This document describes a study that developed artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models to simulate daily monsoon rainfall in Satna, India. 31 generalized feed forward (GFF) ANN models and 12 MLR models were developed using rainfall and meteorological data from 2004-2013 as inputs. The models were trained on 2004-2011 data and tested on 2012-2013 data. Performance was evaluated using various statistical indices. The best performing models based on their input-output combinations are presented. The study aims to find accurate rainfall prediction models for water resource management applications in the region.
Assessment of two Methods to study Precipitation PredictionAI Publications
Presipitation analysis plays an important role in hydrological studies. In this study, using 50 years of rainfall data and ARIMA model, critical areas of Iran were determined. For this purpose, annual rainfall data of 112 different synoptic stations in Iran were gathered. To summarize, it could be concluded that: ARIMA model was an appropriate tool to forecast annual rainfall. According to obtained results from relative error, five stations were in critical condition. At 45 stations accrued rainfalls with amounts of less than half of average in the 50-year period. Therefore, in these 45 areas, chance of drought is more than other areas of Iran.
A comparative study of different imputation methods for daily rainfall data i...journalBEEI
Rainfall data are the most significant values in hydrology and climatology modelling. However, the datasets are prone to missing values due to various issues. This study aspires to impute the rainfall missing values by using various imputation method such as Replace by Mean, Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest, Non-linear Interactive Partial Least-Square (NIPALS) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Daily rainfall datasets from 48 rainfall stations across east-coast Peninsular Malaysia were used in this study. The dataset were then fed into Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model. The performance of abovementioned methods were evaluated using Root Mean Square Method (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (CE). The experimental results showed that RF coupled with MLR (RF-MLR) approach was attained as more fitting for satisfying the missing data in east-coast Peninsular Malaysia.
The two main challenges of predicting the wind speed depend on various atmospheric factors and random variables. This paper explores the possibility of developing a wind speed prediction model using different Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Categorical Regression empirical model which could be used to estimate the wind speed in Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India using SPSS software. The proposed Neural Network models are tested on real time wind data and enhanced with statistical capabilities. The objective is to predict accurate wind speed and to perform better in terms of minimization of errors using Multi Layer Perception Neural Network (MLPNN), Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) and Categorical Regression (CATREG). Results from the paper have shown good agreement between the estimated and measured values of wind speed.
Analysis of Time Diversity Gain for Satellite Communication Link based on Ku-...IJECEIAES
This paper reports a study on mitigation of propagation impairments on Earth–space communication links. The study uses time diversity as a technique for mitigating rain propagation impairment in order to rectify rain fade. Rain attenuation time series along earth-to-satellite link were measured for two years period at 12.255 GHz in Malaysia. The time diversity technique was applied on measured rain fade to investigate the level of possible improvement in system. Time diversity gain from measured oneminute rain attenuation for two years period was estimated and significant improvement was observed with different delays of time. These findings will be utilized as a useful tool for link designers to apply time diversity as a rain fade mitigation technique in Earth-satellite communications systems.
Supervised machine learning based dynamic estimation of bulk soil moisture us...eSAT Journals
Abstract In this paper artificial neural network based sensor informatics architecture has been investigated; including proposed continuous daily estimation of area wise surface soil moisture using cosmic ray sensor’s neutron count time series. Study was conducted based on cosmic ray data available from two Australian locations. The main focus of this study was to develop a data driven approach to convert neutron counts into area wise ground surface soil moisture estimates. Independent surface soil moisture data from the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) was used as ground truth. A comparative study using five different types of neural networks, namely, Feed Forward Back Propagation (FFBPN), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLPN), Radial Basis Function (RBFN), Elman (EN), and Probabilistic networks (PNN) was conducted to evaluate the overall soil moisture estimation accuracy. Best performance from the Elman network outperformed all other neural networks with 94% accuracy with 92% sensitivity and 97% specificity based on Tullochgorum data. Overall high accuracy proved the effectiveness of the Elman neural network to estimate surface soil moisture continuously using cosmic ray sensors. Index Terms: Artificial Neural Network, Surface Soil Moisture, Cosmic Ray Sensors, Neutron Counts.
