Population expansion around the world has shown a pattern of rapid increase, again stabilization and very small increase or decline after that. This trend is conceptualized as demographic transition. In the following presentation we will look at: 1. PopulationDynamics 2. Demographictransitiontheory 3. PatternofDemographictransitionacrosstheworld 4. DemographictransitioninIndia 5. EffectsofdemographictransitioninIndia

1. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN INDIA
AND ITS EFFECTS
Dr Sarinkumar P S
Junior Resident
Moderator:
Dr Anuj Mundra
Asst. Professor
Dr. Sushila Nayar School of
Public Health
MGIMS, Sewagram

2. FRAMEWORK
1. Population Dynamics
2. Demographic transition theory
3. Pattern of Demographic transition across the world
4. Demographic transition in India
5. Effects of demographic transition in India

3. REFUGEE CRISIS
Millions of people have
been forced to flee their
homes around the world.
This global displacement
crisis is made worse by
countries closing their
borders and turning their
back on the most
vulnerable people. This is
a humanitarian crisis, and
it needs more human
response. Seeking safety
is not a crime.

4. Recall FERTILITY MEASURES
Fertility: the childbearing performance of individuals, couples, or populations.
Crude birth rate:
CBR = number of births ×1000.
mid-year population
General fertility rate:
GFR = number of births to women aged 15 − 44 /49 × 1000.
mid-year population of women aged 15 − 44/49

5. Age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) :
ASFR = births to women aged x ×1000.
mid-year population of women aged x
Total (period) fertility rate (TFR/TPFR):
the sum of the age-specific fertility rates for all reproductive age groups for a particular
period (usually a year), conventionally expressed per woman.
Gross reproduction rate (GRR):
GRR = TFR × proportion of female births.

6. MORTALITY MEASURES
Crude death rate:
CDR = number of deaths ×1000.
mid-year population
Age-specific mortality rate (ASMR) :
ASMR = deaths to persons aged x ×1000.
mid-year population of persons aged x

7. POPULATION DYNAMICS
Any population comprises those who have made an entry and not yet exited.
When whole populations of defined geographic areas are considered, the
only means of entry are birth or immigration and the only means of exit
death or emigration.

8. Demographic determinants of population size, structure, and growth
Fertility
Mortality
Migration

9. POPULATION GROWTH
Population growth is still fast: Every year 140 million are born
and 58 million die – the difference is the number of people that
we add to the world population in a year: 82 million.

10. HOW IS THE GLOBAL POPULATION DISTRIBUTED ACROSS THE WORLD?

11. WORLD POPULATION FROM 10,000 BC TO TODAY

12. POPULATION GROWTH BY WORLD REGION

13. POPULATION GROWTH BY COUNTRY
TOP FIVE
MOST POPULOUS COUNTRIES:
(1) China (1.42 billion)
(2) India (1.37 billion)
(3) United States (329 million)
(4) Indonesia (269 million)
(5) Brazil (212 million)

14. FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH
For several centuries, China has been the world’s most populous
country. But not for long: it’s expected that India will overtake
China within the next decade.

16. THE NEW BALANCE
We are on the way to a new balance. The big global demographic
transition that the world entered more than two centuries ago is then
coming to an end: This new equilibrium is different from the one in the past
when it was the very high mortality that kept population growth in check.
In the new balance it will be low fertility keeps population changes small.

17. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
The changes in the population of countries over time have been found to
follow a pattern described as Demographic transition.
It is a process of fundamental change by which a country moves gradually
from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates.

18. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
This understanding of societal changes is based on the work of Thompson, Blacker,and
Notestein, who derived the model based on changes in demographics over the
preceding two hundred years or so.
Frank W. Notestein (1902-1983)

20. FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
➤ Improved health and living conditions over time
➤ Increase in age at time of marriage
➤ Decrease in need or wish to have more children
➤ Move from rural to urban living (urbanisation)
➤ Increase in level of education, especially of girls and women
➤ Increase in paid employment opportunities for women
➤ Increase in awareness and availability of contraception and family planning services

21. THE PATTERN OF DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION ACROSS THE WORLD
Countries throughout the world are currently at different stages of
demographic transition. Some countries in Asia and Europe have low
death rates, low birth rates and low population growth and are in stage
4. Most of the least developed countries are still in stages 2 and 3.

22. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES
Example: Demographic transition in Sweden

23. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN LOW INCOME COUNTRIES
Example: Demographic transition in India
The most obvious difference is
the timing of the demographic
transitions in the rest of the
world compared with those
which occurred in Europe.
However, despite occurring
later, once mortality began to
fall in the less developed
countries, it fell far more
quickly than during historical
transitions.

24. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN
INDIA
India's population has grown very rapidly and has imposed a substantial
burden of youth dependency on the Indian economy. But in recent years,
India's demographic profile has begun to evolve in a way that is potentially
more favourable to economic growth.

25. POPULATION GROWTH
1960 448 million
2000 1.04 billion
2011 1.21 billion
2018 esti 1.35 billion

26. INDIA - FUTURE PROJECTION
India’s population growth will come to an end: the number of
children has already peaked

28. INDIA’S CHANGING DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE

31. EMIGRATION
There are an estimated 11.4 million Indians living outside of India. The countries to which
Indians have emigrated in largest numbers, as of 2010, are United Arab Emirates (2.2 million),
the United States (1.7 million), Saudi Arabia (1.5 million), and Bangladesh (1.1 million). In
2000, 57,000 Indian physicians were living overseas.
They contribute 4.5% of GDP

32. THE AGE STRUCTURE
Population growth is not the only major consequence of the demographic
transition. The age structure is also transformed as a consequence of a baby
boom that occurs at the beginning of the transition. The baby boom is not
caused by an increase in births, but rather by the sharply reduced rates of
infant and child mortality that are characteristic of the beginning of a
demographic transition

