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Chapter 4
Extension Services for Equitable Growth:
The Green Revolution in Sub-Saharan
Africa
Introduction
Development microeconomics has shown
that the market mechanism cannot always
guarantee the optimal choice for profit max-
imization under the circumstances of imper-
fect information, high risk, and high transac-
tion cost. These types of phenomena can be
broadly observed in the least developed coun-
tries.
On the other hand, globalization is
sometimes assumed to be an automatic pro-
cess in which economic resources are mobi-
lized globally through the international mar-
ket mechanism and advanced information
technology. However, some countries that
have no comparative advantage cannot at-
tract foreign direct investment, and people
who have little access to advanced informa-
tion technologies become estranged from
the global circulation of knowledge. As seen
in Sub-Saharan Africa (referred to as Africa
hereafter), poor economies tend to be left be-
hind from the benefits of globalization.
Extensionist, who brings new ideas and
technologies to the peripheries of society in
developing countries, is expected to function
as walking transmitter of globalization. For
people trapped by a vacuum of developmen-
tal tools, which include small-scale farmers in
developing countries, extensionist is practical-
ly the only channel to get them.
This chapter begins by explaining the
high demand for modern technology in Afri-
can agriculture. This demand can be met by
agricultural extension services, and develop-
ment with equity can be promoted through
their contributions.
4.1 African Economies and Agricul-
ture
During the years 1980-2000, the average
annual growth rate of aggregate African GDP
Figure 1 Inputs of Land and Labor for Cereal Production in Sub-Saharan Africa
(1000 persons)
(1000 ha)
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 0
land input
labor input
Source: FAOSTAT [2002].
34 Globalization Carried on Human Feet
was 2.19%1
. Because the average annual rate
of population growth was 2.82% in the same
period, the per capita GDP of African people
shrunk at a rate of -0.61% per year. By con-
trast, per capita GDP in India was growing at
an annual rate of 3.64% and in China the rate
was 8.61% in the same period. China and In-
dia tend to dominate the average figures for
developing countries due to their large popu-
lations and production figures. As a result, Af-
rica has increasingly fallen behind the average
figure for developing countries and marginal-
ized in the world.
4.1.1 Ricardian Trap
While Africa's economic performance
has deteriorated, its form of food production
has changed from the 1980s. Figure 1 shows
the cultivated area and labor input2
for cereal
production in Africa. The land area for cereal
production expanded rapidly from the early
1980s, and reached 80 million hectares in the
middle of the 1990s, but then stagnated. A
135% increase of cereal production in Africa
from 1961 to 2000 was brought about main-
ly by the increase of land input; however, it
could not keep pace with population growth
(see Table 1). The land productivity for cere-
al production in Africa grew at a small aver-
Table 1 Changes in the Figures Related to Cereal Production(1960-2000)
Sub-Saharan Africa
(South Africa excluded)
Developing Asia
Latin America & Caribbean
Source: FAOSTAT [2002].
(%)
Cereal
Production
Population
Labor
input
Land input
Land
productivity
135.3
141.7
211.3
191.3
187.6
191.5
116.1
131.3
167.6
175.9
64.5
-0.3
69.4
82.2
12.4
29.5
38.9
32.7
176.9
124.9
Figure 2 Land Productivity of Cereal Production(1961-2000)
(kg/ha)
Developing Asia
Latin America and
Caribbean
Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: FAOSTAT [2002].
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 0
35Chapter 4 Extension Services for Equitable Growth: The Green Revolution in Sub-Saharan Africa
age annual figure of 0.86% during that peri-
od, and at only at 0.09% from 1980.
The cereal yield per land unit area in
Africa is extremely low. It was 1,116 kg/ha
(1,009 kg/ha if South Africa excluded) in
2000, compared to 3,207 kg/ha in develop-
ing Asia, 2,860 kg/ha in Latin America, while
the world average for the same year was 3,070
kg/ha. The gaps in cereal yields between Af-
rica and other regions have been enlarged
through the differences of the speed of land
productivity improvements (see Figure 2).
Considering that the rapid enhance-
ment of agricultural productivity with modern
Figure 3 Land Productivity and Area of the Cereal Production in Sub-Saharan
Africa(kg/ha) (million ha)
land productivity
y1=-0.16t2
+13.7t+702.4
land area
y2=-0.03t2
+-0.5t+45.7
Source: FAOSTAT [2002].
1,050
1,000
950
900
850
800
750
700
80
70
60
50
40
61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 0
(kg/ha)
land productivity
y1=-0.27t2
+46t+1092.6
land area
y2=-0.04t2
+2.5t+266.4
Source: FAOSTAT [2002].
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
310
300
290
280
270
260
61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 0
(million ha)
Figure 4 Land Productivity and Area of the Cereal Production in Developing Asia
36 Globalization Carried on Human Feet
technology paves the way for 'industrial revo-
lution' and then sustainable development, as
indicated by economic history and neo-clas-
sical economics, it can be said that African
economy is still in the pre-industrial revolu-
tion age.
Source: FAOSTAT [2002].
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 0
Figure 5 Cereal Production per Farmer
(kg)
Sub-Saharan Africa
Developing Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
excluding South Africa
(kg/ha)
1,300
1,250
1,200
1,150
1,100
1,050
1,000
950
900
850
800
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0
Real economic growth rate
Land productivity
Sources: World Bank [1996-2002a] [1992-2000b], IMF [1996-2002], EIU [2002], FAOSTAT [2002].
Figure 6 Real Economic Growth Rate and the Land Productivity of Cereal
in Sub-Saharan Africa
37Chapter 4 Extension Services for Equitable Growth: The Green Revolution in Sub-Saharan Africa
As shown in Figure 3, the rate of in-
crease of land productivity for cereal in Afri-
ca has been quite slow and diminishing, while
the expansion of land input has accelerated.
This extensive pattern is completely opposite
to the intensive development observed for
Asian cereal production (see Figure 4).
The development pattern of African
food production can be understood along
the idea in classical economics that economic
growth will be restricted by land constraints,
or what is known as a 'Ricardian Trap.' On the
other hand, the Asian pattern runs along the
neo-classical idea that agricultural productiv-
ity should increase with technical input to at-
tain an optimal growth path.