Assessment of two Methods to study Precipitation PredictionAI Publications
Presipitation analysis plays an important role in hydrological studies. In this study, using 50 years of rainfall data and ARIMA model, critical areas of Iran were determined. For this purpose, annual rainfall data of 112 different synoptic stations in Iran were gathered. To summarize, it could be concluded that: ARIMA model was an appropriate tool to forecast annual rainfall. According to obtained results from relative error, five stations were in critical condition. At 45 stations accrued rainfalls with amounts of less than half of average in the 50-year period. Therefore, in these 45 areas, chance of drought is more than other areas of Iran.
A comparative study of different imputation methods for daily rainfall data i...journalBEEI
Rainfall data are the most significant values in hydrology and climatology modelling. However, the datasets are prone to missing values due to various issues. This study aspires to impute the rainfall missing values by using various imputation method such as Replace by Mean, Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest, Non-linear Interactive Partial Least-Square (NIPALS) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Daily rainfall datasets from 48 rainfall stations across east-coast Peninsular Malaysia were used in this study. The dataset were then fed into Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model. The performance of abovementioned methods were evaluated using Root Mean Square Method (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (CE). The experimental results showed that RF coupled with MLR (RF-MLR) approach was attained as more fitting for satisfying the missing data in east-coast Peninsular Malaysia.
The two main challenges of predicting the wind speed depend on various atmospheric factors and random variables. This paper explores the possibility of developing a wind speed prediction model using different Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Categorical Regression empirical model which could be used to estimate the wind speed in Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India using SPSS software. The proposed Neural Network models are tested on real time wind data and enhanced with statistical capabilities. The objective is to predict accurate wind speed and to perform better in terms of minimization of errors using Multi Layer Perception Neural Network (MLPNN), Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) and Categorical Regression (CATREG). Results from the paper have shown good agreement between the estimated and measured values of wind speed.
Analysis of Time Diversity Gain for Satellite Communication Link based on Ku-...IJECEIAES
This paper reports a study on mitigation of propagation impairments on Earth–space communication links. The study uses time diversity as a technique for mitigating rain propagation impairment in order to rectify rain fade. Rain attenuation time series along earth-to-satellite link were measured for two years period at 12.255 GHz in Malaysia. The time diversity technique was applied on measured rain fade to investigate the level of possible improvement in system. Time diversity gain from measured oneminute rain attenuation for two years period was estimated and significant improvement was observed with different delays of time. These findings will be utilized as a useful tool for link designers to apply time diversity as a rain fade mitigation technique in Earth-satellite communications systems.
Supervised machine learning based dynamic estimation of bulk soil moisture us...eSAT Journals
Abstract In this paper artificial neural network based sensor informatics architecture has been investigated; including proposed continuous daily estimation of area wise surface soil moisture using cosmic ray sensor’s neutron count time series. Study was conducted based on cosmic ray data available from two Australian locations. The main focus of this study was to develop a data driven approach to convert neutron counts into area wise ground surface soil moisture estimates. Independent surface soil moisture data from the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) was used as ground truth. A comparative study using five different types of neural networks, namely, Feed Forward Back Propagation (FFBPN), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLPN), Radial Basis Function (RBFN), Elman (EN), and Probabilistic networks (PNN) was conducted to evaluate the overall soil moisture estimation accuracy. Best performance from the Elman network outperformed all other neural networks with 94% accuracy with 92% sensitivity and 97% specificity based on Tullochgorum data. Overall high accuracy proved the effectiveness of the Elman neural network to estimate surface soil moisture continuously using cosmic ray sensors. Index Terms: Artificial Neural Network, Surface Soil Moisture, Cosmic Ray Sensors, Neutron Counts.
IJRET : International Journal of Research in Engineering and Technology is an international peer reviewed, online journal published by eSAT Publishing House for the enhancement of research in various disciplines of Engineering and Technology. The aim and scope of the journal is to provide an academic medium and an important reference for the advancement and dissemination of research results that support high-level learning, teaching and research in the fields of Engineering and Technology. We bring together Scientists, Academician, Field Engineers, Scholars and Students of related fields of Engineering and Technology.
International Journal of Engineering and Science Invention (IJESI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of computer science and electronics. IJESI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Engineering Science and Technology, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
Time Series Data Analysis for Forecasting – A Literature ReviewIJMER
In today's world there is ample opportunity to clout the numerous sources of time series data
available for decision making. This time ordered data can be used to improve decision making if the data
is converted to information and then into knowledge which is called knowledge discovery. Data Mining
(DM) methods are being increasingly used in prediction with time series data, in addition to traditional
statistical approaches. This paper presents a literature review of the use of DM and statistical approaches
with time series data, focusing on weather prediction. This is an area that has been attracting a great deal
of attention from researchers in the field.