33. INDIA’S POPULATION PYRAMID
1950 1970

34. INDIA’S POPULATION PYRAMID
1990 2010

35. INDIA’S POPULATION PYRAMID
2019 2050

36. EFFECTS OF CHANGING AGE
STRUCTURE
Baby booms are very consequential economically because the presence of more
children requires that there be more resources for food, clothing, housing, medical
care, and schooling.
Those resources must be diverted from other uses such as building factories,
establishing infrastructure, and investing in research and development. This
diversion of resources to current consumption can temporarily slow the process of
economic growth

37. ^ PRODUCING CAPACITY OF THE ECONOMY

38. POPULATION HEALTH
Macroeconomists and economic policymakers have traditionally viewed
population health as a social indicator that improves only after countries become
wealthy.
New thinking views health itself as an instrument of economic growth, not
simply a consequence of it.
“Healthier means wealthier....health is a strong driver of economic growth.

39. Health is believed to drive economic growth for four main reasons:
1. A healthier workforce is a more productive workforce.
2. Healthier children tend to have better records of school attendance, and
stay in school longer, ultimately resulting in a more educated workforce.
Healthy children also have better cognitive function, and avoid physical
and mental disabilities that may be associated with childhood illness.
3. Healthy populations have higher savings rates, as people save more in
anticipation of longer lives post-retirement
4. Healthy populations attract foreign direct investment.

40. URBANIZATION AND HEALTH
People living in cities are typically exposed to greater pollution levels than rural
dwellers. They often have more sedentary lives, and they may be subject to more
stress.
Left unchecked, the increased prevalence of chronic diseases will pose serious
threats for India’s future economic and physical well-being.
“The fraction of people living in urban areas grew from 18% in 1960 to 30% in 2008
(World Bank 2010).

41. ASPECTS OF URBANIZATION THAT MAY PROMOTE
ECONOMIC GROWTH
Work opportunities are more plentiful, fertility rates are lower so more
women enter the labor force, industries can capture the benefits of economies
of scale, enterprises can readily learn from each other, and transportation of
people and goods is easier than in rural areas.
Even in the arena of health, greater availability of healthcare, combined
with lower fertility rates, means that increased urbanization may offer some
advantages that can help propel economic growth.

42. INDIA’S ECONOMIC POTENTIAL
Make wider and deeper investments in health
Acceleration of fertility decline
➤ Acceleration of fertility decline
➤ Efforts to promote infant and child survival.
➤ Girl’s education
“India is poised to reap economic benefits from the favourable demographics ,
but this windfall is not guaranteed..

43. NATURAL ENVIRONMENT
The 7-fold increase of the world population over the course of two centuries
amplified humanity’s impact on the natural environment. To provide space, food,
and resources for a large world population in a way that is sustainable into the
distant future is without question one of the large, serious challenges for our
generation.

44. AGE DEPENDENCY RATIO
Age dependency ratio is the ratio of dependents--people younger
than 15 or older than 64--to the working-age population--those
ages 15-64.
(% of working-age population)
Patterns of development in a country are partly determined by the age composition of its population. Different age groups have different impacts on both the
environment and on infrastructure needs. Therefore the age structure of a population is useful for analyzing resource use and formulating future policy and
planning goals with regards infrastructure and development.
Relevance to gender indicator: this indicator implies the dependency burden that the working-age population bears in relation to children and the elderly. Many
times single or widowed women who are the sole caregiver of a household have a high dependency ratio.

45. Todays large cohorts of working-age individuals will be large cohorts of elderly dependents in the future.

46. the ratio of the number of working-
age Indians to the number of non-
working-age Indians under three UN
fertility scenarios

47. The falling dependency ratio will provide a ‘window of opportunity’, which will last for another 20 years

48. INDIA’S DEMOGRAPHIC
ADVANTAGE
With 365 million young people,
India is the youngest nation in the
world. Youth comprise 30 per cent
of the country’s population.

49. DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND
The demographic dividend is the economic growth potential that can
result from shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share
of the working-age population (15 to 64) is larger than the non-working-
age share of the population (14 and younger, and 65 and older).

50. POPULATION HETEROGENEITY
States in the southern part of the country and a few from other regions are further
ahead in terms of the demographic transition. These states will have the window of
opportunity narrowing in less than five years, followed by another group of states
where the window will close within a decade
“India, nations within a nation

53. FEMALES IN INDIA - MILLIONS OF MISSED OPPORTUNITIES
Annually, 450 thousand
girls were missing
at birth owing to the
practice of gender-biased
sex selection and son
preference during
the period of 2001-2015

54. FEMALES IN INDIA - MILLIONS OF MISSED OPPORTUNITIES
27 per cent of women
aged 20-24 years were
married before 18 years
and
this increased to 48 per
cent by age 20

55. FEMALES IN INDIA - MILLIONS OF MISSED OPPORTUNITIES

56. HOW CAN INDIA TAP ITS DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND?
Realisation of the demographic dividend depends on an economy’s capacity
to absorb workers into productive employment. This capacity is
strengthened by:
• Good governance
• Efficient infrastructure
• Prudent fiscal and macroeconomic management
• Well-developed and competitive financial markets and labor markets
• Investments in education and training

57. BIBLIOGRAPHY
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2011.
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sections/issues-depth/population/index.html
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events/populationday/resources.shtml
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papp.iussp.org/sessions/papp101_s01/PAPP101_s01_090_010.html
7. Ezeh A.C., Bongaarts J., Mberu B. Global population trends and policy options. The Lancet 2012; 380(9837):
142-148.

58. Thank you
Don’t sort them
based on religion