SlideShare a Scribd company logo
NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENIC
RADIATIVE FORCING
IPCC AR5
Anakha mohan
2014-20-123
Academy Of Climate Change
Education And Research, KAU
Vellanikkara
1
 The intergovernmental panel on climate change
 International body for assessing the science related to
climate change
 Was set up in 1988
 By the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
IPCC
2
The IPCC's headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland
3
 Working Group I assesses the scientific aspects of the climate system and
climate change ·
 Working Group II addresses the vulnerability of socio- economic and natural
systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of climate
change, and options for adapting to it·
 Working Group III assesses options for limiting greenhouse gas emissions
and otherwise mitigating climate change
4
Radiative forcing or climate forcing is defined as the difference of
insolation (sunlight) absorbed by the Earth and energy radiated back
to space.
Anthropogenic forcing is a change in the Earth’s energy
balance due to human activities.
Natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing
5
 The planet was in radiative balance with space before the industrial
revolution. Human activities have altered this balance. The net impact of
any perturbation can be quantified via a net power input into the planet,
This is its radiative forcing.
 Positive forcing warm the planet
 AR5 recognises this for the first time, and designates the total forcing
including these effects as the effective radiative forcing.
Cont’d
6
 Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic
emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate
changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural system
 Which driven atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and
nitrous oxide to levels that are unprecedented in at least the last 800,000
years, leading to an uptake of energy by the climate system.
 Radiative forcing quantifies the perturbation of energy into the Earth
system caused by these drivers. Radiative forcing larger than zero lead to
a near-surface warming, and radiative forcing smaller than zero lead to a
cooling.
Cont’d
7
 Atmospheric concentrations of GHGs are at levels that are unprecedented
in at least 800,000 years. Concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane
(CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have all shown large increases since 1750
(40%, 150% and 20%, respectively)
Cont’d
8
9
For example,
10
Natural forcing only would have cooled
11
Anthropogenic with natural forcing fit
12
 The radiative forcing from aerosols, which includes cloud adjustments, is
better understood and indicates a weaker cooling effect than in AR4. The
aerosol radiative forcing over 1750–2011 is estimated as –0.9 W/m2
(medium confidence).
 There is high confidence that the global mean total aerosol radiative forcing
has counteracted a substantial portion of radiative forcing from well mixed
GHGs. Aerosols continue to contribute the largest uncertainty to the total
radiative forcing estimate.
The radiative forcing from aerosols
About 5 out of 10 chance About 8 out of 10 chance
13
Human activities affecting emission drivers
 About half of the cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions between 1750 and
2011 have occurred in the last 40 years (high confidence).
 About 40% of these anthropogenic CO2 emissions have remained in the
atmosphere since 1750. The rest was removed from the atmosphere by sinks,
and stored in natural carbon cycle reservoirs
 Total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions have continued to increase over
1970 to 2010 with larger absolute increases between 2000 and 2010 (high
confidence)
14
15
16
 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes
contributed about 78% to the total GHG emission increase between 1970
and 2010, with a contribution of similar percentage over the 2000–2010
period (high confidence).
 Total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions have increased by about 10
GtCO2 between 2000 and 2010. This increase directly came from the
energy (47%), industry (30%), transport (11%) and building (3%) sectors
(medium confidence). Accounting for indirect emissions raises the
contributions by the building and industry sectors (high confidence).
Cont’d
17
 Globally, economic and population growth continue to be the most
important drivers of increases in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel
combustion. The contribution of population growth between 2000
and 2010 remained roughly identical to that of the previous three
decades, while the contribution of economic growth has risen
sharply (high confidence)
Cont’d
18
19
 Estimated present-day radiative forcing is higher than in AR4 due to:
larger estimates of black carbon forcing, smaller estimate of aerosol
cloud-mediated cooling effect, and increased greenhouse gases since
2007.
 CO2 overwhelms other forcing, in most future scenarios.
 Natural forcing only would have cooled, Anthropogenic with natural
forcing fit to current observations
In a nut shell
20
REFERENCE
IPCC fourth assessment report; WGII; chapter 2; Changes in
Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing; page no. 131-
217
IPCC Fifth assessment report; WGII; chapter 8; Anthropogenic and
Natural Radiative Forcing; page no.661-731
IPCC Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report page no.39-48
21
Think now and decide here….
Thankyou22