Calibration of Environmental Sensor Data Using a Linear Regression Techniqueijtsrd
The linear regression is a linear approach for modeling the relationship between a scalar dependent variable y and one or more explanatory variables denoted X. A linear regression analysis method is used to improve the performance of the instruments using light scattering method. The data measured by these instruments have to be converted to actual PM10 concentrations using some factors. These findings propose that the instruments using light scattering method can be used to measure and control the PM10 concentrations of the underground subway stations. In this study, the reliability of the instrument for PM measurement using light scattering method was improved with the help of a linear regression analysis technique to continuously measure the PM10 concentrations in the subway stations. In addition, the linear regression analysis technique was also applied to calibrate a radon counter with the help of an expensive radon measuring apparatus. Chungyong Kim | Gyu-Sik Kim"Calibration of Environmental Sensor Data Using a Linear Regression Technique" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-2 | Issue-1 , December 2017, URL: http://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd7060.pdf http://www.ijtsrd.com/engineering/electrical-engineering/7060/calibration-of-environmental-sensor-data-using-a-linear-regression-technique/chungyong-kim
CLEARMiner: Mining of Multitemporal Remote Sensing ImagesEditor IJCATR
A new unsupervised algorithm, called CLimate and rEmote sensing Association patterns Miner, for mining association patterns on
heterogeneous time series from climate and remote sensing data, integrated in a remote sensing information system is developed to improve the
monitoring of sugar cane fields. The system, called RemoteAgri, consists of a large database of climate data and low-resolution remote sensing
images, an image pre-processing module, a time series extraction module, and time series mining methods. The time series mining method
transforms series to symbolic representation in order to identify patterns in a multitemporal satellite images and associate them with patterns in
other series within a temporal sliding window. The validation process was achieved with agro climatic data and NOAA-AVHRR images of
sugar cane fields. Rules generated by the new algorithm show the association patterns in different periods of time in each time series, pointing to
a time delay between the occurrences of patterns in the series analyzed, corroborating what specialists usually forecast without having the burden
of dealing with many data charts. This new method can be used by agro meteorologists to mine and discover knowledge from their long time
series of past and forecasting data, being a valuable tool to support their decision-making process.
International Telecommunication Union-Radiocommunication Sector P.837-6 and P...TELKOMNIKA JOURNAL
This work evaluated the performance of International Telecommunication Union-Radiocommunication Sector (ITU-R) P.837-6 and P.837-7 models (Annex 1) to estimate one-minute rainfall rates in Indonesia. In addition to the default ITU-R P.837-6, the input of ITU-R P.837-6 is also modified using data which has better spatial resolution, i.e. a combination of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3A25 and 3B43 (ITU-R+3A25+3B43), 3B42 and 3B43 (ITU-R+3B42+3B43), Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (ITU-R+GSMaP), and Global Precipitation Measurement (ITU-R+GPM). Among the five test sites, the default ITU-R P.837-6 and ITU-R+3A25+3B43 could predict one-minute rainfall rates at two locations accurately. The ITU-R P.837-7 exhibited a marginally better performance for sites that had a high percentage of very heavy rain, particularly at large (1%) and small (0.001%) percentages of time exceeded. The spatial distribution of rainfall rate produced by ITU-R P.837-7 and ITU-R+3A25+3B43 was closer to the pattern demonstrated by recent satellite precipitation measurements.
This paper proposes a Wavelet based Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (WANFIS) applied to forecast the wind power and enhance the accuracy of one step ahead with a 10 minutes resolution of real time data collected from a wind farm in North India. The proposed method consists two cases. In the first case all the inputs of wind series and output of wind power decomposition coefficients are carried out to predict the wind power. In the second case all the inputs of wind series decomposition coefficients are carried out to get wind power prediction. The performance of proposed WANFIS is compared to Wavelet Neural Network (WNN) and the results of the proposed model are shown superior to compared methods.
Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a future time and a given location. Now days, forecasting of accurate atmospheric conditions is the major challenge for the meteorologist and poor forecasting has significant impact on our daily lives. This brings the necessity to make research works on forecasting of the weather events with respect to Ethiopia.