As shown in Figure 5, cereal production
volume per farmer in Africa has decreased as
a result of the pattern of extensive develop-
ment. Land productivity ceased to improve,
and then total production stagnated, ap-
proaching a non-growing 'stationary state' in
the late 1990s.
In the Ricardian Trap, the African econ-
omy stopped growing as well (see Figure 6).
The poverty problem in Africa was left to be-
come more serious year by year, under its
population pressure.
4.1.2 Unstable Production
In addition to its extensive form of cere-
al production, African agriculture is also char-
acterized by instability. Figure 7 shows year-
ly changes of cereal yields in developing Asia
and Africa. The violent fluctuations in Africa
stand in great contrast to the stable growth in
Asia.
The results of the regressions in Table 2
indicate that the following year's production
level can be anticipated with high probabili-
ty either from the current level or from a time
trend in China and in Asia generally, but that
it is almost impossible in Zimbabwe to make
such predictions.
Significant fluctuations and instabili-
ty of production make a business risky; there-
fore agriculture is a quite risky business in Af-
rica. Accordingly, the investment decisions of
farmers are depressed and land productivity
can hardly be expected to increase. Farmers
will prefer to diversify their income as insur-
ance, at the sacrifice of specialization on agri-
culture. Because these behaviors are quite ra-
tional, the vicious circle cannot be removed
without external intervention.
Source: FAOSTAT [2002].
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
62 65 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 1
Developing
Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 7 Changes in Cereal Yield(Developing Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa)
38 Globalization Carried on Human Feet
4.1.3 Expanding Food Import
In the absence of intensive develop-
ment, the cereal production sector is sup-
posed to absorb nearly 50% of the total labor
force in Africa, and its labor input volume is
still increasing3
. It is estimated that the labor
input for cereal grew at an annual average
rate of 4.19% from 1980 to 2000, but Africa
has nevertheless fallen into food deficiency.
Figure 8 shows Africa's cereal imports
and their percentage of domestic supply. Af-
rica has been a net importer from the late
1970s, and the volume has expanded rapidly;
it now exceeds that of China. Cereal imports
in the drought periods of 1983-4 and 1992-3
were enormous, but the food deficiency in Af-
rica must be recognized as a chronic structur-
al problem of the African economy. Even in
1997, when there was normal rainfall in gen-
eral, the cereal deficiency was 17 kg per capi-
ta (19 kg excluding South Africa), nearly ten
times the Chinese figure. The cereal trade
deficit burdens Africa as a whole with 1% of
total GDP; the figure is 9% in Eritrea, and
10% in Sierra Leone. Based on the current
level of cereal yield, Africa would not be able
to attain the world average cereal production
of 358 kg per capita (1997) even if every sin-
gle African gave up his or her occupation and
engaged in cereal production. The only hope
lies in proper intervention to improve land
productivity.
4.2 The Agricultural Revolution and
Extension Services
The potential of the African economy is
severely constrained by its limited capacity for
food production. Subsistence farmers, which
Table 2 Coeffients of the Regressions on
Cereal Yield
Sub-Saharan Africa
Lag variable Time Trend
Developing Asia
Lag variable Time trend
0.717
(6.55)
0.531
0.008
(7.95)
0.618
0.004
(0.85)
0.018
0.995
(83.06)
0.995
0.982
(55.75)
0.988
0.027
(51.25)
0.985
0.034
(29.22)
0.956
R
2
0.037
(0.23)
0.001R
2
Zimbabwe
Lag variable Time trend
China
Lag variable Time trend
Note: Lag variable is b in Yt = a+bYt-1, time trend is b' in LN(Yt)
= a'+b't, and Yt is the cereal yield per unit area in t year.
t-value is in parentheses.
61 64 67 70 73 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 0
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
76
Deficient rate
Import volume
(million tons)
Source: FAOSTAT [2002].
Figure 8 Cereal Imports and Deficiency Rate in Sub-Saharan Africa
39Chapter 4 Extension Services for Equitable Growth: The Green Revolution in Sub-Saharan Africa
make up the majority of African people, re-
main in poverty even in high-growth coun-
tries like Botswana4
. Fundamentally, the poor
economic performances and serious poverty
in Africa can be attributed considerably to the
extensive form of food production, i.e., the
low-input, low-yield agriculture.
4.2.1 The Japanese Experience
However, the extensive agriculture seen
in Africa today was common to all the devel-
oped countries before the modern agricultur-
al revolution, and the developing countries in
Asia and Latin America before the Green Rev-
olution. Figure 9 shows real economic growth
and rice yields in Japan from 1885. While with
paddy field cultivation, a relatively good cli-
mate, and fertile soil conditions, 2 t/ha was
achieved even in the 19th century, the speed
of improvement in rice yields was 0.81% as an
annual average before the Second World War.
This is as slow as cereal yields in Africa, which
was 0.86% on average from 1960 to 2000.
However, the rice yield level in Japan grew
rapidly up to 6 t/ha during the high-growth
period that lasted for almost 20 years from
the late 1950s to the early 1970s (marked by
a square in Figure 9). During those years, the
annual average rate of improvement of the
rice yield was 2.48%, which was as high as in
other Asian countries during the Green Rev-
olution. The double-digit growth rates in the
Japanese economy were made possible in the
meantime by the intensive development of
food production, based on the fast and steady
progress in the land productivity of staple
foods.
As a result, the share of agricultural em-
ployment in the total labor force decreased
from over 60% in the 19th century to 9.4%
in 1980, and the urbanization of Japanese so-
ciety proceeded rapidly, with a large number
of workers moving from rural districts to be
employed in the emerging industries. At the
same time, the improvements in agricultur-
al productivity allowed farmers' incomes to
keep up with their counterparts in the manu-
facturing sector. And the income distribution
among industries and between urban and ru-
ral areas was improved.
