The document discusses a study that used machine learning algorithms like ANN, SVM, and KNN to develop models for predicting moderate, severe, and extreme droughts over Pakistan. SVM-based models performed best in capturing the temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts. The models analyzed relationships between drought indicators (SPEI) and atmospheric variables (RH, temperature, wind speed) to improve drought prediction in different seasons. While the models showed skill, the study could be expanded by evaluating additional algorithms and reanalysis datasets.
Watershed Management for Sustainable Development of Rainfed areasAntaraPramanik
Development of watershed is one of the most trusted and eco-friendly approach to manage rainwater and other natural resources, which has paid rich dividends in the rainfed areas and is capable of addressing many natural, social and environmental issues. (Wani et al., 2003).
Over 120 million ha land area has been declared degraded (Maji et al., 2007) in India.
The annual soil loss rate in India is nearly 16.4 t/ha (Mandal and Sharda, 2013).
The loss of sediments caused by soil erosion not only deteriorates the quality of surface water, nearby water bodies, and wetlands but also reduces the productivity of agricultural land (Issaka and Ashraf, 2017).
Watershed technology is suitable to protect and enhance soil fertility, which is deteriorating at an alarming rate with agricultural intensification. A vast range of activities of every day life depends upon adequate supplies of water. For e.g. Agriculture and Industry, power production, inland transportation, sanitation and public health services and so on.
Therefore to provide all these activities construction of watershed and manage is essential.
Fast deterioration of natural resources is one of the key issues, threatening sustainable development of rainfed agriculture as most rainfed regions are facing multifaceted problems of land degradation, water shortage, acute poverty, and escalating population pressure.
Poor watershed management is a major cause of land and water degradation, rural poverty in India.
The management of watershed provides a means to achieve sustainable land and water management.
Improved and appropriate soil and water management practices are most important for sustainable and improved livelihoods in the rainfed areas because other technological interventions such as improved varieties, fertilizers, etc. are generally not so effective where soil is degraded and water is severely limited.
Remote Sensing Based Soil Moisture DetectionCIMMYT
Remote sensing –Beyond images
Mexico 14-15 December 2013
The workshop was organized by CIMMYT Global Conservation Agriculture Program (GCAP) and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), the Mexican Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA), the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), CGIAR Research Program on Maize, the Cereal System Initiative for South Asia (CSISA) and the Sustainable Modernization of the Traditional Agriculture (MasAgro)
Watershed Management for Sustainable Development of Rainfed areasAntaraPramanik
Development of watershed is one of the most trusted and eco-friendly approach to manage rainwater and other natural resources, which has paid rich dividends in the rainfed areas and is capable of addressing many natural, social and environmental issues. (Wani et al., 2003).
Over 120 million ha land area has been declared degraded (Maji et al., 2007) in India.
The annual soil loss rate in India is nearly 16.4 t/ha (Mandal and Sharda, 2013).
The loss of sediments caused by soil erosion not only deteriorates the quality of surface water, nearby water bodies, and wetlands but also reduces the productivity of agricultural land (Issaka and Ashraf, 2017).
Watershed technology is suitable to protect and enhance soil fertility, which is deteriorating at an alarming rate with agricultural intensification. A vast range of activities of every day life depends upon adequate supplies of water. For e.g. Agriculture and Industry, power production, inland transportation, sanitation and public health services and so on.
Therefore to provide all these activities construction of watershed and manage is essential.
Fast deterioration of natural resources is one of the key issues, threatening sustainable development of rainfed agriculture as most rainfed regions are facing multifaceted problems of land degradation, water shortage, acute poverty, and escalating population pressure.
Poor watershed management is a major cause of land and water degradation, rural poverty in India.
The management of watershed provides a means to achieve sustainable land and water management.
Improved and appropriate soil and water management practices are most important for sustainable and improved livelihoods in the rainfed areas because other technological interventions such as improved varieties, fertilizers, etc. are generally not so effective where soil is degraded and water is severely limited.
