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Market Outlook
                                                                                                                              India Research
                                                                                                                                    July 15, 2010

Dealer’s Diary                                                                                     Domestic Indices      Chg (%)       (Pts)   (Close)
The market surged at the onset of the trading session on firm Asian stocks. The                    BSE Sensex             -0.3%      (47.7) 17,938
Sensex and the Nifty scaled 29-month highs. The market pared gains in                              Nifty                  -0.3%      (14.5)     5,386
morning trade. It further trimmed gains in mid-morning trade. The market                           MID CAP                -0.5%      (33.9)     7,355
moved in a narrow range in early afternoon trade. The market came off the                          SMALL CAP              -0.3%      (24.1)     9,370
lower level in afternoon trade after hitting a fresh intraday low. The intraday
                                                                                                   BSE HC                 -0.5%      (29.4)     5,703
recovery proved short-lived, with the Sensex moving into the negative territory in
                                                                                                   BSE PSU                -0.3%      (26.7)     9,466
late trade as European stocks declined and as US index futures pared gains.
                                                                                                   BANKEX                  0.3%       31.7 11,335
The Sensex and Nifty declined 0.3% each. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices
                                                                                                   AUTO                   -0.5%      (40.3)     8,353
also ended the session lower by 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively. Among the front
liners, L&T, SBI, HDFC Bank, DLF and Hero Honda were up nearly by 1–3%,                            METAL                  -0.9%     (137.4) 14,937
while M&M, Infosys, Wipro, ACC and Cipla declined by 2–3%. Among mid-                              OIL & GAS              -0.7%      (79.5) 10,643
caps, HMT, CMC, Bayer Corp, UTV Software and Rajesh Exports were up by                             BSE IT                 -1.4%      (73.0)     5,325
4–6%, while Infotech Enterprises, Jet Airways, Gee Kay Finance, Marico and
Monnet Ispat were down by 3–6%.                                                                    Global Indices        Chg (%)      (Pts)    (Close)
                                                                                                   Dow Jones                0.0%       3.7     10,367
Markets Today
                                                                                                   NASDAQ                   0.3%       7.8      2,250
The trend deciding level for the day is 18001 / 5404 levels. If NIFTY trades                       FTSE                    -0.3%    (17.5)      5,254
above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a
                                                                                                   Nikkei                   2.7%    258.0       9,795
further rally up to 18105 – 18271 / 5436 – 5486 levels. However, if NIFTY
                                                                                                   Hang Seng                0.6%    129.8      20,561
trades below 18001 / 5404 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may
                                                                                                   Straits Times            0.8%      24.1      2,953
correct up to 17835 – 17731/ 5354 – 5322 levels.
                                                                                                   Shanghai Com             0.8%      20.2      2,470
  Indices                              S2                 S1               R1               R2
                                                                                                   Indian ADRs           Chg (%)      (Pts)    (Close)
  SENSEX                        17,731                17,835            18,105          18,27
                                                                                                   Infosys                 -0.1%      (0.0)     $59.4
  NIFTY                          5,322                 5,354             5,436          5,486      Wipro                    0.2%       0.0      $13.1
                                                                                                   Satyam                  -0.6%      (0.0)      $5.1
News Analysis
                                                                                                   ICICI Bank              -1.4%      (0.6)     $38.6
        Larsen & Toubro bags Hyderabad Metro Project
                                                                                                   HDFC Bank               -1.3%      (2.0)    $150.0
        Piramal Healthcare to sell diagnostic business
        Result Review: South Indian Bank
                                                                                                   Advances / Declines               BSE          NSE
        Result Previews: Axis Bank, Colgate Palmolive, TCS
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page.                                                Advances                        1,275          542
                                                                                                   Declines                        1,680          791
  Net Inflows (July 12, 2010)
                                                                                                   Unchanged                         94            43
  Rs cr              Purch                   Sales             Net          MTD            YTD
  FII                    3,260              2,145           1,116         6,271        36,555
                                                                                                   Volumes (Rs cr)
  MFs                      496                633           (137)          (244)       (8,462)
                                                                                                   BSE                                          4,887
  FII Derivatives (July 14, 2010)                                                                  NSE                                         15,269
                                                                                          Open
  Rs cr                                     Purch            Sales           Net
                                                                                        Interest
  Index Futures                             1,108           1,538          (430)       16,979
  Stock Futures                             1,611           1,426           185        31,455

