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                                                                                                                       IPO Note | Power
                                                                                                                   September 13, 2010



 Indosolar                                                                                  AVOID
                                                                                            Issue Open: September 13, 2010
 IPO Note                                                                                   Issue Close: September 15, 2010
 Indosolar Ltd manufactures poly-crystalline Solar photo-voltaic (SPV) cells, which
                                                                                            Issue Details
 are primarily sold to the module manufacturers on a business-to-business (B2B)
                                                                                            Face Value: Rs10
 platform, who in turn supply the completed modules to system integrators for its
 final assembly in the solar photovoltaic installations for grid and off-grid (roof top)    Present Eq. Paid up Capital: Rs212.04cr
 applications. At the lower price band of Rs29/share, the implied P/BV would be ~           Offer Size: 11.15cr-12.31cr Shares*
 1.9x FY2011E compared to the average P/BV of 1.0x for its global peers.                    Post Eq. Paid up Capital*:Rs323.6cr-
 We recommend an Avoid on the IPO. IPO.
                                                                                            Rs335.1cr
 Use of proven technology; tie-up with Schmid: The crystalline silicon SPV cell
                             tie-up
                                                                                            Issue size (amount): Rs357cr
 technology used by Indosolar to manufacture PV cells has been tested and
 commercially implemented by major PV players and accounts for more than 93%                Price Band: Rs29-32
 of the global PV manufacturing capacity. The company's production lines have               Promoters holding Pre-Issue: 97.6%
 been procured from Schmid, one of the world leaders in PV technology, whose                Promoters holding Post-Issue: 61.8% - 64%
 clients include REC and Moser Baer PV.                                                     Note:*at Lower and Upper price band respec-
 Heavily dependent on government subsidies: The high cost of solar PV installations         tively
 makes it necessary for the industry to be heavily dependent on government subsidies.
 Going forward, the political/market changes may result in significant reduction or
 elimination of subsidies or economic incentives such as a more accelerated reduction       Book Building
 of feed-in-tariffs (FIT) than planned.                                                     QIBs                            At least 50%
 Risk of technological obsolescence: The solar PV industry is characterised by rapidly      Non-Institutional               At least 15%
 changing technology in both the process as well as the input raw materials,
                                                                                            Retail                          At least 35%
 necessitating companies to regularly invest in newer technologies. Inability to foresee
 such changes accurately and upgrade by incurring the capital expenditure would
 result in technological obsolescence.
                                                                                            Post Issue Shareholding Pattern
 Outlook and Valuation: Indosolar is a relatively new entrant to the solar PV business
               Valuation:
 and is yet to demonstrate its capabilities in managing raw material and other              Promoters Group                        61.8%

 manufacturing costs. In its initial year of operations (FY2010), the company incurred      MF/Banks/Indian
                                                                                            FIs/FIIs/Public & Others               38.2%
 losses of over Rs66cr on sales of ~ Rs113cr. Total capacity, as on date, is 160MW.
 Annual production for FY2011 is expected to be ~ 90-100MW translating into
 sales revenues of ~Rs.600cr. Despite having low capacity utilisation, Indosolar
 plans to add a third line of 100MW capacity at a capital cost of over Rs337cr. Post
 the ramp up in capacities by FY2012, Indosolar would emerge as one of the leading
 Indian manufacturers of PV solar cells, which would enable it to exploit the
 opportunities unfolding in the Indian solar PV space.
 We believe that though the robust order book of ~ Rs1,012cr provides revenue
 visibility in the medium term, there is uncertainty on EBIDTA and profitability margins
 embedded in the current order backlog. Moreover, over 80% of the order book is
 derived from the European markets where the declining FIT has the potential to
 trigger downward pricing pressures, going forward. Given the volatile global
 demand for PV products and the company's limited operating history, ascribing a
 valuation multiple to Indosolar seems challenging at this point of time. P/BV seems            Perinchery
                                                                                           John Perinchery
 to be the most conservative tool on which companies like Indosolar can be valued          +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 347
 vis-a-vis its global peers. At the lower price band of Rs29/share, the implied P/BV       Email: john.perinchery@angeltrade.com
 would be ~ 1.9x FY2011E compared to the average P/BV of 1.0x for its global
 peers. On a EV/Sales basis, Indosolar is projected to trade at ~ 2.5x FY2011              Hemang Thaker
 estimates compared to its global peers who trade at ~ 1.1x CY2010 estimates.              +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 342
 Hence, we recommend an Avoid on the IPO.     IPO.                                         hemang.thaker@angeltrade.com


Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Indosolar | IPO Note




                                        Company Background
                                        Indosolar manufactures poly-crystalline SPV cells from silicon wafers utilising
                                        crystalline silicon SPV cell technology. The company's products are primarily sold
                                        to the module manufacturers on a B2B platform, who in turn supply the completed
                                        modules to the system integrators for its final assembly in the solar PV installations for
                                        grid and off-grid (roof top) applications. Indosolar's clientele are spread across the
                                        domestic market as well as markets in Europe, Spain, Japan, Asia, Canada and USA.

Exhibit 1: SPV Value chain




                                                        Indosolar

      Poly -silicon      Ingot                             Cell             Module             Solar            Installation/
                      Production      Wafering                                              intergrator
      Production                                        production         Assembly                             Distribution




Source: Company RHP

                                        Operations commenced backed by robust order book: Indosolar commenced the
                                        manufacture of SPV cells from its first line of 80MW capacity in July 2009 and
                                        commissioned an identical second line of another 80MW capacity in March 2010. As
                                        on date, the company has total capacity of 160MW. As per the company's RHP it has
                                                                                                                   ,
                                        been able to achieve a run-rate of ~ 6MW/month in the last four months (April- July
                                        2010) despite having a monthly operational capacity of over 13MW. Order book, as
                                        of July 31, 2010, stood at Rs1,012cr (~170MW of SPV cells). Going ahead, to gear
                                        up to meet increasing demand for SPV products and to enhance scale, Indosolar
                                        plans to increase its annual manufacturing capacity to ~ 260MW by 2012, with one
                                        additional line having annual manufacturing capacity of 100MW.


Exhibit 2: Revenue distribution by Geography (July 09-10)     Exhibit 3: Order Backlog as of 31st July 2010




Source: Company RHP                                           Source: Company RHP




September 13, 2010                                                                                                              2
Indosolar | IPO Note




                     Use of proven technology; tie-up with Schmid: The crystalline silicon SPV cell technology
                                                tie-up
                     used by Indosolar to manufacture PV cells has been tested and commercially
                     implemented by major PV players and accounts for more than 93% of global PV
                     manufacturing capacity. The company's production lines have been procured from
                     Schmid, a world leader in PV technology, whose clients include REC and Moser Baer
                     PV. As per the contract, Schmid would provide operational efficiency of 15.5% within
                     six months of commercial production. The tie-up also entails free transfer of any
                     improvement in technology to the company within five years of installation of the
                     facility.

                     Approvals in place for grant of financial incentives: Indosolar is one of the few
                     companies which has received in-principle approval from the Ministry of
                     Communication and Information Technology, Government of India (GoI) for grant of
                     financial incentives of 25% of the total cost as submitted to the GoI under the
                     "Special Incentive Package Scheme" of 2007. Having fulfilled the conditions
                     specified, the company has applied for grant of formal approval in March 2010.




September 13, 2010                                                                                          3
Indosolar | IPO Note




                                                   IPO details
                                                   Indosolar Ltd. will be accessing the capital market with an initial public offering (IPO)
                                                   of Rs357cr through the 100% book building process. The IPO price band has been
                                                   fixed between Rs29 and Rs32 per equity share of face value Rs10 each. The issue
                                                   opens on September 13, 2010, and closes on September 15, 2010.


