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Weekly Report
1. Technical Picks | July 9, 2011
Market awaits 1Q results for a decisive move
Sensex (18858) / Nifty (5661)
In our previous Weekly report, we had mentioned that we are Exhibit 1: Sensex weekly chart
observing a Bullish Inverse "Head and Shoulder" pattern in the
making. The said pattern would be confirmed only if indices
break the downward sloping trend line, joining the two
significant highs of 21109 & 20665 / 6339 & 6181. The value
of the downward sloping trend line is in the range of
19000 - 19155 / 5700 - 5750 levels. The week opened on a
flat note. During the first half of the week, markets traded in a
narrow range. However, volatility increased as the week
progressed and the Sensex ended with marginal gain of 0.51%, Source: Falcon
whereas the Nifty ended with net gain of 0.59% vis-à-vis the
previous week. Exhibit 2: Sensex daily chart
Pattern Formation
On the Weekly chart, a Bullish Inverse "Head and Shoulder"
pattern mentioned in the previous report has not been confirmed
yet. Also, we are observing a "Spinning Top" Japanese
candlestick pattern near the trend line resistance, which suggests
indecisiveness at current levels.
On the Weekly chart, markets faced resistance near the
Source: Falcon
trend line. This level also coincides with the 200 - day SMA
placed near 5750.
trend line resistance. Hence, going forward, the previous week
On the other hand, we are observing a positive crossover high of 19132 / 5741 level would act as a resistance level for
in the "RSI - Smoothened" momentum oscillator on the Weekly the markets. If indices manage to close above this level, then
chart, which cannot be ignored. they are likely to test 19652 - 20292 / 5895 - 6092 levels. On
the downside, the previous week low of 18682 / 5610 level
Future Outlook
would act as a support level. If indices violate these lows, then
Broadly, after a consolidation of three days, markets gave a they are likely to test 18527 - 18223 / 5558 - 5468 levels in
sharp upmove on Thursday's trading session, but profit booking the coming trading sessions.
at higher levels led indices to give indecisive closing near the
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3. Derivatives Review | July 9, 2011
Dip towards 5600 should be bought
Nifty spot closed at 5661 this week, against a close of 5627 last week. The Put-Call Ratio increased from 1.23 to 1.25 points and the
annualized Cost of Carry is positive 3.76 The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 10.24
3.76%. 10.24%.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis Historical Volatility Analysis
The Nifty PCR open interest increased from 1.23 to 1.25 levels. IV of at the money options is at the same levels of 16.80% as of
Over a week, significant build up was observed in most of the last week. Historical volatility (HV) has increased from 20.68%
call options however the 5800 call added highest open interest. to 20.73%. Counters where HV has increased substantially are
While in put options, the 5500 strike added highest open interest MCDOWELL-N, GODREJIND, TATAGLOBAL, HINDZINC and
and the strike has highest positions too. The 5800 level continues SYNDIBANK. Stocks where it has decreased are GTL,
to act as a resistance for the market. On the lower side, market JINDALSAW, PUNJLLOYD, VIDEOIND and GTLINFRA.
may touch around 5600 levels and the level can be used to
buy selective stocks.
Open Interest Analysis Cost-of-Carry Analysis
Total Open interest of the market has increased from `97,853 Nifty July Futures closed at a premium of 11.65 points against
crores to `121,352 crores. Stock futures open interest has a premium of 11.20 points last week. The Aug future closed at
increased from `31,011 crores to `33,617 crores. Few liquid a premium of 28.55 points. Few liquid stocks where cost of
counters where open interest has increased significantly are carry turned from negative to positive are TCS, ABB,
GODREJIND, TATAGLOBAL, CESC, ORIENTBANK and TRIVENI. AMBUJACEM, BRFL and GRASIM. Stocks where cost of carry
Stocks where open interest has decreased significantly are turned from positive to negative are ASHOKLEY, INDUSINDBK,
ORCHIDCHEM, PETRONET, GSPL, CHAMBLFERT and PFC. DLF ACC and IDEA.
,
Derivative Strategy
Scrip : RELIANCE CMP : ` 854.85/- Lot Size : 250 Exercise Date (F & O) :
28th July, 2011
View: Mildly Bullish Strategy: Long Call Ladder Expected Payoff
Buy/Sell Qty Scrip Strike Series Option Rate Price
Closing Price Expected
rofit/Loss
Profit/Loss
Price Type (`)
Buy 250 RELIANCE 860 July Call 22.00 `810.00 `0.00
Sell 250 RELIANCE 880 July Call 14.00
`840.00 `0.00
Sell 250 RELIANCE 900 July Call 8.00
`870.00 `10.00
LBEP: `860.00/-
LBEP: 860.00/-
`900.00 `20.00
HBEP: `920.00/-
HBEP: 920.00/-
Max. Risk: Unlimited Profit:
Max. Profit: `5000.00/- `930.00 (`10.00)
If RELIANCE continuous to trade above HBEP If RELIANCE closes on or between `880 and `900 on expiry `960.00 (`40.00)
NOTE : Profit can be booked before expiry if RELIANCE moves in the favourable direction and time value decays.
NOTE
TE:
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4. Weekly
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