Refining Underwater Target Localization and Tracking EstimatesCSCJournals
Improving the accuracy and reliability of the localization estimates and tracking of underwater targets is a constant quest in ocean surveillance operations. The localization estimates may vary owing to various noises and interferences such as sensor errors and environmental noises. Even though adaptive filters like the Kalman filter subdue these problems and yield dependable results, targets that undergo maneuvering can cause incomprehensible errors, unless suitable corrective measures are implemented. Simulation studies on improving the localization and tracking estimates for a stationary target as well as a moving target including the maneuvering situations are presented in this paper
NONLINEAR AUTOREGRESSIVE NETWORK WITH THE USE OF A MOVING AVERAGE METHOD FOR ...ijaia
Forecasting of a typhoon moving path may help to evaluate the potential negative impacts in the neighbourhood areas along the moving path. This study proposed a work of using both static and dynamic neural network models to link a time series of typhoon track parameters including longitude and latitude of the typhoon central location, cyclonic radius, central wind speed, and typhoon moving speed. Based on the historical records of 100 typhoons, the performances of neural network models are evaluated from the
indices of a correlation coefficient and a mean square error. The dynamic model or the so-called nonlinear autoregressive network with the use of a moving average method proved to forecast the ten types of typhoon moving path more effectively in Taiwan region. The new and simply approach developed in this study for solving studied typhoon cases may be applicable to other areas of interest worldwide..
Binary classification of rainfall time-series using machine learning algorithmsIJECEIAES
Summer monsoon rainfall contributes more than 75% of the annual rainfall in India. For the state of Maharashtra, India, this is more than 80% for almost all regions of the state. The high variability of rainfall during this period necessitates the classification of rainy and non-rainy days. While there are various approaches to rainfall classification, this paper proposes rainfall classification based on weather variables. This paper explores the use of support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms for the binary classification of summer monsoon rainfall using common weather variables such as relative humidity, temperature, pressure. The daily data, for the summer monsoon months, for nineteen years, was collected for the Shivajinagar station of Pune in the state of Maharashtra, India. Classification accuracy of 82.1 and 82.8%, respectively, was achieved with SVM and ANN algorithms, for an imbalanced dataset. While performance parameters such as misclassification rate, F1 score indicate that better results were achieved with ANN, model parameter selection for SVM was less involved than ANN. Domain adaptation technique was used for rainfall classification at the other two stations of Maharashtra with the network trained for the Shivajinagar station. Satisfactory results for these two stations were obtained only after changing the training method for SVM and ANN.
On the performance analysis of rainfall prediction using mutual information...IJECEIAES
Monsoon rainfall prediction over a small geographic region is indeed a challenging task. This paper uses monthly means of climate variables, namely air temperature (AT), sea surface temperature (SST), and sea level pressure (SLP) over the globe, to predict monthly and seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over the state of Maharashtra, India. Mutual information correlates the temperature and pressure from a grid of 10 longitude X 10 latitude with Maharashtra’s monthly rainfall time series. Based on the correlations, selected features over the respective latitude and longitudes are given as inputs to an artificial neural network. It was observed that AT and SLP could predict monthly monsoon rainfall with excellent accuracy. The performance of the test dataset was evaluated through mean absolute error; root mean square error, correlation coefficient, Nash Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, and maximum rainfall prediction capability of the network. The individual climate variable model for AT performed better in all evaluation parameters except maximum rainfall capability, where the combined model 2 with AT, SLP and SST as predictors outperformed. The SLP-only model’s performance was comparable to the AT-only model. The combined model 1 with AT and SLP as predictors was found better than the combined model 2.
IJRET : International Journal of Research in Engineering and Technology is an international peer reviewed, online journal published by eSAT Publishing House for the enhancement of research in various disciplines of Engineering and Technology. The aim and scope of the journal is to provide an academic medium and an important reference for the advancement and dissemination of research results that support high-level learning, teaching and research in the fields of Engineering and Technology. We bring together Scientists, Academician, Field Engineers, Scholars and Students of related fields of Engineering and Technology.
International Journal of Engineering and Science Invention (IJESI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of computer science and electronics. IJESI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Engineering Science and Technology, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
Time Series Data Analysis for Forecasting – A Literature ReviewIJMER
In today's world there is ample opportunity to clout the numerous sources of time series data
available for decision making. This time ordered data can be used to improve decision making if the data
is converted to information and then into knowledge which is called knowledge discovery. Data Mining
(DM) methods are being increasingly used in prediction with time series data, in addition to traditional
statistical approaches. This paper presents a literature review of the use of DM and statistical approaches
with time series data, focusing on weather prediction. This is an area that has been attracting a great deal
of attention from researchers in the field.