Exhibit 4: Shareholding Pattern
 Shareholders                                                                            Pre-Issue
                                                                                         Pre
                                                                                          re-Issue                            Post Issue
                                                                                                                              Post
                                                                                    no. of           % of                  no. of            % of
                                                                            Equity shares      Eq. capital         Equity shares       Eq. capital
    Promoters:
 A) Promoters:
 Mr. Hulas Rahul Gupta                                                       80,385,494              37.9           80,385,494              24.0
 Mr. Bhushan Kumar Gupta                                                     56,500,001              26.6           56,500,001               16.9
 Sub-Total
 Sub-                                                                       136,885,495              64.6         136,885,495               40.8
 Promoter Group :
 Greenlite Lighting Corporation                                              70,114,500              33.1           70,114,500               20.9
 Ms. Priya Desh Gupta                                                                    1            Neg                      1             Neg
 Ms. Abha Gupta                                                                          1            Neg                      1             Neg
 Sub-Total
 Sub-                                                                        70,114,502              33.1           70,114,502              20.9
 Total (Promoters)
       (Promoters)                                                          206,999,997              97.6         206,999,997               61.8
 B) Others:
 Mr. Anand Kumar Agarwal                                                                 1            Neg                      1             Neg
 Mr. Gurbaksh Singh Vohra                                                                1            Neg                      1             Neg
 Mr. Atul Kumar Mittal                                                                   1            Neg                      1             Neg
 Brand Equity Treaties Limited                                                1,400,000                0.7           1,400,000                0.4
 Schmid Singapore Pte. Ltd.                                                   3,640,579                1.7           3,640,579                1.1
 Total (Non Promoters)
            Promoters)                                                        5,040,582                2.4           5,040,582                1.5
 Total Pre-Issue Share Capital
       Pre
        re-Issue                                                            212,040,579             100.0         212,040,579               63.3
 C) Public (pursuant to the Issue)                                                                                123,103,448               36.7
 Total Post-Issue Share Capital
       Post
        ost-Issue                                                                                                 335,144,027              100.0
Source: Company RHP Angel Research; Note: Fresh Equity offering calculated at lower price band of Rs 29/share.
                   ,


                                                   Exhibit 5: Objects of the Issue
                                                                                                             Amt. deployed
                                                                                              Estimated              (as on     Estimated schedule
                                                     Particulars (Rs cr)                           Cost        July 31 '10)    FY2011 FY2012
                                                     Setting up of line 3                          337                    -        270         67
                                                     General corporate purposes                                           -
                                                     Total                                         337
                                                   Source: Company RHP




September 13, 2010                                                                                                                                   4
Indosolar | IPO Note




                     Recommendation rationale
                     Heavily dependent on government subsidies: The high cost of solar PV installations
                     makes it necessary for the industry to be heavily dependent on the government subsidies.
                     When the upfront system costs are factored into the cost per KW, the cost of solar
                     power substantially exceeds the cost of power supplied by the electric utility grid in
                     almost all locations. As a result, the national and local governmental bodies in
                     many countries provide subsidies and economic incentives in the form of FIT, rebates,
                     tax credits and other incentives to the distributors, system integrators and
                     manufacturers of solar power products to promote the use of solar energy in
                     on-grid applications and reduce dependence on other forms of energy.

                     Going forward, the political/market changes may result in significant reductions or
                     eliminations of subsidies or economic incentives, such as a more accelerated reduction
                     of FIT than planned. German subsidies would decline at 5-6.5% pa, while Italy is
                     contemplating FIT to decline by 6% every four months in 2011 and a further 6% in the
                     two years thereafter. The Spanish market, which was the largest for PV products during
                     2009, had already collapsed on account of the subsidy decline for budget-tightening
                     purposes. Thus, the subsidy cuts across the globe are expected to adversely impact
                     the new solar PV installations and result in renewed bout of pricing pressure.

                     Risk of technological obsolescence: The solar PV industry is characterised by rapidly
                     changing technology in both the process as well as the input raw materials, necessitating
                     companies to regularly invest in newer technologies. Inability to foresee such changes
                     accurately and upgrade by incurring the capital expenditure would result in
                     technological obsolescence. Moreover, to remain competitive, companies need to
                     continuously invest heavily in research and development.

                     Volatile input prices may impact profitability: Prices of poly-silicon wafers, the key raw
                     material for manufacturing SPV, have been volatile during the past many years. Raw
                     materials constitute ~ 89% of the total manufacturing cost. Increase in the
                     poly-silicon prices have in the past resulted in the wafer prices increasing. The average
                     long-term supply contract price of poly-silicon increased between 2006 and
                     2008. However, in the late 2008 and 2009, newly available poly-silicon supply
                     and sluggish global solar power market growth resulted in excess supply of
                     poly-silicon, which created a downward pressure on the poly-silicon price.
                     According to solar buzz, spot prices of solar grade poly-silicon fell rapidly from
                     US $450-470/kg to US $150-130/kg in the first quarter of 2009 and thereafter drifted
                     to the US $55-60/kg range by end of 2009.

                     Financials impacted by high manufacturing cost: As at March 31, 2010, Indosolar
                     booked sales revenues of ~ Rs113cr (19.38MW of SPV sold) and incurred
                     manufacturing costs of ~ Rs132cr. Total expenditure including depreciation and interest
                     added up to ~Rs198cr, resulting in a loss of over Rs66cr for FY 2010.

                     Fixed assets as on March 31, 2010 stood at ~ Rs663cr, while the net current assets
                     were at ~ Rs25cr. Debt in the books was at Rs543cr. The resultant net worth of
                     ~Rs144cr translates into a book value of Rs 6.78/ share as against the face value of
                     Rs10. Losses incurred during FY2010 had wiped out ~ 32% of the net worth.




September 13, 2010                                                                                           5
Indosolar | IPO Note




                                              Industry Overview
                                              The solar PV business is primarily driven by market factors including:

                                              (a)      The government incentives such as "FIT" and "green certificates" for solar
                                                       power and efforts by countries in the developed and emerging markets to
                                                       achieve 'grid parity';

                                              (b)      Increasing consumer awareness for alternatives sources of energy, amid growing
                                                       concerns in relation to global warming and extinction of conventional fuels;
                                                       and

                                              (c)      Growing industry demand for solar power and desire for energy security.

                                              The demand for SPV cells is determined by those countries which are driven by solar
                                              grid parity and also by the demand for solar modules and other downstream
                                              solar power products, which in turn is affected significantly by the government
                                              subsidies and economic incentives in their targeted or potential markets. Government
                                              bodies in many countries, most notably Germany, Spain, Italy, the U.S., France,
                                              Japan, State of Ontario in Canada, India and China, have provided subsidies and
                                              economic incentives to reduce dependency on non-renewable sources of energy.

                                              Global scenario: Solar power is one of the popular resources for renewable energy
                                              that has been actively pursued by many countries especially in Europe. The increase
                                              in its popularity is reflected by the increase in total annual production of
                                              crystalline silicon cells and thin film PV cells to a consolidated level of 7.30GW in
                                              2009, five times the level in 2005. Demand from countries such as Spain, Germany,
                                              South Korea, Italy and United States was, to a great extent, responsible for the
                                              spectacular growth. In 2009, there were ten markets delivering more than 100MW of
                                              market demand, with Germany alone accounting for 53% of the world market.

Exhibit 6: PV Market Segmentation (MW)                                Exhibit 7: Cell manufacturing capacity (%)
  100                                         4
                                                                            100
                                                             7                    9           7              7             7          8
                                 8            6              7              90
                                                                                  8           8                                       11
                      17                      8              10             80                               7
      80                         8                                                                                         8          10
           20
                                                                            70
                                 8                           24
      60                                                                    60                26             20            12         22
                                                                                  37
                      8
(%)




                                                                      (%)




                                                                            50
           7
      40                                      52                            40
                      9
                                 29                                         30
           9                                                 53                                                            26         51
      20                                                                    20                26             27
                                                                                  29
                      11                                                    10
           6
      0                                                                       0
           57        56          47           31            2009
                 Germany   ROE    ROW   USA         Japan                                   China   Europe   Japan   ROW        USA
Source: Company RHP                                                   Source: Company RHP




September 13, 2010                                                                                                                         6
Indosolar | IPO Note




                     Europe - Driver of global PV market: Spain overtook Germany to become the largest
                     PV market in 2008, achieving market size of 2.46GW registering substantial growth
                     of 285%. However, post the collapse of the Spanish markets, in 2009 Germany
                     regained leadership as the largest PV market with a market size of 3.87GW,
                     growing by 109%. Excluding Germany, the rest of the global market fell from 4.22GW
                     in 2008 to 3.43GW in 2009, a decline of 19%, which was largely a result of the fall
                     off in Spain. Excluding Germany and Spain, rest of the global market grew by a
                     strong 89% from 1.76GW in 2008 to 3.33GW in 2009. Italy was the second largest
                     market at 0.62GW followed by the USA at 0.49GW and Japan at 0.48GW.

