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Market Outlook
                                                                                                                                           India Research
                                                                                                                                               August 25, 2010

Dealer’s Diary                                                                                                 Domestic Indices      Chg (%)      (Pts)     (Close)
The market nudged higher in early trade on data showing sustained buying by                                    BSE Sensex               -0.5%     (97.8) 18,312
foreign funds. However, the market lost ground and hit a fresh intraday low in                                 Nifty                    -0.7%     (38.4)      5,505
morning trade. The market came off lows in mid-morning trade, but again hit a                                  MID CAP                  -0.7%     (55.2)      7,832
fresh intraday low in early afternoon trade. The market recovered from its lower                               SMALL CAP                -0.7%     (67.3)      9,901
level in afternoon trade. The Sensex and Nifty closed down by 0.5% and 0.7%,                                   BSE HC                   0.1%          8.1     5,655
respectively amid profit booking across sectors. BSE mid-cap and small-cap
                                                                                                               BSE PSU                  -0.8%     (77.4)      9,737
indices closed with losses of 0.7% each. Among the front liners, Bharti Airtel,
                                                                                                               BANKEX                   -0.5%     (60.4) 12,538
Reliance Communications, SBI, HDFC Bank and HUL gained 1–2%, while
                                                                                                               AUTO                     -0.2%     (21.4)      8,894
Sterlite Inds, Hindalco, DLF, Jaiprakash Associates and Reliance Infra lost 2–4%.
                                                                                                               METAL                    -1.9%    (300.7) 15,181
Among mid caps, State Bank of Mysore, State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur, State
Bank of Travancore, KGN Industries and Religare Enterprises gained 8–20%,                                      OIL & GAS                -0.5%     (55.8) 10,175
while Jai Corp., Central Bank of India, MVL, ISPAT Industries and                                              BSE IT                   -0.7%     (37.4)      5,510
Bombay Dyeing declined 4–6%.                                                                                   Global Indices        Chg (%)      (Pts)     (Close)
                                                                                                               Dow Jones                -1.3% (134.0)       10,040
Markets Today                                                                                                  NASDAQ                   -1.7%     (35.9)      2,124
The trend deciding level for the day is 18341 / 5514 levels. If NIFTY trades                                   FTSE                     -1.5%     (78.9)      5,156
above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a                                  Nikkei                   -1.3% (121.6)         8,995
further rally up to 18422 – 18532 / 5539 - 5572 levels. However, if NIFTY                                      Hang Seng                -1.1% (230.3)       20,659
trades below 18341 / 5514 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may
                                                                                                               Straits Times            -0.1%      (3.1)      2,923
correct up to 18231 – 18150 / 5480 - 5455 levels.
                                                                                                               Shanghai Com              0.4%      10.9       2,650
  Indices                       S2                     S1                   R1                    R2
  SENSEX                     18,150                   18,231               18,422                18,532        Indian ADRs           Chg (%)      (Pts)     (Close)
  NIFTY                       5,455                   5,480                5,539                 5,572         Infosys                  -1.2%      (0.7)      $58.6
                                                                                                               Wipro                    -2.9%      (0.4)      $12.9
News Analysis                                                                                                  Satyam                   -2.6%      (0.1)       $4.5
                                                                                                               ICICI Bank               -1.3%      (0.6)      $42.1
        MoEF rejects Vedanta’s Niyamgiri project in Orissa
                                                                                                               HDFC Bank                -0.9%      (1.5)    $161.9
        GDL raises Rs300cr from Blackstone
        PTC India Financial Services gets IFC status
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page.                                                            Advances / Declines                BSE           NSE
                                                                                                               Advances                         1,184           434
  Net Inflows (August 20, 2010)
  Rs cr              Purch                    Sales                 Net             MTD                YTD     Declines                         1,740           926

  FII                    2,622               1,908                 714           10,678            58,372      Unchanged                          114               41

  MFs                       740                721                   19          (1,482)          (14,427)
                                                                                                               Volumes (Rs cr)
  FII Derivatives (August 24, 2010)
                                                                                                               BSE                                            4,979
                                                                                                     Open
  Rs cr                                      Purch               Sales               Net                       NSE                                           14,613
                                                                                                   Interest
  Index Futures                             8,497               9,657            (1,160)           19,928
  Stock Futures                             8,471               8,688               (218)          39,461

