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Oberoi Realty IPO Note | Strong Mumbai Developer
1. IPO Note | Real Estate
October 6, 2010
Oberoi Realty SUBSCRIBE
Issue Open: October 06, 2010
Rationale for Subscribe view Issue Close: October 08, 2010
Strong brand in the most resilient Mumbai real estate market: Oberoi Realty
(ORL) has a proven track record having been involved in the business of real Is s u e D eta i l s
estate development in Mumbai since 1983. The company develops projects, with Face Value: Rs10
an emphasis on contemporary architecture, strong project execution and quality
Present Eq. Paid up Capital: Rs288.7cr
construction. ORL has been able to achieve bookings of an average 455 units
annually since the last five years except in FY2009 when the market conditions Offer Size: 3.96cr shares
were dismal. A strong brand name also allows ORL to charge premium prices for Post Eq. Paid up Capital: Rs329.7cr
its projects, besides obtaining development rights, pursuant to which it develops
land owned by a third party on a revenue-share basis. Issue size (amount)*: Rs1,000-1,028cr
Price Band: Rs253-260
Well-capitalised balance sheet with healthy leasing portfolio: ORL had net cash of
Rs331cr as on June 2010. ORL recorded rental income of Rs83cr from Oberoi Promoters holding Pre-Issue: 89.3%
Mall and Commerz in FY2010. We expect ORL to report rental income of Rs177cr Promoters holding Post-Issue: 78.1%
in FY2012 with Westin Hotel and Oberoi International School getting operational. No te:*at Lo wer and Upper price band respectively
Replenishing land bank on sustainable basis will be a key challenge: ORL has
land bank of ~20mn sq ft (94% is in Mumbai), which will be developed over the Book Bu ilding
next 6-7 years. This is lower than its other listed peers and the company proposes
QIBs At least 60%
to increase its land bank to ensure longer term growth. Currently, SRA, block
redevelopment and sale of mill land are primary sources of supply of land in Non-Institutional At least 10%
Mumbai where competition is intense. We believe that it would be a challenging Retail At least 30%
task for ORL to reinvest cash flow from its existing projects and replenish its land
bank on sustainable basis over longer term.
Po s t Is su e Sh a reh o l d i n g Pa ttern
Outlook and Valuation: We remain bullish on the Mumbai realty market and
Promoters Group 78.1
developers listed in that space. Most of the developers are trading at a discount to
MF/Banks/Indian
our one-year forward NAV. However, ORL differentiates itself from its peers on
FIs/FIIs/Public & Others 21.9
account of having a strong brand, timely execution of projects and quality
infrastructure coupled with well capitalised balance sheet. Hence, we expect the
company to trade at its one-year forward NAV of Rs295/share. At the higher
band of the issue price, the company is trading at 12% discount to our one-year
forward NAV. We recommend Subscribe to the IPO with a long-term perspective.
Key Financials
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 511 425 784 894 1,226
% chg 117.4 (16.8) 84.2 14.1 37.1
Net Profit 295.4 252.1 458.2 516.7 639.2
% chg 277.5 (14.6) 81.7 12.8 23.7
EBITDA (%) 50.4 58.2 59.6 58.0 57.8
EPS (Rs) 9.0 7.7 14.0 15.7 19.5
P/E (x) 28.9 33.8 18.6 16.5 13.4 Param Desai
P/BV (x) 7.5 6.2 4.7 2.5 2.2 +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 310
RoE (%) 29.7 19.9 28.5 20.0 17.5 Email: paramv.desai@angeltrade.com
RoCE (%) 19.6 17.0 27.6 19.3 18.7
Mihir Salot
EV/Sales (x) 17.0 19.8 10.5 8.0 6.4
+91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 307
EV/EBITDA (x) 33.8 34.1 17.6 13.8 11.1 mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
2. Oberoi Realty | IPO Note
Company Background
Sound Business Model
ORL is a Mumbai–focused real estate developer incorporated in 1998. The
promoter and promoter group have been engaged in real estate development
since 1983. The company caters to the premium segments with major focus on
residential projects besides office space, retail, hospitality and social infrastructure
projects like schools and hospitals. The company intends to create “destination
developments” by offering balanced projects involving diverse products, which
automatically enhance market value of its residential units. ORL follows an
outsourcing model for designing and construction engaging reputable
international and domestic architects and contractors, which enables it to
undertake large developments providing substantial scalability.