                     Subsidy cuts and global slowdown impacts growth momentum: The high growth
                     witnessed in the global solar photovoltaic industry, limited only by supply capability,
                     came to an end in the fourth quarter of 2008. For an industry whose end-market is
                     largely dependent on the government incentives, changes in the government policy in
                     Spain coupled with the global economic turndown limited the financing options in
                     turn interrupting the growth momentum.




September 13, 2010                                                                                        7
Indosolar | IPO Note




                     Domestic scenario
                     Untapped potential: India is both densely populated and has high solar insolation,
                     which provides an ideal combination for solar power. In 2008, India's solar PV
                     market recorded 20% growth to 36MW in annual installations. Despite the
                     modest growth from 2007, there are indications that this could indeed be a precursor
                     for far stronger growth in the years to come, led by large ground mounted on-grid
                     installations. In 2008, majority of India's solar market remained in the off-grid
                     segments led by widespread rural electrification programs, street lighting and remote
                     banking/ATM projects, as well as industrial applications such as solar-powered
                     telecom base stations, railway signaling and defence monitoring in the border areas.
                     Growth in the off-grid sector was not just witnessed in India's rural countryside, but
                     also in the urban areas, with increasing sales of solar stand-alone systems
                     providing an alternative to diesel generators to back up the unstable and unreliable
                     grid.

                     Policies in place to nurture growth: The policy roadmap required to promote the
                     growth of solar power industry in India, the "Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission"
                     (the "Solar Mission") was approved by the GoI on November 19, 2009. The objective
                     of the "Solar Mission" is to establish India as a global leader in solar energy, by creating
                     the policy conditions for its diffusion across the country as quickly as possible. The
                     "Solar Mission" will adopt a three-phase approach, spanning the remaining period of
                     the Eleventh Plan and first year of the Twelfth Plan (up to 2012-13) as Phase 1, the
                     remaining four years of the Twelfth Plan (2013-17) as Phase 2 and the Thirteenth
                     Plan (2017-22) as Phase 3. At the end of each Plan, and mid-term during the Twelfth
                     and Thirteenth Plans, there will be an evaluation of progress, review of capacity
                     and targets for subsequent phases, based on emerging cost and technology trends,
                     both domestic and global. The aim would be to protect government from subsidy
                     exposure in case the expected cost reduction does not materialise or is more rapid
                     than expected.

                     The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission ("CERC") has recently issued guidelines
                     for fixing the FIT for purchase of solar power taking into account current cost and
                     technology trends. The CERC Tariff Regulations lay down the normative parameters
                     for determination of tariff for renewable energy sources. The key features of the
                     CERC Tariff Regulations from solar PV perspective are:
                     a)    The tariff period for solar PV defined as 25 years;
                     b)    Normative debt-equity ratio of 70:30;
                     c)    Normative return on equity ("RoE");
                     d)    Pre-tax 19% pa for first 10 years; and
                     e)    Pre-tax 24% pa 11th year onwards.

                     A 25-year firm PPA with attractive RoE is expected to make the solar farm business in
                     India lucrative for many players and give the industry the growth that the "Solar Mission"
                     proposes. As per the template form for solar (PV), the leveled tariff at 1,700lakh/MW
                     for solar PV's based on normative numbers laid in the regulation works out to
                     Rs18.44/kWh. The National Tariff Policy, 2006 is also expected to be modified to
                     mandate that the state electricity regulators fix a percentage for purchase of solar
                     power. The solar power purchase obligation for states may start with 0.25% in Phase
                     I and go up to 3% by 2022.

September 13, 2010                                                                                             8
Indosolar | IPO Note




                     Solar PV Industry - SWOT Analysis
                     Strengths

                         Abundant worldwide availability of sunlight without geological concerns.

                         Low operation and maintenance cost of PV systems.

                     Weaknesses

                         High capital cost of solar PV systems. The cost per MW for solar PV systems is
                         ~ Rs17cr as compared to Rs5.5 - 6cr for wind energy.

                         Highly dependent on government subsidies and incentives to be economically
                         feasible. Feed in tariffs worked out by CERC based on normative numbers is
                         Rs18.44/ kWh.

                     Threats

                         Process and raw material technologies keep changing rapidly resulting in risks
                         of obsolescence for the existing manufacturing facilities.

                         Economic slowdown and tariff subsidy cuts would negatively impact growth of
                         solar PV systems.

                     Opportunities

                         Rising energy and oil prices, together with increased environmental awareness
                         would accelerate efforts for increased use of solar power.

                         Strong focus on improving PV technologies would result in lower costs in future.




September 13, 2010                                                                                     9
Indosolar | IPO Note




                                                 Outlook and Valuation
                                                 Indosolar is a relatively new entrant to the solar PV business and is yet to demonstrate
                                                 its capabilities in managing raw material and other manufacturing costs. In its initial
                                                 year of operations (FY2010), the company incurred losses of over Rs66cr on sales of
                                                 ~ Rs113cr. Total capacity, as on date, is 160MW. Annual production for FY2011 is
                                                 expected to be ~ 90-100MW translating into sales revenues of ~Rs.600cr. Despite
                                                 having low capacity utilisation, Indosolar plans to add a third line of 100MW capacity
                                                 at a capital cost of over Rs337cr. Post the ramp up in capacities by FY2012, Indosolar
                                                 would emerge as one of the leading Indian manufacturers of PV solar cells, which
                                                 would enable it to exploit the opportunities unfolding in the Indian solar PV space.

                                                 We believe that though the robust order book of ~ Rs1,012cr provides revenue visibility
                                                 in the medium term, there is uncertainty on EBIDTA and profitability margins embedded
                                                 in the current order backlog. Moreover, over 80% of the order book is derived from
                                                 the European markets where the declining FIT has the potential to trigger downward
                                                 pricing pressures, going forward. Given the volatile global demand for PV products
                                                 and the company's limited operating history, ascribing a valuation multiple to Indosolar
                                                 seems challenging at this point of time. P/BV seems to be the most conservative tool
                                                 on which companies like Indosolar can be valued vis-a-vis its global peers. At the
                                                 lower price band of Rs29/share, the implied P/BV would be ~ 1.9x FY2011E compared
                                                 to the average P/BV of 1.0x for its global peers. On a EV/Sales basis, Indosolar is
                                                 projected to trade at ~ 2.5x FY2011 estimates compared to its global peers who
                                                 trade at ~ 1.1x CY2010 estimates. Hence, we recommend an Avoid on the IPO.       IPO.

