The market was volatile as the Sensex and Nifty closed up 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. Select frontline stocks like Tata Steel and Bharti Airtel gained 2-3% while others like ITC and BHEL lost 0-1%. Midcaps such as EIH and Aurobindo Pharma rose 4-11% while others fell. The government introduced the Direct Taxes Code bill. NTPC signed a pact to set up two power projects in Bangladesh. RIL acquired a 14.12% stake in EIH. Pantaloon Retail reported a 50% rise in 4Q sales and a 170.7% rise in 4Q profit.
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Market Outlook - August 31,2010
1. Market Outlook
India Research
August 31, 2010
Dealer’s Diary Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Volatility was the order of the day as the market swung between gains and BSE Sensex 0.2% 33.7 18,032
losses after the government tabled the much-awaited Direct Taxes Code bill in Nifty 0.1% 6.8 5,415
the Lok Sabha. The market surged in early trade, tracking gains in Asian stocks MID CAP 0.1% 6.3 7,641
and gained strength in mid-morning trade. However, it came off the lower level SMALL CAP -0.1% (4.5) 9,636
in afternoon trade and regained the positive zone after turning negative for a BSE HC 0.2% 13.2 5,550
brief period in mid-afternoon trade. Immense volatility was witnessed in the last
BSE PSU 0.2% 22.4 9,717
one hour of trade as the Sensex alternatively swung between gains and losses.
BANKEX 0.1% 8.5 12,225
The Sensex and Nifty closed up by 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. BSE mid-cap
AUTO 0.4% 31.4 8,741
index closed up by 0.1%, while the small-cap index closed down by 0.1%.
METAL 1.5% 217.6 15,128
Among the front liners, Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, ONGC, Hindalco Industries and
Reliance Infrastructure gained 2–3%, while ITC, BHEL, TCS, L&T and Infosys lost OIL & GAS 0.3% 25.9 10,118
0–1%. Among mid caps, EIH, KGN Industries, Pipavav Shipyard, Baja Electricals BSE IT -0.6% (34.4) 5,374
and Aurobindo Pharma gained 4–11%, while Pfizer, HCL Infosystems, FDC, Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
MVL and State Bank of Travancore lost 3–4%. Dow Jones -1.4% (140.9) 10,010
NASDAQ -1.6% (33.7) 2,120
Markets Today
FTSE 0.0% 0.0 5,202
The trend deciding level for the day is 18070 / 5425 levels. If NIFTY trades Nikkei 1.8% 158.2 9,149
above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a Hang Seng 0.7% 139.9 20,737
further rally up to 18179 – 18326 / 5460 - 5504 levels. However, if NIFTY
Straits Times 0.6% 18.3 2,957
trades below 18070 / 5425 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may
Shanghai Com 1.6% 41.9 2,653
correct up to 17923 – 17813 / 5381 - 5346 levels.
Indices S2 S1 R1 R2 Indian ADRs Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
SENSEX 17,813 17,923 18,179 18,326 Infosys -1.2% (0.7) $57.3
Wipro -1.0% (0.1) $13.0
NIFTY 5,346 5,381 5,460 5,504
Satyam 0.2% 0.0 $4.5
News Analysis ICICI Bank -1.5% (0.6) $40.9
HDFC Bank -2.0% (3.2) $159.3
Government introduces DTC bill in Parliament
Jagran Prakashan- Management Meet Update
Advances / Declines BSE NSE
NTPC signs pact with Bangladesh to set up 2 power projects
Advances 1,331 556
RIL acquires 14.12% stake in EIH
Declines 1,647 805
Result Review: Pantaloon Retail
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page. Unchanged 90 44
Net Inflows (August 27, 2010)
Rs cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTD Volumes (Rs cr)
FII 3,652 3,496 157 10,407 58,348 BSE 4,437
MFs 499 433 66 (2,826) (15,449) NSE 10,575
FII Derivatives (August 30, 2010)
Open
Rs cr Purch Sales Net
Interest
Index Futures 1,771 1,351 420 15,105
Stock Futures 1,083 776 307 33,900
Gainers / Losers
Gainers Losers
Price chg Price chg
Company Company
(Rs) (%) (Rs) (%)
Power Grid 109 4.2 Patni Computer 464 (14.5)
Great Offshore 386 3.9 Hind Const. 58 (3.3)
Aurobindo Phrm. 1,051 3.9 Bajaj Hinds 114 (2.8)
Tata Steel 528 3.5 HCL Tech. 393 (2.4) 1
PFC 352 3.2 Siemens 700 (2.2)
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
2. Market Outlook | India Research
Government introduces DTC bill in Parliament
Government introduced the Direct Tax Code (DTC) bill in the Parliament yesterday. The
code is slated to come in force from 2012.