  Gainers / Losers
                         Gainers                                           Losers
                            Price                                             Price
  Company                               Chg (%)        Company                         Chg (%)
                             (Rs)                                              (Rs)
  IRB Infra.                 271              3.4      Hind. Oil Exp.          231        (2.9)
  Castrol India               447             3.3      Jubilant Org.             363      (2.8)
  GVK Power                     45            2.9      Max India                 164      (2.6)
  RNRL                          46            2.9      Godrej Ind.               176      (2.5)
  Sintex Ind.            341          2.9     Idea                                64      (2.5)
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                                       Sebi Registration No: INB 0109965391
Market Outlook | India Research


                Larsen & Toubro bags Hyderabad Metro Project

                Larsen & Toubro (L&T), the engineering and construction conglomerate, has bagged
                Rs12,132cr Hyderabad Metro Rail project. It would be executed on a design, build,
                finance, operate and transfer basis and is expected to achieve financial closure in six
                months and take about four years for completion. The three-corridor, 71.2km project
                would employ 5,000 engineers and 45,000 skilled and unskilled workers. The concession
                agreement is for a period of 25 years. With this order, the company’s order book stands
                tall at more than Rs1,00,000cr (or more than 2.7x L&T’s standalone construction revenue),
                which continues to provide top-line visibility. At the CMP of Rs1,883, the stock trades at
                26.4x FY2012E P/E and 4.4x FY2012 P/B on a standalone basis. In the backdrop of rich
                valuations that the stock trades at, we recommend a Neutral view on the stock.



                Piramal Healthcare to sell diagnostic business

                Piramal Healthcare (PHL) has announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement
                with Super Religare Laboratories Limited (SRL) under which PHL would sell its subsidiary
                Piramal Diagnostic Services Private Limited (PDSL) to SRL. PDSL provides pathology and
                radiology diagnostic services through a network of 107 laboratories with FY2010 revenue
                of over Rs200cr. The deal is valued at Rs600cr (3x price/sales), under which PHL will
                receive Rs300cr upfront on closure of the deal, 10% stake in SRL and balance Rs165cr
                over a period of three years. PDSL has a debt of Rs220cr as of FY2010, which PHL plans
                to repay from the proceeds of the deal. Post the closure of the deal, SRL will have nearly
                170 laboratories and 1,500 collection centres and will serve more than 12 million
                customers annually. We recommend a Neutral rating on the stock as any upside from
                current levels would hinge on the usage of funds (US $3.7bn) to be received from the sale
                of the domestic formulation business to Abbott.


                Result Review
                South Indian Bank

                South Indian Bank announced its 1QFY2011 results yesterday, reporting a 2.8% yoy
                decline in net profit to Rs58cr, in line with our expectations. The NII increased by 9.8% to
                Rs167cr. Operating expenses of the bank increased by 3.1% yoy to Rs105cr and increased
                by 47.1% sequentially. The effective tax rate was at 33.4%. Asset quality remained healthy,
                with gross NPA ratio of 1.3% in 1QFY2011 (1.85% in 1QFY2010). Net NPA ratio
                remained stable at 0.4%. Further details on the balance sheet and NRI business are not
                available.

                We believe the bank is one of the better-performing old private sector banks. Largely
                concentrated in semi-urban areas in the southern states, the bank’s profitable, cost-
                efficient and technologically up-to-date network constitutes a reasonably attractive
                standalone franchise. The bank’s deposit franchise includes a niche NRI customer base,
                which contributes a meaningful 17% of total deposits and gives it a distinguishing cost
                advantage over several of its peers. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 1.1x FY2012E ABV.
                We maintain a Neutral rating on the stock.




