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Adapting marine fisheries
Johann Bell
Vulnerability of marine fisheries
Percentagechange
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
-75
-100
2050 (high emissions scenario)
Source: FAO (2018)
ChangeinSSToC
Causes of vulnerability
Source: Ganachaud et al. (2011)
• Increases in sea surface temperature
2100
(high emissions)
Causes of vulnerability
• Increased stratification of the water column
• Nutrients support the
food web for tuna
Source: Le Borgne et al. (2011)
Why is stratification important?
Key impacts of climate change
• Reduced exchange between
deep, nutrient-rich water and
surface waters
• Reduced primary production
fisheries production
Source: Le Borgne et al. (2011)
Present Future
Global assessment for marine fisheries
http://www.fao.org/3/i9705en/i9705en.pdf
Case study
Industrial tuna fisheries in the
Pacific Island region
Source: Williams et al. (2018)
Skipjack tuna
➢ 64% of catch
➢ 1,624,162 mt
Yellowfin tuna
➢ 26% of catch
➢ 670,890 mt
.
Bigeye tuna
➢ 5% of catch
➢ 126,929 mt
.
Albacore
➢ 5% of catch
➢ 117,969 mt
.
Tuna resources
Total catch 2,539,950 mt (2017) WCPO
• 60% caught in EEZs of Pacific Island countries
Juveniles
Juveniles
1,812,474 mt (2017) 240,387 mt (2017)
151,232 mt (2017)
Williams, Terawasi and Reid 2017
Purse seine
Pole & line
Longline
Fisheries & commodities (WCPO)
PNA members
Other countries
Fish processing
Transhipping
Transhipping
(minor)
PALAU
Catch: 7,094 Mt
Gov’t revenue: ~13%
FSM
Catch: 186,048 Mt
Gov’t revenue: 47%
MARSHALL Is
Catch: 58,620 Mt
Gov’t revenue: 45%
COOK Is
Catch: 19,957 Mt
Catch & contribution to government revenue
SOLOMON Is
Catch: 136,694 Mt
Gov’t revenue: 10%
VANUATU
Catch: 8,438 Mt
FIJI
Catch: 7,362 Mt
Source: Pacific Community, Forum Fisheries Agency and Conservation International
Six countries receive >45%
of all government revenue
from tuna fishing licence fees
Catch data are 5-year averages (2013-
2017)
Gov’t revenue data are for 2016
Lehodey et al. (1997)
• El Nino Southern Oscillation
Effects of climatic variability
Adaptation to climatic variability
• Vessel Day Scheme
Source of map: C. Wabnitz
Source: Aqorau et al. (2018)
Parties to the Nauru Agreement
Equator
• 95% of catch from Pacific Islands
• Cap and trade scheme
• $465 million (2016)
• Preliminary modelling for skipjack tuna
2005
Mt/km2
Mt/km2
2050
Source: Senina et al. (2018)
Effects of climate change
Implications for economies
High
High seas
2050
• 15% of tuna biomass
moves from EEZs to
high seas
• Potential loss of
>$60 million p.a.
Reduce uncertainty in climate projections
? ?
?
?
?
Identify stock structure
• Separate climate modelling
for each stock
➢ Critical to transboundary
adaptation because it will
identify stakeholders in
each stock
A new paradigm and early warning system
Sound understanding
of stock structure and
responses of stocks
to climate change
New paradigm
• Altered management arrangements
(PNA?)
EWS
• Identify which countries are likely to lose
licence revenue due to movement of tuna
to high seas
• Develop strategies to maintain jurisdiction
over tuna
• Enable countries in west to assess
whether they will have sufficient tuna to
supply their canneries
• Identify practical adaptations to reduce
risks and capitalize on opportunities
Engaging the private sector
275 Purse-seine vessels
>3000 longline vessels
• Increase measurements of sea
surface temperature and currents
to inform global climate models
• Record responses of micronekton
to climate change
Photo: Steve Beverly
Photo: Bruno Leroy
• Harnessing more of the transshipping trade
Possible opportunities
Photo: Johann Bell
Photo: Johann Bell
Thank you
Photo: Peter Sharples

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7.3.5 A system approach to the integration of the agriculture sector in the NAP
 
7.3.4 A system approach to the integration of the agriculture sector in the NAP
7.3.4 A system approach to the integration of the agriculture sector in the NAP7.3.4 A system approach to the integration of the agriculture sector in the NAP
7.3.4 A system approach to the integration of the agriculture sector in the NAP
 