Exhibit 8: Peer Comparison - Indian
                               Mkt Cap          P/E(x)              EV/EBITDA(x)
                                                                    EV/EBITDA(x)                 P/BV(x)
                                                                                                 P/BV(x)                 EV/Sales(x)
                              ( USD mn) CY10E CY11E CY12E CY10E CY11E CY12E CY10E CY11E CY12E CY10E CY11E CY12E
 Suntech Power                  1,616    13.8    10.5     8.9     7.9     7.1      6.3     1.0     0.9     0.8     0.9       0.8       0.7
 Sharp Corp                    11,075    19.0    14.5    12.5     4.1     4.1      4.1     0.9     0.8     0.8     0.4       0.4       0.4
 Q-Cells Se                       764       -    21.8    14.6     8.9     7.1      6.0     0.8     0.8     0.7     0.8       0.8       0.7
 Ja Solar Holdings              1,221     7.2     7.1     4.9     4.9     4.5      3.5     1.3     1.1     0.9     0.8       0.6       0.5
 Kyocera Corp                  17,438    14.6    13.9    13.2     5.8     5.6      5.3     1.0     0.9     0.9     0.8       0.7       0.7
 Trina Solar Ltd-Spon           2,175    10.5     9.9    10.1     6.7     6.8      5.7     1.9     1.6     1.3     1.5       1.4       1.0
 Sunpower Corp                  1,165     8.7     7.0     7.1     6.9     5.5      5.7     0.8     0.7     0.7     0.5       0.4       0.3
 Gintech Energy Corp              927     8.5     9.6     7.2     7.7     7.9      5.5     1.8     1.5     1.3     1.3       1.3       0.9
 Renewable Energy Corp          3,124    42.7    24.3    17.8    11.0     6.5      6.0     0.9     0.9     0.8     2.3       1.7       1.5
 Average                                 15.6    13.2    10.7     7.1     6.1      5.4     1.1     1.0     0.9     1.1       0.9       0.7
Source: Bloomberg estimates




September 13, 2010                                                                                                                      10
Indosolar | IPO Note




                     Restated Profit & Loss Statement
                      Particulars (Rs cr)                   FY2006 FY2007 FY2008    FY2009   FY2010
                      Net Sales                                  -       -      -        -     113

                      Other operating income                     -       -      -        -        -

                      Total operating income                     -       -     -         -     113

                      Inc (dec) in stock                         -       -      -        -     (30)

                      Manufacturing costs                        -       -      -        -     161

                      Personnel                                  -       -      -       5        8

                      Selling and Administrative expenses       0       0      0        4       11

                      Others                                    0        -      -        -        -

                      Total Expenditure                         0       0      0        8      152

                      EBITDA
                      EBITDA                                   (0)    (0)     (0)      (8)     (39)

                      (% of Net Sales)                           -       -      -        -     (35)

                      Depreciation& Amortisation                0       0      0        0       19

                      EBIT                                     (0)    (0)     (0)      (9)     (58)

                      (% of Net Sales)                           -       -      -        -      (1)

                      Interest & other Charges                  0       0      0        0       27

                      Other Income                               -       -      -       1       19

                      Others                                     -       -      -        -        -

                      Recurring PBT                            (0)    (0)     (0)      (8)     (66)

                      Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.)               -       -      -        -        -

                      PBT (reported)                           (0)    (0)     (0)      (8)     (66)

                      Tax:

                      current tax                                -       -      -        -        -

                      Fringe benefit tax                         -       -      -       0         -

                      Wealth Tax                                 -       -      -       0        0

                      PAT (reported)                           (0)    (0)     (0)      (8)     (66)

                      P/L brough forward from previous year      -     (0)    (0)      (1)     (15)

                      Loss carried forward on amalgamtion        -       -      -      (6)        -

                      P/L carried forward to Balance sheet     (0)     (0)    (1)     (15)     (81)




September 13, 2010                                                                               11
Indosolar | IPO Note




                     Restated Balance Sheet
                      Particulars (Rs cr)                   FY2006 FY2007 FY2008    FY2009   FY2010
                      SOURCES OF FUNDS

                      Equity Share Capital                      0       0      0        0      208

                      Equity shares to be issued pursuant

                      to the scheme of amalgamation              -       -      -     189         -

                      Reserves & Surplus                       (0)     (0)    (1)     (15)     (77)

                      Share Application money                    -       -      -        -      15

                                   Funds
                      Shareholders Funds                       (0)    (0)     (1)     175      146

                      Minority Interest                          -       -      -        -        -

                      Total Loans                               1       2       -     245      544

                      Deferred Tax Liability                     -       -      -        -        -

                      Total Liabilities                         1       2     (1)     420      690

                      APPLICATION OF FUNDS
                      APPLICATION

                      Gross Block                               3       3      3       71      673

                      Less: Acc. Depreciation                   0       0      0        1       20

                      Net Block                                 3       2      2       70      653

                      Capital Work-in-Progress                   -       -     3      363       10

                      Goodwill                                   -       -      -        -        -

                      Investments                                -       -      -        -        -

                      Current Assets                             -      0      0       41      138

                         Cash                                    -      0      0       31       24

                         Inventories                             -       -      -       3       77

                         Debtors                                 -       -      -        -      23

                         Loans & Advances                        -       -      -       7       14

                      Current liabilities                       1       1      6       54      114

                      Net Current Assets                       (1)    (1)     (6)     (13)      25

                      Mis. Exp. not written off                  -       -      -        -       3

                      Total Assets                              1       2     (1)     420      690




September 13, 2010                                                                               12
Indosolar | IPO Note




                     Restated Cash Flow Statement
                      Particulars (Rs cr)                         FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009   FY2010
                      Cash flow from operating activities
                      Net Profit/ (loss) after tax, as restated       (0)   (0)    (0)    (8)     (66)
                      Adjustment for :
                      Provision for tax                                 -     -      -     0        0
                      Depreciation and amortisation                    0     0      0      0       19
                      Interest income                                   -     -      -    (1)      (0)
                      Interest expenses                                0     0      0      0       25
                      Unrealised forex (gain)/loss                      -     -      -     0       (5)
                                (Loss)/profit
                      Operating (Loss)/profit before
                      changes in working capital                      (0)   (0)    (0)    (8)     (27)
                      (Inc)/ dec in sundry debtors                      -     -      -      -     (23)
                      (Inc)/ dec in inventories                         -     -      -    (3)     (74)
                      (Inc)/ dec in loans and advances                  -     -      -    37       (7)
                      (Inc)/ dec in curr. lia and prov.                0     0      5     (4)      84
                      Net changes in working capital                  (0)   (0)     5     23      (48)
                      Taxes paid                                        -     -      -    (0)      (0)
                      Cash generated from operations                  (0)   (0)     5     22      (49)
                      Cash flow from investing activities:
                      Inc (dec) in capital creditors                   1    (0)    (0)     6       (4)
                      Additions to fixed assets                       (3)     -    (3)   (81)    (227)
                      Interest received                                 -     -      -     1        1
                      Net cash from (used in) investing activities    (1)   (0)    (3)   (74)    (229)
                      Cash flow from financing activities
                      Issue of shares                                  0      -      -     4       19
                      Premium on shares                                 -     -      -      -       4
                      Share application money                           -     -      -      -      15
                      Borrowings - short term                          1     1     (2)      -        -
                      Borrowings - unsecured loan                       -     -      -      -       7
                      Term loan                                         -     -      -    13      214
                      Repayment of term loan                            -     -      -   (14)        -
                      Proceeds from working capital loan                -     -      -      -      34
                      Proceeds from short term loan                     -     -      -      -      25
                      Share issue expenses                              -     -      -      -      (3)
                      Interest paid                                     -   (0)    (0)    (8)     (43)
                      Net cash from (used in) financing activities     1     0     (2)    (6)     272
                      Net increase/(decrease) in cash and
                      cash equivalents                                  -    0      0    (58)      (7)
                      Cash and cash equivalents at the
                      beginning of the year                             -     -     0      0       31
                      Cash and cash equivalents acquired
                      on amalgamation                                   -     -      -    88         -
                      Cash and cash equivalents at the
                      end of the year                                   -    0      0     31       24




September 13, 2010                                                                                  13
Indosolar




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decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
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  Ratings (Returns) :           Buy (> 15%)                               Accumulate (5% to 15%)                       Neutral (-5 to 5%)
                                Reduce (-5% to 15%)                       Sell (< -15%)
Indosolar



               Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
                                                        Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800

