This document outlines the key concepts and tools of demography that will be covered in the course, including defining population characteristics, sources of demographic data, fertility and mortality rates, and factors influencing population growth. The course will examine topics such as the demographic transition, population pyramids, dependency ratios, population momentum, urbanization and migration patterns, and conclude with current statistics on Pakistan's population.

2. Demography
by
Dr Sajid Hameed
Course Objectives
1.Define different tools of demography and vital
statistics
2.Name major sources of data
3.Describe the Demographic transition
4.Interpret and compute different mortality,fertility
and morbidity related measures
5.Describe factors that effect on mortality and
fertility
6.Impact of population growth, Urbanization &
Migration

3. Demography
• Demo (People) + Graphien (write)
• The quantitative study of Characteristics of
human population
1. Size
2.Age and Sex distribution
3.Density
4.Growth
5.Vital statistic
3

4. What does immediately comes to the mind
when we think of population?
• People: • Characteristics of
1. Size population:
1. Ethnic
2. Age
2. Marital
3. Sex
3. Economic
4. Regional Distribution 4. Educational
5. Change 5. Residential
6. Population trends 6. Religion
7. Language
4

5. Why we should study demography?
• Food Security
• Pollution
• Inflation
• Income
• Energy
• Unemployment
• Literacy
• Individual freedom
5

6. Important Definitions
• Demography • Population growth
• Population change rate
• Sources of • Population doubling
demographic data time
• Age-sex composition • Population pyramid
• Fertility • Replacement level
fertility
• Mortality
• Momentum of
• Net-Migration
population
• Urbanization
6

7. Demographic Processes
• Fertility
• Mortality
• Marriage
• Migration
• Social Mobility
7

8. Sources of Population Data
• Vital registration
1. Births
2. Deaths
3. Marriages
4. Population registers
5. Service statistics
6. International; migration statistics
• NADRA
• Demographic Sample Surveys
• Population & Housing Censes
8

9. Population Census
• Definition:
It is a process of collecting, compiling and publishing
demographic, economic and social data pertaining to
specific time or times, from all persons in a country.
(U N 1958)
• Methods:
a) Enumerations
b) By questionnaire
c) Combination of both
DE FECTO (A person is at the place he or she is found at
the time of counting.)
DE JURE ( A person is counted at the place of his or her
actual residence.)
9

10. Population Pyramid
• A graphical representation designed to give a
picture of the Age & Sex Structure of a
population
• Salient features of a population pyramid:
1.A series of bars each in proportionate to % of
contribution of age –sex group
2.Males are shown on left of pyramid
3.Youngest are shown at the bottom
4.Shape of the pyramid reflects major influences
due to vital events in the history of a country
10

11. Dependency Ratio
• The proportion of persons above 65years
of age and children below 15 years of age
are considered to be dependent on the
economically productive age group(15-
64Yrs)
11

12. Growth of World Population Through Centuries
Period Year Approximate Annual growth
population rate %
10,000 B.C 1-10 m < .05
1650 A.D 500 m 0.1
1850 A.D 1.2 b 0.5
1950 A.D 2.4 b 0.8
2000 A.D 6.1 b 1.7
2027 A.D 10.1 b 1.7
12

13. Population Doubling Time
• How long a population would take at its
current Growth Rate to double in size?
70
• Doubling Time in Years = ------------------
Gr. Rate in %
• e.g if Gr.Rate= 2% then population
doubling time = 70/2 =35 Years
13

14. Phases of the Demographic Transition
Stage Phase Birth Death Natural rate Examples
Rate Rates of increase
s
I High High High Zero, or
Stationary very low
II Early High Falling Slow
Expanding slowly
III Late Fallin Falling Rapid
Expanding g faster
than
birth
rates
IV Low Low Low Zero, or
Stationary very low 14

15. Demographic Trap
• In countries where an imbalance exists are
endangering their ecosystem. This phenomenon
is called demographic trap.
• Phases:
First Phase
Human demands are within the sustainable
yield of ecosystem
Second Phase
Human demands exceed the sustainable yield,
so biological reserves are consumed.
Third Phase
Ecosystem collapses
15

16. Population Explosion
• Due to existing rapid growth rate of most
of the countries a population explosion is
going to develop, the world population has
experienced a phenomenal increase.
16

17. Summary Implications
• Shortage of :- • Increase In :-
1. Educational facilities 1. Unemployment
2. Health Services 2. Land Fragmentation
3. Housing Units 3. Food Imports
4. Food 4. Environmental
5. Living Space Pollution
6. Clean water 5. Overcrowding
6. Katchi Abadis
7. Poverty
8. Unrest & Crime
17

18. Factors Affecting Fertility
• Age at marriage & duration of married life.
• Family planning & Child spacing
• Education
• Economic Status
• Cast & Religion
• Nutrition
• Other factors( Physical,Biological,Socio-
cultural).
18

