The document discusses demographic transition theory and optimum population. Demographic transition theory refers to the transition from high birth and death rates to lower rates as a country develops. This is demonstrated through a demographic transition model. China adopted policies like the one-child policy that led to declining fertility and a demographic transition. While China's population growth is now only 0.7% annually, India's is still higher at 1.6% and India will surpass China in population size by 2050 if trends continue. India's youth population will not outnumber older groups for decades, allowing for higher growth potential through a demographic dividend if policies support productive employment and education. The concept of optimum population refers to the best population size given ecological sustainability and carrying

1. Demographic Transition Theory
and
Optimum Population
By- Pranjal Prateek
Avionics,
SC12B104,
Roll-31

2. Demography
• The general science of studying human population.
• It is the statistics of the population that is subjected to
change in accordance with aging, birth, death, migration etc.
• The demography of any place helps to gather information
about the population, religion, language and ethnicity of
that place.
• Demography can be understood through census. Census
2011 -7th Census operation post India's Independence and
15th in total since; it began in the year 1981

3. Demographic Transition theory
• Demographic transition (DT) refers to the
transition from high birth and death rates to low
birth and death rates as a country develops from
a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic
system.
• This is typically demonstrated through
a demographic transition model (DTM). The
theory is based on an interpretation
of demographic history developed in 1929 by the
American demographer Warren Thompson
(1887–1973).

4. Demographic Transition Model

5. India vs China
• China’s population growth is only 0.7% per year (India with
1.6 billion, will surpass China with respect to population
size in 2050).
• India had 66% higher income per capita than China in 1980,
but by the early 1990s China overtook India.
• In 2008, the situation was reversed, with income per capita
in China double that of India.
• This income crossover is due to very different demographic
trajectories of China and India.
• China’s campaign of “later, longer, fewer” and its one-child
policy (beginning in 1979) led to a decline in fertility.

6. India vs China

7. Indian Demography
• India’s 65 and over population currently
represents only one-fourth the number of its
adolescents and young adults.
• It will not outnumber the younger group for
nearly four decades.
• Fertility decline and rising longevity will rise the
working-age share creating higher growth rates in
India over the next 30 years

8. Indian Demography

9. Nurturing the Demographic dividend
• Policies to meet the education and training needs of India’s
youth can ease the process of caring for growing numbers of
older Indians in the future.
• Behavioural and policy responses to population aging –
including higher labour force participation of women, higher
savings for retirement, and later age of retirement – suggest
that population aging will not necessarily significantly impede
economic growth.
• If India adopts policies that allow the working-age population
to be productively employed, India may receive a demographic
dividend of roughly 1% point growth in GDP, compounded
year by year.

10. Boon or Bane
• It is us who will decide.

11. Optimum Population
• The optimum population is the size of
a population that is the best out of several
outcomes.
• Estimations usually take
ecological sustainability and carrying
capacity more or less into account. Also,
optimum population can refer to a specific
area, such as a region or country, but can also
refer to the entire world or universe.

12. Optimum population

13. Indian Optimum Population

14. Hope you enjoyed it…
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