Research Team
Fundamental:
Sarabjit Kour Nangra                                                                               VP-Research, Pharmaceutical                                                            sarabjit@angeltrade.com
Vaibhav Agrawal                                                                                    VP-Research, Banking                                                                   vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com
Vaishali Jajoo                                                                                     Automobile                                                                             vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com
Shailesh Kanani                                                                                    Infrastructure, Real Estate                                                            shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com
Anand Shah                                                                                         FMCG , Media                                                                           anand.shah@angeltrade.com
Deepak Pareek                                                                                      Oil & Gas                                                                              deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com
Sushant Dalmia                                                                                     Pharmaceutical                                                                         sushant.dalmia@angeltrade.com
Rupesh Sankhe                                                                                      Cement, Power                                                                          rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com
Param Desai                                                                                        Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping                                                       paramv.desai@angeltrade.com
Sageraj Bariya                                                                                     Fertiliser, Mid-cap                                                                    sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com
Viraj Nadkarni                                                                                     Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap                                                                virajm.nadkarni@angeltrade.com
Paresh Jain                                                                                        Metals & Mining                                                                        pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com
Amit Rane                                                                                          Banking                                                                                amitn.rane@angeltrade.com
John Perinchery                                                                                    Capital Goods                                                                          john.perinchery@angeltrade.com
Srishti Anand                                                                                      IT, Telecom                                                                            srishti.anand@angeltrade.com
Jai Sharda                                                                                         Mid-cap                                                                                jai.sharda@angeltrade.com
Sharan Lillaney                                                                                    Mid-cap                                                                                sharanb.lillaney@angeltrade.com
Amit Vora                                                                                          Research Associate (Oil & Gas)                                                         amit.vora@angeltrade.com
V Srinivasan                                                                                       Research Associate (Cement, Power)                                                     v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com
Mihir Salot                                                                                        Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping)                                               mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com
Chitrangda Kapur                                                                                   Research Associate (FMCG, Media)                                                       chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com
Vibha Salvi                                                                                        Research Associate (IT, Telecom)                                                       vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com
Pooja Jain                                                                                         Research Associate (Metals & Mining)                                                   pooja.j@angeltrade.com
Yaresh Kothari                                                                                     Research Associate (Automobile)                                                        yareshb.kothari@angeltrade.com
Shrinivas Bhutda                                                                                   Research Associate (Banking)                                                           shrinivas.bhutda@angeltrade.com
Sreekanth P .V.S                                                                                   Research Associate (FMCG, Media)                                                       sreekanth.s@angeltrade.com
Hemang Thaker                                                                                      Research Associate (Capital Goods)                                                     hemang.thaker@angeltrade.com
Nitin Arora                                                                                        Research Associate (Infrastructure, Real Estate)                                       nitin.arora@angeltrade.com
Technicals:
Shardul Kulkarni                                                                                   Sr. Technical Analyst                                                                  shardul.kulkarni@angeltrade.com
Mileen Vasudeo                                                                                     Technical Analyst                                                                      vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com
Derivatives:
Siddarth Bhamre                                                                                    Head - Derivatives                                                                     siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com
Jaya Agarwal                                                                                       Derivative Analyst                                                                     jaya.agarwal@angeltrade.com

Institutional Sales Team:
Mayuresh Joshi                                                                                     VP - Institutional Sales                                                               mayuresh.joshi@angeltrade.com
Abhimanyu Sofat                                                                                    AVP - Institutional Sales                                                              abhimanyu.sofat@angeltrade.com
Nitesh Jalan                                                                                       Sr. Manager                                                                            niteshk.jalan@angeltrade.com
Pranav Modi                                                                                        Sr. Manager                                                                            pranavs.modi@angeltrade.com
Sandeep Jangir                                                                                     Sr. Manager                                                                            sandeepp.jangir@angeltrade.com
Ganesh Iyer                                                                                        Sr. Manager                                                                            ganeshb.Iyer@angeltrade.com
Jay Harsora                                                                                        Sr. Dealer                                                                             jayr.harsora@angeltrade.com
Meenakshi Chavan                                                                                   Dealer                                                                                 meenakshis.chavan@angeltrade.com
Gaurang Tisani                                                                                     Dealer                                                                                 gaurangp.tisani@angeltrade.com

Production Team:
Bharathi Shetty                                                                                    Research Editor                                                                        bharathi.shetty@angeltrade.com
Simran Kaur                                                                                        Research Editor                                                                        simran.kaur@angeltrade.com
Bharat Patil                                                                                       Production                                                                             bharat.patil@angeltrade.com
Dilip Patel                                                                                        Production                                                                             dilipm.patel@angeltrade.com