Remote Sensing Based Soil Moisture DetectionCIMMYT
Remote sensing –Beyond images
Mexico 14-15 December 2013
The workshop was organized by CIMMYT Global Conservation Agriculture Program (GCAP) and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), the Mexican Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA), the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), CGIAR Research Program on Maize, the Cereal System Initiative for South Asia (CSISA) and the Sustainable Modernization of the Traditional Agriculture (MasAgro)
Both climate change and global food demand are expected to become more severe in the upcoming decades. In terms of consistently growing population, the agricultural industry will need to embrace better methods to feed our people with a sufficient and healthy supply of food. The Internet of Things technology (IoT) is a breakthrough technology system that evolved from the convergence of wireless technologies and the Internet. Machine-to-machine (M2M) communication systems will be embedded in an objects’ manufacture and will operate automatically without human-to-computer interaction. This will allow information to be transmitted among wireless devices amongst the machines themselves. With IoT innovation, farmers and growers will be able to boost productivity, strengthen pest control and reduce possible energy waste during cultivation.
EPIC - Environmental Policy Integrated Model
This is a crop model used to access all the future output prior to the yield of a crop.
It analyzes all the parameters through the input which we provide.
It is highly useful for farmers to prevent crop losses by using such technologies.
Presentation by Alan Nicol from IWMI at the Land and Water Advantage event on the sidelines of COP23.
More information about the event series: https://bit.ly/AgAdvantage
Crop Yield Prediction and Efficient use of Fertilizers
To buy this project in ONLINE, Contact:
Email: jpinfotechprojects@gmail.com,
Website: https://www.jpinfotech.org
This is about survey the crop yield prediction using some data mining classification methods namely prdiction with classification,residue climate control, feature selection extraction, crop classification models,evaluation metrics, accuracy level,classification decision, result analysis,rain fall pH, principal component analysis, information gain
Floods can be hugely destructive, but they also offer opportunities for farmers and fisherfolk. If their frequency and extent can be measured, then we will be better able to mitigate costs and maximise benefits. Digital geospatial flood inundation mapping is a powerful new approach for flood response that shows floodwater extent and depth on the land surface. IWMI research will evaluate this new technology and develop a prototype flood inundation map for South Asia. Also discussed is a project to flood map and model in a spate irrigation system in Sudan.
Presented by IWMI's Giriraj Amarnath at an expert consultation meeting on the implementation of our South Asia Drought Monitoring System (SADMS) in Sri Lanka, at IWMI headquarters in Colombo, Sri Lanka, on September 26, 2017
Climate Change Impact Assessment on Hydrological Regime of Kali Gandaki BasinHI-AWARE
The presentation focuses on the findings of the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime and water balance components of the Kali Gandaki basin in Nepal. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used to predict future projections.
We can predict soil moisture level and motion of predators.
Irrigation system can be monitored .
Damage caused by predators is reduced.
Increased productivity.
Water conservation.
Profit to farmers.
Time Series Data Analysis for Forecasting – A Literature ReviewIJMER
In today's world there is ample opportunity to clout the numerous sources of time series data
available for decision making. This time ordered data can be used to improve decision making if the data
is converted to information and then into knowledge which is called knowledge discovery. Data Mining
(DM) methods are being increasingly used in prediction with time series data, in addition to traditional
statistical approaches. This paper presents a literature review of the use of DM and statistical approaches
with time series data, focusing on weather prediction. This is an area that has been attracting a great deal
of attention from researchers in the field.
