The market indices in India declined slightly on July 15, 2010. The Sensex fell 0.3% and the Nifty declined 0.3% as European stocks declined and US index futures pared gains in late trade. Most sectoral indices also ended lower, with the exception of banking stocks. Larsen & Toubro was awarded a major metro rail project in Hyderabad. Piramal Healthcare agreed to sell its diagnostic business to Super Religare Laboratories. Several companies announced quarterly results or were scheduled to announce results during the day.
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Market outlook -July 15,2010
1. Market Outlook
India Research
July 15, 2010
Dealer’s Diary Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
The market surged at the onset of the trading session on firm Asian stocks. The BSE Sensex -0.3% (47.7) 17,938
Sensex and the Nifty scaled 29-month highs. The market pared gains in Nifty -0.3% (14.5) 5,386
morning trade. It further trimmed gains in mid-morning trade. The market MID CAP -0.5% (33.9) 7,355
moved in a narrow range in early afternoon trade. The market came off the SMALL CAP -0.3% (24.1) 9,370
lower level in afternoon trade after hitting a fresh intraday low. The intraday
BSE HC -0.5% (29.4) 5,703
recovery proved short-lived, with the Sensex moving into the negative territory in
BSE PSU -0.3% (26.7) 9,466
late trade as European stocks declined and as US index futures pared gains.
BANKEX 0.3% 31.7 11,335
The Sensex and Nifty declined 0.3% each. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices
AUTO -0.5% (40.3) 8,353
also ended the session lower by 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively. Among the front
liners, L&T, SBI, HDFC Bank, DLF and Hero Honda were up nearly by 1–3%, METAL -0.9% (137.4) 14,937
while M&M, Infosys, Wipro, ACC and Cipla declined by 2–3%. Among mid- OIL & GAS -0.7% (79.5) 10,643
caps, HMT, CMC, Bayer Corp, UTV Software and Rajesh Exports were up by BSE IT -1.4% (73.0) 5,325
4–6%, while Infotech Enterprises, Jet Airways, Gee Kay Finance, Marico and
Monnet Ispat were down by 3–6%. Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Dow Jones 0.0% 3.7 10,367
Markets Today
NASDAQ 0.3% 7.8 2,250
The trend deciding level for the day is 18001 / 5404 levels. If NIFTY trades FTSE -0.3% (17.5) 5,254
above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a
Nikkei 2.7% 258.0 9,795
further rally up to 18105 – 18271 / 5436 – 5486 levels. However, if NIFTY
Hang Seng 0.6% 129.8 20,561
trades below 18001 / 5404 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may
Straits Times 0.8% 24.1 2,953
correct up to 17835 – 17731/ 5354 – 5322 levels.
Shanghai Com 0.8% 20.2 2,470
Indices S2 S1 R1 R2
Indian ADRs Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
SENSEX 17,731 17,835 18,105 18,27
Infosys -0.1% (0.0) $59.4
NIFTY 5,322 5,354 5,436 5,486 Wipro 0.2% 0.0 $13.1
Satyam -0.6% (0.0) $5.1
News Analysis
ICICI Bank -1.4% (0.6) $38.6
Larsen & Toubro bags Hyderabad Metro Project
HDFC Bank -1.3% (2.0) $150.0
Piramal Healthcare to sell diagnostic business
Result Review: South Indian Bank
Advances / Declines BSE NSE
Result Previews: Axis Bank, Colgate Palmolive, TCS
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page. Advances 1,275 542
Declines 1,680 791
Net Inflows (July 12, 2010)
Unchanged 94 43
Rs cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTD
FII 3,260 2,145 1,116 6,271 36,555
Volumes (Rs cr)
MFs 496 633 (137) (244) (8,462)
BSE 4,887
FII Derivatives (July 14, 2010) NSE 15,269
Open
Rs cr Purch Sales Net
Interest
Index Futures 1,108 1,538 (430) 16,979
Stock Futures 1,611 1,426 185 31,455
Gainers / Losers
Gainers Losers
Price Price
Company Chg (%) Company Chg (%)
(Rs) (Rs)
IRB Infra. 271 3.4 Hind. Oil Exp. 231 (2.9)
Castrol India 447 3.3 Jubilant Org. 363 (2.8)
GVK Power 45 2.9 Max India 164 (2.6)
RNRL 46 2.9 Godrej Ind. 176 (2.5)
Sintex Ind. 341 2.9 Idea 64 (2.5)
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 0109965391
2. Market Outlook | India Research
Larsen & Toubro bags Hyderabad Metro Project
Larsen & Toubro (L&T), the engineering and construction conglomerate, has bagged
Rs12,132cr Hyderabad Metro Rail project. It would be executed on a design, build,
finance, operate and transfer basis and is expected to achieve financial closure in six
months and take about four years for completion. The three-corridor, 71.2km project
would employ 5,000 engineers and 45,000 skilled and unskilled workers. The concession
agreement is for a period of 25 years. With this order, the company’s order book stands
tall at more than Rs1,00,000cr (or more than 2.7x L&T’s standalone construction revenue),
which continues to provide top-line visibility. At the CMP of Rs1,883, the stock trades at
26.4x FY2012E P/E and 4.4x FY2012 P/B on a standalone basis. In the backdrop of rich
valuations that the stock trades at, we recommend a Neutral view on the stock.