Calibration of Environmental Sensor Data Using a Linear Regression Techniqueijtsrd
The linear regression is a linear approach for modeling the relationship between a scalar dependent variable y and one or more explanatory variables denoted X. A linear regression analysis method is used to improve the performance of the instruments using light scattering method. The data measured by these instruments have to be converted to actual PM10 concentrations using some factors. These findings propose that the instruments using light scattering method can be used to measure and control the PM10 concentrations of the underground subway stations. In this study, the reliability of the instrument for PM measurement using light scattering method was improved with the help of a linear regression analysis technique to continuously measure the PM10 concentrations in the subway stations. In addition, the linear regression analysis technique was also applied to calibrate a radon counter with the help of an expensive radon measuring apparatus. Chungyong Kim | Gyu-Sik Kim"Calibration of Environmental Sensor Data Using a Linear Regression Technique" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-2 | Issue-1 , December 2017, URL: http://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd7060.pdf http://www.ijtsrd.com/engineering/electrical-engineering/7060/calibration-of-environmental-sensor-data-using-a-linear-regression-technique/chungyong-kim
CLEARMiner: Mining of Multitemporal Remote Sensing ImagesEditor IJCATR
A new unsupervised algorithm, called CLimate and rEmote sensing Association patterns Miner, for mining association patterns on
heterogeneous time series from climate and remote sensing data, integrated in a remote sensing information system is developed to improve the
monitoring of sugar cane fields. The system, called RemoteAgri, consists of a large database of climate data and low-resolution remote sensing
images, an image pre-processing module, a time series extraction module, and time series mining methods. The time series mining method
transforms series to symbolic representation in order to identify patterns in a multitemporal satellite images and associate them with patterns in
other series within a temporal sliding window. The validation process was achieved with agro climatic data and NOAA-AVHRR images of
sugar cane fields. Rules generated by the new algorithm show the association patterns in different periods of time in each time series, pointing to
a time delay between the occurrences of patterns in the series analyzed, corroborating what specialists usually forecast without having the burden
of dealing with many data charts. This new method can be used by agro meteorologists to mine and discover knowledge from their long time
series of past and forecasting data, being a valuable tool to support their decision-making process.
International Telecommunication Union-Radiocommunication Sector P.837-6 and P...TELKOMNIKA JOURNAL
This work evaluated the performance of International Telecommunication Union-Radiocommunication Sector (ITU-R) P.837-6 and P.837-7 models (Annex 1) to estimate one-minute rainfall rates in Indonesia. In addition to the default ITU-R P.837-6, the input of ITU-R P.837-6 is also modified using data which has better spatial resolution, i.e. a combination of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3A25 and 3B43 (ITU-R+3A25+3B43), 3B42 and 3B43 (ITU-R+3B42+3B43), Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (ITU-R+GSMaP), and Global Precipitation Measurement (ITU-R+GPM). Among the five test sites, the default ITU-R P.837-6 and ITU-R+3A25+3B43 could predict one-minute rainfall rates at two locations accurately. The ITU-R P.837-7 exhibited a marginally better performance for sites that had a high percentage of very heavy rain, particularly at large (1%) and small (0.001%) percentages of time exceeded. The spatial distribution of rainfall rate produced by ITU-R P.837-7 and ITU-R+3A25+3B43 was closer to the pattern demonstrated by recent satellite precipitation measurements.
This paper proposes a Wavelet based Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (WANFIS) applied to forecast the wind power and enhance the accuracy of one step ahead with a 10 minutes resolution of real time data collected from a wind farm in North India. The proposed method consists two cases. In the first case all the inputs of wind series and output of wind power decomposition coefficients are carried out to predict the wind power. In the second case all the inputs of wind series decomposition coefficients are carried out to get wind power prediction. The performance of proposed WANFIS is compared to Wavelet Neural Network (WNN) and the results of the proposed model are shown superior to compared methods.
Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a future time and a given location. Now days, forecasting of accurate atmospheric conditions is the major challenge for the meteorologist and poor forecasting has significant impact on our daily lives. This brings the necessity to make research works on forecasting of the weather events with respect to Ethiopia.
