This document presents on the Harris-Todaro Migration Model and its applicability in Bangladesh. It provides background on the model, which was developed in response to rural-urban migration despite high urban unemployment. The model predicts that expected incomes across rural and urban sectors will equalize when factoring informal work. While the model applies to Bangladesh due to wage differentials and higher earning potential in cities, push factors like natural disasters and marriage are also significant drivers of migration in Bangladesh. Therefore, the Harris-Todaro model explains some migration patterns but not completely for Bangladesh.

1. Welcome
To Our Presentation

2. Harris-Todaro Migration Model and
it’s Applicability in Bangladesh

3. Presented To
Nishad Nasrin
Assistant Professor
Economics Discipline
Khulna University
Khulna.

4. Prepared By…
 Ehsun Newaz (141501)
Mohaiminul Islam (141509)

5. Background of Harris-Todaro Migration Model
 1960s: Rural-to-urban migration despite high levels of urban unemployment
 Failure of Explanation: General equilibrium model: Lewis Model
 1970:John R.Harris and Michael P. Todaro published their famous paper on rural-
to-urban migration; Unemployment and Development: A Two-Sector Analysis
 Harris-Todaro model try to answer the question “WHY RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION
STILL TAKING PLACE DESPITE HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT IN URBAN AREAS?”

6. Introduction of The Theory
 Migration; An economic Decision: migrate on the basis of wages and probability of
unemployment
 Migrants calculate (present value of) urban expected income (or its equivalent) and
move if it exceeds average rural income.
 Predicts that expected incomes will be equated across rural and urban sectors
when taking into account informal sector activities .

7. The Intuition Behind the Model
 The urban minimum wage is set to be higher than the wage rate paid to rural
labour
 This results in a wage differential between the two sectors.
 Rural workers have an incentive to migrate to the urban areas despite of urban
unemployment, because of the potential of higher earnings in the urban sector.
 Such migration will continue as long as there is a possibility for migrants to
increase their income by moving to a city.

8. The Intuition Behind the Model
 Some migrants will have arranged employment before leaving the countryside.
 Others will begin searching for employment only once they have arrived at their
destination.
 Some will necessarily join the pool of urban unemployed
 Even in that case, the presence of them in the city may increase his chance of
finding urban employment there at a later date.
 This explains why there is a continuous flow of migrants observed in developing
countries despite of the high urban unemployment rates.
Continued…

9. Applicability Towards Bangladesh
Some key points:
 Urban wage rate is Held higher
 Wage Differential: manufacturing sector and agricultural sector
 Incentive : Higher earning potential
 Overall: they mainly considered pull factors

10. Applicability Towards Bangladesh…
What we see in Bangladesh:
 Urban wage rate is higher
 Wage differential exists
 Higher earning potential: A good reason

11. …Applicability Towards Bangladesh
BUT !!!
1. Push factors are also responsible;
Natural calamities(3.5%,2011)(River
erosion ,Flood , Storm);
political harassment
2. Marriage(38.7%)
3. Education (4.9%)

12. Trend of Migration in Bangladesh
Source: BBS survey on Population Distribution and Internal Migration in Bangladesh,
November 2015

13. From the above source we
get that…
1. In 2004, a maximum, 38.5%, of internal migration
took place due to employment and business activities,
while in 2011 the maximum 38.7% of internal migration
took place due to marriage.
2 .In the same year, the share of push factors like
natural calamity, family quarrel and tortured or deserted
by spouse is respectively 2.1%, 1.2% and 0.2%.
3. Additionally a maximum, 63.6%, migration occurred
in Khulna division for this reason (marriage).
Continued…

14. Conclusion
 There is a large portion of migrants do follow Harris-Todaro model who search for
better job in terms of greater income,
 It is not 100% concrete for making migration decision in Bangladesh.
 Thus, although it can be concluded from the above evidence that the Harris-
Todaro model is likely to be applicable to most developing countries including
Bangladesh but it do not explain the migration and unemployment problem
completely.

15. Thank You
for Your Patience