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Global climate change and agricultue


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Global climate change and agricultue

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Global climate change and agricultue

  1. 1. Shafqat FarooqPIEAS, Islamabad
  2. 2. Agriculture deals with:1. Crops,2. Livestock,3. Agro-forestry, and4. Aquaculture
  3. 3. and is critical for:•Poverty reduction•Economic development and•Food security
  4. 4. Constraints of crop sector1.Climate change2. Immense water shortage3. Salinization of originally productive soils4. Depletion of SOM and unbalanced plant nutrition5. Yield gap/stagnation/decline6. Profitability: increasing cost and deceleration in TFP(Total Factor Productivity) growth,7. Lack of diversity (varieties, cropping system)A holistic approach mitigating all these problems isrequired
  5. 5. The Challenge By 2050, the global population will reach 8.9 billion and percapita food consumption will rise above 3100 Kcal per day, Require 70% increase in agriculture productivity from 1600-1680 Mha of cultivable land not sufficient to produce therequirement of 40% increased population,hence 90% of the required increase will come fromintensifying farming practices and higher yield From 1960 till to date, crop yields have increased globally by77% just by exploiting the genetic potential which has largelybeen exhausted and required re-evaluationMany varieties currently are producing only 30-35% of what isagro-ecologically attainable under comparable environmentsclimate change has further aggravated the situation
  6. 6. What are the options?i. Get help from Geneticengineering/smart breeding/environment friendly genesorii. Revisit strategies
  7. 7. Option-1:GE/smart breeding/environment friendly genesRecommendation from Lok Sanjh Foundation and the PakistanDehqan Assembly (> 600 small, landless farmers and tenants participated)a)Withdraw the Agreement of Intent with Monsanto to introduceBt cotton,b)Protect Basmati areas from GE and hybrid rice productionc)Right to Food should be given priority instead of breeder’s right,d)WTO should be kept out of food and agriculture-related issues,e)The Government should immediately withdraw the CorporateAgricultural Farming Policy and land should be distributed tolandless and small farmersf)The agriculture research system must be revamped to focusstrictly on local seed varietiesWill option-1 work?
  8. 8. Option-2: Revisit strategiesFor this we have to think:i. What is required for crops?ii. What we have?iii.What we need? andiv. What we can have?
  9. 9. What is required in crop sector?Resources comprising land, water and manpowerto make agriculture:Productive: so that share in GDP can be increasedfrom 19.6 % to 27% by 2015Profitable: so that it can generate more income withless expenditure and should produceexportable commoditiesCompetitive: So that it can reduce poverty throughproviding livelihood and creation of jobsin the rural areas andSustainable: so that it should be able to absorb shocksand remain productive forever.
  10. 10. What we have (Production,000Tons)Year Wheat Rice Cotton Sugar cane2004-05 21,612 5,025 14,265 47,2442005-06 21,227 5,547 13,019 44,6662006-07 23,295 5,438 12,856 54,7422007-08 20,959 5,563 11,655 63,9202008-09 20,033 6,952 11,819 50,0452009-10 23,311 6,883 12,913 49,3732010-11 24,214 4,823 11,460 55,309¶RequiredProduction¥ Yield~ 26,0002750 (2800)*~7,50002039 (2500)*~ 21.7725 (1400)***~70,00055981(56000)*** Yield increase, ** Area increase, *** Area and yield increase¶ Author calculations based on vision 2015; Source data: Economic survey ofPakistan 2011, Targets seems largely achievable despite climate change
  11. 11. What we can have?Available PotentialLand 23.13 Mha 6.30 Mha saline0.80 Mha under GTC0.41 Mha under KC0.17 Mha under RCWater 90.00 MAF 8500 Cusecs in GTC2010-2011 6000 Cusecs in KC5155 Cusecs in RC19655 Cusecs in total(app. 14.23 MAF)Manpower: 45% (2010-2011) All those related withnewly irrigated areasWhat about climate change?
  12. 12. Climate change will have negative impactsWill lower yields (the varieties in hand will not work)Will increase prices (we are witnessing this)More malnourished children (already 40%)Require large additional expenditure to:i. Build infrastructureii.Purchase the climate ready genes(55 such families are available or )iii. Pay royalties for growing the patented varietiesrequired to combat adverse impact of climate changeDe we have enough resources?
  13. 13. NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research, USACSIRO: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial OrganizationIf varieties in hands are used
  14. 14. Region 2000 No climatechangeWith climatechangeNCARWith climatechangeCSIROSouth Asia 2424 2660 (+09.79) 2226 (-08.20) 2255 (-06.97)East Asia and Pacific 2879 3277 (+13.82) *2789 (-03.13) *2814 (-02.26)Europe and Central Asia 3017 3382 (+12.10) 2852 (-05-50) 2885 (-05.47)Latin America and Caribbean 2879 2985 (+03.68) 2615 (-09.17) 2628 (-08.72)Middle East and North America 2846 3119 (+09.60) 2561 (-10-00) 2596 (-08.82)Sub-Saharan Africa 2316 2452 (+05.87) 1924 (-16.92) 1931 (-16.62)Developed countries 3450 3645 (+05.70) 3190 (-07.50) 3215 (-06.81)Developing countries 2696 2886 (+ 07.00) 2410 (-10.60) 2432 (-09.79)Daily per capita calorie availabilitywith and without climate change by the year 2050*70% increase is require to meet the demand of increased population , additional increasewould be required to meet this deficiencyNCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research, USACSIRO: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Australia
  15. 15. Source data: FAOThe situation will not remain the same with varieties in hands
  16. 16. Production will reduced in Pakistan by <25%What about Afghanistan?Will smuggling increase?
  17. 17. Positive aspect: 100 mm more rain. New avenue forcultivation, can increase export to IRAN and AfghanistanDo we need strategic planning?Commonwalth Scientific and Industrial Research organization
  18. 18. 100-200 mm more rain in Pakistan and insome parts of Iran and Afghanistan will bring newland under cultivation especially in BaluchistanNational Center for Atmospheric research, USAHope:
  19. 19. As a consequence of rain,Increased production will meet the target sets in the vision 2020
  20. 20. How to make the gains sustainable1. Plan strategically (action Pakistan)2. Develop climate friendly (action global level)3. Food production for human consumption be givenpriority over consumption demand(Action industrial countries)60% for human, 40% for animal feed which is equivalent to annual caloriesneed of 3.5 billion (> half) of the total 6.6 billion population)3.Follow the food web and not the food chain(Action developed countries)Is this not what was suggested by the poor and illiterate farmers in remoteSheikhupura district ?4. Keep, preserve and save genetic diversity (animal,plants and fishes) because climate crisis need this morethan hunger crisis,(Action researcher/research organization)
  21. 21. The uncertainties ofclimate change demanda complete rethink ofresearchespecially the breedingpriorities.Plant breeders needs tonurture species andgenetic diversity in thefieldHopefullyIt will be the peasantfarming system that willuse genetic diversity andhelp crop withstandclimate changebecauseThey didit in thepastWhycan’t theydo it now?Courtesy ETC
  22. 22. Courtesy ETC: Action Group on Erosion, Technology and ConcentrationBased in CANADA