1. Market Outlook
India Research
April 13, 2010
Dealer’s Diary Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
The benchmark indices turned highly volatile as bulls and bears remained BSE Sensex -0.5% (80.1) 17,853
indecisive post reports of the market regulators sparring over Unit Linked Nifty -0.4% (22.1) 5,340
Insurance Products. The markets opened in green but slipped sharply soon MID CAP -0.1% (7.1) 7,078
following cues from major Asian markets. However the markets soon recovered SMALL CAP 0.3% 28.5 9,092
sharply and managed to trade in positive at the end of afternoon session. BSE HC -0.5% (28.0) 5,320
Volatility set in as markets fell in the final session and closed with ~0.5% losses. BSE PSU -0.8% (75.2) 9,054
The Sensex and Nifty ended with losses of 0.5% and 0.4% respectively, while
BANKEX -0.8% (91.7) 10,805
BSE Mid-cap and Small-cap indices were mixed with loss of 0.1% and gains of
AUTO -0.9% (66.5) 7,749
0.3% respectively. Among the front-liners, Hero Honda, Sun Pharma, HUL, ITC
METAL -0.2% (43.2) 18,302
and Tata Steel were up by 1-2%, while Tata Motors, L&T, M&M, Sterlite and
OIL & GAS -0.3% (34.3) 10,395
NTPC were down by 2-3%. In the Mid-cap segment, HMT, Balrampur Chini,
Ruchi Soya, Bombay Dyeing and AstraZeneca were up by 5-7%, while Essar BSE IT 0.2% 10.3 5,339
Shipping & Ports, REI Six Ten, Allahabad Bank, Central Bank and Sobha
developers were down by 3-5%. Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Dow Jones 0.1% 8.6 11,006
Markets Today NASDAQ 0.2% 3.8 2,458
FTSE 0.1% 6.7 5,778
The trend deciding level for the day is 17888 / 5349 levels. NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further Nikkei 0.4% 47.6 11,254
rally up to 17960 – 18067 / 5373 – 5406 levels. However, if NIFTY trades Hang Seng -0.3% (70.3) 22,138
below 17888 / 5349 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct Straits Times 0.2% 5.2 2,977
up to 17781 – 17709 / 5316 – 5292 levels. Shanghai Com -0.5% (16.1) 3,129
Indices S2 S1 R1 R2 Indian ADRs Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
SENSEX 17,709 17,781 17,960 18,067 Infosys 0.8% 0.5 $61.4
NIFTY 5,292 5,316 5,373 5,406 Wipro -0.7% (0.2) $23.5
Satyam -0.4% (0.0) $5.5
News Analysis ICICI Bank -3.7% (1.7) $43.3
Simplex Infrastructure - Company Update HDFC Bank 0.1% 0.1 $147.8
IVRCL bags three orders worth Rs832cr
Advances / Declines BSE NSE
HCC secures order worth Rs608cr
Advances 1,566 644
Result Preview - Infosys 4QFY10
Declines 1,329 674
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page.
Unchanged 79 35
Net Inflows (Apr 09, 2010)
Rs cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTD Volumes (Rs cr)
FII 2,631 2,373 258 3,868 23,679 BSE 4,275
MFs 464 828 (364) (644) (6,462) NSE 12,384
FII Derivatives (Apr 12, 2010)
Open
Rs cr Purch Sales Net
Interest
Index Futures 985 972 13 14,050
Stock Futures 1,064 1,415 (351) 29,611
Gainers / Losers
Gainers Losers
Company Price (Rs) Chg (%) Company Price (Rs) Chg (%)
Apollo Hosp 663.6 11.9 Great Offshore 530 -6.6
Ispat Ind. 22.3 7.8 Amtek Auto 176 -3.4
Castrol India 609.3 6.2 Dr Reddys Lab 1,147 -3.3
Reliance Power 154.2 4.9 Glaxo Pharma 1,594 -3.2
Sintex Ind. 269.0 4.8 Cipla 335 -3.0
1
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2. Market Outlook | India Research
Simplex Infrastructure – Company Update
Simplex Infrastructure (SI) has underperformed the BSE Sensex and its peers by ~15% YTD,
primarily on account of poor quarterly performances and a lack of visibility on the order
book front. However, we believe that it has entered into a comfortable valuation zone
(lower than its five and three-year average P/E trading bands) and will catch the eye of
investors, given the long-term opportunity in the infra space and with private capex
(forming >50% of SI's business) expected to improve in the second half CY2010 (given the
excellent IIP numbers). We are expecting a 28.2% Earnings CAGR over FY2010-12E,
owing to strong Top-line growth (CAGR of 19.2%) and stable EBITDA margins. We have
assigned a Target P/E multiple of 14x (at a ~20% discount to its three and five-year
average) on its FY2012E EPS, which implies a potential upside of 24% from current levels.
Therefore, we reiterate a Buy on SI, with a Target Price of Rs586.
IVRCL bags three orders worth Rs832cr
IVRCL Infrastructures and Projects Ltd (IVRCL) has bagged three orders amounting to
Rs832cr. The projects are spread across regions of Mumbai, Gurgaon and Tamilnadu and
are expected to be finished within a time frame ranging between 30-48months. The
Outstanding Order Book of IVRCL stands at around Rs18,800cr or 3.2x its FY2010E
revenues. We have valued IVRCL on an SOTP basis, valuing its core construction business
at a FY2012E target P/E of 14x, whereas its stake in Hindustan-Dorr Oliver and IVR Prime
have been valued on a MCap basis. At CMP of Rs179, the stock trades at 9.0x FY2012E
and 1.2x FY2012E P/BV on a standalone basis. We maintain a Buy on the Stock with a
Target price of Rs240.
HCC secures order worth Rs608cr
Hindustan Construction (HCC), a leading construction and development company, has
secured order amounting to Rs608cr. The Orders is relating to Reconstruction and
completion of Dry Dock and Associated North and South Wharves at Naval Dockyard,
Mumbai and is to be completed in a time frame of 48months. With accretion of these
orders the outstanding Order Book stands at around Rs17,000cr or 4.6x its FY2010E
revenues. At CMP of Rs143, the stock trades at 13.0x FY2012E and 1.1x FY2012E P/BV on
a standalone basis. In the backdrop of rich valuations we continue to maintain our Neutral
view on the Stock.
Result Preview - Infosys 4QFY10
We expect Infosys to witness 3.1% qoq growth in revenues backed by volumes to
Rs5,919cr in 4QFY10 ahead of its guidance of Rs5,721cr. The EBIDTA margins are
expected to contract by 75 bp on account of strong manpower intake and higher SG&A
spends with improved business environment. The net profit is expected to be up by 2% qoq
to Rs1,613cr. We maintain Buy on the stock.
April 13, 2010 2

3. Market Outlook | India Research
Economic and Political News
Industrial output up 15.1% in Feb’10
RBI allows FIIs to pledge Govt. bonds as collateral for stocks
All-India 3G bid at Rs4,324cr; Delhi, Gujarat sees highest prices
Corporate News
Glenmark settles drug patent row with GSK
Pfizer promoter hikes stake to 70.8%
Retail buyers may get 5% discount on SAIL FPO
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Events for the day
Infosys Dividend, Results
Mastek Results
Essar Oil Results
Blue Dart Results
April 13, 2010 3

4. Market Outlook | India Research
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April 13, 2010 4