Exhibit 1: Organisation Structure
Oberoi Realty Limited
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Oberoi Oberoi Mall Kingston Sangam City Kingston Expressions Triumph
Construction Private Property Township Hospitality and Realty Realty
Private Limited Limited Service Private Private Developers Private Limited Private Limited
Limited Limited Private Limited
50% 100%
Siddivinayak Perspective
Realties Realty Private Oasis Realty Zaco Aviation
Private Limited
Limited
Source: Company RHP, Angel Research
Healthy execution and well-planned projects
As on June 30, 2010, ORL owned 976,679 sq. ft. of saleable area of completed
office space and retail projects (including 58,898 sq. ft. occupied by ORL), which is
being operated on a lease model, while 381,820 sq. ft. of saleable area of
completed hospitality project is under the operating agreement model. As of June
30, 2010, along with the promoter and promoter group, ORL completed 33
projects covering approx 5.0msf of saleable area across Mumbai. Moreover, it has
13 ongoing and 11 planned projects, with a combined saleable area of approx.
20.3msf.
October 6, 2010 2
3. Oberoi Realty | IPO Note
Exhibit 2: Project details
7 6.5
5.8
6
5
4 3.7
(msf)
3.0
3
2 1.7
1.1 1.3
1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2
0.1 0.3 0.3
0.0
0
Residential Office Space Retail Hospitality Social
Infrastructure
Completed Ongoing Planned
Source: Company RHP, Angel Research
Land Reserves
ORL acquired most of its land between 2000-2005 just before the sharp run up in
the land prices at an average cost of Rs100-400/ sq ft. It has been conservative in
acquiring land in the past despite having strong cash accruals and equity funding
of Rs675cr by SSIII Indian Investments Two in January 2007. As on June 2010,
ORL had land reserves of 128 acres translating into 20mn sq ft of saleable area.
Out of the total land reserves, ORL directly owns 74.7%, has sole development
rights on 8.4% while 6.4% of the land bank is subject to MoUs/LoAs for
acquisition.
October 6, 2010 3
4. Oberoi Realty | IPO Note
Exhibit 3: Land Bank details
Land Bank Est. developable % of developable Est. saleable % of saleable
(Category-wise) area (msf) area area (msf) area
I Land owned by the Company 25.3 76.8 15.1 74.7
1. By itself 14.0 42.4 8.8 43.5
2. Through its subsidiaries 11.3 34.4 6.3 31.3
3. Through entities other than (1) and (2) 0.0 - 0.0 -
II Land over which the Company has sole development rights 2.5 7.6 1.7 8.4
1. Directly by the company 0.5 1.4 0.4 1.9
2. Through its subsidiaries 0.0 - 0.0 -
3. Through entities other than (1) and (2) 2.0 6.2 1.3 6.6
III MoU/Agreements to acquire /LoA to which the co. and/or its 0.0 - 0.0 -
subs. and/or its group cos. are parties, of which 1.5 4.7 1.3 6.4
1. Land subject to government allocation 0.0 - 0.0 -
2. Land subject to private acquisition 1.5 4.7 1.3 6.4
Sub-total (I) + (II) + (III) 29.3 89.1 18.1 89.5
Joint developments with partners 0.0 - 0.0 -
IV Land for which joint development agreements have been entered into 3.6 10.9 2.1 10.5
1. Directly by the company 0.0 - 0.0 -
2. Through its subsidiaries 3.6 10.9 2.1 10.5
3. Through entities other than (1) and (2) 0.0 - 0.0 -
V Proportionate interest in lands owned indirectly by the Co. through JV 0.0 - 0.0 -
Sub-total (IV) + (V) 3.6 10.9 2.1 10.5
Total (I) + (II) + (III) + (IV) + (V) 32.9 100.0 20.3 100.0
Source: Company RHP, Angel Research
October 6, 2010 4
5. Oberoi Realty | IPO Note
IPO Details
ORL is coming out with an IPO for Rs1,000-1,028cr through fresh issue of 3.95cr
shares (12.0% of its post-issue paid-up capital) in the price band of
Rs253-260/share. ORL intends to use the IPO proceeds to fund construction of its
ongoing and planned residential and commercial projects, as well as for acquiring
land/land development rights.
