Oil and Gas companies are facing energy transition with a significant increase in energy demand, but also a shift towards a lower carbon fuel mix. In addition, digitalization is disrupting manifested business models. A new way of business steering and planning is required to cope with these challenges in order to shape a successful strategy for the future.

1. Planning and
Forecasting in Oil & Gas
A BearingPoint Accelerator
Oil and Gas companies are facing the energy transition with a significant increase
in energy demand, but also a shift towards a lower carbon fuel mix. In addition,
digitalization is disrupting manifested business models. A new way of business
steering and planning is required to cope with these challenges in order to shape a
successful strategy for the future.

2. Contents
Market Drivers
Our Approach
Client Benefits
References
Contact
Planning and Forecasting in Oil & Gas | A BearingPoint Accelerator

3. Planning and Forecasting in Oil & Gas | A BearingPoint Accelerator
The value chain with all its upstream and downstream activities in the oil and gas industry is complex and
versatile. This offers many opportunities to optimize and simplify the business model and operational
excellence. The market is currently undergoing substantial change - so it's the perfect time to set up for the
future and align B2C, B2B and refining with good practices of the industry!
Market Drivers
Asset
maintenance
• Conscious and
proactive
budgeting of
maintenance costs
for refining and
terminal assets
with predictive
technology
• Planning of
turnarounds
(forecast accuracy
and minimizing
impacts)
Price / demand &
supply volatility
• Predictive models
to anticipate short
and midterm
volatility (e.g.
crude oil price
changes)
• Flexible scenario
planning for supply
and logistic
operations
Rapid technological
advancements
• Increase level of
harmonization and
automatization
(e.g. implementation
of same system for
businesses and
controlling)
• Focus on content
rather than
technical
boundaries
(replacement of
Excel solutions) and
hence process
acceleration
Performance
improvement
• Process efficiency
and improved
coordination of
refining, logistics
and sales activities
• Precise prediction
of performance
results by
integration of
sub-plans (e.g.
projects, chances
and risks)
Cost reduction
challenge
• Supporting the
business in
optimizing
operational and
head-office cost
planning to stay
competitive (e.g.
refining CO2-cost)
• Enhanced business
steering e.g. ad-hoc
and scenario
analysis
Expansion into
new business
segments
• New business
operating models
need additional
planning
dimensions
(e.g. e-mobility
solutions)
• Definition of a
standard planning
approach across all
business areas (e.g.
volumes and margin
planning)
Trends & Challenges and the respective Planning requirements

4. Planning and Forecasting in Oil & Gas | A BearingPoint Accelerator
BearingPoint is offering a solution for a fully integrated business planning environment through its Planning
Integration Cycle (PIC). The Cycle is designed to connect operational business planning with financial
planning and budgeting across different time horizons, from short-term up to a strategic perspective.
• Business planning with volumes and
margins and its financial aspects
• Operational alignment along the value
chain from refining production, logistics
to B2C and B2B sales
• Free bottom-up forecasting on a
monthly basis (e.g. 24 months)
Operational and Financial
Forecasting Process
1
Projects Demand
Refining Supply
Planning
Integration
Cycle
• Detailed budgeting
• Annual plan including top-down
management targets, energy and
inflation effects, as well as project
planning
• 1 year horizon
2
Annual
Planning & Budgeting
Jan
Dec
• Focus and financial planning of
macro- economic assumptions and
industry trends like energy supply and
demand, energy split, influence of
disrupting technologies as transport
electrification and inflation
• Long-term planning
• 3-10 years horizon
3
Mid-Term and
Strategic Planning
Definition of a firmwide planning standard with process models
System harmonization & tailored tool selection

5. Planning and Forecasting in Oil & Gas | A BearingPoint Accelerator
In several stages, we define a common understanding of the planning terminology across all business and functions
with a holistic approach. The planning meetings are designed to have a different focus and level of detail, but will
converge information, which reduces effort and inaccurateness and supports alignment.
Integration in
Finance Organization
• Alignment with
the existing
processes to
ensure efficiency
and assurance of
a consistent
database
• Use of evolving
technologies and
solutions from the
portfolio
Tools
• Criteria-based
tool selection by
involvement of all
contributors
• Comfortable usage
for business and
controlling with
user experience
• Proof of concept/
prototyping and
implementation
of the planning
solution
Business
Engagement
• Development of
a collaborational
approach that fits
for the business
(refining, logistics,
sales) as well as
controlling
• Coaching in
process and
system usage for
key users in
refining, logistics
and sales in the
role of multipliers
to increase internal
acceptance
Process
Design
• Design of an
integrated sales,
operational and
financial process
including timelines
• Definition of core
activities and
responsibilities of
the planning
processes for
volumes, margins
and financial
materialization
Definition of a
Planning Standard
• Definition and
development of
planning scope,
meetings and
dimensions
• Definition of
planning
methodology
(top-down,
bottom-up,
middle-up)
• Development of
information model
(e.g. planning on
product and station
level in B2C)
Components of the BearingPoint approach
I II III IV V