Application of mathematical modelling in rainfall forcast a csae study in...eSAT Journals
Abstract Malaysia receives rainfall from 2000 mm to 4000 mm annually where it is greatly influenced by two monsoon periods in November to March and May to September. The state of Sarawak is well known for its long and wide rivers. Numerous activities such as commercial, industrial and residential can always be found in the vicinity of the rivers. The activities have started since decades ago and still continue to grow and spatially expanding through times providing incomes ranging from small farmers to the largest corporations. Unfortunately, these areas are expected to experience frequent flood events as well as possible receding water level in rivers based on the findings of previous studies. If the projections are accurate, the productivity of these activities will be reduced, hence, in a longer term may affect the economy of the state as whole as well. Therefore, there is an urgent need for existing knowledge on rainfall behavior to be revised as effects of climate change with the intention that the state can fully utilize the favorable conditions and make scientific based decisions in the future. Recent study reveals that the Fourier series (FS), has the ability to simulate long-term rainfall up to 300 years is viewed as an important finding in the study of rainfall forecast. Long-term rainfall forecasting is viewed to be beneficial to the state of Sarawak in its future planning in various sectors such as water supply, flood mitigation, river transportation as well as agriculture. The main goal of the study is to apply a mathematical modeling in rainfall forecasting for the Sungai Sarawak basin. Data from eight rain gauge stations was analyzed and prepared for missing data, consistency check and adequacy of number of stations. Simple statistical analysis was conducted on the data such as maximum, minimum, mean and standard deviation. 27 years of annual rainfall data were simulated with the Fourier Series equation using spreadsheet. Hence, the result was compared with the Fitting N-term Harmonic Series. The model result reveals that the Fourier Series has the ability to simulate the observed data by being able to describe the rainfall pattern and there is a reasonable relationship between the simulation and observed data with p-value of 0.93. Keywords: Fourier series, Mathematical
Both climate change and global food demand are expected to become more severe in the upcoming decades. In terms of consistently growing population, the agricultural industry will need to embrace better methods to feed our people with a sufficient and healthy supply of food. The Internet of Things technology (IoT) is a breakthrough technology system that evolved from the convergence of wireless technologies and the Internet. Machine-to-machine (M2M) communication systems will be embedded in an objects’ manufacture and will operate automatically without human-to-computer interaction. This will allow information to be transmitted among wireless devices amongst the machines themselves. With IoT innovation, farmers and growers will be able to boost productivity, strengthen pest control and reduce possible energy waste during cultivation.
EPIC - Environmental Policy Integrated Model
This is a crop model used to access all the future output prior to the yield of a crop.
It analyzes all the parameters through the input which we provide.
It is highly useful for farmers to prevent crop losses by using such technologies.
Presentation by Alan Nicol from IWMI at the Land and Water Advantage event on the sidelines of COP23.
More information about the event series: https://bit.ly/AgAdvantage
Crop Yield Prediction and Efficient use of Fertilizers
To buy this project in ONLINE, Contact:
Email: jpinfotechprojects@gmail.com,
Website: https://www.jpinfotech.org
This is about survey the crop yield prediction using some data mining classification methods namely prdiction with classification,residue climate control, feature selection extraction, crop classification models,evaluation metrics, accuracy level,classification decision, result analysis,rain fall pH, principal component analysis, information gain
Floods can be hugely destructive, but they also offer opportunities for farmers and fisherfolk. If their frequency and extent can be measured, then we will be better able to mitigate costs and maximise benefits. Digital geospatial flood inundation mapping is a powerful new approach for flood response that shows floodwater extent and depth on the land surface. IWMI research will evaluate this new technology and develop a prototype flood inundation map for South Asia. Also discussed is a project to flood map and model in a spate irrigation system in Sudan.
Presented by IWMI's Giriraj Amarnath at an expert consultation meeting on the implementation of our South Asia Drought Monitoring System (SADMS) in Sri Lanka, at IWMI headquarters in Colombo, Sri Lanka, on September 26, 2017
Climate Change Impact Assessment on Hydrological Regime of Kali Gandaki BasinHI-AWARE
The presentation focuses on the findings of the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime and water balance components of the Kali Gandaki basin in Nepal. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used to predict future projections.
We can predict soil moisture level and motion of predators.
Irrigation system can be monitored .
Damage caused by predators is reduced.
Increased productivity.
Water conservation.
Profit to farmers.
Time Series Data Analysis for Forecasting – A Literature ReviewIJMER
In today's world there is ample opportunity to clout the numerous sources of time series data
available for decision making. This time ordered data can be used to improve decision making if the data
is converted to information and then into knowledge which is called knowledge discovery. Data Mining
(DM) methods are being increasingly used in prediction with time series data, in addition to traditional
statistical approaches. This paper presents a literature review of the use of DM and statistical approaches
with time series data, focusing on weather prediction. This is an area that has been attracting a great deal
of attention from researchers in the field.