More Related Content

What's hot

UNFCCC
UNFCCCUNFCCC
UNFCCC
Shivam Sood
 
Climate System
Climate SystemClimate System
Climate SystemEd Stermer
 
Climate Change and Adaptation: Where do we go from here?
Climate Change and Adaptation: Where do we go from here?Climate Change and Adaptation: Where do we go from here?
Climate Change and Adaptation: Where do we go from here?
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Energy budget of earth
Energy budget of earthEnergy budget of earth
Energy budget of earth
DCRUST University
 
INtroduction to IPCC
INtroduction to IPCCINtroduction to IPCC
INtroduction to IPCC
ipcc-media
 
Energy production and climate change
Energy production and climate changeEnergy production and climate change
Energy production and climate change
Atif Nauman
 
Indicators of climate change
Indicators of climate changeIndicators of climate change
Indicators of climate change
Prof. A.Balasubramanian
 
Mitigation of Climate Change
Mitigation of Climate ChangeMitigation of Climate Change
Mitigation of Climate Change
ipcc-media
 
Climate change & global warming consequenses
Climate change & global warming consequensesClimate change & global warming consequenses
Climate change & global warming consequenses
Vreshgouda Vru
 
protecting health from climate change
protecting health from climate changeprotecting health from climate change
protecting health from climate change
Shanthosh Priyan
 
Redd+
Redd+Redd+
Global Climate change & its impact on Indian Agriculture.
Global Climate change & its impact on Indian Agriculture.Global Climate change & its impact on Indian Agriculture.
Global Climate change & its impact on Indian Agriculture.
Soumyashree Panigrahi
 
Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse Gases
Greenhouse GasesOhMiss
 
Ipcc initiative in climate change mitigation
Ipcc initiative in climate change mitigationIpcc initiative in climate change mitigation
Ipcc initiative in climate change mitigation
Parvati Tamrakar
 
Climate change
Climate change  Climate change
Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change
Vulnerability and adaptation to climate changeVulnerability and adaptation to climate change
Vulnerability and adaptation to climate changeSai Bhaskar Reddy Nakka
 
Effects of Climate change on water resources
Effects of Climate change on water resourcesEffects of Climate change on water resources
Effects of Climate change on water resources
NjorBenedict1
 

What's hot (20)

UNFCCC
UNFCCCUNFCCC
UNFCCC
 
Climate change and vulnerability
Climate change and vulnerabilityClimate change and vulnerability
Climate change and vulnerability
 
Climate System
Climate SystemClimate System
Climate System
 
Climate Change and Adaptation: Where do we go from here?
Climate Change and Adaptation: Where do we go from here?Climate Change and Adaptation: Where do we go from here?
Climate Change and Adaptation: Where do we go from here?
 
Energy budget of earth
Energy budget of earthEnergy budget of earth
Energy budget of earth
 
INtroduction to IPCC
INtroduction to IPCCINtroduction to IPCC
INtroduction to IPCC
 
Energy production and climate change
Energy production and climate changeEnergy production and climate change
Energy production and climate change
 
Indicators of climate change
Indicators of climate changeIndicators of climate change
Indicators of climate change
 
Mitigation of Climate Change
Mitigation of Climate ChangeMitigation of Climate Change
Mitigation of Climate Change
 
Climate change & global warming consequenses
Climate change & global warming consequensesClimate change & global warming consequenses
Climate change & global warming consequenses
 
protecting health from climate change
protecting health from climate changeprotecting health from climate change
protecting health from climate change
 
Redd+
Redd+Redd+
Redd+
 
Global Climate change & its impact on Indian Agriculture.
Global Climate change & its impact on Indian Agriculture.Global Climate change & its impact on Indian Agriculture.
Global Climate change & its impact on Indian Agriculture.
 
Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse Gases
Greenhouse Gases
 
Climate Change UNFCCC
Climate Change UNFCCCClimate Change UNFCCC
Climate Change UNFCCC
 
Ipcc initiative in climate change mitigation
Ipcc initiative in climate change mitigationIpcc initiative in climate change mitigation
Ipcc initiative in climate change mitigation
 
Climate change
Climate change  Climate change
Climate change
 
Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change
Vulnerability and adaptation to climate changeVulnerability and adaptation to climate change
Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change
 
Overview of climate variability and climate change in GMS
Overview of climate variability and climate change in GMSOverview of climate variability and climate change in GMS
Overview of climate variability and climate change in GMS
 
Effects of Climate change on water resources
Effects of Climate change on water resourcesEffects of Climate change on water resources
Effects of Climate change on water resources
 

Similar to NATURAL AND ANTHAOPOGENIC RADIATIVE FORCING BASED ON IPCC AR5

GLOBAL WARMING CAUSES FLOOD & DROUGHT
GLOBAL WARMING CAUSES FLOOD & DROUGHTGLOBAL WARMING CAUSES FLOOD & DROUGHT
GLOBAL WARMING CAUSES FLOOD & DROUGHT
Sami Asokan
 
Climate Change Paper - CO2 or Crop Irrigation?
Climate Change Paper - CO2 or Crop Irrigation?Climate Change Paper - CO2 or Crop Irrigation?
Climate Change Paper - CO2 or Crop Irrigation?
Keith_Shotbolt
 
CEI Email 6.5.03 (c)
CEI Email 6.5.03 (c)CEI Email 6.5.03 (c)
CEI Email 6.5.03 (c)
Obama White House
 
Environment ppt
Environment pptEnvironment ppt
Environment ppt
Avish Arora
 
Global Environmental Issues- Challenges in Cities
Global Environmental Issues- Challenges in CitiesGlobal Environmental Issues- Challenges in Cities
Global Environmental Issues- Challenges in Cities
Neha Bansal
 
'Drowning Earth' - Magazine-style report on Climate Change. - Data Visualization
'Drowning Earth' - Magazine-style report on Climate Change. - Data Visualization'Drowning Earth' - Magazine-style report on Climate Change. - Data Visualization
'Drowning Earth' - Magazine-style report on Climate Change. - Data Visualization
Darshan Gorasiya
 
US Climate Assessment 2013 by Images
US Climate Assessment 2013 by ImagesUS Climate Assessment 2013 by Images
US Climate Assessment 2013 by ImagesPeter Carter
 
Lesson 4 Attribution of climate change
Lesson 4   Attribution of climate changeLesson 4   Attribution of climate change
Lesson 4 Attribution of climate change
Dr. P.B.Dharmasena
 
Anthropogenic Contributions to the Atmospheric CO2 Levels and Annual Share of...
Anthropogenic Contributions to the Atmospheric CO2 Levels and Annual Share of...Anthropogenic Contributions to the Atmospheric CO2 Levels and Annual Share of...
Anthropogenic Contributions to the Atmospheric CO2 Levels and Annual Share of...
Premier Publishers
 
2019- World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency
2019- World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency2019- World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency
2019- World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency
Energy for One World
 
Climate change and electricity generation
Climate change and electricity generationClimate change and electricity generation
Climate change and electricity generation
RCREEE
 
A briefing from the Poznan Climate Change Conference
A briefing from the Poznan Climate Change ConferenceA briefing from the Poznan Climate Change Conference
A briefing from the Poznan Climate Change ConferenceLeonardo ENERGY
 
30 years of IPCC Science- Introductory remarks by John Mitchell
30 years of IPCC Science- Introductory remarks by John Mitchell30 years of IPCC Science- Introductory remarks by John Mitchell
30 years of IPCC Science- Introductory remarks by John Mitchell
ipcc-media
 
Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy
Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and PolicyEnergy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy
Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy
bis_foresight
 
Introduction to Climate Science
Introduction to Climate ScienceIntroduction to Climate Science
Introduction to Climate Science
ipcc-media
 