In carrying out the modern agricultural
revolution mentioned above, the government
played a pivotal role in Japan. Intentional pol-
Rice yield
(moving average)
Real economic growth rate
(moving average)
95 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95
Source: Statistics Bureau [1988] [1997], IDE [1969], Bank of Japan [2002].
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
(kg/ha)
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Figure 9 Real Economic Growth and Rice Yield in Japan(1885-2000)
85
40 Globalization Carried on Human Feet
icies started in the 1880s to increase rice pro-
duction using technological innovation, soon
after the Meiji Restoration. However, it was
in the 1930s that a nationwide network of ag-
ricultural research institutes and extension
system was completed in the public sector
(Tanaka [1998]). Peasants' movement, which
had forced the government to recognize the
need to improve their living standards, large-
ly promoted this process. Until the end of
the 1930s, the number of extension services
was raised over 14,000 for 6 millions farms at-
taining national coverage, and artificially im-
proved varieties had diffused on more than
30% of the total cultivated area, replacing tra-
ditional ones (Kiyokawa [1995: 53]). Figure
10 shows the diffusion of improved rice vari-
eties in Aomori prefecture before the Second
World War, as an example.
After the end of the war, these improved
varieties were themselves quickly replaced by
new varieties, exemplified by the Norin se-
ries, which were developed in the nation-
al research institutes. The rapid diffusion of
modern varieties equipped with cold-weather
resistance in the northern parts of Japan was
the most impressive part of this wave, which
transformed those districts into granaries.
While the land reform and the democratiza-
tion of the social system under the foreign oc-
cupation in the immediate postwar years def-
initely promoted further progress in Japan's
agricultural revolution, the well-established
extension system built by the new govern-
ment played an indispensable role in diffus-
ing the new varieties and technologies at the
grassroots level. A total of 1,586 diffusion sta-
tions were established, covering all rural dis-
tricts keeping the number of extension servic-
es to a rate of 500 farms per staff.
These efforts were accompanied by in-
frastructure building. The accelerated de-
velopment of the manufacturing sector is a
well-known part of Japanese history after the
Second World War, but even greater pub-
lic investment was poured into the agricul-
ture sector. During the period from 1955 to
1975, 49.2% of industrial development expen-
ditures from the national budget were spent
on agriculture, forestry, and fishery on annu-
al average, far exceeding the 18.0% for man-
ufacturing and mining and the 11.2% for
transportation and communication (Statistics
Bureau, Government of Japan [1988]).
4.2.2 Extension Service as a Public
Good
The importance of the public sector in
bringing about the modern agricultural rev-
Kameno-o
Figure 10 Diffusion of Improved Rice Varieties(Aomori, Japan)
Riku-u No.132
Norin No.1
(1000 ha)
40
30
20
10
1920 1930 1940
Source: Reprinted from Kiyokawa [1995: 54].
41Chapter 4 Extension Services for Equitable Growth: The Green Revolution in Sub-Saharan Africa
olution can be verified in countries other
than Japan. In the modernized agriculture,
its technologies are developed in national
centers and diffused to production sites, in-
stead of being inherited from former gener-
ations. This radical transformation requires
huge costs and institutions, which cannot be
financed by the private sector nor spontane-
ously created by the market mechanism. The
extension system by its very nature, as an in-
tentional diffusion using public money, nev-
er targets the perfect-information state that
would be a prerequisite for the market mech-
anism.
In fact, all developed countries have es-
tablished their own types of contrivance for
agricultural modernization. In the United
Kingdom, the pioneer of the modern agricul-
tural revolution, facilities for agricultural re-
search and extension were privately initiat-
ed as with the industrial revolution, but were
later nationalized under the central govern-
ment. In Germany, the pioneer in establish-
ing public apparatuses for the agricultural
revolution, agricultural schools under state
governments are functioning as centers for
technological development and extension.
The German style was imported into the Unit-
ed State, where a dual federal-state system was
built, with land-grant universities in each state
functioning as centers of research and exten-
sion (Ruttan [2001: 208-211]). In the case of
developing countries, in addition to the in-
puts from the colonial era, full-scale exten-
sion systems were created in the central gov-
ernments after the Second World War with
assistance from donors. China independently
developed an agricultural research and exten-
sion system and succeeded in creating hybrid-
rice varieties in the 1970s. These varieties be-
came pivotal components of the agricultural
revolution there (Tajima [1989]).
Public intervention is essential for ag-
ricultural revolutions. Its functions range
widely, from the development of agricultur-
al science to building extension systems, in-
frastructure building, securing agricultur-
al inputs, and arrangement of agricultural
finance, etc. Among them, extension servic-
es have a special significance as human con-
tacts carried out with the purpose of channel-
ing profitable technologies to the grassroots.
Such services can contribute greatly to devel-
opment with equity, and they do not neglect
small peasants in deep rural areas.
4.3 Green Revolution in Africa?
As mentioned in Section 1, Africa has
seen little intensive development in agricul-
ture and is severely lacking in food produc-
tion capacity. While the adoption rate of
modern cereal varieties has increased in very
recent years, the expected profits have not yet
materialized (see Figure 2). More than half
of the modern varieties introduced to Afri-
can fields were made by crossing local variet-
ies with others created in international agri-
cultural research institutes (Evenson [2002]),
therefore, it can be said that African farmers
will become connected to the global commu-
nity through the diffusion of modern variet-
ies. Such connections must be strengthened
before food production in Africa begins to
grow.
4.3.1 Diffusion Model
A number of empirical works on mod-
ern agricultural technology diffusion in Afri-
can countries indicate that there are several
determinants of whether farmers adopt it (for
example, Adesina and Zinnah [1993], Adesi-
na and Baidu-Forson [1995], Adugna [1997],
Mbata [1997], Negatu and Parikh [1999],
Doss and Morris [2001], Ndjeunga and Ban-
tilan [2002]). These works employed the Pro-
bit model (or Tobit model) to measure the in-
fluence of various factors on the adoption of
modern varieties or chemical fertilizers. They
looked at the characteristics of the individual
farmer, locality, and targeted variety, with the
frequency of contact with extension services,
and gained very instructive information. Ac-
42 Globalization Carried on Human Feet
cording to these works, the extension variable
has a strong influence in many cases along
with other important factors.