6. Planning and Forecasting in Oil & Gas | A BearingPoint Accelerator
Individual business needs can be supported by applying the solutions in the BearingPoint portfolio.
</>
$
Integrated planning with a
subsequent focus on
controllers as “business
partners” with state-of-
the-art software solutionsFocus on high
value tasks while
reducing manual
labor
Integrate smart and real-time
monitoring of oil price
developments, volume &
margin deliveries and
reporting tools
Identify, evaluate and
document relevant KPIs to
enable a value based direction
and adjustment of planning lines
Using an agile project
methodology as a reaction to
dynamic and changing business
environments
Incorporate modern
finance strategies into
target businesses
Predictive & cognitive
approaches to enhance
and optimize forecasting
accuracy while focusing
on real performance
drivers
Software
Solution
Robotic Process
Automation
Smart
Reporting
KPI /
Steering
Model
Agile
(Scrum)
Finance
Strategy
Advanced
Analytics

7. Planning and Forecasting in Oil & Gas | A BearingPoint Accelerator
Due to the scaling, optimizing and integration of the processes, a continually increasing benefit for the customer is
achieved in the long term. Both direct and indirect cost advantages are achieved, as well as an optimization of the
processes in planning and forecasting by enabling functionalities as scenario based planning.
Cost Efficiency
Cost efficiency due to reduced
effort in planning and
forecasting and through
increased accuracy and
increased steering capabilities
Business Engagement &
Satisfaction
A holistic planning approach
along the value chain ensures
stable operations and
minimizes disruptions
Effort Reduction
Reduction of complexity
and effort to ensure
time saving
Integrated Planning
Landscape
Full integration of all subplans
facilitates a target
oriented planning process
One single Source of Truth
Accuracy, consistency and
simultaneous processing of
planned figures and data
ensures an effective and honest
workflow
Business Partnering
Enable business partnering to
take over an active role and act
as a mediator between
controller, business units and
management
Scenario Based
Planning
Calculation of scenarios
increases steering possibilities
and identifies risks, chances
and measures to mitigate threats
Elimination of
Excel Plan Books
Reduction of vertical and
horizontal coordination cycles
to increase time efficiency

8. Planning and Forecasting in Oil & Gas | A BearingPoint Accelerator
References
Our client is a multinational oil and gas company with a fully-integrated value chain consisting of upstream as
well as downstream activities. BearingPoint was hired to support a forward looking planning & data project for
downstream.
Challenges
• Planning processes executed in
Excel with very little support from
enterprise systems
• Marginal interaction and no
streamlining of planning
processes
• No clear definition and scoping
for existing planning and
forecasting situations regarding
contents (volumes, margin and
financials ) and subplans (e.g.
demand and project planning)
• Lack of data transparency, clear
accountability across units and
process efficiency
• No standardized process
throughout the different
businesses
Approach
• Analysis of planning processes and contents
to understand complexity and unveil potential
areas for automation and integration of
planning dimensions (high level design concept)
• Design of an integrated planning process for
all downstream businesses in B2C, B2B and
supply and logistics (business blueprint)
• Development of a technical prototype to show
benefits and technical possibilities of the selected
tool for a fit/gap analysis
• Definition of a module based implementation
approach
• Agile approach for implementation, with
continuous improvement and close
collaboration of business and IT resources
• Definition of communication plans and change
management measures
Results
• Integration of all planning sessions
due to an information enriched
planning process
• Made business relevant information
transparent for better decision making
and improved forecast activity
• One single source of truth, eliminated
an opaque, multi-source and diverse
system landscape
• Implementation of a lean business and
process workflow architecture, lead to an
increased level of responsibility, speed and
efficiency

9. Planning and Forecasting in Oil & Gas | A BearingPoint Accelerator
Contact
Stefani Rahmel
Partner
BearingPoint Germany
stefani.rahmel@bearingpoint.com
Dr. Wolfgang Völl
Senior Manager
BearingPoint Germany
wolfgang.voell@bearingpoint.com
About BearingPoint
BearingPoint is an independent management and technology consultancy with
European roots and a global reach. The company operates in three units: Consulting,
Solutions and Ventures. Consulting covers the advisory business; Solutions provides the
tools for successful digital transformation, regulatory technology and advanced
analytics; Ventures drives the financing and development of start-ups. BearingPoint’s
clients include many of the world’s leading companies and organizations. The firm has
a global consulting network with more than 10,000 people and supports clients in over
75 countries, engaging with them to achieve measurable and sustainable success.
For more information, please visit:
Homepage: www.bearingpoint.com
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/bearingpoint
Twitter: @BearingPoint
© 2019 BearingPoint. All rights reserved