air masses that affect the rainfall
distribution (Alyamani and Şen, 1993). It is a combination of Mediterranean and monsoonal weathered pattern
modified by Hijaz Escarpment. Maritime polar air mas and continental tropical air mass are the main two fronts
of air moisture flowing into the region (Şen, 1983). The mean temperature ranges from 24°C to 40°C in the
summer and from 15°C to 25°C in the winter. Rainfall in the study area is sporadic, characterized by moderate
to high variations in space and time (Subyani and Alahmadi, 2011). The rainy season, which is from October to
April, produces mean annual rainfall of 40 mm in the coastal plain to around 100 mm in the mountainous areas
(Şen, 1983). Extreme rainfall events are caused by a combination of disturbances from the winter Mediterranean
and the Sudan trough, which usually generates extreme convective rainfall events over the study area (Alahmadi
et al., 2014).
B. Data Set
Hydrological network in the KSA has been established since 1960s by Ministry of Environment, Water,
and Agriculture (formerly Ministry of Agriculture and Water). There are 20 daily rainfall stations in the study
area with their locations in Figure 1. The data of these rain gauges span the period from 1968 to 2015. Table 1
presents the general information about these stations. The station elevations ranges from 119 m up to 1084 m
above the mean sea level and the mean annual rainfall (MAR) varies from 24.6 mm up to 102.0 mm. The record
lengths span over 20 to 50 years with an average about 42 years.
III. METHODOLOGY
In this study, L-moments approach is implemented starting with computation of l-moment ratios and
two data screening approaches including discordancy measure (Di), and Homogeneity test (H), and subsequently
two further approaches are implemented to select the best fitted PDF which are Goodness of fit test (Zdist) and L-
moments ratio diagram (LMRD). Finally, the extreme rainfall quantiles are computed and the regional growth
curve is developed using the best fit distribution.
3. Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis by L-moments Approach for Madina Region, Saudi Arabia
41
Fig.1: Location of rainfall gauge stations in Madinah Province
Table 1: General information of rainfall stations
ID Code Name Longitude Latitude Altitude MAR Years
1 J109 Faqair 39.70 23.42 682 89.4 50
2 J110 Malbanah 39.52 23.17 389 63.7 50
3 J112 Umm Albirak 39.23 23.43 210 51.0 40
4 J117 Bader 38.72 23.73 119 42.0 42
5 J118 Mosijid 39.08 24.08 471 74.0 50
6 J133 Umm Dayan 38.92 24.03 310 71.0 44
7 M001 Madina 39.58 24.52 590 59.0 48
8 M004 Hinakyiah 40.51 24.90 865 72.8 45
9 M101 Ise 38.10 25.15 576 51.0 45
10 M102 Khayber 39.29 25.70 774 42.4 48
11 M103 Bir Mashi 39.53 24.18 660 44.0 48
12 M108 Meleileh 39.22 24.67 641 56.0 35
13 M109 Silsilah 39.32 25.25 864 46.4 41
14 M110 Suwayriqiyah 40.32 23.35 870 102 38
15 M111 Dhulaiah 38.18 25.63 295 24.6 37
16 M112 Buwayr 39.07 24.95 681 42.0 45
17 M113 Almahd 40.87 23.50 1084 100 32
18 M116 Oqailah 39.39 25.98 791 24.7 28
19 M117 Al ula 37.95 26.57 663 42.0 38
20 W109 Sowayq 38.45 24.38 177 46.0 38
4. Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis by L-moments Approach for Madina Region, Saudi Arabia
42
A. L-moments computation
L-moments approach is developed by Hosking (1990) as modification of Probability Weighted
Moments (Greenwood et al. 1979). They are one of the most popular methods for the PDF parameter
estimations based on the linear combinations of the order statistics for the sample data that are arranged in
ascending order. Let as the sample with size n and the ordered sample
then the following four parameters are defined.
and
Using the PWMs, L-moments ( can be computed by,
where is the mean of the distribution (or L-location), while is the measure of dispersion or scale (L=scale)
of the distribution. The L-moment ratios ( are then expressed as,
r = 3, 4, …
where L-Cv ( is the coefficient of L-variation, L-Cs ( is the L-skewness and L-Ck ( is the L-kurtosis of
the distribution.
Regional frequency analysis based on L-moments approach as by Hosking and Wallis (1997) supposes
that the data are available at N sites, with site i having sample size ni and observed data xij , j =1, 2, …, ni.
Four evaluation tests are used in this study, which are the discordancy measure (Di), Homogeneity test
(H) goodness of fit test (Zdist), and L-moment ratios diagram (LMRD).