Exhibit 4: Objects of the Issue
Particulars Estimated Amt. deployed Balance Amount used/to be used Amount used/to be used
(Rs cr) Cost (as on 31.07.10) Amount from internal accruals from Issue proceeds
Fund construction of ongoing projects 1,004 244 760 19 741
Acquisition of land/land development rights 225 Nil 225 Nil 225
General Corporate Purposes - N.A. N.A. - -
Total - - - 19 -
Source: Company RHP, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Shareholding Pattern
Name of Shareholder Pre-Issue Post-Issue
Number of % of Equity Number of % of Equity
Equity Shares Share Capital Equity Shares Share Capital
Vikas Oberoi (Promoter) 224,313,573 77.7 224,313,573 68.0
Promoter Group 33,302,442 11.5 33,302,442 10.1
R.S. Estate Developers Private Ltd 33,300,000 11.5 33,300,000 10.1
Others 2,442 0.0 2,442 0.0
Total - Promoter & Promoter Goup 257,616,015 89.3 257,616,015 78.1
SSIII Indian Investments Two Ltd 31,055,247 10.8 31,055,247 9.4
ESOP 0 0.0 1,443,356 0.4
Sub Total 288,671,262 100.0 290,114,618 88.0
Public (pursuant to the Issue) - - 39,562,000 12.0
Total (post-issue) 288,671,262 100.0 329,676,618 100.0
Source: Company RHP, Angel Research
October 6, 2010 5
6. Oberoi Realty | IPO Note
Investment Rationale
Ability to create destination development
ORL acquires large contiguous land parcel and undertakes integrated
development. It enhances customer value by offering residential development
complemented by commercial/retail, gardens, club houses, school, hospital and
open spaces. For instance, the flagship Oberoi Garden City is a mixed-used
development on ~75 acres of land in Goregaon in the western suburbs of
Mumbai.
Exhibit 6: Projects at Oberoi Garden City – Goregaon (East)
Project Project Status Land Actual or Est. Start End
Name Type Area Saleable Area Date Date
(acres) (msf)
Oberoi Woods Residential Completed 7.0 0.6 Oct-04 May-08
Rehabilitation Project Residential Completed 0.7 0.1 Jun-00 May-02
Oberoi Townhouse Residential Completed 7.0 0.0 Nov-08 Jun-10
Oberoi Exquisite – I Residential Ongoing 32.2 1.4 Dec-09 Nov-13
Oberoi Exquisite – II Residential Ongoing 32.2 1.3 Jun-10 May-14
Oberoi Exquisite – III Residential Planned 32.2 2.5 Apr-11 Mar-15
Commerz I Office Space Completed 12.1 0.4 Mar-05 Mar-08
Commerz II – Phase I Office Space Ongoing 12.1 0.7 Oct-07 Dec-11
Commerz II – Phase II Office Space Ongoing 12.1 1.7 Oct-07 Dec-12
Oberoi Mall Retail Completed 4.1 0.6 Apr-04 Mar-08
The Westin Mumbai - Garden City Hospitality Completed 12.1 0.4 Oct-06 Apr-10
Oberoi International School Social Infrastructure Ongoing 1.1 0.3 Feb-07 Dec-10
Education Complex Social Infrastructure Planned 3.6 0.9 - Apr-11
Hospital Social Infrastructure Planned 1.2 0.4 - Apr-11
Total 11.2
Source: Company RHP, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: Projects at Oberoi Splendor – Andheri (East)
Project Project Status Land Actual or Est. Start End
Name Type Area Saleable Area Date Date
(acres) (msf)
Oberoi Splendor - I Residential Ongoing 17.5 1.3 Feb-07 Dec-10
Oberoi Splendor - II Residential Ongoing 17.5 0.3 Jan-10 Jun-12
Oberoi Splendor - Commercial I Office Space Ongoing 17.5 0.3 Mar-10 Feb-13
Oberoi Splendor IT Tower Office Space Planned 2.39 0.1 Dec-10 Nov-12
Oberoi Splendor - Commercial II Office Space Ongoing 17.5 0.7 Jun-10 May-13
Oberoi Splendor – School Social Infrastructure Planned 1.61 0.4 - Apr-11
Total 3.1
Source: Company RHP, Angel Research
October 6, 2010 6
7. Oberoi Realty | IPO Note
Outsourcing model ensures timely execution
ORL executes its projects by outsourcing design and construction of projects to the
best in class. This helps it to focus on its core activities such as land procurement,
market intelligence, etc. It avails services from Singapore and Benetel Associates,
SCDA Architects and Larsen and Toubro for construction.