Refining Underwater Target Localization and Tracking EstimatesCSCJournals
Improving the accuracy and reliability of the localization estimates and tracking of underwater targets is a constant quest in ocean surveillance operations. The localization estimates may vary owing to various noises and interferences such as sensor errors and environmental noises. Even though adaptive filters like the Kalman filter subdue these problems and yield dependable results, targets that undergo maneuvering can cause incomprehensible errors, unless suitable corrective measures are implemented. Simulation studies on improving the localization and tracking estimates for a stationary target as well as a moving target including the maneuvering situations are presented in this paper
NONLINEAR AUTOREGRESSIVE NETWORK WITH THE USE OF A MOVING AVERAGE METHOD FOR ...ijaia
Forecasting of a typhoon moving path may help to evaluate the potential negative impacts in the neighbourhood areas along the moving path. This study proposed a work of using both static and dynamic neural network models to link a time series of typhoon track parameters including longitude and latitude of the typhoon central location, cyclonic radius, central wind speed, and typhoon moving speed. Based on the historical records of 100 typhoons, the performances of neural network models are evaluated from the
indices of a correlation coefficient and a mean square error. The dynamic model or the so-called nonlinear autoregressive network with the use of a moving average method proved to forecast the ten types of typhoon moving path more effectively in Taiwan region. The new and simply approach developed in this study for solving studied typhoon cases may be applicable to other areas of interest worldwide..
Binary classification of rainfall time-series using machine learning algorithmsIJECEIAES
Summer monsoon rainfall contributes more than 75% of the annual rainfall in India. For the state of Maharashtra, India, this is more than 80% for almost all regions of the state. The high variability of rainfall during this period necessitates the classification of rainy and non-rainy days. While there are various approaches to rainfall classification, this paper proposes rainfall classification based on weather variables. This paper explores the use of support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms for the binary classification of summer monsoon rainfall using common weather variables such as relative humidity, temperature, pressure. The daily data, for the summer monsoon months, for nineteen years, was collected for the Shivajinagar station of Pune in the state of Maharashtra, India. Classification accuracy of 82.1 and 82.8%, respectively, was achieved with SVM and ANN algorithms, for an imbalanced dataset. While performance parameters such as misclassification rate, F1 score indicate that better results were achieved with ANN, model parameter selection for SVM was less involved than ANN. Domain adaptation technique was used for rainfall classification at the other two stations of Maharashtra with the network trained for the Shivajinagar station. Satisfactory results for these two stations were obtained only after changing the training method for SVM and ANN.
On the performance analysis of rainfall prediction using mutual information...IJECEIAES
Monsoon rainfall prediction over a small geographic region is indeed a challenging task. This paper uses monthly means of climate variables, namely air temperature (AT), sea surface temperature (SST), and sea level pressure (SLP) over the globe, to predict monthly and seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over the state of Maharashtra, India. Mutual information correlates the temperature and pressure from a grid of 10 longitude X 10 latitude with Maharashtra’s monthly rainfall time series. Based on the correlations, selected features over the respective latitude and longitudes are given as inputs to an artificial neural network. It was observed that AT and SLP could predict monthly monsoon rainfall with excellent accuracy. The performance of the test dataset was evaluated through mean absolute error; root mean square error, correlation coefficient, Nash Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, and maximum rainfall prediction capability of the network. The individual climate variable model for AT performed better in all evaluation parameters except maximum rainfall capability, where the combined model 2 with AT, SLP and SST as predictors outperformed. The SLP-only model’s performance was comparable to the AT-only model. The combined model 1 with AT and SLP as predictors was found better than the combined model 2.
