African Agricultural Futures: Opportunities, Challenges & Priorities - Dr Siwa Msangi, Research Fellow, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and AIFSC Project Coordinator for "Strategic Foresight for African Agriculture"
This document summarizes projections for Africa's agricultural economy in 2030 and 2050. It finds that under a scenario of continued strong GDP growth, Africa will see major improvements in food security, though climate change may reduce crop yields. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) is used to project increases in African agricultural production, demand, trade, and prices of commodities like cereals, meat, and roots/tubers. With policies supporting agriculture, rural development, and adaptation, Africa could largely overcome hunger risks by 2050 despite climate impacts.
as part of the IFPRI-Egypt Seminar Series- funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) project called “Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity” (EIBC) that is implemented by IFPRI.
as part of the IFPRI-Egypt Seminar Series- funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) project called “Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity” (EIBC) that is implemented by IFPRI.
The document summarizes Egypt's food and beverage sector. It outlines that the sector accounts for 4.7% of Egypt's GDP and has grown at a compound annual rate of 15% from 2011 to 2016. The sector is expected to continue strong growth in exports and value added products. Regulations and standards are overseen by agencies such as the National Food Safety Agency and Industrial Development Authority, while the Chamber of Food Industries and Food Export Council represent industry interests. The document also examines economic trends in Egypt and the country's vision to become one of the top 20 economies by 2030 through continued reforms and development.
3. Paul Dorosh (IFPRI). What are the distributional consequences of wheat pol...YumnaKassim
Part III of the presentation of IFPRI's Sudan Strategy Support Program's study on wheat value chains in Sudan: "Wheat and it's role for food security in Sudan".
Comparative analysis of commercial wheat and intensive subsistence agricultur...Arghyadeep Saha
The document compares commercial wheat farming and intensive subsistence rice agriculture. Commercial wheat farming is practiced on large farms with machinery and chemicals to maximize productivity for international markets. In contrast, intensive subsistence rice agriculture occurs on small plots using family labor to meet local consumption needs. While wheat is grown as a cash crop, rice serves as a staple food for densely populated regions in Southeast Asia and East India. The document analyzes global production trends and distribution of these two important crops.
This document summarizes projections for Africa's agricultural economy in 2030 and 2050. It finds that under a scenario of continued strong GDP growth, Africa will see major improvements in food security, though climate change may reduce crop yields. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) is used to project increases in African agricultural production, demand, trade, and prices of commodities like cereals, meat, and roots/tubers. With policies supporting agriculture, rural development, and adaptation, Africa could largely overcome hunger risks by 2050 despite climate impacts.
as part of the IFPRI-Egypt Seminar Series- funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) project called “Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity” (EIBC) that is implemented by IFPRI.
as part of the IFPRI-Egypt Seminar Series- funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) project called “Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity” (EIBC) that is implemented by IFPRI.
The document summarizes Egypt's food and beverage sector. It outlines that the sector accounts for 4.7% of Egypt's GDP and has grown at a compound annual rate of 15% from 2011 to 2016. The sector is expected to continue strong growth in exports and value added products. Regulations and standards are overseen by agencies such as the National Food Safety Agency and Industrial Development Authority, while the Chamber of Food Industries and Food Export Council represent industry interests. The document also examines economic trends in Egypt and the country's vision to become one of the top 20 economies by 2030 through continued reforms and development.
3. Paul Dorosh (IFPRI). What are the distributional consequences of wheat pol...YumnaKassim
Part III of the presentation of IFPRI's Sudan Strategy Support Program's study on wheat value chains in Sudan: "Wheat and it's role for food security in Sudan".
Comparative analysis of commercial wheat and intensive subsistence agricultur...Arghyadeep Saha
The document compares commercial wheat farming and intensive subsistence rice agriculture. Commercial wheat farming is practiced on large farms with machinery and chemicals to maximize productivity for international markets. In contrast, intensive subsistence rice agriculture occurs on small plots using family labor to meet local consumption needs. While wheat is grown as a cash crop, rice serves as a staple food for densely populated regions in Southeast Asia and East India. The document analyzes global production trends and distribution of these two important crops.
In order to maximise the benefits of regional integration and look for new opportunities for competitiveness, policymakers, the private sector and development partners need access to accurate and comprehensive data on intra and inter-regional trade in Africa with respect to agricultural goods. It is in this context that CTA and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) are launching the “African Agricultural Trade Status Report”, which examines the current status, trends and outlook in African trade performance, making an important contribution towards data and analysis of developments both at regional and at continental levels. The Report, which is released in conjunction with the Briefing, builds on the work by the Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS) of CAADP and the African Growth and Development Policy Modeling Consortium (AGRODEP) trade and also reflects the CTA’s commitment to advancing knowledge and sharing of best practices relating to agricultural trade.
