The document discusses demographic transition and demographic dividend. It begins by explaining demographic transition as the stages a country goes through when transitioning from non-industrial to industrial. It then defines demographic dividend as the economic growth resulting from changes in a country's population age structure, mainly when the working age population is larger than the non-working populations. The document provides details on India's current demographic dividend, including that India has one of the youngest populations globally and its working age population recently grew larger than the dependent population. Finally, it discusses the challenges of an aging global population, including rising healthcare costs and fewer working age people to support more retired individuals.
9. Demographic Transition
Demographic transition : is a series of stages that a country goes through when transitioning from non-
industrial to industrial. The demographic transition concept involves four stages that are based on changes to
population size and social behaviors.
11. Demographic Dividend
Demographic dividend is economic growth brought on by a change in the structure of a
country’s population, usually a result of a fall in fertility and mortality rates.
The demographic dividend comes as there’s an increase in the working population's
productivity, which boosts per capita income.
The first period for a demographic dividend can last 50 or more years and then the second
period can last indefinitely as an aging population invests in various investment vehicles.
Demographic dividend means, "the economic growth potential
that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure,
mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to
64) is larger than the non-working-age share of the population
(14 and younger, and 65 and older).
Source: United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)
13. Demographic Dividend in India
India has one of the youngest populations in an aging world. By 2020,
the median age in India will be just 28, compared to 37 in China and the
US, 45 in Western Europe, and 49 in Japan.
Since 2018, India’s working-age population (people between 15 and 64
years of age) has grown larger than the dependent population — children
aged 14 or below as well as people above 65 years of age. This bulge in the
working-age population is going to last till 2055, or 37 years from its
beginning.
This transition happens largely because of a decrease in the total fertility
rate (TFR, which is the number of births per woman) after the increase in
life expectancy gets stabilized.
A study on demographic dividend in India by United Nations Population
Fund (UNFPA) throws up two interesting facts.
The window of demographic dividend opportunity in India is available for
five decades from 2005-06 to 2055-56, longer than any other country in
the world.
This demographic dividend window is available at different times in
different states because of differential behaviour of the population
parameters.
20. The Demographic Debacle
By 2050, there will be 10 billion people on earth, compared to 7.7 billion today—
and many of them will be living longer. As a result, the number of elderly people per
100 working-age people will nearly triple—from 20 in 1980, to 58 in 2060.
The Squeezed Middle: With more people claiming pension benefits but less people
paying income taxes, the shrinking workforce may be forced to pay higher taxes.
Rising Healthcare Costs: Longer lives do not necessarily mean healthier lives, with
those over 65 more likely to have at least one chronic disease and require expensive,
long-term care.
As 2020 marks the beginning of the Decade of Healthy Ageing, the world is
undoubtedly entering a pivotal period.
In developed countries, where acute care and institutional long-term care services
are widely available, the use of medical care services by adults rises with age, and
per capita expenditures on health care are relatively high among older age groups.
Many high-income countries now want people to work for more years to slow
escalating costs of pensions and health care for retirees, especially given smaller
cohorts entering the labor force. Most middle- and low-income countries will face
similar challenges.
The increases in life expectancy and the sheer numeric growth of older populations,
demographic momentum will likely raise the demand for care.