Application of mathematical modelling in rainfall forcast a csae study in...eSAT Journals
Abstract Malaysia receives rainfall from 2000 mm to 4000 mm annually where it is greatly influenced by two monsoon periods in November to March and May to September. The state of Sarawak is well known for its long and wide rivers. Numerous activities such as commercial, industrial and residential can always be found in the vicinity of the rivers. The activities have started since decades ago and still continue to grow and spatially expanding through times providing incomes ranging from small farmers to the largest corporations. Unfortunately, these areas are expected to experience frequent flood events as well as possible receding water level in rivers based on the findings of previous studies. If the projections are accurate, the productivity of these activities will be reduced, hence, in a longer term may affect the economy of the state as whole as well. Therefore, there is an urgent need for existing knowledge on rainfall behavior to be revised as effects of climate change with the intention that the state can fully utilize the favorable conditions and make scientific based decisions in the future. Recent study reveals that the Fourier series (FS), has the ability to simulate long-term rainfall up to 300 years is viewed as an important finding in the study of rainfall forecast. Long-term rainfall forecasting is viewed to be beneficial to the state of Sarawak in its future planning in various sectors such as water supply, flood mitigation, river transportation as well as agriculture. The main goal of the study is to apply a mathematical modeling in rainfall forecasting for the Sungai Sarawak basin. Data from eight rain gauge stations was analyzed and prepared for missing data, consistency check and adequacy of number of stations. Simple statistical analysis was conducted on the data such as maximum, minimum, mean and standard deviation. 27 years of annual rainfall data were simulated with the Fourier Series equation using spreadsheet. Hence, the result was compared with the Fitting N-term Harmonic Series. The model result reveals that the Fourier Series has the ability to simulate the observed data by being able to describe the rainfall pattern and there is a reasonable relationship between the simulation and observed data with p-value of 0.93. Keywords: Fourier series, Mathematical
Assessment of two Methods to study Precipitation PredictionAI Publications
Presipitation analysis plays an important role in hydrological studies. In this study, using 50 years of rainfall data and ARIMA model, critical areas of Iran were determined. For this purpose, annual rainfall data of 112 different synoptic stations in Iran were gathered. To summarize, it could be concluded that: ARIMA model was an appropriate tool to forecast annual rainfall. According to obtained results from relative error, five stations were in critical condition. At 45 stations accrued rainfalls with amounts of less than half of average in the 50-year period. Therefore, in these 45 areas, chance of drought is more than other areas of Iran.
Calculation of solar radiation by using regression methodsmehmet şahin
Abstract. In this study, solar radiation was estimated at 53 location over Turkey with
varying climatic conditions using the Linear, Ridge, Lasso, Smoother, Partial least, KNN
and Gaussian process regression methods. The data of 2002 and 2003 years were used to
obtain regression coefficients of relevant methods. The coefficients were obtained based on
the input parameters. Input parameters were month, altitude, latitude, longitude and landsurface
temperature (LST).The values for LST were obtained from the data of the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer
(NOAA-AVHRR) satellite. Solar radiation was calculated using obtained coefficients in
regression methods for 2004 year. The results were compared statistically. The most
successful method was Gaussian process regression method. The most unsuccessful method
was lasso regression method. While means bias error (MBE) value of Gaussian process
regression method was 0,274 MJ/m2, root mean square error (RMSE) value of method was
calculated as 2,260 MJ/m2. The correlation coefficient of related method was calculated as
0,941. Statistical results are consistent with the literature. Used the Gaussian process
regression method is recommended for other studies.
A comparative study of different imputation methods for daily rainfall data i...journalBEEI
Rainfall data are the most significant values in hydrology and climatology modelling. However, the datasets are prone to missing values due to various issues. This study aspires to impute the rainfall missing values by using various imputation method such as Replace by Mean, Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest, Non-linear Interactive Partial Least-Square (NIPALS) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Daily rainfall datasets from 48 rainfall stations across east-coast Peninsular Malaysia were used in this study. The dataset were then fed into Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model. The performance of abovementioned methods were evaluated using Root Mean Square Method (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (CE). The experimental results showed that RF coupled with MLR (RF-MLR) approach was attained as more fitting for satisfying the missing data in east-coast Peninsular Malaysia.
FEED FORWARD BACK PROPAGATION NEURAL NETWORK COUPLED WITH RICE DATA SIMULATOR...ijcseit
This paper is the continuation of the paper published by the authors Arun Balaji and Baskaran [2].