July 15, 2010                                                                                             2
Market Outlook | India Research

                Result Previews

                Axis Bank

                Axis Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2011 results today. We expect the bank to
                report healthy NII growth of 38% yoy to Rs1,441cr. As per RBI’s regulation, banks are
                required to pay interest on savings deposits on a daily basis beginning 1QFY2011. We
                expect the NIM’s impact to be higher for Axis Bank as 24% of the total deposits are savings
                deposits. Accordingly, the bank’s NIMs are expected to decline sequentially by 25–30bp
                during 1QFY2011. The non-interest income is expected to be flat. The bank is expected to
                register moderate treasury gains. The pre-provisions profit of the bank is expected to
                register healthy growth of 15% yoy. Net profit is expected to go up by 26% on a yoy basis
                to Rs709cr.

                At the CMP, the stock is trading at relatively attractive valuations of 2.5x FY2012E ABV—an
                almost 24% discount to HDFC Bank, despite similar earnings quality, profitability and
                growth expectations over FY2010–12E. We have an Accumulate rating on the stock with a
                target price of Rs1,466.


                Colgate Palmolive

                Colgate is expected to announce its 1QFY2011 results. For the quarter, we expect the
                company to post modest top-line growth of 15.8% yoy to Rs542cr, aided by steady volume
                growth. Earnings for the quarter are expected to grow 12.1% yoy to Rs115.3cr, while the
                company is expected to report flat operating margins of 22.5% for the quarter. We
                maintain a Neutral view on the stock.


                TCS

                We expect TCS to witness 2% qoq revenue growth to Rs7,890cr in 1QFY11 backed by
                volumes, as unfavourable cross-currency movement witnessed during 1QFY11 would
                restrain further revenue growth. EBITDA margins are expected to contract by 190bp on
                account of salary hikes and higher manpower intake, with improved business environment.
                We expect net profit to be down by 6% qoq to Rs1,809cr, on account of lower profitability
                and a higher tax rate. We maintain a Buy rating on the stock.




July 15, 2010                                                                                            3
Market Outlook | India Research



                            Economic and Political News

                            June 2010 inflation at 10.55% vs. 10.16% in May 2010
                            Banks lend Rs1.62lakh-cr in June 2010 to Telcos
                            Government-controlled OMCs to review petrol price every month
                            Small savings rates may be linked to market


                            Corporate News

                            Tata Steel to raise Rs1,600cr
                            Glenmark gets USFDA approval for generic asthma drug
                            Bajaj Auto plans bonus shares

                         Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint




   Events for the day
   Axis Bank                              Quarterly Results
   Castrol India                          Quarterly Results
   Colgate                                Quarterly Results
   IL & FS Investment                     Quarterly Results
   LIC Housing Finance                    Quarterly Results
   Polaris                                Quarterly Results
   TCS                                    Quarterly Results
   UTV Software                           Quarterly Results
   Zensar Technology                      Quarterly Results




July 15, 2010                                                                                                                4
Market Outlook | India Research

Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800                                      E-mail: research@angeltrade.com                                     Website: www.angeltrade.com


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risks of such an investment.

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decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are
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July 15, 2010                                                                                                                                                                     5

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Market outlook -July 15,2010

