SQL Database Design For Developers at php[tek] 2024
8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
1. Actuaciones específicas de gestión
para la adaptación
Craig D. Allen
USGS Jemez Mountains Field Station
Bandelier National Monument
Los Alamos, New Mexico
Western Mountain Initiative
3. Efectos ecologicos del
cambio climático –
Sierra Nevada, octubre 2005
Andalucia
Fuego
Presa baja, sur de Portugal,
octubre 2005
Sierra Nevada, octubre 2005
Sequia
Erosion
4. Pinus sylvestris, en Sierra Nevada 2006
Quercus ilex, en Sierra Nevada 2006
Mortalidad
de arboles
Efectos ecologicos del
cambio climático –
Andalucia
Pinus sylvestris, en Sierra de Filabres – foto: Rafael Navarro
5. Climate Summits…
Yeah, right !
and this is the 14th already.. And you worse !
You even more !
Get out of here !
6. No action in the face of
climate change
is a decision that may carry
the greatest risk.
7. But, what actions
should we take?
Do we have
science-based,
practical options
for directly
managing
ecosystems
in flux,
to adapt to
climate change?
Vamos, vamos - uno, u otro…
8. A scientific basis for developing
adaptation options
US Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and
Assessment Product 4.4 (SAP 4.4)
Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive
Ecosystems and Resources
National Forests
National Parks
National Wildlife Refuges
Wild and Scenic Rivers
National Estuaries
Marine Protected Areas
Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)
9.
10.
11. Adapting to Climate Change in US
National Forests
Geoffrey M. Blate*, Linda Joyce, Susan Julius, Jeremy Littell,
Steve McNulty, Connie Millar, Susi Moser, Ron Nielson, Kathy
O’Hallaran, Dave Peterson, and Jordan West
August 2008
12. Synthesis for USFS - Overall Findings
Adaptation options for managing for resilience
General Approaches Examples
Protect key ecosystem features Facilitate dispersal
Reduce anthropogenic stressors Prevent invasives; reduce pollution
Representation Increase genetic / habitat diversity
Replication Protect replicate populations
Restoration Use natives post-disturbance
Refugia ID / protect refugia for at-risk species
Relocation Assist species migrations
13. Confronting Climate Change Will Require
Coordination & Collaboration
Multiple
jurisdictions
across large
landscapes
14.
15. Managing in the Face of Change
A Toolbox of Options
Adaptation Strategies:
Practice Resistance
Increase Resilience
Allow Forests to Respond
Realign Highly Altered Ecosystems
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21. Management - Research Dialogue
Assessments – Tools - Practices
No Advance Planning Be Proactive:
for climate change Plan in Advance
React after Disturbance
or Extreme Events
22. Management - Research Dialogue
Assessments – Tools - Practices
No Advance Planning Be Proactive:
for climate change Plan in Advance
React after Disturbance
or Extreme Events
23.
24. Adapting to Climate Change
through Science-Management
Partnerships
Dave Peterson
US Forest Service
Pacific Northwest Research Station
25. General adaptation strategies
Implement adaptive management
Incorporate uncertainty in science and
management
View ecological disturbance as an
opportunity
Work with your neighbors – collaborate
with other organizations
26. General adaptation strategies
Implement adaptive management
Incorporate uncertainty in science and
management
View ecological disturbance as an
opportunity
Work with your neighbors – collaborate
with other organizations
27. Adaptation strategy #1
Increase landscape diversity
Increase resilience at large scales
--Treatments and spatial configurations
that minimize loss of large number of
structural and functional groups
Increase size of management units
-- Much larger treatments and
age/structural classes
Increase connectivity
28. Adaptation strategy #2
Maintain biological diversity
Modify genetic guidelines
Experiment with mixed
species, mixed genotypes
Assist colonization, establish
neo-native species
Identify species, populations,
and communities that are
sensitive to increased disturbance
29. Adaptation strategy #3
Plan for post-disturbance
management:
Treat fire and other ecological
disturbance as normal, periodic
occurrences
Incorporate fire management and
other disturbance options in land
management policies and plans
30. Adaptation strategy #4
Reduce non-climatic
sources of stress
Implement early detection/rapid
response to control exotic species
Reduce sources of air pollution,
toxins, erosion, etc. to the extent
possible
31. Adaptation strategy #5
Manage for realistic outcomes
Identify key thresholds for species Critical
Threshold
Temperature
Increase
and processes.
Climate
Climatic Variability
Determine which thresholds will be Time
exceeded (e.g., salmon & cold water).
Prioritize projects with high
probability of success; abandon
hopeless causes (triage).
32. Adaptation strategy #6
Incorporate climate change
in restoration
Reduce emphasis on historical
references
Reduce use of guidelines based
on static relationships (e.g., plant
associations)
33. Advice from “The Great One”
quot;I skate to where the
puck is going to be, not to
where it has been.quot;
─ Wayne Gretzky
34. quot;I run to where the ball is
going to be, not to where
it has been.quot;
─ Fernando Torres
35. Adaptation strategy #7
Anticipate big surprises
Expect mega-droughts, larger
fires, system collapses,
species extirpations, etc.