Piramal Healthcare to sell diagnostic business
Piramal Healthcare (PHL) has announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement
with Super Religare Laboratories Limited (SRL) under which PHL would sell its subsidiary
Piramal Diagnostic Services Private Limited (PDSL) to SRL. PDSL provides pathology and
radiology diagnostic services through a network of 107 laboratories with FY2010 revenue
of over Rs200cr. The deal is valued at Rs600cr (3x price/sales), under which PHL will
receive Rs300cr upfront on closure of the deal, 10% stake in SRL and balance Rs165cr
over a period of three years. PDSL has a debt of Rs220cr as of FY2010, which PHL plans
to repay from the proceeds of the deal. Post the closure of the deal, SRL will have nearly
170 laboratories and 1,500 collection centres and will serve more than 12 million
customers annually. We recommend a Neutral rating on the stock as any upside from
current levels would hinge on the usage of funds (US $3.7bn) to be received from the sale
of the domestic formulation business to Abbott.
Result Review
South Indian Bank
South Indian Bank announced its 1QFY2011 results yesterday, reporting a 2.8% yoy
decline in net profit to Rs58cr, in line with our expectations. The NII increased by 9.8% to
Rs167cr. Operating expenses of the bank increased by 3.1% yoy to Rs105cr and increased
by 47.1% sequentially. The effective tax rate was at 33.4%. Asset quality remained healthy,
with gross NPA ratio of 1.3% in 1QFY2011 (1.85% in 1QFY2010). Net NPA ratio
remained stable at 0.4%. Further details on the balance sheet and NRI business are not
available.
We believe the bank is one of the better-performing old private sector banks. Largely
concentrated in semi-urban areas in the southern states, the bank’s profitable, cost-
efficient and technologically up-to-date network constitutes a reasonably attractive
standalone franchise. The bank’s deposit franchise includes a niche NRI customer base,
which contributes a meaningful 17% of total deposits and gives it a distinguishing cost
advantage over several of its peers. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 1.1x FY2012E ABV.
We maintain a Neutral rating on the stock.
July 15, 2010 2
3. Market Outlook | India Research
Result Previews
Axis Bank
Axis Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2011 results today. We expect the bank to
report healthy NII growth of 38% yoy to Rs1,441cr. As per RBI’s regulation, banks are
required to pay interest on savings deposits on a daily basis beginning 1QFY2011. We
expect the NIM’s impact to be higher for Axis Bank as 24% of the total deposits are savings
deposits. Accordingly, the bank’s NIMs are expected to decline sequentially by 25–30bp
during 1QFY2011. The non-interest income is expected to be flat. The bank is expected to
register moderate treasury gains. The pre-provisions profit of the bank is expected to
register healthy growth of 15% yoy. Net profit is expected to go up by 26% on a yoy basis
to Rs709cr.
At the CMP, the stock is trading at relatively attractive valuations of 2.5x FY2012E ABV—an
almost 24% discount to HDFC Bank, despite similar earnings quality, profitability and
growth expectations over FY2010–12E. We have an Accumulate rating on the stock with a
target price of Rs1,466.
Colgate Palmolive
Colgate is expected to announce its 1QFY2011 results. For the quarter, we expect the
company to post modest top-line growth of 15.8% yoy to Rs542cr, aided by steady volume
growth. Earnings for the quarter are expected to grow 12.1% yoy to Rs115.3cr, while the
company is expected to report flat operating margins of 22.5% for the quarter. We
maintain a Neutral view on the stock.
TCS
We expect TCS to witness 2% qoq revenue growth to Rs7,890cr in 1QFY11 backed by
volumes, as unfavourable cross-currency movement witnessed during 1QFY11 would
restrain further revenue growth. EBITDA margins are expected to contract by 190bp on
account of salary hikes and higher manpower intake, with improved business environment.
We expect net profit to be down by 6% qoq to Rs1,809cr, on account of lower profitability
and a higher tax rate. We maintain a Buy rating on the stock.
July 15, 2010 3
4. Market Outlook | India Research
Economic and Political News
June 2010 inflation at 10.55% vs. 10.16% in May 2010
Banks lend Rs1.62lakh-cr in June 2010 to Telcos
Government-controlled OMCs to review petrol price every month
Small savings rates may be linked to market
Corporate News
Tata Steel to raise Rs1,600cr
Glenmark gets USFDA approval for generic asthma drug
Bajaj Auto plans bonus shares
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Events for the day
Axis Bank Quarterly Results
Castrol India Quarterly Results
Colgate Quarterly Results
IL & FS Investment Quarterly Results
LIC Housing Finance Quarterly Results
Polaris Quarterly Results
TCS Quarterly Results
UTV Software Quarterly Results
Zensar Technology Quarterly Results
July 15, 2010 4
5. Market Outlook | India Research
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