  • 1. Market Outlook India Research July 15, 2010 Dealer’s Diary Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close) The market surged at the onset of the trading session on firm Asian stocks. The BSE Sensex -0.3% (47.7) 17,938 Sensex and the Nifty scaled 29-month highs. The market pared gains in Nifty -0.3% (14.5) 5,386 morning trade. It further trimmed gains in mid-morning trade. The market MID CAP -0.5% (33.9) 7,355 moved in a narrow range in early afternoon trade. The market came off the SMALL CAP -0.3% (24.1) 9,370 lower level in afternoon trade after hitting a fresh intraday low. The intraday BSE HC -0.5% (29.4) 5,703 recovery proved short-lived, with the Sensex moving into the negative territory in BSE PSU -0.3% (26.7) 9,466 late trade as European stocks declined and as US index futures pared gains. BANKEX 0.3% 31.7 11,335 The Sensex and Nifty declined 0.3% each. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices AUTO -0.5% (40.3) 8,353 also ended the session lower by 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively. Among the front liners, L&T, SBI, HDFC Bank, DLF and Hero Honda were up nearly by 1–3%, METAL -0.9% (137.4) 14,937 while M&M, Infosys, Wipro, ACC and Cipla declined by 2–3%. Among mid- OIL & GAS -0.7% (79.5) 10,643 caps, HMT, CMC, Bayer Corp, UTV Software and Rajesh Exports were up by BSE IT -1.4% (73.0) 5,325 4–6%, while Infotech Enterprises, Jet Airways, Gee Kay Finance, Marico and Monnet Ispat were down by 3–6%. Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close) Dow Jones 0.0% 3.7 10,367 Markets Today NASDAQ 0.3% 7.8 2,250 The trend deciding level for the day is 18001 / 5404 levels. If NIFTY trades FTSE -0.3% (17.5) 5,254 above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a Nikkei 2.7% 258.0 9,795 further rally up to 18105 – 18271 / 5436 – 5486 levels. However, if NIFTY Hang Seng 0.6% 129.8 20,561 trades below 18001 / 5404 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may Straits Times 0.8% 24.1 2,953 correct up to 17835 – 17731/ 5354 – 5322 levels. Shanghai Com 0.8% 20.2 2,470 Indices S2 S1 R1 R2 Indian ADRs Chg (%) (Pts) (Close) SENSEX 17,731 17,835 18,105 18,27 Infosys -0.1% (0.0) $59.4 NIFTY 5,322 5,354 5,436 5,486 Wipro 0.2% 0.0 $13.1 Satyam -0.6% (0.0) $5.1 News Analysis ICICI Bank -1.4% (0.6) $38.6 Larsen & Toubro bags Hyderabad Metro Project HDFC Bank -1.3% (2.0) $150.0 Piramal Healthcare to sell diagnostic business Result Review: South Indian Bank Advances / Declines BSE NSE Result Previews: Axis Bank, Colgate Palmolive, TCS Refer detailed news analysis on the following page. Advances 1,275 542 Declines 1,680 791 Net Inflows (July 12, 2010) Unchanged 94 43 Rs cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTD FII 3,260 2,145 1,116 6,271 36,555 Volumes (Rs cr) MFs 496 633 (137) (244) (8,462) BSE 4,887 FII Derivatives (July 14, 2010) NSE 15,269 Open Rs cr Purch Sales Net Interest Index Futures 1,108 1,538 (430) 16,979 Stock Futures 1,611 1,426 185 31,455 Gainers / Losers Gainers Losers Price Price Company Chg (%) Company Chg (%) (Rs) (Rs) IRB Infra. 271 3.4 Hind. Oil Exp. 231 (2.9) Castrol India 447 3.3 Jubilant Org. 363 (2.8) GVK Power 45 2.9 Max India 164 (2.6) RNRL 46 2.9 Godrej Ind. 176 (2.5) Sintex Ind. 341 2.9 Idea 64 (2.5) Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 0109965391
  • 2. Market Outlook | India Research Larsen & Toubro bags Hyderabad Metro Project Larsen & Toubro (L&T), the engineering and construction conglomerate, has bagged Rs12,132cr Hyderabad Metro Rail project. It would be executed on a design, build, finance, operate and transfer basis and is expected to achieve financial closure in six months and take about four years for completion. The three-corridor, 71.2km project would employ 5,000 engineers and 45,000 skilled and unskilled workers. The concession agreement is for a period of 25 years. With this order, the company’s order book stands tall at more than Rs1,00,000cr (or more than 2.7x L&T’s standalone construction revenue), which continues to provide top-line visibility. At the CMP of Rs1,883, the stock trades at 26.4x FY2012E P/E and 4.4x FY2012 P/B on a standalone basis. In the backdrop of rich valuations that the stock trades at, we recommend a Neutral view on the stock. Piramal Healthcare to sell diagnostic business Piramal Healthcare (PHL) has announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with Super Religare Laboratories Limited (SRL) under which PHL would sell its subsidiary Piramal Diagnostic Services Private Limited (PDSL) to SRL. PDSL provides pathology and radiology diagnostic services through a network of 107 laboratories with FY2010 revenue of over