Presentation by Linda Nagel to introduce the Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC) J.W. Jones Ecological Research Center Workshop held January 12-14, 2016

1. ADAPTATION AND
SILVICULTURAL
DECISION-MAKING
SRS
NRS
RMRS
Chippewa NF
San Juan NF
The Joseph W. Jones Ecological Research Center
January 12, 2016

2. Adaptation and Mitigation = Synergistic
Mitigation Adaptation
Sequester Carbon in Trees,
Forests, and Products
Conserve Carbon Stocks
Strengthen Adaptability of Forest-
Dependent Communities
Create Better-Adapted Forests
Mitigation
Modified from FAO 2010

3. Adaptation and Mitigation Defined
ADAPTATION
• Adjustment of human or natural systems in response to
climate change
– Position forests to become more healthy, resistant, &
resilient
– Facilitate ecosystem responses to climate change
when appropriate
MITIGATION
• Human activities to reduce the effects of climate change
by reducing sources and enhancing sinks of greenhouse
gases

4. What actions can be taken to
enhance the ability of a system to
cope with change
and
meet goals and objectives?

5. Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate
Change
Trajectory
?
Climate-Driven Changes

6. Uncertainty and Risk
Design actions that are robust across
a range of potential future conditions

7. Option #1 – Resistance
Improve the defenses of the forest against anticipated changes or
directly defend the forest against disturbance in order to maintain
relatively unchanged conditions
• Short-term
• High-value
Millar et al. 2007, 2008

8. Option #1 – Resistance
Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate
Change
Trajectory
?

9. Option #2 – Resilience
Accommodate some degree of change, but encourage a return to a
prior condition after disturbance
Millar et al. 2007, 2008
Photo: USFS

10. Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate
Change
Trajectory
?
Option #2 – Resilience

11. Option #3 – Transition (Response)
Intentionally accommodate change and enable ecosystems to
adaptively respond to changing/new conditions
Millar et al. 2007, 2008

12. TIME
Climate
Change
Trajectory
?
Option #3 – Transition (Response)

13. Reduce climate
change impacts
Promote
change
Facilitate adaptive
responses
Maintain
current
conditions
Resistance
Transition
(Response)
Resilience
Adaptation Options

14. Forest Adaptation Resources
Adaptation Workbook

Strategies & Approaches

Menu of adaptation actions
Swanston and Janowiak 2012;
www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543
• Structured process to
integrate climate
change considerations
into management
Workbook approach

15. Swanston and Janowiak 2012: www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543, Janowiak et al. 2014
1. DEFINE area of
interest, management
objectives, and time
frames.
2. ASSESS climate
change impacts and
vulnerabilities for the
area of interest.
3. EVALUATE
management
objectives given
projected impacts and
vulnerabilities.
4. IDENTIFY and
implement adaptation
approaches and
tactics .
5. MONITOR and
evaluate effectiveness
of implemented
actions.
Identifying Adaptation Tactics

16. Swanston and Janowiak 2012: www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543, Janowiak et al. 2014
1. DEFINE area of
interest, management
objectives, and time
frames.
2. ASSESS climate
change impacts and
vulnerabilities for the
area of interest.
3. EVALUATE
management
objectives given
projected impacts and
vulnerabilities.
4. IDENTIFY and
implement adaptation
approaches and
tactics .
5. MONITOR and
evaluate effectiveness
of implemented
actions.
Vulnerability
assessments,
scientific literature,
and other resources
Identifying Adaptation Tactics

17. Swanston and Janowiak 2012: www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543, Janowiak et al. 2014
1. DEFINE area of
interest, management
objectives, and time
frames.
2. ASSESS climate
change impacts and
vulnerabilities for the
area of interest.
3. EVALUATE
management
objectives given
projected impacts and
vulnerabilities.
4. IDENTIFY and
implement adaptation
approaches and
tactics.
5. MONITOR and
evaluate effectiveness
of implemented
actions.
Vulnerability
assessments,
scientific literature,
and other resources
Adaptation
Strategies and
Approaches
Identifying Adaptation Tactics

18. Forest Adaptation Resources
• 10 strategies, 40 approaches
• Result of literature review & expert
feedback and review
• Provides a “menu” of possible
actions to choose from based upon
your needsSwanston and Janowiak 2012;
www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543
Strategies & Approaches

Menu of adaptation actions

19. Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
CONCEPT
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

20. Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
CONCEPT
Resistance
Resilience
Transition

21. Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
CONCEPT

22. Adaptation Strategies
1: Sustain fundamental ecological functions
2: Reduce the impact of existing biological stressors
3: Protect forests from severe fire and wind disturbance
4: Maintain or create refugia
5: Maintain and enhance species and structural diversity
6: Increase ecosystem redundancy across the landscape
7: Promote landscape connectivity
8: Enhance genetic diversity
9: Facilitate community adjustments through species
transitions
10: Plan for and respond to disturbance

23. Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
CONCEPT
More detailed
adaptation actions
that can be applied
to a single forest
type or ecosystem

24. Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
CONCEPT
Prescriptive actions
designed for specific
site conditions and
management
objectives

25. Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
CONCEPT
Resistance
(forestall change)

26. Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Sustain fundamental
ecological functions
CONCEPT

27. Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
CONCEPT
Maintain or restore
hydrology

28. Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
CONCEPT
Harvest in winter on
frozen/snow-covered
ground to minimize
disturbance

33. Activity #2
Developing Adaptation
Actions for Forests

34. Least
Projected
Change
Most
Projected
Change
Activity #2
CSIRO (B1) CSIRO (A1B) HAD (A1B) MIROC (A1B) MIROC (A2)
In this activity you will use your silvicultural
expertise to illustrate how climate change and
uncertainty may affect stand-level
management for specific ecosystems or forest
types

35. Activity #2
As a group, select a forest type or ecosystem to work in
1) Create and describe a hypothetical
management situation
– Conditions: Location, site
conditions, species composition,
stand structure, disturbance history
and susceptibility, etc.
– Typical management: Management
goals and objectives, common
practices
1
2
34
5

36. Activity #2
As a group, select a forest type or ecosystem to work in
2) Identify important climate change
considerations
– Anticipated effects on various
forest components
– Characteristics that
increase/reduce vulnerability
3) Identify challenges or
opportunities for meeting
management goals under climate
change
1
2
34
5

37. Maps/data for this section courtesy of R. Neilson and MAPSS Vegetation Modeling Lab
To help think about climate change in your region
Precipitation change (summer and winter)
Temperature change (summer and winter)
Activity #2

38. Activity #2
What actions can be taken to enhance the
ability of the area to adapt to anticipated
changes and meet management goals?
1
2
34
5

39. Activity #2
What actions can be taken to enhance the ability of
the area to adapt to anticipated changes and meet
management goals?
Where are you working and what
are your forest management goals?
Forest:
Location and conditions:
Current management:
What climate change impacts
create challenges or opportunities
for meeting these goals?
What actions would you
recommend to enhance the ability
of forests to adapt?
Adaptation Tactics:
1)
2)
3)

40. Swanston and Janowiak 2012: www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543, Janowiak et al. 2014
Identifying Adaptation Tactics
1. DEFINE area of
interest, management
objectives, and time
frames.
2. ASSESS climate
change impacts and
vulnerabilities for the
area of interest.
3. EVALUATE
management objectives
given projected impacts
and vulnerabilities.
4. IDENTIFY and
implement adaptation
approaches and tactics.
5. MONITOR and
evaluate effectiveness
of implemented
actions.