The diffusion theory in economics has
progressed from the classical one, which
said that new products would be adopted at
a speed determined by their profitability on
a time-axis shaping logistic curve, to the cur-
rent Probit approach that analyzes various de-
terminants of adoption, as mentioned above.
The later implies that the adoption rate will
go up if the determinants are improved. With
regard to locality, for example, if unstable
rainfall prevents farmers from adopting mod-
ern varieties, adoption will take place along
the deployment of irrigation schemes. And
with regard to the characteristics of farmers,
if their knowledge level influences adoption,
expansion of extension services will raise the
rate. Accordingly, the diffusion of modern
technologies will accelerate as policy efforts
are energetically made to improve the situa-
tions surrounding farmers.
The dynamics of diffusion should be
measured by looking at time and area expan-
sion. Therefore, some determinants explored
by Probit analysis can be translated into 'vari-
ables' that will change with policy input. In
the unfavorable situations of African rural ar-
eas, policy efforts are needed to accelerate
the diffusion of high-yield varieties; those pol-
icies must be given the highest priority on the
list of development issues.
4.3.2 NERICA
In 1994, the West Africa Rice Develop-
ment Association (WARDA) finally succeed-
ed in a hybridization project between Asian
rice (Oryza sativa) and African rice (Ory-
za glaberima), with financing from the Japa-
nese government. The newly created varieties
were named 'New Rice for Africa' (NERICA).
NERICA is a ideal combination of the char-
acteristics of both parents: a high and sta-
ble yield (as high as 2.5 t/ha at low input and
5 t/ha with a minimum increase in fertiliz-
er use), early maturity (90-100 days), drought
tolerance, resistance to diseases, responsive-
ness to mineral fertilization, high protein con-
tent, and a taste and aroma favored by local
people (WARDA [2001]).
In Africa, eight countries produce rice
as a major crop: Comoros, Cote d'Ivoire,
Guinée, Guiné-Bissau, Madagascar, Maurita-
nia, Liberia, and Sierra-Leone. Mali, Nigeria,
Diffusion curve with low policy input
Adoptionrate
→Time
Figure 11 Diffusion Curve
Diffusion curve with high policy input
43Chapter 4 Extension Services for Equitable Growth: The Green Revolution in Sub-Saharan Africa
Tchad, Sénégal, Tanzania, Ghana, and Gam-
bia produce more than 10 kg of rice per per-
son. However, no country is self-sufficient,
and more than 30% of total rice consumption
is imported, at a cost of over 1 billion dollars
in 2000.
NERICA began to diffuse in West Afri-
ca from 1996, and is now produced in Cote
d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinée, and Togo under the
supervision of national extension agencies
and an international NGO involved in exten-
sion, namely Sasakawa Global 2000 in Guinée.
The Japanese government, which will
hold the third Tokyo International Confer-
ence on African Development (TICAD III)
in September 2003, has a strong desire to dif-
fuse NERICA for alleviating poverty in Africa,
in collaboration with an international consor-
tium5
. The recognition of the importance of
agriculture, and especially the food produc-
tion sector, has been enhanced by this work.
In this context, extension services are indis-
pensable. They are real arms which can bring
new technical inputs to production sites in
distant rural area, monitor their performance
and collect information.
Conclusion
In order to vitalize the African economy
and alleviate poverty there, subsistence farm-
ers must be set as the main targets of develop-
ment policy and development cooperation.
Extension services are the most reliable, and
almost only apparatus that can reach them.
They reduce the barriers of 'imperfect infor-
mation' to farmers, and can lower transaction
costs if they assist in the circulation of need-
ed input. Farmers will be largely rescued from
high-risk states through the technologies that
these services bring in.
It is not impossible to overcome the un-
favorable conditions in African agriculture,
but will require international cooperation uti-
lizing proper technologies. This requirement
comes from the reality of African rural com-
munities. Therefore, extension services are
expected to play a major role in attaining glo-
balization with equity.
(Katsumi HIRANO)
Notes:
1. These calculations here were based on 41 countries
for which GDP time-series are available for this
period (World Bank [1996-2002a][1992-2000b], IMF
[1996-2002]). Those 41 countries accounted for 99% of
total GDP in Africa and 95% of its total population.
2. Labor input was estimated from:
   [economic active population in agriculture] x [cereal
production area / arable and permanent crop
area]based on the assumption that the amount of
labor input by crop is roughly proportional to the
land area assigned to each crop.
3. This does not necessarily mean that the number
of full-time cereal producers is growing, but that
many people embarked on food cereal production in
addition to their own businesses. While inter-cropping,
including for food crops, was historically prevalent
over the continent, many fieldwork and studies have
reported that food cereal production was expanding
as a survival strategy in the economic plight after the
1980s. It took various forms including a shortening of
the cycle of shifting cultivation, expansion to marginal
lands, and "urban agriculture" (Cromwell [1992], Ikeno
[1996], Shimada [1996], Yoshida [1999], et al.).
4. Botswana recorded one of the highest economic
growths in the world, 8.99% as a yearly average,
during 1980-2000. 46% of its GDP comes from
the mineral sector, sustained by diamonds, which
employs just 0.9% of total labor; 45% of the people
make their livelihood through agriculture. The cereal
yield in Botswana is as low as the African average
and is unstable. The Gini coefficient of the country
was 54.21 in 1986 (Deininger and Lyn [1996]).
5. It is called the 'NERICA Consortium'. It is composed
of national agricultural research and extension
organizations in participating African countries,
Japan, UNDP, the World Bank, the African
Development Bank, the Rockefeller Foundation,
USAID, and NGOs including Sasakawa Global 2000
(WARDA [2002]).
References :
Adesina, Akinwumi A. and Moses M. Zinnah [1993] "Tech-
nology Characteristics, Farmers' Perceptions and Adop-
tion Decisions: A Tobit model application in Sierra Le-
one," No.9, pp.297-311.