Following are some of the salient features of the bill:
• The bill proposes to increase the exemption limit for individuals from Rs1.6lakh to
Rs2lakhs. Accordingly, the slabs have also been reworked. Those with a taxable
income of Rs2lakh–5lakh will be taxed at 10%; those in the Rs5lakh–10lakh bracket
will have to pay 20%; while taxable income of over Rs10lakh will attract a 30% levy.
• Exemption on saving instruments, which were proposed to be withdrawn, has been
retained. In fact, there have been a few additions to the list such as investment in the
New Pension Scheme.
• Under the new regime, companies will pay 30% corporation tax, including cess and
surcharge, instead of the present combined levy of 33.2%. Besides, the tax rate for
foreign companies will now be the same as domestic companies.
• MAT will be levied on 20% book profits and credit will be available for 15 years.
• SEZ developers and units operating in the zones will be included under the MAT
regime, where a 20% tax on book profits is proposed.
• Existing SEZ units starting operations before March 31, 2014, shall be eligible to claim
profit-based tax holiday.
We will be shortly coming out with a detailed note on the same shortly.
Jagran Prakashan – Management Meet Update
We conducted a concall with Jagran Prakashan’s (JPL) management (CFO – R K Agarwal).
Following are the key takeaways of the call:
FY2011 guidance of 18% ad growth intact, circulation to be muted: Management
reiterated its guidance of ~18% growth in ad revenue in FY2011, contributed by higher
number of colour ads and absorption of the ad-rate hike (~8–9%). JPL registered ad
revenue growth of 18% in July and 27% till date in August 2010 and expects 2QFY2011 to
deliver positive surprise. However, circulation revenue is expected to remain muted due to
rising competition (cover price cuts).
Non-publishing divisions to record strong growth in FY2011: OOH broke even in
1QFY2011 and is expected to register revenue of ~Rs60cr (Rs48cr). The event
management business is estimated to grow by 40% yoy in FY2011 to Rs32cr (Rs23cr).
Digital media is expected to grow multi-fold and garner top-line of Rs8cr–10cr in
FY2011E.
Aggressive growth plans for i-Next and City Plus: i-Next and City Plus, the three-year old
brands, have been performing satisfactorily. Management has guided for 20% and 100%
yoy growth in i-Next and City Plus from the current revenue of ~Rs40cr and ~Rs4cr,
respectively.
Entry of DB Corp. into Jharkhand not a major threat: Dainik Jagran’s cover price has been
slashed from Rs4 to Rs2 post the entry of DB Corp. in Ranchi. Consequent to the cover
price cut, Jharkhand’s circulation spiked to ~50% yoy to 2.3lakh copies (1.45lakh copies).
However, management maintains that it does not see DB Corp. as a major threat owing to
the relatively smaller size of the Jharkhand market (~5% contribution to JPL’s revenue).
Outlook and valuation: With Blackstone’s investment of Rs225cr (awaiting FIPB approval,
likely by 3QFY2011) and wider portfolio (including Mid-Day publications), we believe JPL
is well poised to benefit from steady growth in the print media. While we have not factored
in the Mid-Day deal (likely to be integrated with JPL by 3QFY2011), we believe that the
deal is likely to be earnings accretive by ~2–3% in FY2011E. We reiterate a Buy rating on
the stock with a Target Price of Rs154, based on a P/E multiple of 20x FY2012E earnings.