  Gainers / Losers
                           Gainers                                                  Losers
                              Price              chg                                   Price            chg
  Company                                                   Company
                               (Rs)              (%)                                    (Rs)             (%)
  PTC India                    124               4.3        Jai Corp                    276            (5.8)
  Castrol India                   506            4.2        Ispat Ind                       18         (4.9)
  Piramal Health                  521            4.0        Bombay Dye                 625             (4.5)
  Opto Circuits                   277            3.6        Hind Oil Exp               252             (4.1)
  Cairn India                     354            3.2        Sterlite Ind               152             (4.0)

                                                                                                                                                                1



Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                                                   Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
Market Outlook | India Research


                  MoEF rejects Vedanta’s Niyamgiri project in Orissa

                  The Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) has rejected Vedanta Aluminium’s (VAL)
                  application for Stage-II forest license for its Niyamgiri mining project (Orissa). VAL is a
                  subsidiary of Vedanta Resources (71%) and Sterlite (29%).

                  The MoEF’s decision comes after the government-appointed NC Saxena panel
                  recommended last week that it would be illegal to allow bauxite mining operations on the
                  Niyamgiri hills as the company has consistently violated the Forest Conservation Act, Forest
                  Rights Act, Environment Protection Act and the Orissa Forest Act. One such violation was
                  related to the unauthorised capacity expansion from 1mn tonne to 6mn tonne. The panel
                  said that the existing clearance for the refinery should also be cancelled.

                  The MoEF said that it was studying the violation of forest laws by VAL and was examining a
                  possible penal action against the company. It has also decided to issue a Show Cause
                  Notice to VAL for its alumina refinery.

                  In our view, the mining denial is a big dampener for VAL’s expansion projects. However,
                  we feel the company will consider other alternatives, as captive bauxite is key to VAL’s
                  projects in the long term. Moreover, the development will not have a material impact on
                  our earnings estimates as the consolidated financial statements for Sterlite include only
                  29% of the profit from VAL. Hence, we maintain our Buy rating on Sterlite with a Target
                  Price of Rs215.



                  GDL raises Rs300cr from Blackstone

                  Gateway Distriparks Limited’s (GDL) subsidiary Gateway Rail Freight Ltd. (GRFL) has
                  received Rs300cr via an issue of compulsorily convertible preference shares (CCPS) to
                  Blackstone under an agreement entered in November 2009. As per the deal, upon
                  conversion of CCPS after five years, Blackstone would acquire 37.3–49.9% stake in GRFL
                  based on the operating performance of the rail segment. GDL also owns a call option to
                  acquire the CCPS at the end of the five years, while Blackstone has the put option to sell
                  the CCPS at the end of 10 years. The CCPS does not carry any coupon.

                  GRFL intends to use around Rs215cr of the funds for expansion purposes by adding
                  another 10 rakes to its current 18 rakes over next two–three years. The company would
                  also be incurring capex at its Faridabad ICD, which is expected to get operational by end-
                  FY2011. Moreover, GDL would be paid Rs85cr as consideration for transferring its Garhi
                  ICD land (~78 acres) to GRFL. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 11.3x FY2012E EPS and
                  1.7x P/BV FY2012E. We maintain our Accumulate rating with a Target Price of Rs123.




August 25, 2010                                                                                             2
Market Outlook | India Research

                          PTC India Financial Services gets IFC status

                          PTC India Financial Services (PFS), a subsidiary of PTC India, has been given the
                          infrastructure financial company (IFC) status by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The RBI
                          had earlier classified non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) under three categories,
                          namely asset finance companies, loan companies and investment companies. Recently, the
                          RBI introduced a fourth category of NBFCs, i.e. IFCs. Post this development, PFS would be
                          allowed to have a higher exposure to lending and investment to a single borrower or a
                          group of borrowers. Further, PFS would have better access to resources as the exposure
                          limit for banks’ funding to IFCs has been improved. PTC India is trading at 23.5x FY2011E
                          and at 18.2x FY2012E earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with
                          an SOTP Target Price of Rs136.