Rs200cr. The deal is valued at Rs600cr (3x price/sales), under which PHL will receive Rs300cr upfront on closure of the deal, 10% stake in SRL and balance Rs165cr over a period of three years. PDSL has a debt of Rs220cr as of FY2010, which PHL plans to repay from the proceeds of the deal. Post the closure of the deal, SRL will have nearly 170 laboratories and 1,500 collection centres and will serve more than 12 million customers annually. We recommend a Neutral rating on the stock as any upside from current levels would hinge on the usage of funds (US $3.7bn) to be received from the sale of the domestic formulation business to Abbott. Result Review South Indian Bank South Indian Bank announced its 1QFY2011 results yesterday, reporting a 2.8% yoy decline in net profit to Rs58cr, in line with our expectations. The NII increased by 9.8% to Rs167cr. Operating expenses of the bank increased by 3.1% yoy to Rs105cr and increased by 47.1% sequentially. The effective tax rate was at 33.4%. Asset quality remained healthy, with gross NPA ratio of 1.3% in 1QFY2011 (1.85% in 1QFY2010). Net NPA ratio remained stable at 0.4%. Further details on the balance sheet and NRI business are not available. We believe the bank is one of the better-performing old private sector banks. Largely concentrated in semi-urban areas in the southern states, the bank’s profitable, cost- efficient and technologically up-to-date network constitutes a reasonably attractive standalone franchise. The bank’s deposit franchise includes a niche NRI customer base, which contributes a meaningful 17% of total deposits and gives it a distinguishing cost advantage over several of its peers. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 1.1x FY2012E ABV. We maintain a Neutral rating on the stock. July 15, 2010 2
  • 3. Market Outlook | India Research Result Previews Axis Bank Axis Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2011 results today. We expect the bank to report healthy NII growth of 38% yoy to Rs1,441cr. As per RBI’s regulation, banks are required to pay interest on savings deposits on a daily basis beginning 1QFY2011. We expect the NIM’s impact to be higher for Axis Bank as 24% of the total deposits are savings deposits. Accordingly, the bank’s NIMs are expected to decline sequentially by 25–30bp during 1QFY2011. The non-interest income is expected to be flat. The bank is expected to register moderate treasury gains. The pre-provisions profit of the bank is expected to register healthy growth of 15% yoy. Net profit is expected to go up by 26% on a yoy basis to Rs709cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at relatively attractive valuations of 2.5x FY2012E ABV—an almost 24% discount to HDFC Bank, despite similar earnings quality, profitability and growth expectations over FY2010–12E. We have an Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of Rs1,466. Colgate Palmolive Colgate is expected to announce its 1QFY2011 results. For the quarter, we expect the company to post modest top-line growth of 15.8% yoy to Rs542cr, aided by steady volume growth. Earnings for the quarter are expected to grow 12.1% yoy to Rs115.3cr, while the company is expected to report flat operating margins of 22.5% for the quarter. We maintain a Neutral view on the stock. TCS We expect TCS to witness 2% qoq revenue growth to Rs7,890cr in 1QFY11 backed by volumes, as unfavourable cross-currency movement witnessed during 1QFY11 would restrain further revenue growth. EBITDA margins are expected to contract by 190bp on account of salary hikes and higher manpower intake, with improved business environment. We expect net profit to be down by 6% qoq to Rs1,809cr, on account of lower profitability and a higher tax rate. We maintain a Buy rating on the stock. July 15, 2010 3
  • 4. Market Outlook | India Research Economic and Political News June 2010 inflation at 10.55% vs. 10.16% in May 2010 Banks lend Rs1.62lakh-cr in June 2010 to Telcos Government-controlled OMCs to review petrol price every month Small savings rates may be linked to market Corporate News Tata Steel to raise Rs1,600cr Glenmark gets USFDA approval for generic asthma drug Bajaj Auto plans bonus shares Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint Events for the day Axis Bank Quarterly Results Castrol India Quarterly Results Colgate Quarterly Results IL & FS Investment Quarterly Results LIC Housing Finance Quarterly Results Polaris Quarterly Results TCS Quarterly Results UTV Software Quarterly Results Zensar Technology Quarterly Results July 15, 2010 4
  • 5. Market Outlook | India Research Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 July 15, 2010 5