Adesina, Akinwumi A. and Jojo Baidu-Forson [1995] "Farm-
ers' Perceptions and Adoption of New Agricultural
Technology: Evidence from analysis in Burkina Faso
and Guinea, West Africa,"
No.13, pp.1-9.
Adugna, Teressa [1997] "Factors Influencing the Adoption
and Intensity of use of Fertilizer: The case of Lume dis-
trict, central Ethiopia,"
(Zeitschrift Fur auslandische Land-
wirtschaft), Vol.36 No.3, pp.173-187.
Bank of Japan [2002]
44 Globalization Carried on Human Feet
No.42, Tokyo.
Cromwell, Elizabeth [1992] "Malawi," in Alex Duncan and
John Howell eds.,
London: Overseas Development Institute.
Deininger, Kaus and Lyn Squire [1996] "A New Data Set
Measuring Income Inequality,"
Vol.10 No.3, pp.565-591.
Doss, Cheryl R. and Michael L. Morris [2001] "How dose
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Green Revolution Extension Services Promote Growth in Africa

  • 1. Chapter 4 Extension Services for Equitable Growth: The Green Revolution in Sub-Saharan Africa Introduction Development microeconomics has shown that the market mechanism cannot always guarantee the optimal choice for profit max- imization under the circumstances of imper- fect information, high risk, and high transac- tion cost. These types of phenomena can be broadly observed in the least developed coun- tries. On the other hand, globalization is sometimes assumed to be an automatic pro- cess in which economic resources are mobi- lized globally through the international mar- ket mechanism and advanced information technology. However, some countries that have no comparative advantage cannot at- tract foreign direct investment, and people who have little access to advanced informa- tion technologies become estranged from the global circulation of knowledge. As seen in Sub-Saharan Africa (referred to as Africa hereafter), poor economies tend to be left be- hind from the benefits of globalization. Extensionist, who brings new ideas and technologies to the peripheries of society in developing countries, is expected to function as walking transmitter of globalization. For people trapped by a vacuum of developmen- tal tools, which include small-scale farmers in developing countries, extensionist is practical- ly the only channel to get them. This chapter begins by explaining the high demand for modern technology in Afri- can agriculture. This demand can be met by agricultural extension services, and develop- ment with equity can be promoted through their contributions. 4.1 African Economies and Agricul- ture During the years 1980-2000, the average annual growth rate of aggregate African GDP Figure 1 Inputs of Land and Labor for Cereal Production in Sub-Saharan Africa (1000 persons) (1000 ha) 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 0 land input labor input Source: FAOSTAT [2002].
  • 2. 34 Globalization Carried on Human Feet was 2.19%1 . Because the average annual rate of population growth was 2.82% in the same period, the per capita GDP of African people shrunk at a rate of -0.61% per year. By con- trast, per capita GDP in India was growing at an annual rate of 3.64% and in China the rate was 8.61% in the same period. China and In- dia tend to dominate the average figures for developing countries due to their large popu- lations and production figures. As a result, Af- rica has increasingly fallen behind the average figure for developing countries and marginal- ized in the world. 4.1.1 Ricardian Trap While Africa's economic performance has deteriorated, its form of food production has changed from the 1980s. Figure 1 shows the cultivated area and labor input2 for cereal production in Africa. The land area for cereal production expanded rapidly from the early 1980s, and reached 80 million hectares in the middle of the 1990s, but then stagnated. A 135% increase of cereal production in Africa from 1961 to 2000 was brought about main- ly by the increase of land input; however, it could not keep pace with population growth (see Table 1). The land productivity for cere- al production in Africa grew at a small aver- Table 1 Changes in the Figures Related to Cereal Production(1960-2000) Sub-Saharan Africa (South Africa excluded) Developing Asia Latin America & Caribbean Source: FAOSTAT [2002]. (%) Cereal Production Population Labor input Land input Land productivity 135.3 141.7 211.3 191.3 187.6 191.5 116.1 131.3 167.6 175.9 64.5 -0.3 69.4 82.2 12.4 29.5 38.9 32.7 176.9 124.9 Figure 2 Land Productivity of Cereal Production(1961-2000) (kg/ha) Developing Asia Latin America and Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa Source: FAOSTAT [2002]. 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 0
  • 3. 35Chapter 4 Extension Services for Equitable Growth: The Green Revolution in Sub-Saharan Africa age annual figure of 0.86% during that peri- od, and at only at 0.09% from 1980. The cereal yield per land unit area in Africa is extremely low. It was 1,116 kg/ha (1,009 kg/ha if South Africa excluded) in 2000, compared to 3,207 kg/ha in develop- ing Asia, 2,860 kg/ha in Latin America, while the world average for the same year was 3,070 kg/ha. The gaps in cereal yields between Af- rica and other regions have been enlarged through the differences of the speed of land productivity improvements (see Figure 2). Considering that the rapid enhance- ment of agricultural productivity with modern Figure 3 Land Productivity and Area of the Cereal Production in Sub-Saharan Africa(kg/ha) (million ha) land productivity y1=-0.16t2 +13.7t+702.4 land area y2=-0.03t2 +-0.5t+45.7 Source: FAOSTAT [2002]. 1,050 1,000 950 900 850 800 750 700 80 70 60 50 40 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 0 (kg/ha) land productivity y1=-0.27t2 +46t+1092.6 land area y2=-0.04t2 +2.5t+266.4 Source: FAOSTAT [2002]. 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 310 300 290 280 270 260 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 0 (million ha) Figure 4 Land Productivity and Area of the Cereal Production in Developing Asia
  • 4. 36 Globalization Carried on Human Feet technology paves the way for 'industrial revo- lution' and then sustainable development, as indicated by economic history and neo-clas- sical economics, it can be said that African economy is still in the pre-industrial revolu- tion age. Source: FAOSTAT [2002]. 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 0 Figure 5 Cereal Production per Farmer (kg) Sub-Saharan Africa Developing Asia Sub-Saharan Africa excluding South Africa (kg/ha) 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1,000 950 900 850 800 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 Real economic growth rate Land productivity Sources: World Bank [1996-2002a] [1992-2000b], IMF [1996-2002], EIU [2002], FAOSTAT [2002]. Figure 6 Real Economic Growth Rate and the Land Productivity of Cereal in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 5. 