Similar to NATURAL AND ANTHAOPOGENIC RADIATIVE FORCING BASED ON IPCC AR5 (20)

Stern Review Executive Summary
Stern Review   Executive SummaryStern Review   Executive Summary
Stern Review Executive Summary
 
GLOBAL WARMING CAUSES FLOOD & DROUGHT
GLOBAL WARMING CAUSES FLOOD & DROUGHTGLOBAL WARMING CAUSES FLOOD & DROUGHT
GLOBAL WARMING CAUSES FLOOD & DROUGHT
 
Climate Change Paper - CO2 or Crop Irrigation?
Climate Change Paper - CO2 or Crop Irrigation?Climate Change Paper - CO2 or Crop Irrigation?
Climate Change Paper - CO2 or Crop Irrigation?
 
CEI Email 6.5.03 (c)
CEI Email 6.5.03 (c)CEI Email 6.5.03 (c)
CEI Email 6.5.03 (c)
 
Environment ppt
Environment pptEnvironment ppt
Environment ppt
 
Anexo informe Carbon Traning english version
Anexo informe Carbon Traning english versionAnexo informe Carbon Traning english version
Anexo informe Carbon Traning english version
 
Global Environmental Issues- Challenges in Cities
Global Environmental Issues- Challenges in CitiesGlobal Environmental Issues- Challenges in Cities
Global Environmental Issues- Challenges in Cities
 
M38 presentation
M38 presentationM38 presentation
M38 presentation
 
'Drowning Earth' - Magazine-style report on Climate Change. - Data Visualization
'Drowning Earth' - Magazine-style report on Climate Change. - Data Visualization'Drowning Earth' - Magazine-style report on Climate Change. - Data Visualization
'Drowning Earth' - Magazine-style report on Climate Change. - Data Visualization
 
Fact_Sheets-English
Fact_Sheets-EnglishFact_Sheets-English
Fact_Sheets-English
 
Why I Choose Nuke Power
Why I Choose Nuke PowerWhy I Choose Nuke Power
Why I Choose Nuke Power
 
US Climate Assessment 2013 by Images
US Climate Assessment 2013 by ImagesUS Climate Assessment 2013 by Images
US Climate Assessment 2013 by Images
 
Lesson 4 Attribution of climate change
Lesson 4   Attribution of climate changeLesson 4   Attribution of climate change
Lesson 4 Attribution of climate change
 
Anthropogenic Contributions to the Atmospheric CO2 Levels and Annual Share of...
Anthropogenic Contributions to the Atmospheric CO2 Levels and Annual Share of...Anthropogenic Contributions to the Atmospheric CO2 Levels and Annual Share of...
Anthropogenic Contributions to the Atmospheric CO2 Levels and Annual Share of...
 
2019- World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency
2019- World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency2019- World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency
2019- World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency
 
Climate change and electricity generation
Climate change and electricity generationClimate change and electricity generation
Climate change and electricity generation
 
A briefing from the Poznan Climate Change Conference
A briefing from the Poznan Climate Change ConferenceA briefing from the Poznan Climate Change Conference
A briefing from the Poznan Climate Change Conference
 
30 years of IPCC Science- Introductory remarks by John Mitchell
30 years of IPCC Science- Introductory remarks by John Mitchell30 years of IPCC Science- Introductory remarks by John Mitchell
30 years of IPCC Science- Introductory remarks by John Mitchell
 
Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy
Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and PolicyEnergy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy
Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy
 
Introduction to Climate Science
Introduction to Climate ScienceIntroduction to Climate Science
Introduction to Climate Science
 

Recently uploaded

Operation Blue Star - Saka Neela Tara
Operation Blue Star   -  Saka Neela TaraOperation Blue Star   -  Saka Neela Tara
Operation Blue Star - Saka Neela Tara
Balvir Singh
 
How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...
How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...
How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...
Jisc
 
Supporting (UKRI) OA monographs at Salford.pptx
Supporting (UKRI) OA monographs at Salford.pptxSupporting (UKRI) OA monographs at Salford.pptx
Supporting (UKRI) OA monographs at Salford.pptx
Jisc
 