Rental income to improve
ORL has 40% of its land bank in the non-residential segment, which will provide
stability in cash flows going ahead. The company reported rental income of Rs83cr
from Oberoi Mall and Commerz in FY2010. In case of hospitality and social
infrastructure projects, ORL intends to follow an operating agreement model
whereby it will share certain portion of the revenue with the operator. For instance,
ORL has entered into an operating agreement with Starwood Asia Pacific Hotels
and Resorts to operate its Westin hospitality project. We expect ORL to report rental
income of Rs177cr in FY2012 with Westin Hotel and Oberoi International School
getting operational.
Exhibit 8: Rental income trend
180 177
160
140 131
120
100
(Rs cr)
83
74
80
60
40
20
0
FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
Source: Company RHP, Angel Research
October 6, 2010 7
8. Oberoi Realty | IPO Note
Outlook and Valuation
We remain bullish on the Mumbai realty market and the listed players focused on
this market. Most of the developers are trading at a discount to our one-year
forward NAV. However, ORL differentiates itself from its peers on account of
having a strong brand, timely execution of projects and quality infrastructure
coupled with well capitalised balance sheet. Hence, we expect the company to
trade at its one-year forward NAV. For ORL’s existing land bank we have assumed
a seven-eight year development period based on management’s guidance. We
have assumed average realisation of Rs10,000/sq ft on the company’s saleable
interest based on its geographical presence (largely in the Western suburbs of
Mumbai). Thus, our Fair NAV works out to Rs295/share. At the higher band of
issue price, IPO is available at 12% discount to our one-year forward NAV. Hence,
we recommend Subscribe to the IPO with a long-term perspective.
Our Target Price is based on the following assumptions:
We have assigned 14% WACC and 10% capitalisation rate.
The company enjoys 80IB benefit, which results in lower tax rate in the range
of 5-10%. From FY2013 onwards we have assumed 25% tax rate as the future
projects would not be eligible for the mentioned benefits.
We have factored in 5% price escalation from FY2012 onwards in the
construction and capital value for all its residential projects. Thus, we have
valued the company's residential segment at Rs4,376cr, translating into
Rs133/share.
We have factored in a 5% increase in Rentals FY2012 onwards. Hence, the
commercial and retail segment have been valued at Rs3,965cr, fetching
Rs121/share.
We have not factored in the Juhu project while arriving at our NAV fair price
as it is under litigation.
Exhibit 9: Valuation summary
1 Yr forward NAV (Rs per share)
Residential 133
Commercial/Retail 121
Hospitality & Social infra projects 69
Total 323
Add: Net Cash 47
Less: Unpaid land cost/ customer advances (25)
Less: Present value of taxes (50)
NAV/share (Rs) 295
Source: Angel Research
October 6, 2010 8
9. Oberoi Realty | IPO Note
Concerns
Juhu property under litigation; land conversion at Sangam city project
not complete
OCPL, through its joint venture (JV), Siddhivinayak Realties Private Limited (SRPL)
entered into a master asset purchase agreement (MAPA) with Tulip Hospitality
Services in 2005 for purchase of assets in a Juhu hospitality project. The assets
were purchased for a consideration of Rs349.1cr, of which Rs67.5cr has been paid
and Rs7.5cr deposited in an escrow account. However, the MAPA is under dispute
and referred to arbitration.