37Chapter 4 Extension Services for Equitable Growth: The Green Revolution in Sub-Saharan Africa As shown in Figure 3, the rate of in- crease of land productivity for cereal in Afri- ca has been quite slow and diminishing, while the expansion of land input has accelerated. This extensive pattern is completely opposite to the intensive development observed for Asian cereal production (see Figure 4). The development pattern of African food production can be understood along the idea in classical economics that economic growth will be restricted by land constraints, or what is known as a 'Ricardian Trap.' On the other hand, the Asian pattern runs along the neo-classical idea that agricultural productiv- ity should increase with technical input to at- tain an optimal growth path. As shown in Figure 5, cereal production volume per farmer in Africa has decreased as a result of the pattern of extensive develop- ment. Land productivity ceased to improve, and then total production stagnated, ap- proaching a non-growing 'stationary state' in the late 1990s. In the Ricardian Trap, the African econ- omy stopped growing as well (see Figure 6). The poverty problem in Africa was left to be- come more serious year by year, under its population pressure. 4.1.2 Unstable Production In addition to its extensive form of cere- al production, African agriculture is also char- acterized by instability. Figure 7 shows year- ly changes of cereal yields in developing Asia and Africa. The violent fluctuations in Africa stand in great contrast to the stable growth in Asia. The results of the regressions in Table 2 indicate that the following year's production level can be anticipated with high probabili- ty either from the current level or from a time trend in China and in Asia generally, but that it is almost impossible in Zimbabwe to make such predictions. Significant fluctuations and instabili- ty of production make a business risky; there- fore agriculture is a quite risky business in Af- rica. Accordingly, the investment decisions of farmers are depressed and land productivity can hardly be expected to increase. Farmers will prefer to diversify their income as insur- ance, at the sacrifice of specialization on agri- culture. Because these behaviors are quite ra- tional, the vicious circle cannot be removed without external intervention. Source: FAOSTAT [2002]. 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 62 65 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 1 Developing Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Figure 7 Changes in Cereal Yield(Developing Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa)
  • 6. 38 Globalization Carried on Human Feet 4.1.3 Expanding Food Import In the absence of intensive develop- ment, the cereal production sector is sup- posed to absorb nearly 50% of the total labor force in Africa, and its labor input volume is still increasing3 . It is estimated that the labor input for cereal grew at an annual average rate of 4.19% from 1980 to 2000, but Africa has nevertheless fallen into food deficiency. Figure 8 shows Africa's cereal imports and their percentage of domestic supply. Af- rica has been a net importer from the late 1970s, and the volume has expanded rapidly; it now exceeds that of China. Cereal imports in the drought periods of 1983-4 and 1992-3 were enormous, but the food deficiency in Af- rica must be recognized as a chronic structur- al problem of the African economy. Even in 1997, when there was normal rainfall in gen- eral, the cereal deficiency was 17 kg per capi- ta (19 kg excluding South Africa), nearly ten times the Chinese figure. The cereal trade deficit burdens Africa as a whole with 1% of total GDP; the figure is 9% in Eritrea, and 10% in Sierra Leone. Based on the current level of cereal yield, Africa would not be able to attain the world average cereal production of 358 kg per capita (1997) even if every sin- gle African gave up his or her occupation and engaged in cereal production. The only hope lies in proper intervention to improve land productivity. 4.2 The Agricultural Revolution and Extension Services The potential of the African economy is severely constrained by its limited capacity for food production. Subsistence farmers, which Table 2 Coeffients of the Regressions on Cereal Yield Sub-Saharan Africa Lag variable Time Trend Developing Asia Lag variable Time trend 0.717 (6.55) 0.531 0.008 (7.95) 0.618 0.004 (0.85) 0.018 0.995 (83.06) 0.995 0.982 (55.75) 0.988 0.027 (51.25) 0.985 0.034 (29.22) 0.956 R 2 0.037 (0.23) 0.001R 2 Zimbabwe Lag variable Time trend China Lag variable Time trend Note: Lag variable is b in Yt = a+bYt-1, time trend is b' in LN(Yt) = a'+b't, and Yt is the cereal yield per unit area in t year. t-value is in parentheses. 61 64 67 70 73 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 0 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% 76 Deficient rate Import volume (million tons) Source: FAOSTAT [2002]. Figure 8 Cereal Imports and Deficiency Rate in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 7. 39Chapter 4 Extension Services for Equitable Growth: The Green Revolution in Sub-Saharan Africa make up the majority of African people, re- main in poverty even in high-growth coun- tries like Botswana4 . Fundamentally, the poor economic performances and serious poverty in Africa can be attributed considerably to the extensive form of food production, i.e., the low-input, low-yield agriculture. 4.2.1 The Japanese Experience However, the extensive agriculture seen in Africa today was common to all the devel- oped countries before the modern agricultur- al revolution, and the developing countries in Asia and Latin America before the Green Rev- olution. Figure 9 shows real economic growth and rice yields in Japan from 1885. While with paddy field cultivation, a relatively good cli- mate, and fertile soil conditions, 2 t/ha was achieved even in the 19th century, the speed of improvement in rice yields was 0.81% as an annual average before the Second World War. This is as slow as cereal yields in Africa, which was 0.86% on average from 1960 to 2000. However, the rice yield level in Japan grew rapidly up to 6 t/ha during the high-growth period that lasted for almost 20 years from the late 1950s to the early 1970s (marked by a square in Figure 9). During those years, the annual average rate of improvement of the rice yield was 2.48%, which was as high as in other Asian countries during the Green Rev- olution. The double-digit growth rates in the Japanese economy were made possible in the meantime by the intensive development of food production, based on the fast and steady progress in the land productivity of staple foods. As a result, the share of agricultural em- ployment in the total labor force decreased from over 60% in the 19th century to 9.4% in 1980, and the urbanization of Japanese so- ciety proceeded rapidly, with a large number of workers moving from rural districts to be employed in the emerging industries. At the same time, the improvements in agricultur- al productivity allowed farmers' incomes to keep up with their counterparts in the manu- facturing sector. And the income distribution among industries and between urban and ru- ral areas was improved. In carrying out the modern agricultural revolution mentioned above, the government played a pivotal role in Japan. Intentional pol- Rice yield (moving average) Real economic growth rate (moving average) 95 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 Source: Statistics Bureau [1988] [1997], IDE [1969], Bank of Japan [2002]. 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% (kg/ha) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Figure 9 Real Economic Growth and Rice Yield in Japan(1885-2000) 85