Multiple linear regression (MLR) equations were developed between the years of rice cultivation and Feed
Forward Back Propagation Neural Network (FFBPNN) method of predicted area of rice cultivation / rice
production for different districts pertaining to Kuruvai, Samba and Kodai seasons in Tamilnadu. The
average r
2
value in area of cultivation is 0.40 in Kuruvai season, 0.42 in Samba season and 0.46 in Kodai
season, where as the r2
value in rice production is 0.31 in Kuruvai season, 0.23 in Samba season and
0.42 in Kodai season. The Rice Data Simulator (RDS) predicted the area of rice cultivation and rice
production using the MLR equations developed in this research. The range of average predicted area for
Kuruvai, Samba and Kodai seasons varies from 12052.52 ha to 13595.32 ha, 48998.96 ha to 53324.54 ha
and 4241.23 ha to 6449.88 ha respectively whereas the range of average predicted rice production varies
from 45132.88 tonnes to 46074.48 tonnes in Kuruvai, 128619 tonnes to 139693.29 tonnes in Samba and
15446.07 to 20573.50 tonnes in Kodai seasons. The mean absolute relative error (ARE) between the
FFBPNN and multiple regression methods of prediction of area of rice cultivation was found to be 15.58%,
8.04% and 26.34% for the Kuruvai, Samba and the Kodai seasons respectively. The ARE for the rice
production was found to be 17%, 11.80% and 24.60% for the Kuruvai, Samba and the Kodai seasons
respectively. The paired t test between the FFBPNN and MLR methods of predicted area of cultivation in
Kuruvai shows that there is no significant difference between the two types of prediction for certain
districts.
FEED FORWARD BACK PROPAGATION NEURAL NETWORK COUPLED WITH RICE DATA SIMULATOR...ijcseit
This paper is the continuation of the paper published by the authors Arun Balaji and Baskaran [2].
Multiple linear regression (MLR) equations were developed between the years of rice cultivation and Feed
Forward Back Propagation Neural Network (FFBPNN) method of predicted area of rice cultivation / rice
production for different districts pertaining to Kuruvai, Samba and Kodai seasons in Tamilnadu. The
average r
2
value in area of cultivation is 0.40 in Kuruvai season, 0.42 in Samba season and 0.46 in Kodai
season, where as the r2
value in rice production is 0.31 in Kuruvai season, 0.23 in Samba season and
0.42 in Kodai season. The Rice Data Simulator (RDS) predicted the area of rice cultivation and rice
production using the MLR equations developed in this research. The range of average predicted area for
Kuruvai, Samba and Kodai seasons varies from 12052.52 ha to 13595.32 ha, 48998.96 ha to 53324.54 ha
and 4241.23 ha to 6449.88 ha respectively whereas the range of average predicted rice production varies
from 45132.88 tonnes to 46074.48 tonnes in Kuruvai, 128619 tonnes to 139693.29 tonnes in Samba and
15446.07 to 20573.50 tonnes in Kodai seasons. The mean absolute relative error (ARE) between the
FFBPNN and multiple regression methods of prediction of area of rice cultivation was found to be 15.58%,
8.04% and 26.34% for the Kuruvai, Samba and the Kodai seasons respectively. The ARE for the rice
production was found to be 17%, 11.80% and 24.60% for the Kuruvai, Samba and the Kodai seasons
respectively. The paired t test between the FFBPNN and MLR methods of predicted area of cultivation in
Kuruvai shows that there is no significant difference between the two types of prediction for certain
districts.
The two main challenges of predicting the wind speed depend on various atmospheric factors and random variables. This paper explores the possibility of developing a wind speed prediction model using different Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Categorical Regression empirical model which could be used to estimate the wind speed in Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India using SPSS software. The proposed Neural Network models are tested on real time wind data and enhanced with statistical capabilities. The objective is to predict accurate wind speed and to perform better in terms of minimization of errors using Multi Layer Perception Neural Network (MLPNN), Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) and Categorical Regression (CATREG). Results from the paper have shown good agreement between the estimated and measured values of wind speed.