August 31, 2010 2
3. Market Outlook | India Research
NTPC signs pact with Bangladesh to set up two power projects
NTPC has signed an MoU with Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) for setting
up two 1,320MW each coal-based power projects at Chittagong and Khulna in
Bangladesh. The power plants are likely to come up at an investment of approximately
Rs13,200cr and are likely to be installed on a 50:50 equity basis. The projects will be
operated by NTPC and will run on imported coal. NTPC will also provide training and
development to employees of BPDB and help in the enhancement of productivity and
efficiency of its existing power stations. Bangladesh has a power generation capacity of
5,000MW, of which 83% is gas-based. However, in the coming years, Bangladesh wants
to increase the share of its coal-based power plants, for which it needs technology from
India. A power plant, in a JV with NTPC, will help Bangladesh to use its technology.
At the CMP, NTPC is trading at 2.3x and 2.2x its FY2011E and FY2012E book value,
respectively. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock with a Target Price of Rs230.
RIL acquires 14.12% stake in EIH
RIL yesterday announced that it has acquired a 14.12% stake in EIH Ltd. The acquisition
was made through Reliance Industries Investment and Holding Pvt. Ltd., a wholly owned
subsidiary of RIL. RIL bought the shares from Oberoi Hotels Pvt. Ltd. and certain other
promoters of EIH Ltd. at a total cost of about Rs1,021cr. The deal works out to Rs184 per
share, while the stock ended yesterday at Rs150.7 per share on the BSE. However, post the
stake sale, there will be no change in the management, operation or control of EIH Ltd.
Earlier, Analajit Singh of Max India, who also holds under 5% stake in EIH Ltd., was
interested in hiking his share. However, talks failed over differences in valuations. Even
ITC, which holds 14.98% stake in EIH Ltd., declined to comment on the deal. However, it
reiterated that it will not make a hostile bid for EIH Ltd. RIL believes that EIH Ltd. has
excellent future prospects as the Oberoi family has developed the Oberoi Hotels brand into
a premier brand in the luxury hospitality sector. RIL is continuously scouting for newer
ventures to deploy its surplus cash, and this is a further step in that direction.
We await more information to ascertain whether the investment is a business investment or
a mere financial investment. Given the relatively smaller size of the deal, the same is
unlikely to impact the company’s valuation. We maintain a Buy rating on RIL with a
Target Price of Rs1,260.
Result Review
Pantaloon Retail – 4QFY2010 and FY2010
Pantaloon Retail (PRIL) declared its 4QFY2010 and FY2010 results. PRIL’s reported core
retail earnings for 4QFY2010 and FY2010 are not strictly comparable on a yoy basis,
considering the merger of Home Solutions Retail (HSRIL). As per the company’s reported
numbers, during 4QFY2010, the company’s core retail business posted 50% growth in net
sales to Rs2494cr (Rs1663cr), driven by Same Store Sales (SSS) growth of 11.5%, 19.4%
and 56.9% in value retailing, lifestyle retailing and home retailing, respectively. On the PAT
front, the company reported 170.7% yoy growth in 4QFY2010 to Rs98.8cr (Rs36.5cr).
For FY2010, PRIL on a standalone basis posted 41% yoy growth in net sales to Rs8926cr
(Rs6342cr). On the EBITDA and PAT fronts, the company reported growth of 23% to
Rs819.1cr (Rs668.4cr) and 64% to Rs230.2cr (Rs140.6cr), respectively. Management is
hosting an earnings call on August 31, 2010, for providing further clarity on the
company’s results. We might revise our earnings estimates and rating post the
conference call.
August 31, 2010 3
4. Market Outlook | India Research
Economic and Political News
Government approves 1000MW grid-connected solar power projects
India largest recipient of World Bank loans in 2009–10
MoEF expands terms of reference of Posco committee
Corporate News
PNB raises fixed deposit rate by 25bp
RCOM has appointed Prashant Gokarn as the head for its 3G business operations
EdServ to raise Rs12cr via warrants issue
ACIL enters into contract farming for 173 acres in Gujarat
Mundra Port begins operations at Gujarat terminal
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Events for the day
Aftek Dividends, Results
Birla Precision Dividends, Results
Coral Lab Dividends, Results
Maharashtra Seam Dividends, Results
Mcnally Bharat Results
Precision Wires Dividend
Sayaji Hotels Results
August 31, 2010 4
5. Market Outlook | India Research
Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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