Incorporate these phenomena
in planning
36. Current thinking often emphasizes gradual changes.
Climate
Time
Ecosystem state
Time
Nate Stephenson
37. However, abrupt climatic change can lead to abrupt
ecosystem change.
Climate
Time
Ecosystem state
Time
Nate Stephenson
38. However, gradual climatic change may trigger
abrupt ecosystem change (threshold response).
Climate
Time
Ecosystem state
Time
Nate Stephenson
39. Lessons Learned – Keys for Success
• Start with this premise:
Managers produce the adaptation
options
• Establish a strong science-management
collaboration
• Provide scientific documentation to
support adaptation strategies
• Customize the adaptation process for
preferences by resource managers
• Include stakeholders and the general
public in the adaptation process
Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)
40. Lessons Learned – Keys for Success
• Start with this premise:
Managers produce the adaptation
options
• Establish a strong science-management
collaboration
• Provide scientific documentation to
support adaptation strategies
• Customize the adaptation process for
preferences by resource managers
• Include stakeholders and the general
public in the adaptation process
Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)
47. Intervention Points Potential Actions Desired Responses
Purchase water rights Reduce
Withdrawals
withdrawals
Water conservation
Snowpack Increase local High flows
Build snow fences
management snowpack
High elevation Install check dams Increase rain Peaked
streamflow
retention hydrograph
Beaver
Reintroduce beaver
populations
Maintain
Reduce / remove roads water quality
Impervious
surfaces
Decrease
Reduce livestock
sedimentation Maintain
density
Grazing appropriate
practices water T
Fence riparian areas
Increase
Riparian riparian shading
vegetation Restore riparian
vegetation
48. Interagency collaboration
Olympic National Forest and Olympic
National Park are developing a climate-
change vulnerability assessment and
adaptation options for the Olympic Peninsula
• Water
• Vegetation
• Fisheries
• Wildlife
• Roads and
infrastructure
Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)
49. WESTERN
MOUNTAIN
INITIATIVE
Understand and predict responses of
Western mountain ecosystems to
climatic variability and change –
Collaborative research among:
USGS, USFS, NPS, USA universities,
+ international
Univ Alicante
Sierra Nevada, UGR
63. Reduced surface cover, increasing bare soil connectivity can lead to:
Threshold response - increased erosion
Soil Erosion Behavior
Decreasing Erosion
Decreasing Cover
64. Uncertainty: Disturbance Interactions
• Interactions among dieback, insects, fire, and erosion can amplify the
individual disturbance processes.
• Predicted climate changes could further accelerate these disturbance
processes.
70. So, we can reduce
forest densities with
combinations of
mechanical thinning
and prescribed fire.
71. There is good evidence that some types of forest treatments in forests
can mitigate climate-related wildfire events.
72. So, the need, and opportunity, exists here for collaborative, landscape-scale management….
73. Mechanical treatments are now being
applied at broad scales.
These can also have other ecosystem
benefits, e.g., coarse mulching with
woody debris increases surface cover
and infiltration capacity, leading to
increased herbaceous growth.
78. Active crown fires
burn explosively,
primarily in canopy
needles and twigs,
<1 cm diameter,
leaving scorched
trunks and branches
unconsumed.
So, crown fire risks
probably decrease
once dead needles
drop.
Post-crown
Post-dieback fire
79. high
FIRE HAZARD Canopy Fire
Surface Fire
Dead trees start to fall,
Herb and shrub and
Live Dieback, Dead needles off trees, tree regrowth,
Coarse woody
low
stressed dead needles Surface fine fuels ,
forest on dead trees More exposed site surface fuels
TIME
80. Partial forest die-back
= natural thinning
- might be beneficial for
some forests…
- increased resilience to
further mortality
- reduced crown fire risk
81. Fuego, Sierra Nevada,
septiembre 2005
Cooperative Post-Fire Research Project,
en Parque Nacional Sierra Nevada:
-Univ. de Granada (Dr. Jorge Castro, Dr.
Regino Zamora);
-the Direction of the Natural and
National Parks of Sierra Nevada;
- the Consejería de Medio Ambiente of
Granada (Junta de Andalucía);
-Empresa de Gestión Medio Ambiental
S.A. (EGMASA);
- USGS.
85. Initial results:
Better tree regeneration (P. pinaster), higher
biodiversity (e.g., plants, birds), in partial cutting
with coarse slash left, or no intervention.
86.
87. Lots of useful climate change adaptation resources online, for example:
Natural Resources Canada:
http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/synth/adapt_e.php
USFS Climate Change Resource Center website:
http://www.fs.fed.us/ccrc/
90. Think Globally,
Act Locally --
Together…
Together
There’s no place like home…
While everyone is a citizen of the Earth,
we all call a local landscape “home”.
Our shared home landscapes are the
best place to engage students and the
public, and are essential places to learn
and work together to address the
challenges of climate change.
94. We can and must learn together through science and adaptive resource management – MNDDB’s !!!
95. White dots indicate documented localities with increased forest mortality related to climatic stress
from drought and high temperatures. Background map shows potential limits to vegetation net
primary production (Boisvenue and Running 2006).
Allen et al – in review