Binary classification of rainfall time-series using machine learning algorithmsIJECEIAES
Summer monsoon rainfall contributes more than 75% of the annual rainfall in India. For the state of Maharashtra, India, this is more than 80% for almost all regions of the state. The high variability of rainfall during this period necessitates the classification of rainy and non-rainy days. While there are various approaches to rainfall classification, this paper proposes rainfall classification based on weather variables. This paper explores the use of support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms for the binary classification of summer monsoon rainfall using common weather variables such as relative humidity, temperature, pressure. The daily data, for the summer monsoon months, for nineteen years, was collected for the Shivajinagar station of Pune in the state of Maharashtra, India. Classification accuracy of 82.1 and 82.8%, respectively, was achieved with SVM and ANN algorithms, for an imbalanced dataset. While performance parameters such as misclassification rate, F1 score indicate that better results were achieved with ANN, model parameter selection for SVM was less involved than ANN. Domain adaptation technique was used for rainfall classification at the other two stations of Maharashtra with the network trained for the Shivajinagar station. Satisfactory results for these two stations were obtained only after changing the training method for SVM and ANN.
Comparative Study of Machine Learning Algorithms for Rainfall Predictionijtsrd
Majority of Indian framers depend on rainfall for agriculture. Thus, in an agricultural country like India, rainfall prediction becomes very important. Rainfall causes natural disasters like flood and drought, which are encountered by people across the globe every year. Rainfall prediction over drought regions has a great importance for countries like India whose economy is largely dependent on agriculture. A sufficient data length can play an important role in a proper estimation drought, leading to a better appraisal for drought risk reduction. Due to dynamic nature of atmosphere statistical techniques fail to provide good accuracy for rainfall prediction. So, we are going to use Machine Learning algorithms like Multiple Linear Regression, Random Forest Regressor and AdaBoost Regressor, where different models are going to be trained using training data set and tested using testing data set. The dataset which we have collected has the rainfall data from 1901 2015, where across the various drought affected states. Nonlinearity of rainfall data makes Machine Learning algorithms a better technique. Comparison of different approaches and algorithms will increase an accuracy rate of predicting rainfall over drought regions. We are going to use Python to code for algorithms. Intention of this project is to say, which algorithm can be used to predict rainfall, in order to increase the countries socioeconomic status. Mylapalle Yeshwanth | Palla Ratna Sai Kumar | Dr. G. Mathivanan M.E., Ph.D ""Comparative Study of Machine Learning Algorithms for Rainfall Prediction"" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-3 | Issue-3 , April 2019, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd22961.pdf
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Runoff Prediction of Gharni River Catchment of Maharashtra by Regressional An...ijtsrd
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RAINFALL PREDICTION USING DATA MINING TECHNIQUES - A SURVEYcscpconf
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make the comparison between the two models. These parameters include the Root Mean Square Error RMSE, Mean Absolute Error MAE, Coefficient Of Correlation CC and BIAS. Two-Third of the data was used for training the model and One-third for testing.
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Prediction droughts using machine learning algorithm
1. Prediction of droughts over Pakistan using
machine learning algorithms
Presented By
KARTIK JADAV(19AG62R19)
Agricultural and Food Engineering Department, Indian Institute
of Technology Kharagpur, India
Reference : Najeebullah Khan, D.A. Sachindra , Shamsuddin Shahid , Kamal Ahmed a ,
Mohammed Sanusi Shiru , Nadeem Nawaz “Prediction of droughts over Pakistan using
machine learning algorithms ”, Advances in Water Resources(2020) Volume 139, May
2020, 103562
2. Motivation
Why study had been done?
The main objective of this study was to develop ML-based models for
predicting moderate, severe and extreme droughts over Pakistan based on
the SPEI.
Context of the study
In this study, the drought prediction models were developed using ANN,
SVM and KNN.
Contribution
As droughts have a direct relationship with the availability of water, their
changing characteristics due to changing climate will have a pro- found
impact on water stress and food security.
3. REVIEW OF LITERATURE
Author Year Findings
Ganguli and
Reddy
2014 SVM is able to learn from a much smaller data set and
is capable of handling a large number of variables. SVM
may overcome certain limitations of ANN such as
trapping at local minima and overfitting, to some extent
in predicting droughts
Yang et al 2015 Among the ML techniques, ANN and SVM can be
regarded as the most widely used techniques for
developing drought prediction models
4. Study area and datasets
• Pakistan located in South
Asia covers an area of
796,095 km2.