7.3.3 A system approach to the integration of the agriculture sector in the NAP
7.3.3 A system approach to the integration of the agriculture sector in the NAP7.3.3 A system approach to the integration of the agriculture sector in the NAP
7.3.3 A system approach to the integration of the agriculture sector in the NAP
 
7.3.2 A system approach to the integration of the agriculture sector in the NAP
7.3.2 A system approach to the integration of the agriculture sector in the NAP7.3.2 A system approach to the integration of the agriculture sector in the NAP
7.3.2 A system approach to the integration of the agriculture sector in the NAP
 

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6.2 Marine fisheries focus on tuna

  • 2. Vulnerability of marine fisheries Percentagechange 100 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 -75 -100 2050 (high emissions scenario) Source: FAO (2018)
  • 3. ChangeinSSToC Causes of vulnerability Source: Ganachaud et al. (2011) • Increases in sea surface temperature 2100 (high emissions)
  • 4. Causes of vulnerability • Increased stratification of the water column
  • 5. • Nutrients support the food web for tuna Source: Le Borgne et al. (2011) Why is stratification important?
  • 6. Key impacts of climate change • Reduced exchange between deep, nutrient-rich water and surface waters • Reduced primary production fisheries production Source: Le Borgne et al. (2011) Present Future
  • 7. Global assessment for marine fisheries http://www.fao.org/3/i9705en/i9705en.pdf
  • 8. Case study Industrial tuna fisheries in the Pacific Island region
  • 9. Source: Williams et al. (2018) Skipjack tuna ➢ 64% of catch ➢ 1,624,162 mt Yellowfin tuna ➢ 26% of catch ➢ 670,890 mt . Bigeye tuna ➢ 5% of catch ➢ 126,929 mt . Albacore ➢ 5% of catch ➢ 117,969 mt . Tuna resources Total catch 2,539,950 mt (2017) WCPO • 60% caught in EEZs of Pacific Island countries
  • 10. Juveniles Juveniles 1,812,474 mt (2017) 240,387 mt (2017) 151,232 mt (2017) Williams, Terawasi and Reid 2017 Purse seine Pole & line Longline Fisheries & commodities (WCPO)
  • 11. PNA members Other countries Fish processing Transhipping Transhipping (minor) PALAU Catch: 7,094 Mt Gov’t revenue: ~13% FSM Catch: 186,048 Mt Gov’t revenue: 47% MARSHALL Is Catch: 58,620 Mt Gov’t revenue: 45% COOK Is Catch: 19,957 Mt Catch & contribution to government revenue SOLOMON Is Catch: 136,694 Mt Gov’t revenue: 10% VANUATU Catch: 8,438 Mt FIJI Catch: 7,362 Mt Source: Pacific Community, Forum Fisheries Agency and Conservation International Six countries receive >45% of all government revenue from tuna fishing licence fees Catch data are 5-year averages (2013- 2017) Gov’t revenue data are for 2016
  • 12. Lehodey et al. (1997) • El Nino Southern Oscillation Effects of climatic variability
  • 13. Adaptation to climatic variability • Vessel Day Scheme Source of map: C. Wabnitz Source: Aqorau et al. (2018) Parties to the Nauru Agreement Equator • 95% of catch from Pacific Islands • Cap and trade scheme • $465 million (2016)
  • 14. • Preliminary modelling for skipjack tuna 2005 Mt/km2 Mt/km2 2050 Source: Senina et al. (2018) Effects of climate change
  • 15. Implications for economies High High seas 2050 • 15% of tuna biomass moves from EEZs to high seas • Potential loss of >$60 million p.a.
  • 16. Reduce uncertainty in climate projections ? ? ? ? ? Identify stock structure • Separate climate modelling for each stock ➢ Critical to transboundary adaptation because it will identify stakeholders in each stock
  • 17. A new paradigm and early warning system Sound understanding of stock structure and responses of stocks to climate change New paradigm • Altered management arrangements (PNA?) EWS • Identify which countries are likely to lose licence revenue due to movement of tuna to high seas • Develop strategies to maintain jurisdiction over tuna • Enable countries in west to assess whether they will have sufficient tuna to supply their canneries • Identify practical adaptations to reduce risks and capitalize on opportunities
  • 18. Engaging the private sector 275 Purse-seine vessels >3000 longline vessels • Increase measurements of sea surface temperature and currents to inform global climate models • Record responses of micronekton to climate change Photo: Steve Beverly Photo: Bruno Leroy
  • 19. • Harnessing more of the transshipping trade Possible opportunities Photo: Johann Bell Photo: Johann Bell