Acetabularia Information For Class 9 .docx
Acetabularia Information For Class 9  .docxAcetabularia Information For Class 9  .docx
Acetabularia Information For Class 9 .docx
vaibhavrinwa19
 
The Challenger.pdf DNHS Official Publication
The Challenger.pdf DNHS Official PublicationThe Challenger.pdf DNHS Official Publication
The Challenger.pdf DNHS Official Publication
Delapenabediema
 
Language Across the Curriculm LAC B.Ed.
Language Across the  Curriculm LAC B.Ed.Language Across the  Curriculm LAC B.Ed.
Language Across the Curriculm LAC B.Ed.
Atul Kumar Singh
 
The geography of Taylor Swift - some ideas
The geography of Taylor Swift - some ideasThe geography of Taylor Swift - some ideas
The geography of Taylor Swift - some ideas
GeoBlogs
 
June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...
June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...
June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...
Levi Shapiro
 
Honest Reviews of Tim Han LMA Course Program.pptx
Honest Reviews of Tim Han LMA Course Program.pptxHonest Reviews of Tim Han LMA Course Program.pptx
Honest Reviews of Tim Han LMA Course Program.pptx
timhan337
 
Polish students' mobility in the Czech Republic
Polish students' mobility in the Czech RepublicPolish students' mobility in the Czech Republic
Polish students' mobility in the Czech Republic
Anna Sz.
 
Thesis Statement for students diagnonsed withADHD.ppt
Thesis Statement for students diagnonsed withADHD.pptThesis Statement for students diagnonsed withADHD.ppt
Thesis Statement for students diagnonsed withADHD.ppt
EverAndrsGuerraGuerr
 
Digital Tools and AI for Teaching Learning and Research
Digital Tools and AI for Teaching Learning and ResearchDigital Tools and AI for Teaching Learning and Research
Digital Tools and AI for Teaching Learning and Research
Vikramjit Singh
 
The basics of sentences session 5pptx.pptx
The basics of sentences session 5pptx.pptxThe basics of sentences session 5pptx.pptx
The basics of sentences session 5pptx.pptx
heathfieldcps1
 
Unit 8 - Information and Communication Technology (Paper I).pdf
Unit 8 - Information and Communication Technology (Paper I).pdfUnit 8 - Information and Communication Technology (Paper I).pdf
Unit 8 - Information and Communication Technology (Paper I).pdf
Thiyagu K
 
1.4 modern child centered education - mahatma gandhi-2.pptx
1.4 modern child centered education - mahatma gandhi-2.pptx1.4 modern child centered education - mahatma gandhi-2.pptx
1.4 modern child centered education - mahatma gandhi-2.pptx
JosvitaDsouza2
 
Additional Benefits for Employee Website.pdf
Additional Benefits for Employee Website.pdfAdditional Benefits for Employee Website.pdf
Additional Benefits for Employee Website.pdf
joachimlavalley1
 
Francesca Gottschalk - How can education support child empowerment.pptx
Francesca Gottschalk - How can education support child empowerment.pptxFrancesca Gottschalk - How can education support child empowerment.pptx
Francesca Gottschalk - How can education support child empowerment.pptx
EduSkills OECD
 
The Roman Empire A Historical Colossus.pdf
The Roman Empire A Historical Colossus.pdfThe Roman Empire A Historical Colossus.pdf
The Roman Empire A Historical Colossus.pdf
kaushalkr1407
 
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17
Celine George
 
CLASS 11 CBSE B.St Project AIDS TO TRADE - INSURANCE
CLASS 11 CBSE B.St Project AIDS TO TRADE - INSURANCECLASS 11 CBSE B.St Project AIDS TO TRADE - INSURANCE
CLASS 11 CBSE B.St Project AIDS TO TRADE - INSURANCE
BhavyaRajput3
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Operation Blue Star - Saka Neela Tara
Operation Blue Star   -  Saka Neela TaraOperation Blue Star   -  Saka Neela Tara
Operation Blue Star - Saka Neela Tara
 
How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...
How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...
How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...
 
