Webinar with James Thurlow (IFPRI/CGIAR-PIM) presenting a new approach for measuring agri-food system GDP and employment. (Recorded on April 8, 2021) More info and full recording: https://bit.ly/mafsGDP

2. Beyond Agriculture
Measuring Agri-Food System GDP and Employment
James Thurlow, IFPRI
j.thurlow@cgiar.org
PIM Webinar | April 8, 2021

3. Agri-Food System Perspective is Essential
Rising farm productivity
Higher farm productivity increases food
production (and consumption)
for subsistence farmers
Linking to local markets
Farmers supply surplus to markets, thereby
raising their incomes & creating local jobs
Engaging rural nonfarm economy
Farmers & others start nonfarm businesses,
generating demand & creating incomes/jobs
across the rural economy
Harnessing urban markets
Urban consumers come to drive demand,
leading to more value addition of agric.
products (and more opportunities to diversify)
1
2
3
4

4. Defining Agri-Food Systems
Input suppliers
Imports
Farmers
Processors
Aggregators
Traders
Consumers
Exports
Manufacturing GDP
(ISIC 1010-1311, 1610-1629)
Agricultural GDP
(ISIC 0111-0322)
Food Services
Services GDP
(part of ISIC 4500-4799)
F
A
B
D
C
Hotels
Services GDP
(ISIC 5610-5630,
part of 5510-5590)
E
Other sectors’ GDP
(part of ISIC 510-990, 1312-
1520, 1701-4390, 5811-9900)
Agri-Food System GDP (AgGDP+)
Total value added generated by all agricultural value
chains (in constant dollars)
Agri-Food System Employment (AgEMP+)
Total number of workers (aged 15+) who are
primarily employed in an agricultural value chain

5. Six Components of AgGDP+
A. Agriculture: All crops, livestock, forestry and fishing GDP
B. Processing: All agriculture-related manufacturing GDP (incl. food
processing, beverages, tobacco, cotton yarn, timber)
C. Trade & Transport: Portion of services GDP associated with transporting
and trading (retailing, wholesaling) of agri-food products between farms,
firms and points of sale.
D. Food services: All GDP generated by meal preparation and sale outside the
home (e.g., restaurants, street vendors)
E. Hotels: Portion of the GDP within the hotels and accommodation sector that
is associated with sale of food
F. Inputs: All GDP generated during domestic production of inputs used by
farmers and processors (excludes inputs produced by the above five sectors)
Input suppliers
Farmers
Processors
Traders
Traders
Food Services
F
A
B
D
C
Hotels
E

6. Data Sources
AgGDP+ is estimated using Supply-Use Tables (SUT)
• SUTs are used to “rebase” national accounts (i.e., GDP)
• AgGDP+ is drawn directly or derived from SUTs
• IFPRI updates SUTs using current data from statistical agencies
AgEMP+ is estimated using ILO employment statistics
• ILO reconciles population & labor force data to impute annual
employment by broad sector
• AgEMP+ combines this with SUT data to estimate employment
numbers for each component of the agri-food system
Input suppliers
Farmers
Processors
Traders
Traders
Food Services
F
A
B
D
C
Hotels
E

7. Agri-Food Systems in Selected Countries
Input suppliers
Farmers
Processors
Traders
Traders
Food Services
F
A
B
D
C
Hotels
E
AgGDP+
(2017)
AgEMP+
(2017)
31% 29%
22%
14% 18%
30%
14% 10%
46%
43%
34%
30%
27%
49%
35% 37%
Ethiopia Kenya Nigeria Bangladesh India Nepal Honduras Guatemala
Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Central America
67.1%
57.8%
36.8% 40.1% 44.5%
70.4%
32.0% 29.3%
75.2%
69.2%
51.7% 55.5% 53.1%
80.5%
50.9% 51.5%
Ethiopia Kenya Nigeria Bangladesh India Nepal Honduras Guatemala
Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Central America

8. Contributions to the Nonfarm Economy
3%
5% 4%
2% 2% 3%
9%
11%
4%
7%
4%
16%
15%
3%
9% 7%
6%
12%
8%
18%
16%
6%
19% 19%
Ethiopia Kenya Nigeria Bangladesh India Nepal Honduras Guatemala
Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Central America
Input suppliers
Farmers
Processors
Traders
Traders
Food Services
F
A
B
D
C
Hotels
E
Manufacturing GDP
(2017)
Agri-food processing
Other manufacturing
10% 7% 7%
11%
6%
13% 9% 13%
29%
44% 44%
45%
47%
42% 49%
50%
40%
50% 51%
56%
53% 55% 57%
63%
Ethiopia Kenya Nigeria Bangladesh India Nepal Honduras Guatemala
Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Central America
Services GDP
(2017)
Trade & food services
Other services