The Brussels Development Briefing n.47 on the subject of “Regional Trade in Africa: Drivers, Trends and Opportunities” took place on 3rd February 2017 in Brussels at the ACP Secretariat (Avenue Georges Henri 451, 1200 Brussels) from 09:00 to 13:00. This Briefing was organised by the ACP-EU Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation (CTA), in collaboration with IFPRI, the European Commission / DEVCO, the ACP Secretariat, and CONCORD .
4. Khalid Siddig (IFPRI). Political economy of wheat value chains: Opportunit...YumnaKassim
The document discusses the political economy of wheat value chains in Sudan following the 2019 political transition. It analyzes the policy preferences of key stakeholders to improve wheat affordability and domestic production. While cash transfers are the least controversial option, macroeconomic instability risks undermining their effectiveness. Reforms to agricultural credit and irrigation systems could boost production but may face opposition. Bread subsidies remain important politically but are costly economically. Overall, balancing competing interests across the complex wheat system poses ongoing challenges for policymakers.
This document discusses strategies for renewing industrialization in Africa. It outlines past industrial strategies from the post-independence era of import substitution to current mixed strategies. Africa's industrial performance has been disappointing, with manufacturing accounting for just 10% of GDP on average. A new strategy is needed that focuses on infrastructure investment, research and technology, improving business climate, private sector development, regional integration, and long-term financing partnerships.
The vertical farming market is expected to grow securely between 2020 and 2025. The analysis report on vertical farming provides insights into business strategies used by major players and how these strategies could impact future market conditions. It describes the global vertical farming industry, including production volumes, value, demand, and key regions. Major types of vertical farming include hydroponics and aeroponics, while major applications are vegetable cultivation and fruit planting.
the role of agriculture in economic developmentmajesticmaths
This document discusses the role of agriculture in economic development. It notes that while agriculture's share of GDP is declining, agricultural productivity has been increasing in some regions through higher yields. However, agricultural growth did not lead to as much economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa as hoped. The document examines factors driving changes in agriculture, the relationship between agricultural growth and poverty reduction, linkages between agriculture and other sectors, and inclusion/exclusion of small farms. It questions why, despite investments, agricultural development has not resulted in more success in reducing poverty.
1. Agriculture has historically played a major role in the Indian economy, contributing over 50% of national income in 1950-1951 and employing over 70% of the population in the early 20th century. However, its economic contribution and employment share have declined with industrialization.
2. Agricultural productivity in India has been low compared to other countries due to small landholding sizes, lack of infrastructure and credit, and traditional farming methods. The Green Revolution in the 1960s boosted wheat and rice yields through high-yielding varieties and irrigation but gains were not sustained equally across crops.
3. Marketing of agricultural goods in India faces issues such as inadequate transport and storage infrastructure, lack of credit and price information for farmers, and explo
2. Khaled Siddig (IFPRI). How well are wheat markets integrated? Findings fro...YumnaKassim
Part II of the presentation of IFPRI's Sudan Strategy Support Program's study on wheat value chains in Sudan: "Wheat and it's role for food security in Sudan".
Economic Recovery in Africa and its Determinants
John Ulimwengu, Senior Research Fellow, West and Central Africa Office, IFPRI, DRC
2015 ReSAKSS Annual Conference, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Sept. 1-3
1. Oliver Kirui (IFPRI). What are the constraints and opportunities of key wh...YumnaKassim
Part I of the presentation of IFPRI's Sudan Strategy Support Program's study on wheat value chains in Sudan: "Wheat and it's role for food security in Sudan".
By Hans P. Binswanger-Mkhize, Derek Byerlee, Alex McCalla, Michael Morris and John Staatz. Presented at the ASTI-FARA conference Agricultural R&D: Investing in Africa's Future: Analyzing Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities - Accra, Ghana, December 5-7, 2011. http://www.asti.cgiar.org/2011conf
The document provides an executive summary of a survey conducted by NABARD to assess the impact of COVID-19 on Indian agriculture and the rural economy. Some key findings of the survey include:
1) Agriculture production was adversely affected in around 47% of districts surveyed, with production declining most significantly in poultry (-19.5%), fisheries (-13.6%), and sheep/goat/pig (-8.5%) sectors.