  • 8. 40 Globalization Carried on Human Feet icies started in the 1880s to increase rice pro- duction using technological innovation, soon after the Meiji Restoration. However, it was in the 1930s that a nationwide network of ag- ricultural research institutes and extension system was completed in the public sector (Tanaka [1998]). Peasants' movement, which had forced the government to recognize the need to improve their living standards, large- ly promoted this process. Until the end of the 1930s, the number of extension services was raised over 14,000 for 6 millions farms at- taining national coverage, and artificially im- proved varieties had diffused on more than 30% of the total cultivated area, replacing tra- ditional ones (Kiyokawa [1995: 53]). Figure 10 shows the diffusion of improved rice vari- eties in Aomori prefecture before the Second World War, as an example. After the end of the war, these improved varieties were themselves quickly replaced by new varieties, exemplified by the Norin se- ries, which were developed in the nation- al research institutes. The rapid diffusion of modern varieties equipped with cold-weather resistance in the northern parts of Japan was the most impressive part of this wave, which transformed those districts into granaries. While the land reform and the democratiza- tion of the social system under the foreign oc- cupation in the immediate postwar years def- initely promoted further progress in Japan's agricultural revolution, the well-established extension system built by the new govern- ment played an indispensable role in diffus- ing the new varieties and technologies at the grassroots level. A total of 1,586 diffusion sta- tions were established, covering all rural dis- tricts keeping the number of extension servic- es to a rate of 500 farms per staff. These efforts were accompanied by in- frastructure building. The accelerated de- velopment of the manufacturing sector is a well-known part of Japanese history after the Second World War, but even greater pub- lic investment was poured into the agricul- ture sector. During the period from 1955 to 1975, 49.2% of industrial development expen- ditures from the national budget were spent on agriculture, forestry, and fishery on annu- al average, far exceeding the 18.0% for man- ufacturing and mining and the 11.2% for transportation and communication (Statistics Bureau, Government of Japan [1988]). 4.2.2 Extension Service as a Public Good The importance of the public sector in bringing about the modern agricultural rev- Kameno-o Figure 10 Diffusion of Improved Rice Varieties(Aomori, Japan) Riku-u No.132 Norin No.1 (1000 ha) 40 30 20 10 1920 1930 1940 Source: Reprinted from Kiyokawa [1995: 54].
  • 9. 41Chapter 4 Extension Services for Equitable Growth: The Green Revolution in Sub-Saharan Africa olution can be verified in countries other than Japan. In the modernized agriculture, its technologies are developed in national centers and diffused to production sites, in- stead of being inherited from former gener- ations. This radical transformation requires huge costs and institutions, which cannot be financed by the private sector nor spontane- ously created by the market mechanism. The extension system by its very nature, as an in- tentional diffusion using public money, nev- er targets the perfect-information state that would be a prerequisite for the market mech- anism. In fact, all developed countries have es- tablished their own types of contrivance for agricultural modernization. In the United Kingdom, the pioneer of the modern agricul- tural revolution, facilities for agricultural re- search and extension were privately initiat- ed as with the industrial revolution, but were later nationalized under the central govern- ment. In Germany, the pioneer in establish- ing public apparatuses for the agricultural revolution, agricultural schools under state governments are functioning as centers for technological development and extension. The German style was imported into the Unit- ed State, where a dual federal-state system was built, with land-grant universities in each state functioning as centers of research and exten- sion (Ruttan [2001: 208-211]). In the case of developing countries, in addition to the in- puts from the colonial era, full-scale exten- sion systems were created in the central gov- ernments after the Second World War with assistance from donors. China independently developed an agricultural research and exten- sion system and succeeded in creating hybrid- rice varieties in the 1970s. These varieties be- came pivotal components of the agricultural revolution there (Tajima [1989]). Public intervention is essential for ag- ricultural revolutions. Its functions range widely, from the development of agricultur- al science to building extension systems, in- frastructure building, securing agricultur- al inputs, and arrangement of agricultural finance, etc. Among them, extension servic- es have a special significance as human con- tacts carried out with the purpose of channel- ing profitable technologies to the grassroots. Such services can contribute greatly to devel- opment with equity, and they do not neglect small peasants in deep rural areas. 4.3 Green Revolution in Africa? As mentioned in Section 1, Africa has seen little intensive development in agricul- ture and is severely lacking in food produc- tion capacity. While the adoption rate of modern cereal varieties has increased in very recent years, the expected profits have not yet materialized (see Figure 2). More than half of the modern varieties introduced to Afri- can fields were made by crossing local variet- ies with others created in international agri- cultural research institutes (Evenson [2002]), therefore, it can be said that African farmers will become connected to the global commu- nity through the diffusion of modern variet- ies. Such connections must be strengthened before food production in Africa begins to grow. 4.3.1 Diffusion Model A number of empirical works on mod- ern agricultural technology diffusion in Afri- can countries indicate that there are several determinants of whether farmers adopt it (for example, Adesina and Zinnah [1993], Adesi- na and Baidu-Forson [1995], Adugna [1997], Mbata [1997], Negatu and Parikh [1999], Doss and Morris [2001], Ndjeunga and Ban- tilan [2002]). These works employed the Pro- bit model (or Tobit model) to measure the in- fluence of various factors on the adoption of modern varieties or chemical fertilizers. They looked at the characteristics of the individual farmer, locality, and targeted variety, with the frequency of contact with extension services, and gained very instructive information. Ac-