Supporting (UKRI) OA monographs at Salford.pptx
Supporting (UKRI) OA monographs at Salford.pptxSupporting (UKRI) OA monographs at Salford.pptx
Supporting (UKRI) OA monographs at Salford.pptx
 
Acetabularia Information For Class 9 .docx
Acetabularia Information For Class 9  .docxAcetabularia Information For Class 9  .docx
Acetabularia Information For Class 9 .docx
 
The Challenger.pdf DNHS Official Publication
The Challenger.pdf DNHS Official PublicationThe Challenger.pdf DNHS Official Publication
The Challenger.pdf DNHS Official Publication
 
Language Across the Curriculm LAC B.Ed.
Language Across the  Curriculm LAC B.Ed.Language Across the  Curriculm LAC B.Ed.
Language Across the Curriculm LAC B.Ed.
 
The geography of Taylor Swift - some ideas
The geography of Taylor Swift - some ideasThe geography of Taylor Swift - some ideas
The geography of Taylor Swift - some ideas
 
June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...
June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...
June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...
 
Honest Reviews of Tim Han LMA Course Program.pptx
Honest Reviews of Tim Han LMA Course Program.pptxHonest Reviews of Tim Han LMA Course Program.pptx
Honest Reviews of Tim Han LMA Course Program.pptx
 
Polish students' mobility in the Czech Republic
Polish students' mobility in the Czech RepublicPolish students' mobility in the Czech Republic
Polish students' mobility in the Czech Republic
 
Thesis Statement for students diagnonsed withADHD.ppt
Thesis Statement for students diagnonsed withADHD.pptThesis Statement for students diagnonsed withADHD.ppt
Thesis Statement for students diagnonsed withADHD.ppt
 
Digital Tools and AI for Teaching Learning and Research
Digital Tools and AI for Teaching Learning and ResearchDigital Tools and AI for Teaching Learning and Research
Digital Tools and AI for Teaching Learning and Research
 
The basics of sentences session 5pptx.pptx
The basics of sentences session 5pptx.pptxThe basics of sentences session 5pptx.pptx
The basics of sentences session 5pptx.pptx
 
Unit 8 - Information and Communication Technology (Paper I).pdf
Unit 8 - Information and Communication Technology (Paper I).pdfUnit 8 - Information and Communication Technology (Paper I).pdf
Unit 8 - Information and Communication Technology (Paper I).pdf
 
1.4 modern child centered education - mahatma gandhi-2.pptx
1.4 modern child centered education - mahatma gandhi-2.pptx1.4 modern child centered education - mahatma gandhi-2.pptx
1.4 modern child centered education - mahatma gandhi-2.pptx
 
Additional Benefits for Employee Website.pdf
Additional Benefits for Employee Website.pdfAdditional Benefits for Employee Website.pdf
Additional Benefits for Employee Website.pdf
 
Francesca Gottschalk - How can education support child empowerment.pptx
Francesca Gottschalk - How can education support child empowerment.pptxFrancesca Gottschalk - How can education support child empowerment.pptx
Francesca Gottschalk - How can education support child empowerment.pptx
 
The Roman Empire A Historical Colossus.pdf
The Roman Empire A Historical Colossus.pdfThe Roman Empire A Historical Colossus.pdf
The Roman Empire A Historical Colossus.pdf
 
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17
 
CLASS 11 CBSE B.St Project AIDS TO TRADE - INSURANCE
CLASS 11 CBSE B.St Project AIDS TO TRADE - INSURANCECLASS 11 CBSE B.St Project AIDS TO TRADE - INSURANCE
CLASS 11 CBSE B.St Project AIDS TO TRADE - INSURANCE
 