2) Around 54% of districts saw declines in farmgate prices, highest for poultry (-17.8%), horticulture (-7.6%), dairy (-5.6%), fisheries (-4.8%), and sheep/goat/pig (-
Implication of financial viability and value chain analysis of agro processin...Alexander Decker
This document discusses a study on the financial viability and value chain analysis of agro-processing industries run by women in Oyo State, Nigeria. It finds that the maximum value added was 103% in fruit and vegetable processing, with cassava mills adding around 34%. Most processing industries had high current ratios but lower quick ratios, indicating unsold inventory. Overall, the financial ratios were favorable for most processors. However, there was undercapacity utilization across industries due to lack of raw materials and issues with marketing. The break-even output was low, causing many industries to operate at a loss with low capacity utilization.
Binayak Sen, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Minhaj Mahmud, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS)
Presented at the ReSAKSS-Asia conference “Agriculture and Rural Transformation in Asia: Past Experiences and Future Opportunities”. An international conference jointly organized by ReSAKSS-Asia, IFPRI, TDRI, and TVSEP project of Leibniz Universit Hannover with support from USAID and Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) at the Dusit Thani Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand December 12–14, 2017.
This document discusses balancing trade disciplines and policy space in agricultural trade. It notes that while unilateral trade policies can benefit individual countries, they create problems collectively. Developing countries have grown substantially in importance in agricultural trade but also increased protectionism and price insulation policies. The document evaluates options for improving information, using social safety nets, and placing disciplines on protectionism and price insulation to balance trade and domestic policy goals. It concludes that agricultural trade reform requires agreements that limit policy space to achieve broader benefits, and there is still work to be done in this area following the Nairobi agreement.
China's agricultural and rural development: implications for AfricaShenggen Fan
This document discusses China's agricultural development and implications for Africa. It finds that China achieved high growth through major reforms like improving smallholder incentives, liberalizing markets, and targeted poverty programs. Africa pursued donor-led reforms inconsistently. Lessons from China include accelerating agricultural growth, rural investment, evidence-based policies, and social protection. China-Africa cooperation can achieve win-wins by ensuring fair competition, stronger domestic linkages, local workforce engagement, environmental standards, and donor coordination for aid.
Economic Transformation in Africa: Patterns, Drivers, and Implications for Future Growth Strategies
Ousmane Badiane, Director for Africa, IFPRI, USA
2015 ReSKASS Annual Conference, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Sept. 1-3
Alison Bentley and Jason Donovan
POLICY SEMINAR
Global commodity prices and food security: Navigating new challenges and learning from the past
MAR 9, 2022 - 9:30 TO 11:30AM EST
This document summarizes the key constraints facing Indian agriculture and proposes solutions to boost agricultural productivity. It identifies market deficit, investment deficit, and research/extension deficit as the major constraints. To address these, it recommends increasing private sector participation in marketing and extension, boosting public and private investment in irrigation, warehouses, and rural infrastructure, encouraging diversification beyond staple crops, and improving access to credit for farmers. Overall the proposals aim to provide farmers stable markets, prices, and access to technology to increase incomes and make agriculture more profitable and resilient.
Future African Competitiveness: Foresight for better agricultural futuresIFPRI-EPTD
This document discusses key drivers that will determine the future competitiveness of African agriculture on global markets. Population growth, urbanization, increasing livestock production and external/internal demand will shape African agriculture. Important supply-side drivers include gains in crop productivity, input prices, farming technology, and climate change impacts. There is uncertainty around how urbanization, agribusiness development, and climate change will affect African agriculture. Building foresight analysis capabilities can help African countries and institutions better plan for the future of the agriculture sector.
Channing Arndt
COUNTRY WORKSHOP
The Knowledge Lab on Climate Resilient Food Systems: An analytical support facility to achieve the SDGs
Co-Organized by IFPRI and AGRA
FEB 7, 2019 - 08:30 AM TO 05:55 PM EAT
In order to maximise the benefits of regional integration and look for new opportunities for competitiveness, policymakers, the private sector and development partners need access to accurate and comprehensive data on intra and inter-regional trade in Africa with respect to agricultural goods. It is in this context that CTA and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) are launching the “African Agricultural Trade Status Report”, which examines the current status, trends and outlook in African trade performance, making an important contribution towards data and analysis of developments both at regional and at continental levels. The Report, which is released in conjunction with the Briefing, builds on the work by the Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS) of CAADP and the African Growth and Development Policy Modeling Consortium (AGRODEP) trade and also reflects the CTA’s commitment to advancing knowledge and sharing of best practices relating to agricultural trade.
The Brussels Development Briefing n.47 on the subject of “Regional Trade in Africa: Drivers, Trends and Opportunities” took place on 3rd February 2017 in Brussels at the ACP Secretariat (Avenue Georges Henri 451, 1200 Brussels) from 09:00 to 13:00. This Briefing was organised by the ACP-EU Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation (CTA), in collaboration with IFPRI, the European Commission / DEVCO, the ACP Secretariat, and CONCORD .