19. Basic Fertility Measures
• Crude birth rate (CBR)
• General fertility rate (GFR)
• Age-specific fertility rate (ASFR)
• Total fertility rate (TFR)
• Gross reproductive rate (GRR)
• Net reproductive rate (NRR)
• General marital fertility rate (GMFR)
19

20. Tools of Demography
• Counts
• Rates
• Ratios
• Proportions
20

21. Components of a Rate
• Numerator
• Denominator
• Specified time
• Multiplier to convert the rate from an awkward
fraction or a decimal to a whole number.
Rate = No. of events in a specified period X n
Average population during that period
21

22. Rates
• Crude Rates are summary measures
based on the actual number of events in a
total population over a given time period
• Specific rates means pertaining to a
population or disease subgroup
• Adjusted or standardized rates can be
calculated to adjust for differences in age
distribution, so that comparisons are
interpretable.
22

23. Vital Statistics
Rate = N /D X K
N= Number of the variable under Observtion
D= Data figure of population of interest
K= Constant
23

24. Fertility Related Statistics
1. Birth Rate
2. General Fertility Rate ( GFR)
3. General Marital Fertility Rate ( GMFR)
4. Age - Specific Fertility Rate
5. Age- Specific Marital Fertility rate
6. Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
7. Total Marital Fertility Rate
8. Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)
9. Net Reproduction Rate ( NRR)
24

25. Fertility Related Statistics
10.Child-Woman Ratio
11.Pregnancy Rate (Ratio)
12.Abortion Rate
13.Abortion Ratio
14.Marriage Rate
25

26. Fertility –Related Statistics
1. Birth Rate = No. of Live Births During The Year X 1000
Estimated Mid-Year Population
2. GFR = No. of Live Births During The Year X 1000
Mid-Year Female Pop. in the Same Area
( Age 15-44 or 49 Yrs)
3. ASFR = The number of live births in a year to 1000 women in any
specified age group.
4. TFR = ∑ASFR X 5
5. GRR = Average number of girls born to a woman if she
experiences the current fertility rate throughout her reproductive
span (15-44 or 49 Yrs), assuming no mortality.
6. NRR = The number of daughters a newborn girl will bear during her
lifetime, assuming fixed age- specific fertility and mortality rates.
26

27. Calculation of TFR
• Divide the population of women of
childbearing age(15 to 45 or 49 years)
• Record the total number of women in each
age group (a)
• Record the total number of live births in
each age group (b)
• Divide (b) by (a) to get ASFR
• TFR=Sum of all age groups ASFR X 5
27

28. Reasons for high mortality
• Acute and chronic food shortages
• Epidemic diseases
• Poor public health conditions
28

29. Causes Of Rapid Mortality Decline
• Increased agriculture production
• Industrialization
• Improved transportation
• Specific reforms
• Control of temperature and humidity
• Public sanitation
• Improved personal hygiene
• Immunology
29

30. Mortality
• Crude death rate (CDR)
• Age specific death rate (ASDR)
• Infant mortality rate (IMR)
• Early neonatal M.R
• Late neonatal M.R
• Post neonatal M.R
• Perinatal mortality rate
• Maternal mortality ratio (MMR)
30

31. Mortality Statistics
• MMR= Total no. of Maternal deaths X1000
Total no. of live births in the same
area and year
• IMR =Total no. of Maternal deaths X1000
Total no. of live births in the same
area and year
• CDR= Total no. of deaths in an year X
Mid year population of that Area
31

32. What is Urban?
• A spatial concentration of people whose
lives are organized around non-
agricultural activities
• Consequences of migration
• Why people migrate ( Push- pull theory)
32

33. Migration and Urbanization
• “The Sole cause of man’s unhappiness is
that he does not know to stay quietly in his
room…
(Pascal,1650)
33

34. Push & Pull Theory
In search of :
• Employment
• Education
• Higher standards of living
• Alternate sources of Income
• Refuge
• Other Targets
34

35. CNMR
Total In-migration – Total out-Migration X 1000
Total mid-year Population
35

36. Consequences of Migration
• For the Migrant
• For the Environment
• For the Donor area
• For the Host area
• For the Country as a whole
36

37. Population Momentum
• The tendency of a population to continue
to grow after replacement level fertility has
been achieved
37

38. Population Equation
• Pn = Po + B - D+ I – E
• Pn = Population at time n
• Po = Population at previous time
• B = All Births
• D = All Deaths
• I = Immigration
• E = Emigration
38

39. Current demographic Scenario
of Pakistan Source: NIPS, July, 2003
Population size in million 148.6
Birth per 1000 pop. 28
Deaths per 1000 pop. 08
Annual pop. Growth Rate 02%
Fertility ( Per woman ) 4.3
Population Doubling Time 35 years
Awareness about contraceptives 96 %
Contraceptive prevalence rate 34 %
Maternal deaths per 100,000 births 350-500
Infant deaths per 1000 births 80
G.N.P per capita 492 39