• Pakistan experiences two
monsoon precipitation
seasons; IM (July–Sep),
WD (Dec–Mar).
Fig. 1. IM refers to the regions which receive
precipitation mainly during the Indian monsoon and
WD refers to the regions which receive
precipitation mainly during the western
disturbance.
5. • It experiences four seasons (based on temperature) cool and dry winter
(Dec–Feb), hot and dry spring (Mar–May), hot and humid summer (Jun–Aug)
and dry autumn (Sep–Nov)
• During these two precipitation seasons, two important cropping seasons
called Kharif (May-Oct) observed during the Indian monsoon period
• The Rabi (Nov-Apr) is experienced during the western disturbances
• These cropping seasons play an important role in agriculture and the
economy of Pakistan
6. Gridded precipitation and
temperature datasets
• This study uses the Princeton global forcing (PGF) gridded temperature
and precipitation datasets for estimating the SPEI (NCEP/NCAR datasets)
• The PGF gridded temperature and precipitation datasets have a resolution
of 0.25 ×0.25 in the latitudinal and longitudinal directions and hence the
data are available at 1437 grid points over Pakistan.
• These data were used in the calculation of SPEI at each of the 1437 grid
points distributed over Pakistan, Among which 531 grid points lie in the
region of WD and 906 grid points lie in the IM dominated region
7. Method
1–6-month SPEIs were calculated for each of the grid points
Based on 1–6-month SPEIs droughts were categorized
Different large-scale atmospheric variables (probable predictors) that are
influential on droughts were identified based on past literature
Principle Component Analysis (PCA) was used to generate the Principal
Components (PCs) from the data
The difference between the PCs for February and April(Kharif) and difference
between the PCs for October and August(Rabi) were computed.
The PCs selected using SVM-RFE they were used in the development of
drought prediction models
the correlations between the PCs and 1–6-month SPEI were separately
calculated
ML-algorithms were used to develop drought prediction
8. PCA
Why?
• Overfitting (Due to too much features and attribute we gave
during training phase so model is confused and problem of
overfitting occur)
• PCA is Linear projection method to reduce number of
parameters(Attributes and features).
1. Standardize the data
2. Calculate the covariance matrix
3. Find the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of covariance matrix
4. Plot the eigenvectors/principal components over scaled data
9. SVM
• SVM is a widely used ML algorithm that can be used in developing
classification and regression models.
• However, Sachindra et al. (2018) showed that the polynomial kernel
performs better with SVM. Hence, the polynomial kernel was used in this
study.
• The polynomial kernel is defined as
. 𝐾 (𝑥 𝑖 , 𝑥 𝑗 )= (𝑥 𝑖 . 𝑥 𝑗 + 𝑐 ) 𝑑
Where, 𝑥 𝑖 and 𝑥 𝑗 are the predictor and predictand data, d is the degree of
the polynomial, and c is a constant that allows a trade-off between the
influence of the higher and lower order terms.
10. ANN
• .To reduce the chances of overfitting, a technique known as Bayesian
regularization was developed ( Burden and Winkler, 2008 ; MacKay,
1992 ; Ticknor, 2013 ).
𝐹 = 𝛽E D + 𝛼E w
• In the Bayesian network, the weights are considered random variables
and thus their density function is expressed following the Bayes’ rules
𝑃 ( 𝑤 |𝐷, 𝛼, 𝛽, M) =
𝑃 (D |w , 𝛽, M) P(w |𝛼, M)
𝑃 (D |𝛼, 𝛽, M)
Where w is the vector of network weights, D
represents the predictor and the predictand data
vectors (x, y), and M is the neural network model
being used, 𝛼 and 𝛽 are Regularization
11. K-Nearest Neighbour
• The KNN for classification and regression is the simplest non-parametric ML
techniques
• KNN algorithm finds the k Nearest Neighbours from calibration data using a
distance measure such as the Euclidean distance
𝑑 𝑗𝑜 = 𝑖=1
݊ (𝑥 𝑖𝑗 − 𝑥 𝑖𝑜 )2 𝑡 = 1 , 2 , 3 , …., ݊
• For calculating KNN simulated values ( Zr ) Zk refers to the neighbouring data
and f k ( dj ) is the kernel function
𝑍 𝑟 = ݇ =1
𝐾 ݂݇ (𝑑𝑗 ×𝑍݇ ).