NATURAL AND ANTHAOPOGENIC RADIATIVE FORCING BASED ON IPCC AR5

  • 1. NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENIC RADIATIVE FORCING IPCC AR5 Anakha mohan 2014-20-123 Academy Of Climate Change Education And Research, KAU Vellanikkara 1
  • 2.  The intergovernmental panel on climate change  International body for assessing the science related to climate change  Was set up in 1988  By the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) IPCC 2
  • 3. The IPCC's headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland 3
  • 4.  Working Group I assesses the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change ·  Working Group II addresses the vulnerability of socio- economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of climate change, and options for adapting to it·  Working Group III assesses options for limiting greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating climate change 4
  • 5. Radiative forcing or climate forcing is defined as the difference of insolation (sunlight) absorbed by the Earth and energy radiated back to space. Anthropogenic forcing is a change in the Earth’s energy balance due to human activities. Natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing 5
  • 6.  The planet was in radiative balance with space before the industrial revolution. Human activities have altered this balance. The net impact of any perturbation can be quantified via a net power input into the planet, This is its radiative forcing.  Positive forcing warm the planet  AR5 recognises this for the first time, and designates the total forcing including these effects as the effective radiative forcing. Cont’d 6
  • 7.  Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural system  Which driven atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide to levels that are unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years, leading to an uptake of energy by the climate system.  Radiative forcing quantifies the perturbation of energy into the Earth system caused by these drivers. Radiative forcing larger than zero lead to a near-surface warming, and radiative forcing smaller than zero lead to a cooling. Cont’d 7
  • 8.  Atmospheric concentrations of GHGs are at levels that are unprecedented in at least 800,000 years. Concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have all shown large increases since 1750 (40%, 150% and 20%, respectively) Cont’d 8
  • 10. 10
  • 11. Natural forcing only would have cooled 11
  • 12. Anthropogenic with natural forcing fit 12
  • 13.  The radiative forcing from aerosols, which includes cloud adjustments, is better understood and indicates a weaker cooling effect than in AR4. The aerosol radiative forcing over 1750–2011 is estimated as –0.9 W/m2 (medium confidence).  There is high confidence that the global mean total aerosol radiative forcing has counteracted a substantial portion of radiative forcing from well mixed GHGs. Aerosols continue to contribute the largest uncertainty to the total radiative forcing estimate. The radiative forcing from aerosols About 5 out of 10 chance About 8 out of 10 chance 13
  • 14. Human activities affecting emission drivers  About half of the cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions between 1750 and 2011 have occurred in the last 40 years (high confidence).  About 40% of these anthropogenic CO2 emissions have remained in the atmosphere since 1750. The rest was removed from the atmosphere by sinks, and stored in natural carbon cycle reservoirs  Total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions have continued to increase over 1970 to 2010 with larger absolute increases between 2000 and 2010 (high confidence) 14
  • 15. 15
  • 16. 16
  • 17.  CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes contributed about 78% to the total GHG emission increase between 1970 and 2010, with a contribution of similar percentage over the 2000–2010 period (high confidence).  Total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions have increased by about 10 GtCO2 between 2000 and 2010. This increase directly came from the energy (47%), industry (30%), transport (11%) and building (3%) sectors (medium confidence). Accounting for indirect emissions raises the contributions by the building and industry sectors (high confidence). Cont’d 17
  • 18.  Globally, economic and population growth continue to be the most important drivers of increases in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The contribution of population growth between 2000 and 2010 remained roughly identical to that of the previous three decades, while the contribution of economic growth has risen sharply (high confidence) Cont’d 18
  • 19. 19
  • 20.  Estimated present-day radiative forcing is higher than in AR4 due to: larger estimates of black carbon forcing, smaller estimate of aerosol cloud-mediated cooling effect, and increased greenhouse gases since 2007.  CO2 overwhelms other forcing, in most future scenarios.  Natural forcing only would have cooled, Anthropogenic with natural forcing fit to current observations In a nut shell 20
  • 21. REFERENCE IPCC fourth assessment report; WGII; chapter 2; Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing; page no. 131- 217 IPCC Fifth assessment report; WGII; chapter 8; Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing; page no.661-731 IPCC Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report page no.39-48 21
  • 22. Think now and decide here…. Thankyou22