  • 10. 42 Globalization Carried on Human Feet cording to these works, the extension variable has a strong influence in many cases along with other important factors. The diffusion theory in economics has progressed from the classical one, which said that new products would be adopted at a speed determined by their profitability on a time-axis shaping logistic curve, to the cur- rent Probit approach that analyzes various de- terminants of adoption, as mentioned above. The later implies that the adoption rate will go up if the determinants are improved. With regard to locality, for example, if unstable rainfall prevents farmers from adopting mod- ern varieties, adoption will take place along the deployment of irrigation schemes. And with regard to the characteristics of farmers, if their knowledge level influences adoption, expansion of extension services will raise the rate. Accordingly, the diffusion of modern technologies will accelerate as policy efforts are energetically made to improve the situa- tions surrounding farmers. The dynamics of diffusion should be measured by looking at time and area expan- sion. Therefore, some determinants explored by Probit analysis can be translated into 'vari- ables' that will change with policy input. In the unfavorable situations of African rural ar- eas, policy efforts are needed to accelerate the diffusion of high-yield varieties; those pol- icies must be given the highest priority on the list of development issues. 4.3.2 NERICA In 1994, the West Africa Rice Develop- ment Association (WARDA) finally succeed- ed in a hybridization project between Asian rice (Oryza sativa) and African rice (Ory- za glaberima), with financing from the Japa- nese government. The newly created varieties were named 'New Rice for Africa' (NERICA). NERICA is a ideal combination of the char- acteristics of both parents: a high and sta- ble yield (as high as 2.5 t/ha at low input and 5 t/ha with a minimum increase in fertiliz- er use), early maturity (90-100 days), drought tolerance, resistance to diseases, responsive- ness to mineral fertilization, high protein con- tent, and a taste and aroma favored by local people (WARDA [2001]). In Africa, eight countries produce rice as a major crop: Comoros, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinée, Guiné-Bissau, Madagascar, Maurita- nia, Liberia, and Sierra-Leone. Mali, Nigeria, Diffusion curve with low policy input Adoptionrate →Time Figure 11 Diffusion Curve Diffusion curve with high policy input
  • 11. 43Chapter 4 Extension Services for Equitable Growth: The Green Revolution in Sub-Saharan Africa Tchad, Sénégal, Tanzania, Ghana, and Gam- bia produce more than 10 kg of rice per per- son. However, no country is self-sufficient, and more than 30% of total rice consumption is imported, at a cost of over 1 billion dollars in 2000. NERICA began to diffuse in West Afri- ca from 1996, and is now produced in Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinée, and Togo under the supervision of national extension agencies and an international NGO involved in exten- sion, namely Sasakawa Global 2000 in Guinée. The Japanese government, which will hold the third Tokyo International Confer- ence on African Development (TICAD III) in September 2003, has a strong desire to dif- fuse NERICA for alleviating poverty in Africa, in collaboration with an international consor- tium5 . The recognition of the importance of agriculture, and especially the food produc- tion sector, has been enhanced by this work. In this context, extension services are indis- pensable. They are real arms which can bring new technical inputs to production sites in distant rural area, monitor their performance and collect information. Conclusion In order to vitalize the African economy and alleviate poverty there, subsistence farm- ers must be set as the main targets of develop- ment policy and development cooperation. Extension services are the most reliable, and almost only apparatus that can reach them. They reduce the barriers of 'imperfect infor- mation' to farmers, and can lower transaction costs if they assist in the circulation of need- ed input. Farmers will be largely rescued from high-risk states through the technologies that these services bring in. It is not impossible to overcome the un- favorable conditions in African agriculture, but will require international cooperation uti- lizing proper technologies. This requirement comes from the reality of African rural com- munities. Therefore, extension services are expected to play a major role in attaining glo- balization with equity. (Katsumi HIRANO) Notes: 1. These calculations here were based on 41 countries for which GDP time-series are available for this period (World Bank [1996-2002a][1992-2000b], IMF [1996-2002]). Those 41 countries accounted for 99% of total GDP in Africa and 95% of its total population. 2. Labor input was estimated from:    [economic active population in agriculture] x [cereal production area / arable and permanent crop area]based on the assumption that the amount of labor input by crop is roughly proportional to the land area assigned to each crop. 3. This does not necessarily mean that the number of full-time cereal producers is growing, but that many people embarked on food cereal production in addition to their own businesses. While inter-cropping, including for food crops, was historically prevalent over the continent, many fieldwork and studies have reported that food cereal production was expanding as a survival strategy in the economic plight after the 1980s. It took various forms including a shortening of the cycle of shifting cultivation, expansion to marginal lands, and "urban agriculture" (Cromwell [1992], Ikeno [1996], Shimada [1996], Yoshida [1999], et al.). 4. Botswana recorded one of the highest economic growths in the world, 8.99% as a yearly average, during 1980-2000. 46% of its GDP comes from the mineral sector, sustained by diamonds, which employs just 0.9% of total labor; 45% of the people make their livelihood through agriculture. The cereal yield in Botswana is as low as the African average and is unstable. The Gini coefficient of the country was 54.21 in 1986 (Deininger and Lyn [1996]). 5. It is called the 'NERICA Consortium'. It is composed of national agricultural research and extension organizations in participating African countries, Japan, UNDP, the World Bank, the African Development Bank, the Rockefeller Foundation, USAID, and NGOs including Sasakawa Global 2000 (WARDA [2002]). References : Adesina, Akinwumi A. and Moses M. Zinnah [1993] "Tech- nology Characteristics, Farmers' Perceptions and Adop- tion Decisions: A Tobit model application in Sierra Le- one," No.9, pp.297-311. Adesina, Akinwumi A. and Jojo Baidu-Forson [1995] "Farm- ers' Perceptions and Adoption of New Agricultural Technology: Evidence from analysis in Burkina Faso and Guinea, West Africa," No.13, pp.1-9. Adugna, Teressa [1997] "Factors Influencing the Adoption and Intensity of use of Fertilizer: The case of Lume dis- trict, central Ethiopia," (Zeitschrift Fur auslandische Land- wirtschaft), Vol.36 No.3, pp.173-187. Bank of Japan [2002]
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