The Sangam City Township at Pune where ORL holds 31.7% stake, enquiries and
due diligence have been undertaken, but it does not have a title report for the
development site since the land aggregation is underway. Hence, the project may
not be executed in case the land conversion does not happen or the owners of
land terminate the development agreement.
High concentration in land scarce Mumbai market impose reinvestment
risks
ORL has a land bank of ~20mn sq ft (94% is in Mumbai), which will be executed
over the next 6-7 years. This is lower than the other listed players and will have to
be expanded to ensure longer term growth. Currently, the SRA block
redevelopment and sale of mill land are primary sources of supply of land in
Mumbai where competition is intense. We believe it would be a challenging task
for ORL to reinvest cash flow from existing projects and replenish its land bank on
a sustainable basis over longer term.
Dependence on JV partners
ORL has tied up with other real estate developers for executing some of its projects,
while it engages contractors and independent service providers for the
development of the other projects. Joint venture developments contribute10% of its
land bank; in some cases ORL does not even control its JV partners. Hence, it
faces project risks in case the said parties default on their obligations.
October 6, 2010 9
12. Oberoi Realty | IPO Note
Restated Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 1QFY2011
A. Cash flow from operating activities
Net Profit / (loss) before taxation 35 133 302 269 480 86
Adjustment for
Pre acquisition Profit of a Subsidiary 0 (50) 0 0 0 0
Depreciation 0 1 1 8 9 4
Interest income (0) (12) (18) (14) (15) (4)
Interest expenses 1 22 15 5 0 0
(Profit) / Loss on sale of inv. 0 0 0 0 0 (0)
Income from Investments 0 0 (21) (8) (2) (1)
(Profit)/Loss on sale of assets 0 0 (8) (8) 0 0
Op. profit/(loss) before wkg. cap. chgs. 37 94 272 253 472 85
(Dec.)/Inc. in creditors & other liabs (28) 191 81 42 280 34
(Increase) / Decrease in Sundry Debtors 5 (94) (99) 27 (234) 26
(Increase) / Decrease in Inventories (13) (491) 26 (162) 90 (60)
Cash flow from operation 1 (299) 280 160 607 84
Direct taxes (paid) / refunds received 2 16 48 40 84 21
Net cash from operating activities (1) (315) 232 120 524 63
B. Cash flow from investing activities
Sale/(Purch) of FA (incl. CWIP) (50) (116) (195) (232) (167) (18)
Proceeds from sale of fixed assets 0 13 10 10 0 0
Interest income 0 4 18 11 14 3
Dividend Income 0 0 21 8 2 1
Loans & advances to JV 0 (20) (16) (1) (68) (0)
Sale/(purch) of Inv. (Net) 0 0 (385) 369 (64) (36)
Cap. res. on purch/(sale) of subsidiary 0 76 0 0 (0) 0
Net cash (used in) investing activities (49) (44) (547) 165 (283) (51)
C. Cash flow from financing activities
Share Application Money 7 (7) 0 0 0 0
Net Inc./(dec.) in sec. Loans 10 172 (104) (110) (0) 0
Increase in Equity Share Capital 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inc./(dec.) in Pref. Share Capital 0 78 0 (21) (21) 0
Security Premium on Issue of Shares 0 641 0 0 0 0
Share Issue Exp 0 (6) 0 0 (4) (1)
Net Inc./(dec.) in unsec. Loans 34 49 (67) (23) (11) 0
Interest Expenses (1) (22) (15) (5) (0) (0)
Dividend incl. tax (0) (0) (0) (6) (8) (7)
Net cash from financing activities 50 906 (186) (165) (44) (8)
Net (dec)/inc in cash and cash equiv. (1) 547 (501) 121 196 4
Cash and cash equiv. at beg. of year 1 0 547 46 167 363
Cash and cash equiv. at end of year 0 547 46 167 363 367
October 6, 2010 12
13. Oberoi Realty | IPO Note
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October 6, 2010 13
14. Oberoi Realty | IPO Note
Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
Tel: (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800
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