Editor's Notes

  1. to provide policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation.
  2. 40% from natural sources Decaying vegetation, marsh gas. Agriculture, especially rice paddies with anaerobic bacteria. Ruminants (cattle and sheep) – you don’t want to know where it comes from! 500L cow-1 day-1 Termites (same chemistry)
  3. Radiative forcing from aerosols has two competing components: a dominant cooling effect from most aerosols and their cloud adjustments and a partially offsetting warming contribution from black carbon absorption of solar radiation Changes in solar irradiance and volcanic aerosols cause natural radiative forcing. The radiative forcing from stratospheric volcanic aerosols can have a large cooling effect on the climate system for some years after major volcanic eruptions. Changes in total solar irradiance are calculated to have contributed only around 2% of the total radiative forcing in 2011, relative to 1750.
  4. . Cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 2040 ± 310 GtCO2 were added to the atmosphere between 1750 and 2011. Since 1970, cumulative CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, cement production and flaring have tripled, and cumulative CO2 emissions from forestry and other land use21(FOLU)22 have increased by about 40% (Figure 1.5)23. In 2011, annual CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, cement production and flaring were 34.8 ± 2.9 GtCO2/yr. For 2002–2011, average annual emissions from FOLU were 3.3 ± 2.9 GtCO2/yr.
  5. | Annual global anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (gigatonne of CO2-equivalent per year, GtCO2/yr) from fossil fuel combustion, cement production and flaring, and forestry and other land use (FOLU), 1750–2011. Cumulative emissions and their uncertainties are shown as bars and whiskers, respectively, on the right-hand side. The global effects of the accumulation of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are shown in Figure 1.3. Greenhouse gas emission data from 1970 to 2010 are shown in Figure 1.6. {modified from WGI Figure TS.4 and WGIII Figure TS.2}
  6. Total annual anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (gigatonne of CO2-equivalent per year, GtCO2-eq/yr) for the period 1970 to 2010, by gases: CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes; CO2 from Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU); methane (CH4); nitrous oxide (N2O); fluorinated gases covered under the Kyoto Protocol (F-gases). Right hand side shows 2010 emissions, using alternatively CO2-equivalent emission weightings based on IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR) and AR5 values. Unless otherwise stated, CO2-equivalent emissions in this report include the basket of Kyoto gases (CO2, CH4, N2O as well as F-gases) calculated based on 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP100) values from the SAR (see Glossary). Using the most recent GWP100 values from the AR5 (right-hand bars) would result in higher total annual GHG emissions (52 GtCO2-eq/yr) from an increased contribution of methane, but does not change the long-term trend significantly. Other metric choices would change the contributions of different gases (see Box 3.2). The 2010 values are shown again broken down into their components with the associated uncertainties (90% confidence interval) indicated by the error bars. Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion are known with an 8% uncertainty margin (90% confidence interval). There are very large uncertainties (of the order of ±50%) attached to the CO2 emissions from FOLU. Uncertainty about the global emissions of CH4, N2O and the F-gases has been estimated at 20%, 60% and 20%, respectively. 2010 was the most recent year for which emission statistics on all gases as well as assessments of uncertainties were essentially complete at the time of data cut off for this report. The uncertainty estimates only account for uncertainty in emissions, not in the GWPs (as given in WGI 8.7). {WGIII Figure SPM.1}
  7. Total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (gigatonne of CO2- equivalent per year, GtCO2-eq/yr) from economic sectors in 2010. The circle shows the shares of direct GHG emissions (in % of total anthropogenic GHG emissions) from five economic sectors in 2010. The pull-out shows how shares of indirect CO2 emissions (in % of total anthropogenic GHG emissions) from electricity and heat production are attributed to sectors of final energy use. ‘Other energy’ refers to all GHG emission sources in the energy sector as defined in WGIII Annex II, other than electricity and heat production {WGIII Annex II.9.1}. The emission data on agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) includes land-based CO2 emissions from forest fires, peat fires and peat decay that approximate to net CO2 flux from the sub-sectors of forestry and other land use (FOLU) as described in Chapter 11 of the WGIII report. Emissions are converted into CO2-equivalents based on 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP100), taken from the IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR). Sector definitions are provided in WGIII Annex II.9. {WGIII Figure SPM.2}