12. Performance assessment
1) The coefficient of determination (R2 )
varies between 0 (no agreement) and 1
(perfect agreement)
2) The normalized root mean squared error
(NRMSE) varies between 0 (perfect
agreement) and +∞(no agreement)
3) Percentage of bias (Pbias) varies between
- ∞(underestimation) and +∞(over-
estimation) and a value of 0 refers to a
perfect agreement
4) lThe modified index of agreement ( md )
varies between 0 (no agreement) and 1
(perfect agreement)
N is the number of testing samples. Oi are
the ith observation, Si are the i th simulated
value, sd is the standard deviation of the
observations.
13. Results and Discussion
Fig. 2. Climate domain used in the present study, 861 NCEP/NCAR grid
points spread across the climate domain are depicted in grey circles.
14. Fig. 3. The spatial pattern of the correlation coefficient of the RH, atm temperature and wind
component (925hPa) during the Rabi and Kharif periods. The correlation is calculated with
6-month SPEI in April for Rabi and in October for Kharif. The dots represent the significant
correlation at 95% confidence level with the SPEI.
15. Fig. 4. Boxplots showing correlations of the selected atmospheric variables at four
pressure levels i.e. 925, 850, 700 and 500 hPa (except SLP) with the SPEI of Pakistan
Red boxplots (Rabi season) Blue (Kharif season)
16. Fig. 5. Performance of different machine learning-based models in
predicting moderate droughts in the Rabi season.
17. Fig. 6. Performance of different machine learning-based models
in predicting moderate droughts in the Kharif season.
18. Fig.7. Boxplots of the spatial correlation and NRMSE for the Rabi and Kharif
seasons for the month of April shown in red and blue colours respectively.
19. Conclusions
• In this study, it was seen that KNN-based drought models display limited
performance comparison to other drought models
• SVM-based models were able to better capture the temporal and spatial
characteristics of droughts
• It was found that in the Rabi season SPEI is positively correlated with RH
over the Mediterranean Sea and the region north of the Caspian Sea,
whereas in the Kharif season SPEI is positively correlated with the humid
region over the south-eastern part of the Bay of Bengal and Caspian Seas.
20. • Rabi season SPEI also displayed statistically significant positive
correlations with atmospheric temperature over the region north of the
Mediterranean Sea.
• Also, wind speeds over the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea during
the Kharif season were statistically significantly correlated with SPEI
.
• This indicated that RH, temperature and wind speed are indicators of
droughts over Pakistan.
21. Limitations of this study
• The present study used only one reanalysis dataset (NCEP/NCAR) to provide
inputs to the drought prediction models.
• In order to study the uncertainties which originate from the inputs, different
reanalysis datasets should be used in developing drought prediction models.
• However, this was not performed as the other major reanalysis datasets
either did not have data for some of the specific atmospheric variables used
in this study or they did not have data corresponding to the period 1948–
2016.
22. Future scope
• Sachindra and Kanae (2019) proved that Parallel Multi-Population Genetic
Programming (PMPGP)-based statistical downscaling models show better
generalization skills and higher resistance to redundant information in
inputs compared to those based on traditional GP.
• Thus, other ML algorithms such as Extreme Learning Machine (ELM),
Genetic Programming (GP), PMPGP, and Random Forest (RF) should also
be tested in future for developing drought prediction models over Pakistan.
23. References
• Najeebullah Khan, D.A. Sachindra , Shamsuddin Shahid ,
Kamal Ahmed a , Mohammed Sanusi Shiru , Nadeem Nawaz
“Prediction of droughts over Pakistan using machine learning
algorithms ”, Advances in Water Resources(2020) Volume
139, May 2020, 103562
• Ganguli, P. , Reddy, M.J. , 2014. Ensemble prediction of
regional droughts using climate inputs and the SVM–copula
approach. Hydrol. Process. 28, 4989–5009