WATERSHED MODELING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS IAEME Publication
Artificial Neural Networks analysis was used for modeling rainfall-runoff relationship. A new Instantaneous ANN watershed model was built and tried herein using Walnut Gulch watershed (catchment) area. For modeling the instantaneous response of a catchment to a rainfall event an ANN model was built shown herein. The built model can represent the actual response using descritized
rainfall-runoff values, over a selected time interval (∆t). As this time interval decreases the actual response is more accurately modeled. This model was applied to one of the sub-catchment of Walnut Gulch watershed (sub-catchment No.9 (flume 11)). The model was found successful to represent the lag-time and time of runoff related to the hyetograph properties
International Journal of Engineering and Science Invention (IJESI)inventionjournals
International Journal of Engineering and Science Invention (IJESI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of computer science and electronics. IJESI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Engineering Science and Technology, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
Statistical analysis of an orographic rainfall for eight north-east region of...IJICTJOURNAL
Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used to predict the rain rate for orographic rainfall over a long period of time, from 1980 to 1918. As the orographic rainfall may cause landslides and other natural disaster issues, So, this study is very important for the analysis of rainfall prediction. In this research, statistical calculations have been done based on the rainfall data for twelve regions of India (Cherrapunji, Darjeling, Dawki, Ghum, Itanagar, Kamchenjunga, Mizoram, Nagaland, Pakyong, Saser Kangri, Slot Kangri, and Tripura) from the eight states, i.e., Sikkim, Meghalaya, West Bengal, Ladakh (Union Territory of India), Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Tripura, and Nagaland) with varying altitude. The model's output is assessed using several error calculations. The model's performance is represented by the fit value, which is reliable for the northeast region of India with increasing altitude. The statistical dependability of the rainfall prediction is shown by the parameters. The lowest value of root mean square error (RMSE) indicates better prediction for orographic rainfall.
Comparison of Tropical Thunderstorm Estimation between Multiple Linear Regres...journalBEEI
Thunderstorms are dangerous and it has increased due to highly precipitation and cloud cover density in the Mesoscale Convective System area. Climate change is one of the causes to increasing the thunderstorm activity. The present studies aimed to estimate the thunderstorm activity at the Tawau area of Sabah, Malaysia based on the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Dvorak technique, and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). A combination of up to six inputs of meteorological data such as Pressure (P), Temperature (T), Relative Humidity (H), Cloud (C), Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV), and Precipitation (Pr) on a daily basis in 2012 were examined in the training process to find the best configuration system. By using Jacobi algorithm, H and PWV were identified to be correlated well with thunderstorms. Based on the two inputs that have been identified, the Sugeno method was applied to develop a Fuzzy Inference System. The model demonstrated that the thunderstorm activities during intermonsoon are detected higher than the other seasons. This model is comparable to the thunderstorm data that was collected manually with percent error below 50%.
A framework for cloud cover prediction using machine learning with data imput...IJECEIAES
The climatic conditions of a region are affected by multiple factors. These factors are dew point temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction. These factors are closely related to each other. In this paper, the correlation between these factors is studied and an approach has been proposed for data imputation. The idea is to utilize all these features to obtain the prediction of the total cloud cover of a region instead of removing the missing values. Total cloud cover prediction is significant because it affects the agriculture, aviation, and energy sectors. Based on the imputed data which is obtained as the output of the proposed method, a machine learning-based model is proposed. The foundation of this proposed model is the bi-directional approach of the long short-term memory (LSTM) model. It is trained for 8 stations for two different approaches. In the first approach, 80% of the entire data is considered for training and 20% of the data is considered for testing. In the second approach, 90% of the entire data is accounted for training and 10% of the data is accounted for testing. It is observed that in the first approach, the model gives less error for prediction.
Multi-task learning using non-linear autoregressive models and recurrent neur...IJECEIAES
Tide level forecasting plays an important role in environmental management and development. Current tide level forecasting methods are usually implemented for solving single task problems, that is, a model built based on the tide level data at an individual location is only used to forecast tide level of the same location but is not used for tide forecasting at another location. This study proposes a new method for tide level prediction at multiple locations simultaneously. The method combines nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) model and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), and incorporates them into a multi-task learning (MTL) framework. Experiments are designed and performed to compare single task learning (STL) and MTL with and without using non-linear autoregressive models. Three different RNN variants, namely, long short- term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU) and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) are employed together with non-linear autoregressive models. A case study on tide level forecasting at many different geographical locations (5 to 11 locations) is conducted. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed architectures outperform the classical single-task prediction methods.
EFFICACY OF NEURAL NETWORK IN RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELLING OF BAGMATI RIVER BASINIAEME Publication
In this paper, rainfall-runoff model of Bagmati river basin has been developed
using the ANN Technique. Three-layered fced forward network structure with back
propagation algorithm was used to train the ANN model. Different combinations of
rainfall and runoff were considered as input to the network and trained by BP
algorithm with different error tolerance, learning parameter, number of cycles and
number of hidden layers. The sensitivity of the prediction accuracy to the number of
hidden layer neurons in a back error propagation algorithm was used for the study.