                           Economic and Political News

                           Industry Ministry in favour of compulsory licensing for third-party drug making
                           FY2011 trade deficit seen atleast at US $120bn, says Trade Secretary
                           RBI questions FDI changes in the aviation sector
                           Independent directors face board cap: SEBI proposal
                           Number of Regional Rural Banks down to 82 from 196: RBI



                           Corporate News

                           Reliance Power eyes US $5bn Indonesia investment
                           National Fertilisers has tied up with 13 banks for financing Rs3,850cr expansion
                           EIH to spend Rs150cr on new projects over the next two years
                           Bharti Airtel eyes mobile market leadership in Kenya
                           Muthoot Finance raises Rs43cr via PE

                        Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint




   Events for the day
   Cipla                                 Dividend
   Mphasis                               Results




August 25, 2010                                                                                                             3
Market Outlook | India Research

Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800                                      E-mail: research@angeltrade.com                                     Website: www.angeltrade.com


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August 25, 2010                                                                                                                                                                   4

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Market Outlook -August 25, 2010

  • 1. Market Outlook India Research August 25, 2010 Dealer’s Diary Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close) The market nudged higher in early trade on data showing sustained buying by BSE Sensex -0.5% (97.8) 18,312 foreign funds. However, the market lost ground and hit a fresh intraday low in Nifty -0.7% (38.4) 5,505 morning trade. The market came off lows in mid-morning trade, but again hit a MID CAP -0.7% (55.2) 7,832 fresh intraday low in early afternoon trade. The market recovered from its lower SMALL CAP -0.7% (67.3) 9,901 level in afternoon trade. The Sensex and Nifty closed down by 0.5% and 0.7%, BSE HC 0.1% 8.1 5,655 respectively amid profit booking across sectors. BSE mid-cap and small-cap BSE PSU -0.8% (77.4) 9,737 indices closed with losses of 0.7% each. Among the front liners, Bharti Airtel, BANKEX -0.5% (60.4) 12,538 Reliance Communications, SBI, HDFC Bank and HUL gained 1–2%, while AUTO -0.2% (21.4) 8,894 Sterlite Inds, Hindalco, DLF, Jaiprakash Associates and Reliance Infra lost 2–4%. METAL -1.9% (300.7) 15,181 Among mid caps, State Bank of Mysore, State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur, State Bank of Travancore, KGN Industries and Religare Enterprises gained 8–20%, OIL & GAS -0.5% (55.8) 10,175 while Jai Corp., Central Bank of India, MVL, ISPAT Industries and BSE IT -0.7% (37.4) 5,510 Bombay Dyeing declined 4–6%. Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close) Dow Jones -1.3% (134.0) 10,040 Markets Today NASDAQ -1.7% (35.9) 2,124 The trend deciding level for the day is 18341 / 5514 levels. If NIFTY trades FTSE -1.5% (78.9) 5,156 above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a Nikkei -1.3% (121.6) 8,995 further rally up to 18422 – 18532 / 5539 - 5572 levels. However, if NIFTY Hang Seng -1.1% (230.3) 20,659 trades below 18341 / 5514 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may Straits Times -0.1% (3.1) 2,923 correct up to 18231 – 18150 / 5480 - 5455 levels. Shanghai Com 0.4% 10.9 2,650 Indices S2 S1 R1 R2 SENSEX 18,150 18,231 18,422 18,532 Indian ADRs Chg (%) (Pts) (Close) NIFTY 5,455 5,480 5,539 5,572 Infosys -1.2% (0.7) $58.6 Wipro -2.9% (0.4) $12.9 News Analysis Satyam -2.6% (0.1) $4.5 ICICI Bank -1.3% (0.6) $42.1 MoEF rejects Vedanta’s Niyamgiri project in Orissa HDFC Bank -0.9% (1.5) $161.9 GDL raises Rs300cr from Blackstone PTC India Financial Services gets IFC status Refer detailed news analysis on the following page. Advances / Declines BSE NSE Advances 1,184 434 Net Inflows (August 20, 2010) Rs cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTD Declines 1,740 926 FII 2,622 1,908 714 10,678 58,372 Unchanged 114 41 MFs 740 721 19 (1,482) (14,427) Volumes (Rs cr) FII Derivatives (August 24, 2010) BSE 4,979 Open Rs cr Purch Sales Net NSE 14,613 Interest Index Futures 8,497 9,657 (1,160) 19,928 Stock Futures 8,471 8,688 (218) 39,461 Gainers / Losers Gainers Losers Price chg Price chg Company Company (Rs) (%) (Rs) (%) PTC India 124 4.3 Jai Corp 276 (5.8) Castrol India 506 4.2 Ispat Ind 18 (4.9) Piramal Health 521 4.0 Bombay Dye 625 (4.5) Opto Circuits 277 3.6 Hind Oil Exp 252 (4.1) Cairn India 354 3.2 Sterlite Ind 152 (4.0) 1 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