9. Estimates for 98 Countries (Circa 2016)
81.6%
90.8%
92.8%
98.8%
Countries
Population
Employment
GNI
Pre Post
2015-2017
GNI = Gross national income
Original data years
East Asia & Pacific
Europe & Central Asia
Latin America & Caribbean
Middle East &
North Africa
North America
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
84% 77%
100% 98%
98% 85%
100% 100%
86% 82%
99%
98%
47%
46%
96%
70%
90%
94%
98%
90%
60%
91%
93%
96%
World
Low income
Lower middle income
Upper middle income
High income
Regional coverage
GDP Employment
Income group
coverage

10. AgGDP+ is a Better Indicator of Agric. Transformation
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
$250 $2,500 $25,000
Share
of
total
GDP
Income (GNI) per capita ($)
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
$250 $2,500 $25,000
Off-farm
share
of
AgGDP+
/
AgEMP+
Income (GNI) per capita ($)
Like agriculture, food systems are less
important in more developed economies…
…but the off-farm agri-food system
becomes more important than agriculture
AgGDP+ / Total GDP(circa 2016)
Off-farm AFS / Total AFS (circa 2016)
Source: IFPRI agri-food system GDP and employment estimates for 98 countries
$4000
$1000 $4000
$1000
AgGDP+
AgGDP
AgGDP+
AgEMP+

11. Structure of the Global Agri-Food System
4%
28%
17%
7% 1% 6%
2%
5% 5% 1%
17% 18%
9.7%
46.4%
29.1%
13.9%
5.7%
12.3%
7.0%
13.2%
11.0%
4.6%
27.0%
30.8%
World Low income Lower middle
income
Upper middle
income
High income East Asia &
Pacific
Europe & Central
Asia
Latin America &
Caribbean
Middle East &
North Africa
North America South Asia Sub-Saharan
Africa
World Income groups Regional groups
Input suppliers
Farmers
Processors
Traders
Traders
Food Services
F
A
B
D
C
Hotels
E
Sample of countries
Global agri-food system is more than
twice the size of agriculture itself
Agri-food systems in general are
more important for poorer countries
Off-farm components of the agri-
food system are more important
in more developed countries
Note:
Small sample

12. Size of the Global Agri-Food System
1.43
0.65 0.69
1.07
3.21
1.20
2.57
1.55
1.41
3.72
0.56 0.68
0.31
0.16 0.25 0.35
1.73
0.33
0.99
0.70
0.49
3.21
0.22 0.21
World Low income Lower middle
income
Upper middle
income
High income East Asia &
Pacific
Europe &
Central Asia
Latin America &
Caribbean
Middle East &
North Africa
North America South Asia Sub-Saharan
Africa
World Income groups Regional groups
$1.43 of value-added (GDP)
generated off the farm for every
$1 GDP generated on the farm
31 jobs off-farm for
every 100 on-farm jobs
9%
38%
38%
16%
2%
20%
42%
36%
Low income
Lower middle income
Upper middle income
High income
Global
population
Global
AgGDP+
LICs & LMICs have almost half the
world’s population, but only a
fifth of the global food economy
Global agri-food system generates
$7.8 trillion GDP per year &
employs 1.2 billion workers
Extrapolation to all countries

13. Uses | Understanding Drivers of Transformation
16% 12% 7% 14% 14% 6% 9% 13% 9%
BGD
ETH
GHA
GTM
HND
KEN
MLI
NER
NGA
NPL
SEN
UGA
Cereals
Pulses,
oilseeds
Roots
Horticulture
Livestock,
dairy
Fish
Export
crops
Forestry
Beverages,
other
AgGDP+ by product group (2017)
Uganda
Senegal
Nepal
Nigeria
Niger
Mali
Kenya
Honduras
Guatemala
Ghana
Ethiopia
Bangladesh
• AgGDP+ and AgEMP+ can be
unpacked across product groups
• Provides a useful framework for…
• Country agri-food system diagnostics
• Informing national development
strategies and investment plans

14. Uses | Identifying Priorities & Trade-Offs
Prioritizing Value Chains for Investment in Nigeria
Value chain with strongest outcome impact per unit of agricultural GDP growth
(1 = highest | 0 = lowest)
Poverty
Change in number
of poor people
Growth
Change in AgGDP+
Diets
Change in diet
• IFPRI’s RIAPA modeling system is
based on the same data as AgGDP+
• Often use RIAPA to simulate growth
driven by different agric. sectors
• Compare how effective value chains
are in driving inclusive transformation
• Poverty reduction
• AgGDP+
• AgEMP+
• Diet quality
• etc.
0.
0.16
0.19
0.19
0.04
0.05
0.01
0.29
0.52
0.37
0.00
0.32
0.35
0.44
0.57
Goats & sheep
Maize
Dairy
Rice
Potato
Sorghum & millet
Groundnuts
Pulses
Fruits
Yams
Vegetables
Cocoa
Oilseeds
Nuts
Plantains
Aquaculture
Cattle
Jobs
Change in AgEMP+
0.25
0.46
0.00
0.45
0.28
0.43
0.53
0.49
0.35
0.35
0.12
0.70
0.53
1.00
0.33
0.04
0.18
Goats & sheep
Maize
Dairy
Rice
Potato
Sorghum & millet
Groundnuts
Pulses
Fruits
Yams
Vegetables
Cocoa
Oilseeds
Nuts
Plantains
Aquaculture
Cattle
0.44
0.26
0.97
0.26
0.21
0.13
0.27
0.27
0.20
0.16
0.29
0.00
0.28
0.32
0.26
1.00
0.50
Goats & sheep
Maize
Dairy
Rice
Potato
Sorghum & millet
Groundnuts
Pulses
Fruits
Yams
Vegetables
Cocoa
Oilseeds
Nuts
Plantains
Aquaculture
Cattle
1.00
0.99
0.98
0.94
0.68
0.63
0.55
0.51
0.44
0.41
0.33
0.28
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.26
0.12
Goats & sheep
Maize
Dairy
Rice
Potato
Sorghum & millet
Groundnuts
Pulses
Fruits
Yams
Vegetables
Cocoa
Oilseeds
Nuts
Plantains
Aquaculture
Cattle