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Indosolar IPO Note

  • 1. Power IPO Note | Power September 13, 2010 Indosolar AVOID Issue Open: September 13, 2010 IPO Note Issue Close: September 15, 2010 Indosolar Ltd manufactures poly-crystalline Solar photo-voltaic (SPV) cells, which Issue Details are primarily sold to the module manufacturers on a business-to-business (B2B) Face Value: Rs10 platform, who in turn supply the completed modules to system integrators for its final assembly in the solar photovoltaic installations for grid and off-grid (roof top) Present Eq. Paid up Capital: Rs212.04cr applications. At the lower price band of Rs29/share, the implied P/BV would be ~ Offer Size: 11.15cr-12.31cr Shares* 1.9x FY2011E compared to the average P/BV of 1.0x for its global peers. Post Eq. Paid up Capital*:Rs323.6cr- We recommend an Avoid on the IPO. IPO. Rs335.1cr Use of proven technology; tie-up with Schmid: The crystalline silicon SPV cell tie-up Issue size (amount): Rs357cr technology used by Indosolar to manufacture PV cells has been tested and commercially implemented by major PV players and accounts for more than 93% Price Band: Rs29-32 of the global PV manufacturing capacity. The company's production lines have Promoters holding Pre-Issue: 97.6% been procured from Schmid, one of the world leaders in PV technology, whose Promoters holding Post-Issue: 61.8% - 64% clients include REC and Moser Baer PV. Note:*at Lower and Upper price band respec- Heavily dependent on government subsidies: The high cost of solar PV installations tively makes it necessary for the industry to be heavily dependent on government subsidies. Going forward, the political/market changes may result in significant reduction or elimination of subsidies or economic incentives such as a more accelerated reduction Book Building of feed-in-tariffs (FIT) than planned. QIBs At least 50% Risk of technological obsolescence: The solar PV industry is characterised by rapidly Non-Institutional At least 15% changing technology in both the process as well as the input raw materials, Retail At least 35% necessitating companies to regularly invest in newer technologies. Inability to foresee such changes accurately and upgrade by incurring the capital expenditure would result in technological obsolescence. Post Issue Shareholding Pattern Outlook and Valuation: Indosolar is a relatively new entrant to the solar PV business Valuation: and is yet to demonstrate its capabilities in managing raw material and other Promoters Group 61.8% manufacturing costs. In its initial year of operations (FY2010), the company incurred MF/Banks/Indian FIs/FIIs/Public & Others 38.2% losses of over Rs66cr on sales of ~ Rs113cr. Total capacity, as on date, is 160MW. Annual production for FY2011 is expected to be ~ 90-100MW translating into sales revenues of ~Rs.600cr. Despite having low capacity utilisation, Indosolar plans to add a third line of 100MW capacity at a capital cost of over Rs337cr. Post the ramp up in capacities by FY2012, Indosolar would emerge as one of the leading Indian manufacturers of PV solar cells, which would enable it to exploit the opportunities unfolding in the Indian solar PV space. We believe that though the robust order book of ~ Rs1,012cr provides revenue visibility in the medium term, there is uncertainty on EBIDTA and profitability margins embedded in the current order backlog. Moreover, over 80% of the order book is derived from the European markets where the declining FIT has the potential to trigger downward pricing pressures, going forward. Given the volatile global demand for PV products and the company's limited operating history, ascribing a valuation multiple to Indosolar seems challenging at this point of time. P/BV seems Perinchery John Perinchery to be the most conservative tool on which companies like Indosolar can be valued +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 347 vis-a-vis its global peers. At the lower price band of Rs29/share, the implied P/BV Email: john.perinchery@angeltrade.com would be ~ 1.9x FY2011E compared to the average P/BV of 1.0x for its global peers. On a EV/Sales basis, Indosolar is projected to trade at ~ 2.5x FY2011 Hemang Thaker estimates compared to its global peers who trade at ~ 1.1x CY2010 estimates. +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 342 Hence, we recommend an Avoid on the IPO. IPO. hemang.thaker@angeltrade.com Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
  • 2. Indosolar | IPO Note Company Background Indosolar manufactures poly-crystalline SPV cells from silicon wafers utilising crystalline silicon SPV cell technology. The company's products are primarily sold to the module manufacturers on a B2B platform, who in turn supply the completed modules to the system integrators for its final assembly in the solar PV installations for grid and off-grid (roof top) applications. Indosolar's clientele are spread across the domestic market as well as markets in Europe, Spain, Japan, Asia, Canada and USA. Exhibit 1: SPV Value chain Indosolar Poly -silicon Ingot Cell Module Solar Installation/ Production Wafering intergrator Production production Assembly Distribution Source: Company RHP Operations commenced backed by robust order book: Indosolar commenced the manufacture of SPV cells from its first line of 80MW capacity in July 2009 and commissioned an identical second line of another 80MW capacity in March 2010. As on date, the company has total capacity of 160MW. As per the company's RHP it has , been able to achieve a run-rate of ~ 6MW/month in the last four months (April- July 2010) despite having a monthly operational capacity of over 13MW. Order book, as of July 31, 2010, stood at Rs1,012cr (~170MW of SPV cells). Going ahead, to gear up to meet increasing demand for SPV products and to enhance scale, Indosolar plans to increase its annual manufacturing capacity to ~ 260MW by 2012, with one additional line having annual manufacturing capacity of 100MW. Exhibit 2: Revenue distribution by Geography (July 09-10) Exhibit 3: Order Backlog as of 31st July 2010 Source: Company RHP Source: Company RHP September 13, 2010 2
  • 3. Indosolar | IPO Note Use of proven technology; tie-up with Schmid: The crystalline silicon SPV cell technology tie-up used by Indosolar to manufacture PV cells has been tested and commercially implemented by major PV players and accounts for more than 93% of global PV manufacturing capacity. The company's production lines have been procured from Schmid, a world leader in PV technology, whose clients include REC and Moser Baer PV. As per the contract, Schmid would provide operational efficiency of 15.5% within six months of commercial production. The tie-up also entails free transfer of any improvement in technology to the company within five years of installation of the facility. Approvals in place for grant of financial incentives: Indosolar is one of the few companies which has received in-principle approval from the Ministry of Communication and Information Technology, Government of India (GoI) for grant of financial incentives of 25% of the total cost as submitted to the GoI under the "Special Incentive Package Scheme" of 2007. Having fulfilled the conditions specified, the company has applied for grant of formal approval in March 2010. September 13, 2010 3
  • 4. Indosolar | IPO Note IPO details Indosolar Ltd. will be accessing the capital market with an initial public offering (IPO) of Rs357cr through the 100% book building process. The IPO price band has been fixed between Rs29 and Rs32 per equity share of face value Rs10 each. The issue opens on September 13, 2010, and closes on September 15, 2010. Exhibit 4: Shareholding Pattern Shareholders Pre-Issue Pre re-Issue Post Issue Post no. of % of no. of % of Equity shares Eq. capital Equity shares Eq. capital Promoters: A) Promoters: Mr. Hulas Rahul Gupta 80,385,494 37.9 80,385,494 24.0 Mr. Bhushan Kumar Gupta 56,500,001 26.6 56,500,001 16.9 Sub-Total Sub- 136,885,495 64.6 136,885,495 40.8 Promoter Group : Greenlite Lighting Corporation 70,114,500 33.1 70,114,500 20.9 Ms. Priya Desh Gupta 1 Neg 1 Neg Ms. Abha Gupta 1 Neg 1 Neg Sub-Total Sub- 70,114,502 33.1 70,114,502 20.9 Total (Promoters) (Promoters) 206,999,997 97.6 206,999,997 61.8 B) Others: Mr. Anand Kumar Agarwal 1 Neg 1 Neg Mr. Gurbaksh Singh Vohra 1 Neg 1 Neg Mr. Atul Kumar Mittal 1 Neg 1 Neg Brand Equity Treaties Limited 1,400,000 0.7 1,400,000 0.4 Schmid Singapore Pte. Ltd. 3,640,579 1.7 3,640,579 1.1 Total (Non Promoters) Promoters) 5,040,582 2.4 5,040,582 1.5 Total Pre-Issue Share Capital Pre re-Issue 212,040,579 100.0 212,040,579 63.3 C) Public (pursuant to the Issue) 123,103,448 36.7 Total Post-Issue Share Capital Post ost-Issue 335,144,027 100.0 Source: Company RHP Angel Research; Note: Fresh Equity offering calculated at lower price band of Rs 29/share. , Exhibit 5: Objects of the Issue Amt. deployed Estimated (as on Estimated schedule Particulars (Rs cr) Cost July 31 '10) FY2011 FY2012 Setting up of line 3 337 - 270 67 General corporate purposes - Total 337 Source: Company RHP September 13, 2010 4