  • 2. Market Outlook | India Research MoEF rejects Vedanta’s Niyamgiri project in Orissa The Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) has rejected Vedanta Aluminium’s (VAL) application for Stage-II forest license for its Niyamgiri mining project (Orissa). VAL is a subsidiary of Vedanta Resources (71%) and Sterlite (29%). The MoEF’s decision comes after the government-appointed NC Saxena panel recommended last week that it would be illegal to allow bauxite mining operations on the Niyamgiri hills as the company has consistently violated the Forest Conservation Act, Forest Rights Act, Environment Protection Act and the Orissa Forest Act. One such violation was related to the unauthorised capacity expansion from 1mn tonne to 6mn tonne. The panel said that the existing clearance for the refinery should also be cancelled. The MoEF said that it was studying the violation of forest laws by VAL and was examining a possible penal action against the company. It has also decided to issue a Show Cause Notice to VAL for its alumina refinery. In our view, the mining denial is a big dampener for VAL’s expansion projects. However, we feel the company will consider other alternatives, as captive bauxite is key to VAL’s projects in the long term. Moreover, the development will not have a material impact on our earnings estimates as the consolidated financial statements for Sterlite include only 29% of the profit from VAL. Hence, we maintain our Buy rating on Sterlite with a Target Price of Rs215. GDL raises Rs300cr from Blackstone Gateway Distriparks Limited’s (GDL) subsidiary Gateway Rail Freight Ltd. (GRFL) has received Rs300cr via an issue of compulsorily convertible preference shares (CCPS) to Blackstone under an agreement entered in November 2009. As per the deal, upon conversion of CCPS after five years, Blackstone would acquire 37.3–49.9% stake in GRFL based on the operating performance of the rail segment. GDL also owns a call option to acquire the CCPS at the end of the five years, while Blackstone has the put option to sell the CCPS at the end of 10 years. The CCPS does not carry any coupon. GRFL intends to use around Rs215cr of the funds for expansion purposes by adding another 10 rakes to its current 18 rakes over next two–three years. The company would also be incurring capex at its Faridabad ICD, which is expected to get operational by end- FY2011. Moreover, GDL would be paid Rs85cr as consideration for transferring its Garhi ICD land (~78 acres) to GRFL. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 11.3x FY2012E EPS and 1.7x P/BV FY2012E. We maintain our Accumulate rating with a Target Price of Rs123. August 25, 2010 2
  • 3. Market Outlook | India Research PTC India Financial Services gets IFC status PTC India Financial Services (PFS), a subsidiary of PTC India, has been given the infrastructure financial company (IFC) status by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The RBI had earlier classified non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) under three categories, namely asset finance companies, loan companies and investment companies. Recently, the RBI introduced a fourth category of NBFCs, i.e. IFCs. Post this development, PFS would be allowed to have a higher exposure to lending and investment to a single borrower or a group of borrowers. Further, PFS would have better access to resources as the exposure limit for banks’ funding to IFCs has been improved. PTC India is trading at 23.5x FY2011E and at 18.2x FY2012E earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with an SOTP Target Price of Rs136. Economic and Political News Industry Ministry in favour of compulsory licensing for third-party drug making FY2011 trade deficit seen atleast at US $120bn, says Trade Secretary RBI questions FDI changes in the aviation sector Independent directors face board cap: SEBI proposal Number of Regional Rural Banks down to 82 from 196: RBI Corporate News Reliance Power eyes US $5bn Indonesia investment National Fertilisers has tied up with 13 banks for financing Rs3,850cr expansion EIH to spend Rs150cr on new projects over the next two years Bharti Airtel eyes mobile market leadership in Kenya Muthoot Finance raises Rs43cr via PE Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint Events for the day Cipla Dividend Mphasis Results August 25, 2010 3
  • 4. Market Outlook | India Research Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 August 25, 2010 4