15. Summary
• No single data source or metric can capture all aspects of agricultural transformation
• But AgGDP+ and AgEMP+ are better than indicators that only look at agriculture
• AgGDP+ and AgEMP+ have clear strengths and uses:
• GDP and employment are readily understood and familiar to policy makers
• Limitations are well established/known
• Driven by data and international statistical systems, rather than any one person’s assumptions
• Easily incorporated into agri-food system tools, models, etc.
• Next steps:
• Country food system diagnostic toolkit based on AgGDP+ and AgEMP+
• Make data and tools publicly available

16. Q&A
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17. Annex | Using SUTs to Estimate AgGDP+
Tanzania, 2015
(billions of Shillings)
Production Sectors x 67 Final demand Total Sources of Supply
Agric. Proc. Trade… Hotels Food… Other… Dom. Exports Use Supply Dom. Imports Margin Taxes
Products
x
67
Agriculture 2,392 4,675 14 68 762 1,366 24,352 2,014 35,643 35,643 28,880 566 5,127 1,071
Processing 241 862 7 145 660 676 11,265 2,234 16,091 16,091 11,128 1,019 2,559 1,384
Trade/transport 297 101 2,899 4 5 3,411 5,262 2,467 14,447 14,447 25,774 2,162 -14,009 520
Hotels 17 2 334 0 3 439 159 0 954 954 945 0 0 9
Food services 8 3 479 0 0 335 1,814 0 2,639 2,639 2,574 0 0 65
Other sectors 2,576 1,154 7,833 62 183 28,455 57,675 9,423 107,361 107,361 77,653 18,569 6,323 4,816
Sum 5,531 6,797 11,565 279 1,614 34,682 100,527 16,138 177,135 177,135 146,954 22,316 0 7,865
GDP 25,231 2,537 15,637 163 1,256 41,464
= 86,289
Labor costs 1,739 449 3,754 50 557 11,911
Gross surplus 23,493 2,088 11,884 114 699 29,553
Production taxes 3 34 40 2 1 115
Gross output 30,766 9,368 27,243 445 2,871 76,262
= 146,954
Domestic supply 28,880 11,128 25,774 945 2,574 77,653
GDP is estimated using Supply-Use Tables (SUT)
• SUTs used to “rebase” national accounts… IFPRI updates them annually
• AgGDP+ is drawn directly (ABD) or derived (CEF) from SUTs
A B
C
F
D
Total GDP 86,289 100.0%
AgGDP+ 34,801 40.3%
Farmers 25,231 29.2%
Processors 2,537 2.9%
Trade/transport 4,777 5.5%
Food services 1,256 1.5%
Hotels 124 0.1%
Inputs 875 1.0%
A
B
D
F
E
E
C
Source: https://www.nbs.go.tz/nbs/takwimu/na/Supply_and_Use_Table2015.xls
Input suppliers
Farmers
Processors
Traders
Traders
Food Services
F
A
B
D
C
Hotels
E

18. Annex | Employment Data & Estimation
Employment Data
ILO Estimates
Tanzania Labor Survey
2014
ILO Etimates
2015
AgEMP+
2015
Employed (mil.) 21,160 24,104 24,104
Shares 100% 100% 100%
Agriculture 68.1% 67.8% 67.8%
Manufacturing 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Agro-processing 0.8% - 1.0%
Rest 2.2% - 1.9%
Trade & transport 14.9% 14.8% 14.8%
Food-related trade - - 5.3%
Rest - - 9.6%
Hotels & food services 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%
Food services - - 0.3%
Food-related hotels 3.5% - 3.4%
Rest 0.3% - 0.1%
Other services 10.3% 10.6% 10.6%
Input suppliers - - 0.3%
Rest - - 10.3%
A
B
D
F
E
C
Input suppliers
Farmers
Processors
Traders
Traders
Food Services
F
A
B
D
C
Hotels
E
Employment is estimated in three steps:
• Combine labor force/household surveys & ILO modeled estimates
• Estimate GDP per worker for detailed SUT sectors
• Estimate AgEMP+ bottom-up from sectoral AgGDP+