  • 5. Indosolar | IPO Note Recommendation rationale Heavily dependent on government subsidies: The high cost of solar PV installations makes it necessary for the industry to be heavily dependent on the government subsidies. When the upfront system costs are factored into the cost per KW, the cost of solar power substantially exceeds the cost of power supplied by the electric utility grid in almost all locations. As a result, the national and local governmental bodies in many countries provide subsidies and economic incentives in the form of FIT, rebates, tax credits and other incentives to the distributors, system integrators and manufacturers of solar power products to promote the use of solar energy in on-grid applications and reduce dependence on other forms of energy. Going forward, the political/market changes may result in significant reductions or eliminations of subsidies or economic incentives, such as a more accelerated reduction of FIT than planned. German subsidies would decline at 5-6.5% pa, while Italy is contemplating FIT to decline by 6% every four months in 2011 and a further 6% in the two years thereafter. The Spanish market, which was the largest for PV products during 2009, had already collapsed on account of the subsidy decline for budget-tightening purposes. Thus, the subsidy cuts across the globe are expected to adversely impact the new solar PV installations and result in renewed bout of pricing pressure. Risk of technological obsolescence: The solar PV industry is characterised by rapidly changing technology in both the process as well as the input raw materials, necessitating companies to regularly invest in newer technologies. Inability to foresee such changes accurately and upgrade by incurring the capital expenditure would result in technological obsolescence. Moreover, to remain competitive, companies need to continuously invest heavily in research and development. Volatile input prices may impact profitability: Prices of poly-silicon wafers, the key raw material for manufacturing SPV, have been volatile during the past many years. Raw materials constitute ~ 89% of the total manufacturing cost. Increase in the poly-silicon prices have in the past resulted in the wafer prices increasing. The average long-term supply contract price of poly-silicon increased between 2006 and 2008. However, in the late 2008 and 2009, newly available poly-silicon supply and sluggish global solar power market growth resulted in excess supply of poly-silicon, which created a downward pressure on the poly-silicon price. According to solar buzz, spot prices of solar grade poly-silicon fell rapidly from US $450-470/kg to US $150-130/kg in the first quarter of 2009 and thereafter drifted to the US $55-60/kg range by end of 2009. Financials impacted by high manufacturing cost: As at March 31, 2010, Indosolar booked sales revenues of ~ Rs113cr (19.38MW of SPV sold) and incurred manufacturing costs of ~ Rs132cr. Total expenditure including depreciation and interest added up to ~Rs198cr, resulting in a loss of over Rs66cr for FY 2010. Fixed assets as on March 31, 2010 stood at ~ Rs663cr, while the net current assets were at ~ Rs25cr. Debt in the books was at Rs543cr. The resultant net worth of ~Rs144cr translates into a book value of Rs 6.78/ share as against the face value of Rs10. Losses incurred during FY2010 had wiped out ~ 32% of the net worth. September 13, 2010 5
  • 6. Indosolar | IPO Note Industry Overview The solar PV business is primarily driven by market factors including: (a) The government incentives such as "FIT" and "green certificates" for solar power and efforts by countries in the developed and emerging markets to achieve 'grid parity'; (b) Increasing consumer awareness for alternatives sources of energy, amid growing concerns in relation to global warming and extinction of conventional fuels; and (c) Growing industry demand for solar power and desire for energy security. The demand for SPV cells is determined by those countries which are driven by solar grid parity and also by the demand for solar modules and other downstream solar power products, which in turn is affected significantly by the government subsidies and economic incentives in their targeted or potential markets. Government bodies in many countries, most notably Germany, Spain, Italy, the U.S., France, Japan, State of Ontario in Canada, India and China, have provided subsidies and economic incentives to reduce dependency on non-renewable sources of energy. Global scenario: Solar power is one of the popular resources for renewable energy that has been actively pursued by many countries especially in Europe. The increase in its popularity is reflected by the increase in total annual production of crystalline silicon cells and thin film PV cells to a consolidated level of 7.30GW in 2009, five times the level in 2005. Demand from countries such as Spain, Germany, South Korea, Italy and United States was, to a great extent, responsible for the spectacular growth. In 2009, there were ten markets delivering more than 100MW of market demand, with Germany alone accounting for 53% of the world market. Exhibit 6: PV Market Segmentation (MW) Exhibit 7: Cell manufacturing capacity (%) 100 4 100 7 9 7 7 7 8 8 6 7 90 8 8 11 17 8 10 80 7 80 8 8 10 20 70 8 24 60 60 26 20 12 22 37 8 (%) (%) 50 7 40 52 40 9 29 30 9 53 26 51 20 20 26 27 29 11 10 6 0 0 57 56 47 31 2009 Germany ROE ROW USA Japan China Europe Japan ROW USA Source: Company RHP Source: Company RHP September 13, 2010 6
  • 7. Indosolar | IPO Note Europe - Driver of global PV market: Spain overtook Germany to become the largest PV market in 2008, achieving market size of 2.46GW registering substantial growth of 285%. However, post the collapse of the Spanish markets, in 2009 Germany regained leadership as the largest PV market with a market size of 3.87GW, growing by 109%. Excluding Germany, the rest of the global market fell from 4.22GW in 2008 to 3.43GW in 2009, a decline of 19%, which was largely a result of the fall off in Spain. Excluding Germany and Spain, rest of the global market grew by a strong 89% from 1.76GW in 2008 to 3.33GW in 2009. Italy was the second largest market at 0.62GW followed by the USA at 0.49GW and Japan at 0.48GW. Subsidy cuts and global slowdown impacts growth momentum: The high growth witnessed in the global solar photovoltaic industry, limited only by supply capability, came to an end in the fourth quarter of 2008. For an industry whose end-market is largely dependent on the government incentives, changes in the government policy in Spain coupled with the global economic turndown limited the financing options in turn interrupting the growth momentum. September 13, 2010 7
  • 8. Indosolar | IPO Note Domestic scenario Untapped potential: India is both densely populated and has high solar insolation, which provides an ideal combination for solar power. In 2008, India's solar PV market recorded 20% growth to 36MW in annual installations. Despite the modest growth from 2007, there are indications that this could indeed be a precursor for far stronger growth in the years to come, led by large ground mounted on-grid installations. In 2008, majority of India's solar market remained in the off-grid segments led by widespread rural electrification programs, street lighting and remote banking/ATM projects, as well as industrial applications such as solar-powered telecom base stations, railway signaling and defence monitoring in the border areas. Growth in the off-grid sector was not just witnessed in India's rural countryside, but also in the urban areas, with increasing sales of solar stand-alone systems providing an alternative to diesel generators to back up the unstable and unreliable grid. Policies in place to nurture growth: The policy roadmap required to promote the growth of solar power industry in India, the "Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission" (the "Solar Mission") was approved by the GoI on November 19, 2009. The objective of the "Solar Mission" is to establish India as a global leader in solar energy, by creating the policy conditions for its diffusion across the country as quickly as possible. The "Solar Mission" will adopt a three-phase approach, spanning the remaining period of the Eleventh Plan and first year of the Twelfth Plan (up to 2012-13) as Phase 1, the remaining four years of the Twelfth Plan (2013-17) as Phase 2 and the Thirteenth Plan (2017-22) as Phase 3. At the end of each Plan, and mid-term during the Twelfth and Thirteenth Plans, there will be an evaluation of progress, review of capacity and targets for subsequent phases, based on emerging cost and technology trends, both domestic and global. The aim would be to protect government from subsidy exposure in case the expected cost reduction does not materialise or is more rapid than expected. The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission ("CERC") has recently issued guidelines for fixing the FIT for purchase of solar power taking into account current cost and technology trends. The CERC Tariff Regulations lay down the normative parameters for determination of tariff for renewable energy sources. The key features of the CERC Tariff Regulations from solar PV perspective are: a) The tariff period for solar PV defined as 25 years; b) Normative debt-equity ratio of 70:30; c) Normative return on equity ("RoE"); d) Pre-tax 19% pa for first 10 years; and e) Pre-tax 24% pa 11th year onwards. A 25-year firm PPA with attractive RoE is expected to make the solar farm business in India lucrative for many players and give the industry the growth that the "Solar Mission" proposes. As per the template form for solar (PV), the leveled tariff at 1,700lakh/MW for solar PV's based on normative numbers laid in the regulation works out to Rs18.44/kWh. The National Tariff Policy, 2006 is also expected to be modified to mandate that the state electricity regulators fix a percentage for purchase of solar power. The solar power purchase obligation for states may start with 0.25% in Phase I and go up to 3% by 2022. September 13, 2010 8
  • 9. Indosolar | IPO Note Solar PV Industry - SWOT Analysis Strengths Abundant worldwide availability of sunlight without geological concerns. Low operation and maintenance cost of PV systems. Weaknesses High capital cost of solar PV systems. The cost per MW for solar PV systems is ~ Rs17cr as compared to Rs5.5 - 6cr for wind energy. Highly dependent on government subsidies and incentives to be economically feasible. Feed in tariffs worked out by CERC based on normative numbers is Rs18.44/ kWh. Threats Process and raw material technologies keep changing rapidly resulting in risks of obsolescence for the existing manufacturing facilities. Economic slowdown and tariff subsidy cuts would negatively impact growth of solar PV systems. Opportunities Rising energy and oil prices, together with increased environmental awareness would accelerate efforts for increased use of solar power. Strong focus on improving PV technologies would result in lower costs in future. September 13, 2010 9