B. Discordancy measure (Di)
Discordancy measure (Di) identifies the unusual sites in the region or those sites that do not appear to
belong to the cloud of sample L-moments (L-Cv, L-Cs, L-Ck). Let be a vector containing
the L-moment ratios for site i then the group average of this vector can expressed as,
5. Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis by L-moments Approach for Madina Region, Saudi Arabia
43
The sample covariance matrix of sum of squares and cross- products can be defined as follows.
The Discordancy measure can be computed using the as,
Hosking and Wallis (1993) suggested that sites with Di ≥ 3 can be considered as unusual (discordant) with the
group as a whole.
C. Homogeneity test (H)
It is used to estimate the degree of homogeneity in a group of sites and to assess whether the sites
might reasonably be treated as a homogeneous region. H estimated by using the regional average of L-moment
ratios (L-Cv, L-Cs, L-Ck), which are represented as follows:
The weighted standard deviation of the at-site sample of L-moments is calculated as,
Kappa distribution is then fitted to the regional L-moment ratios . A large number (Nsim)
of regional realization with N sites and the same record lengths as their real world counterparts, is simulated, for
each region, where V is calculated. The mean (µV) and standard deviation (σV) of the Nsim are computed from
these simulations. The homogeneity measure then can be computed as,
If H < 1 then the region is “acceptably homogeneous”; if 1≤ H < 2 then the region is “possibly
heterogeneous” and finally, if H ≥ 2 then the region is “definitely heterogeneous”.
6. Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis by L-moments Approach for Madina Region, Saudi Arabia
44
D. Goodness of fit test (Zdist)
This test is used to select from a number of distributions, the one that fits the data closely by how well
the L-skewness and L-kurtosis of the fitted distribution match the regional average L-skewness and L-kurtosis
of the recorded data. In this test, the three parameter distributions are usually used such as the generalized
logistic (GLO), generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized Normal (GNO), generalized Pareto (GPA) and
Pearson type III (PE3). Goodness of fit test (Zdist) can be computed as follows.
Herein, is the goodness fit value of the three parameter distribution, is the L-kurtosis of the
fitted distribution, Dist can be any of GLO, GEV, GNO, GPA, or PE3. is the regional average L-kurtosis and
is the standard deviation of , which is computed by repeated simulation of kappa distribution in the same
manner as used in the calculation of the homogeneity test described above. The distribution is considered as a
good fitting to the regional data provided that value is sufficiently close to zero, a reasonable criterion
being .
E. L-moment Ratio diagram (LMRD)
L-moments ration diagram developed by Hosking (1990) is a graphical plot between L-skewness and
L-kurtosis by comparing visually sample L-moment ratios to theoretical values. LMRD can be used as a guide
tool in selecting an appropriate distribution (Vogel and Wilson, 1996; Peel et. al., 2001). The distribution with
theoretical value visually close to sample values can be considered as the most suitable PDF that can represent
the sample data well. This evaluation test is used as a supportive visual evaluation to ensure that the selected
overall best distribution fits the observed data well.
F. Regional growth curve development
The regional average L-moment ratios are used to compute the parameters of best fit
(candidate) distribution. These parameters are then used to calculate the standardized quantiles for the region at
specific recurrence interval (probability of non-exceedance). Finally, the regional growth curve of the candidate
distribution is developed.
IV. RESULTS AND DESCUSIONS
A. L-moments computation
L-moments statistics are computed for each site using observed rainfall data through the use of lmomco
R package developed by Asquith (2011, 2017).Table 2 shows the first four l-moment ratios, which are mean L-
Cv, L-Cs, and L-Ck. The mean ranges from 13.42 to 31.12 mm, whereas the L-CV variation domain is from
0.29 to 0.44, which implies high to very high variability. On the other hand, the L-Cs has values in the range
from 0.118 to 0.376, which implies high to very high skewness. Finally, L-Ck ranges from 0.033 to 0.338.
Table 2: Computed L-moment statistics
ID Mean L-Cv L-Cs L-Ck ID Mean L-Cv L-Cs L-Ck
1 29.49 0.3433 0.1182 0.0481 11 22.75 0.3330 0.2572 0.2027
2 31.12 0.4127 0.1728 0.0330 12 21.15 0.4180 0.1717 0.0662
3 25.19 0.3616 0.2484 0.1345 13 20.38 0.3979 0.2554 0.1544
4 20.31 0.4321 0.2740 0.1425 14 26.20 0.2943 0.2264 0.2341
5 27.95 0.4381 0.3352 0.2848 15 14.50 0.3664 0.1308 0.1496
6 26.85 0.3530 0.2382 0.0505 16 15.52 0.4100 0.2643 0.1616
7 22.20 0.4120 0.3021 0.2575 17 20.88 0.3180 0.2159 0.3380
8 20.92 0.3506 0.3014 0.2106 18 13.42 0.4090 0.2625 0.1294
9 20.61 0.3704 0.3137 0.1444 19 19.41 0.4037 0.3755 0.2473
10 29.53 0.3364 0.1401 0.0568 20 18.26 0.4415 0.1974 0.0396
7. Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis by L-moments Approach for Madina Region, Saudi Arabia
45
B. Discordancy measure (Di)
Discordancy measure (Di) is also computed for each site assuming that the 20 sites constitute a single
region. The critical value of Di for all sites is 3. It can be noticed from Table 3 that Di ranges from 0.06 to 2.9
and all 20 sites have Di values less than 3.0, which implies that they come from one region.