The monthly rainfall and runoff data from 2000 to 2009 of Bagmati river basin has
been considered for the development of ANN model. Performance evaluation of the
model has been done by using statistical parameters. Three sets of data have been
used to make several combination of year keeping in view the highest peaks of
hydrographs. First set of data used was from 2000 to 2006 for the calibration and
from 2007 to 2009 for validation. The second set of data was from 2004 to 2009 for
calibration and from 2000 to 2003 for validation. The Third set of data was from 2000
to 2009 for calibration and from 2007 to 2009 for validation. It was found that the
third set of data gave better result than other two sets of data. The study demonstrates
the applicability of ANN approach in developing effective non-linear models of
Rainfall-Runoff process without the need to explicitly representing the internal
hydraulic structure of the watershed
ANN Modeling of Monthly and Weekly Behaviour of the Runoff of Kali River Catc...IOSR Journals
Model is a system, by whose operation; the characteristics of other similar systems can be ascertained. Experimental observation made on a model bear a definite relationship with prototype. So, the model analysis or modeling is actually an experimental method of finding solution of complex flow problems like surface water modeling, sub-surface water modeling etc. Many flow situations are not amenable to theoretical analysis. Modeling is a valuable means of obtaining better understanding of particular situation. Inspired by the functioning of the brain and biological nervous system, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) has been applied to various hydrological problems in last two decades. In this study, two ANN models using feed forward – back propagation network are developed to correlate a relationship between rainfall and runoff on monthly and weekly basis for Kali river catchment up to Supa dam in Uttara Kannada District of Karnataka State, India. The developed two models are compared and evaluated using standard statistical parameters to know strength and weaknesses. This performance can be further refined by incorporating more input parameters of catchment properties like soil moisture index; land use and land cover details etc.
Estimation of satellite link’s fade margin using non-meteorological techniqu...IJECEIAES
Satellite technology is shifting to higher frequencies such as Q or V-band to cater to greater bandwidth and higher data rates applications such as videoconferencing, internet of things (IoT) and telemedicine. The main challenge in deploying high-frequency bands in heavy precipitation areas is severe rain attenuation. In this paper, a frequency scaling technique was developed to estimate the fade margin at a higher frequency. The worst month analysis was also conducted since the analysis is also important in determining dependable fade margin. The result was evaluated and analyzed using root mean square error (RMSE) and percentage error. The proposed model offers the smallest RMSE and lowest percentage error when compared to all existing prediction models. A dependable fade margin acquired from high-accuracy rain attenuation estimation is very important. This is to apply the best mitigation technique in overcoming rain attenuation in the satellite-Earth link so that, the best system performance can be delivered.
Similar to IRJET- Rainfall Simulation using ANN based Generealized Feed Forward and MLR Technique (20)
Overview of the fundamental roles in Hydropower generation and the components involved in wider Electrical Engineering.
This paper presents the design and construction of hydroelectric dams from the hydrologist’s survey of the valley before construction, all aspects and involved disciplines, fluid dynamics, structural engineering, generation and mains frequency regulation to the very transmission of power through the network in the United Kingdom.
Author: Robbie Edward Sayers
Collaborators and co editors: Charlie Sims and Connor Healey.
(C) 2024 Robbie E. Sayers
Welcome to WIPAC Monthly the magazine brought to you by the LinkedIn Group Water Industry Process Automation & Control.
In this month's edition, along with this month's industry news to celebrate the 13 years since the group was created we have articles including
A case study of the used of Advanced Process Control at the Wastewater Treatment works at Lleida in Spain
A look back on an article on smart wastewater networks in order to see how the industry has measured up in the interim around the adoption of Digital Transformation in the Water Industry.
Sachpazis:Terzaghi Bearing Capacity Estimation in simple terms with Calculati...Dr.Costas Sachpazis
Terzaghi's soil bearing capacity theory, developed by Karl Terzaghi, is a fundamental principle in geotechnical engineering used to determine the bearing capacity of shallow foundations. This theory provides a method to calculate the ultimate bearing capacity of soil, which is the maximum load per unit area that the soil can support without undergoing shear failure. The Calculation HTML Code included.
Water scarcity is the lack of fresh water resources to meet the standard water demand. There are two type of water scarcity. One is physical. The other is economic water scarcity.
Industrial Training at Shahjalal Fertilizer Company Limited (SFCL)MdTanvirMahtab2
This presentation is about the working procedure of Shahjalal Fertilizer Company Limited (SFCL). A Govt. owned Company of Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation under Ministry of Industries.