  • 10. Indosolar | IPO Note Outlook and Valuation Indosolar is a relatively new entrant to the solar PV business and is yet to demonstrate its capabilities in managing raw material and other manufacturing costs. In its initial year of operations (FY2010), the company incurred losses of over Rs66cr on sales of ~ Rs113cr. Total capacity, as on date, is 160MW. Annual production for FY2011 is expected to be ~ 90-100MW translating into sales revenues of ~Rs.600cr. Despite having low capacity utilisation, Indosolar plans to add a third line of 100MW capacity at a capital cost of over Rs337cr. Post the ramp up in capacities by FY2012, Indosolar would emerge as one of the leading Indian manufacturers of PV solar cells, which would enable it to exploit the opportunities unfolding in the Indian solar PV space. We believe that though the robust order book of ~ Rs1,012cr provides revenue visibility in the medium term, there is uncertainty on EBIDTA and profitability margins embedded in the current order backlog. Moreover, over 80% of the order book is derived from the European markets where the declining FIT has the potential to trigger downward pricing pressures, going forward. Given the volatile global demand for PV products and the company's limited operating history, ascribing a valuation multiple to Indosolar seems challenging at this point of time. P/BV seems to be the most conservative tool on which companies like Indosolar can be valued vis-a-vis its global peers. At the lower price band of Rs29/share, the implied P/BV would be ~ 1.9x FY2011E compared to the average P/BV of 1.0x for its global peers. On a EV/Sales basis, Indosolar is projected to trade at ~ 2.5x FY2011 estimates compared to its global peers who trade at ~ 1.1x CY2010 estimates. Hence, we recommend an Avoid on the IPO. IPO. Exhibit 8: Peer Comparison - Indian Mkt Cap P/E(x) EV/EBITDA(x) EV/EBITDA(x) P/BV(x) P/BV(x) EV/Sales(x) ( USD mn) CY10E CY11E CY12E CY10E CY11E CY12E CY10E CY11E CY12E CY10E CY11E CY12E Suntech Power 1,616 13.8 10.5 8.9 7.9 7.1 6.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 Sharp Corp 11,075 19.0 14.5 12.5 4.1 4.1 4.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 Q-Cells Se 764 - 21.8 14.6 8.9 7.1 6.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 Ja Solar Holdings 1,221 7.2 7.1 4.9 4.9 4.5 3.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 Kyocera Corp 17,438 14.6 13.9 13.2 5.8 5.6 5.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 Trina Solar Ltd-Spon 2,175 10.5 9.9 10.1 6.7 6.8 5.7 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.0 Sunpower Corp 1,165 8.7 7.0 7.1 6.9 5.5 5.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 Gintech Energy Corp 927 8.5 9.6 7.2 7.7 7.9 5.5 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.9 Renewable Energy Corp 3,124 42.7 24.3 17.8 11.0 6.5 6.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 2.3 1.7 1.5 Average 15.6 13.2 10.7 7.1 6.1 5.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.7 Source: Bloomberg estimates September 13, 2010 10
  • 11. Indosolar | IPO Note Restated Profit & Loss Statement Particulars (Rs cr) FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 Net Sales - - - - 113 Other operating income - - - - - Total operating income - - - - 113 Inc (dec) in stock - - - - (30) Manufacturing costs - - - - 161 Personnel - - - 5 8 Selling and Administrative expenses 0 0 0 4 11 Others 0 - - - - Total Expenditure 0 0 0 8 152 EBITDA EBITDA (0) (0) (0) (8) (39) (% of Net Sales) - - - - (35) Depreciation& Amortisation 0 0 0 0 19 EBIT (0) (0) (0) (9) (58) (% of Net Sales) - - - - (1) Interest & other Charges 0 0 0 0 27 Other Income - - - 1 19 Others - - - - - Recurring PBT (0) (0) (0) (8) (66) Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - PBT (reported) (0) (0) (0) (8) (66) Tax: current tax - - - - - Fringe benefit tax - - - 0 - Wealth Tax - - - 0 0 PAT (reported) (0) (0) (0) (8) (66) P/L brough forward from previous year - (0) (0) (1) (15) Loss carried forward on amalgamtion - - - (6) - P/L carried forward to Balance sheet (0) (0) (1) (15) (81) September 13, 2010 11
  • 12. Indosolar | IPO Note Restated Balance Sheet Particulars (Rs cr) FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 0 0 0 0 208 Equity shares to be issued pursuant to the scheme of amalgamation - - - 189 - Reserves & Surplus (0) (0) (1) (15) (77) Share Application money - - - - 15 Funds Shareholders Funds (0) (0) (1) 175 146 Minority Interest - - - - - Total Loans 1 2 - 245 544 Deferred Tax Liability - - - - - Total Liabilities 1 2 (1) 420 690 APPLICATION OF FUNDS APPLICATION Gross Block 3 3 3 71 673 Less: Acc. Depreciation 0 0 0 1 20 Net Block 3 2 2 70 653 Capital Work-in-Progress - - 3 363 10 Goodwill - - - - - Investments - - - - - Current Assets - 0 0 41 138 Cash - 0 0 31 24 Inventories - - - 3 77 Debtors - - - - 23 Loans & Advances - - - 7 14 Current liabilities 1 1 6 54 114 Net Current Assets (1) (1) (6) (13) 25 Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - 3 Total Assets 1 2 (1) 420 690 September 13, 2010 12
  • 13. Indosolar | IPO Note Restated Cash Flow Statement Particulars (Rs cr) FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 Cash flow from operating activities Net Profit/ (loss) after tax, as restated (0) (0) (0) (8) (66) Adjustment for : Provision for tax - - - 0 0 Depreciation and amortisation 0 0 0 0 19 Interest income - - - (1) (0) Interest expenses 0 0 0 0 25 Unrealised forex (gain)/loss - - - 0 (5) (Loss)/profit Operating (Loss)/profit before changes in working capital (0) (0) (0) (8) (27) (Inc)/ dec in sundry debtors - - - - (23) (Inc)/ dec in inventories - - - (3) (74) (Inc)/ dec in loans and advances - - - 37 (7) (Inc)/ dec in curr. lia and prov. 0 0 5 (4) 84 Net changes in working capital (0) (0) 5 23 (48) Taxes paid - - - (0) (0) Cash generated from operations (0) (0) 5 22 (49) Cash flow from investing activities: Inc (dec) in capital creditors 1 (0) (0) 6 (4) Additions to fixed assets (3) - (3) (81) (227) Interest received - - - 1 1 Net cash from (used in) investing activities (1) (0) (3) (74) (229) Cash flow from financing activities Issue of shares 0 - - 4 19 Premium on shares - - - - 4 Share application money - - - - 15 Borrowings - short term 1 1 (2) - - Borrowings - unsecured loan - - - - 7 Term loan - - - 13 214 Repayment of term loan - - - (14) - Proceeds from working capital loan - - - - 34 Proceeds from short term loan - - - - 25 Share issue expenses - - - - (3) Interest paid - (0) (0) (8) (43) Net cash from (used in) financing activities 1 0 (2) (6) 272 Net increase/(decrease) in cash and cash equivalents - 0 0 (58) (7) Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of the year - - 0 0 31 Cash and cash equivalents acquired on amalgamation - - - 88 - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year - 0 0 31 24 September 13, 2010 13
  • 14. Indosolar Disclaimer This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
  • 15. Indosolar Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Research Team Fundamental: Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical sarabjit@angeltrade.com Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com Vaishali Jajoo Automobile vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure, Real Estate shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com Anand Shah FMCG , Media anand.shah@angeltrade.com Deepak Pareek Oil & Gas deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com Sushant Dalmia Pharmaceutical sushant.dalmia@angeltrade.com Rupesh Sankhe Cement, Power rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com Param Desai Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping paramv.desai@angeltrade.com Sageraj Bariya Fertiliser, Mid-cap sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com Viraj Nadkarni Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap virajm.nadkarni@angeltrade.com Paresh Jain Metals & Mining pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com Amit Rane Banking amitn.rane@angeltrade.com John Perinchery Capital Goods john.perinchery@angeltrade.com Srishti Anand IT, Telecom srishti.anand@angeltrade.com Jai Sharda Mid-cap jai.sharda@angeltrade.com Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap sharanb.lillaney@angeltrade.com Amit Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas) amit.vora@angeltrade.com V Srinivasan Research Associate (Cement, Power) v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com Mihir Salot Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com Chitrangda Kapur Research Associate (FMCG, Media) chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com Vibha Salvi Research Associate (IT, Telecom) vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com Pooja Jain Research Associate (Metals & Mining) pooja.j@angeltrade.com Yaresh Kothari Research Associate (Automobile) yareshb.kothari@angeltrade.com Shrinivas Bhutda Research Associate (Banking) shrinivas.bhutda@angeltrade.com Sreekanth P .V.S Research Associate (FMCG, Media) sreekanth.s@angeltrade.com Hemang Thaker Research Associate (Capital Goods) hemang.thaker@angeltrade.com Nitin Arora Research Associate (Infrastructure, Real Estate) nitin.arora@angeltrade.com Technicals: Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst shardul.kulkarni@angeltrade.com Mileen Vasudeo Technical Analyst vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com Derivatives: Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com Jaya Agarwal Derivative Analyst jaya.agarwal@angeltrade.com Institutional Sales Team: Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales mayuresh.joshi@angeltrade.com Abhimanyu Sofat AVP - Institutional Sales abhimanyu.sofat@angeltrade.com Nitesh Jalan Sr. Manager niteshk.jalan@angeltrade.com Pranav Modi Sr. Manager pranavs.modi@angeltrade.com Sandeep Jangir Sr. Manager sandeepp.jangir@angeltrade.com Ganesh Iyer Sr. Manager ganeshb.Iyer@angeltrade.com Jay Harsora Sr. Dealer jayr.harsora@angeltrade.com Meenakshi Chavan Dealer meenakshis.chavan@angeltrade.com Gaurang Tisani Dealer gaurangp.tisani@angeltrade.com Production Team: Bharathi Shetty Research Editor bharathi.shetty@angeltrade.com Simran Kaur Research Editor simran.kaur@angeltrade.com Bharat Patil Production bharat.patil@angeltrade.com Dilip Patel Production dilipm.patel@angeltrade.com Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302