Table 3: Discordancy measure (Di) for each site
ID Di ID Di
1 1.18 11 0.55
2 0.84 12 0.86
3 0.25 13 0.06
4 0.52 14 1.51
5 1.73 15 1.50
6 1.51 16 0.19
7 0.83 17 2.90
8 0.66 18 0.21
9 1.14 19 1.35
10 1.02 20 1.19
C. Homogeneity test (H)
The computed L-moment ratios in Table 2 are used to calculate the regional average L-moment ratios
, which are 0.38, 0.24, and 0.15, respectively. These regional average L-moment ratios are then
used in the simulation of the kappa distribution and the homogeneity test (H) is 0.647, which implies that the
region is “acceptably homogeneous”.
D. Goodness of fit test (Zdist)
In this test, five 3-parameter distributions, generalized logistic (GLO), generalized extreme value
(GEV), generalized Normal (GNO), generalized Pareto (GPA) and Pearson type III (PE3) are evaluated. . Table
4 has the computed values for each distribution, which varies from 0.78 to 4.1 and two distributions
with , which are GNO and PE3, and the distribution with lowest value (PE3) will be
selected as the best fit distribution.
E. L-moment Ratio diagram (LMRD)
In Figure 2, L-moments ratio diagram (LMRD) is given, where the curves show the theoretical
relationships between L-skewness and L-kurtosis of various candidate distributions. The points show the
regional weighted average and at- sites values of L-skewness (L-Cs) and L-kurtosis (L-Ck) are already presented
in Table.2. It can be seen that the regional weighted average of L-Cs and L-Ck value lies between PE3 and GNO
distributions and closer to PE3, which is the same conclusion for the Zdist, and finally, PE3 distribution is
selected as a candidate distribution for the rainfall in Madinah region.
Table 4: Goodness of fit test
Dist
GLO 4.10
GEV 1.88
GNO 0.94
PE3 0.78
GPA 3.60
8. Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis by L-moments Approach for Madina Region, Saudi Arabia
46
Fig. 2: L-moments ratio diagram of rainfall in Madinah region
F. Regional growth curve development
The regional average of L-moment ratios are used to compute the three parameters of PE3
distribution (mu, sigma, gamma), which are 1.00, 0.719 and 1.448, respectively. These parameters are then used
to calculate the regional quantiles on the basis of the PE3 distribution function. Table 4 presents the regional
quantiles, while Figure 2 is for the regional growth curve in the region.
Table 5: Regional quantiles for different probabilities
Probabilities 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.95 0.98 0.99 0.999
Regional Quantiles 0.26 0.4 0.83 1.5 1.96 2.4 2.96 3.37 4.71
V. CONCLUSIONS
Arid regions suffer from the scarcity of rain gauges and the record length limitation of observed rainfall
data, which are usually short to insure reliable quantile estimates. Regional frequency analysis is one of the most
popular approaches used to compensate the limitation of data availability. The applications of these approaches
have not yet been widely investigated in arid regions. In this study, 20 daily rainfall stations in Madinah region,
Western Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) are processed to develop the regional growth curve of the maximum
daily rainfall using l-moments approach. Computation of l-moments showed high variability and high skewness
of the rainfall data in the region (L-CV range from 0.29 to 0.44,
which implies high to very high variability, while the L-Cs ranges from 0.118 to 0.376 also with
implication of high to very high skewness). Discordancy measure (Di) for each site was less than 3.0 showing
that the 20 sites constitute as one region. Homogeneity test (H) was <1, which meant that the region is
“acceptably homogeneous”. Five 3-parameter distributions were evaluated using Goodness of fit test (Zdist) and
L-moments ratio diagram (LMRD) showing that generalized Normal (GNO) and Pearson type III (PE3)
distributions were the best with superiority of PE3 distribution.
9. Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis by L-moments Approach for Madina Region, Saudi Arabia
47
Fig. 3: Regional growth curve for Madinah region using PE3 distribution
Finally, various quantiles at specific recurrence interval (probability of non-exceedance) were
computed for the region and the regional growth curve of the candidate distribution was developed, which can
be used for ungauged sites or sites with limited rainfall data.
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*
Fahad Alahmadi. "Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis By L-Moments Approach For
Madina Region, Saudi Arabia ." International Journal of Engineering Research and
Development 13.7 (2017): 39-48.