4. Khalid Siddig (IFPRI). Political economy of wheat value chains: Opportunit...YumnaKassim
The document discusses the political economy of wheat value chains in Sudan following the 2019 political transition. It analyzes the policy preferences of key stakeholders to improve wheat affordability and domestic production. While cash transfers are the least controversial option, macroeconomic instability risks undermining their effectiveness. Reforms to agricultural credit and irrigation systems could boost production but may face opposition. Bread subsidies remain important politically but are costly economically. Overall, balancing competing interests across the complex wheat system poses ongoing challenges for policymakers.
This document discusses strategies for renewing industrialization in Africa. It outlines past industrial strategies from the post-independence era of import substitution to current mixed strategies. Africa's industrial performance has been disappointing, with manufacturing accounting for just 10% of GDP on average. A new strategy is needed that focuses on infrastructure investment, research and technology, improving business climate, private sector development, regional integration, and long-term financing partnerships.
The vertical farming market is expected to grow securely between 2020 and 2025. The analysis report on vertical farming provides insights into business strategies used by major players and how these strategies could impact future market conditions. It describes the global vertical farming industry, including production volumes, value, demand, and key regions. Major types of vertical farming include hydroponics and aeroponics, while major applications are vegetable cultivation and fruit planting.
the role of agriculture in economic developmentmajesticmaths
This document discusses the role of agriculture in economic development. It notes that while agriculture's share of GDP is declining, agricultural productivity has been increasing in some regions through higher yields. However, agricultural growth did not lead to as much economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa as hoped. The document examines factors driving changes in agriculture, the relationship between agricultural growth and poverty reduction, linkages between agriculture and other sectors, and inclusion/exclusion of small farms. It questions why, despite investments, agricultural development has not resulted in more success in reducing poverty.
1. Agriculture has historically played a major role in the Indian economy, contributing over 50% of national income in 1950-1951 and employing over 70% of the population in the early 20th century. However, its economic contribution and employment share have declined with industrialization.
2. Agricultural productivity in India has been low compared to other countries due to small landholding sizes, lack of infrastructure and credit, and traditional farming methods. The Green Revolution in the 1960s boosted wheat and rice yields through high-yielding varieties and irrigation but gains were not sustained equally across crops.
3. Marketing of agricultural goods in India faces issues such as inadequate transport and storage infrastructure, lack of credit and price information for farmers, and explo
2. Khaled Siddig (IFPRI). How well are wheat markets integrated? Findings fro...YumnaKassim
Part II of the presentation of IFPRI's Sudan Strategy Support Program's study on wheat value chains in Sudan: "Wheat and it's role for food security in Sudan".
Economic Recovery in Africa and its Determinants
John Ulimwengu, Senior Research Fellow, West and Central Africa Office, IFPRI, DRC
2015 ReSAKSS Annual Conference, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Sept. 1-3
1. Oliver Kirui (IFPRI). What are the constraints and opportunities of key wh...YumnaKassim
Part I of the presentation of IFPRI's Sudan Strategy Support Program's study on wheat value chains in Sudan: "Wheat and it's role for food security in Sudan".
By Hans P. Binswanger-Mkhize, Derek Byerlee, Alex McCalla, Michael Morris and John Staatz. Presented at the ASTI-FARA conference Agricultural R&D: Investing in Africa's Future: Analyzing Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities - Accra, Ghana, December 5-7, 2011. http://www.asti.cgiar.org/2011conf
The document provides an executive summary of a survey conducted by NABARD to assess the impact of COVID-19 on Indian agriculture and the rural economy. Some key findings of the survey include:
1) Agriculture production was adversely affected in around 47% of districts surveyed, with production declining most significantly in poultry (-19.5%), fisheries (-13.6%), and sheep/goat/pig (-8.5%) sectors.
2) Around 54% of districts saw declines in farmgate prices, highest for poultry (-17.8%), horticulture (-7.6%), dairy (-5.6%), fisheries (-4.8%), and sheep/goat/pig (-
Implication of financial viability and value chain analysis of agro processin...Alexander Decker
This document discusses a study on the financial viability and value chain analysis of agro-processing industries run by women in Oyo State, Nigeria. It finds that the maximum value added was 103% in fruit and vegetable processing, with cassava mills adding around 34%. Most processing industries had high current ratios but lower quick ratios, indicating unsold inventory. Overall, the financial ratios were favorable for most processors. However, there was undercapacity utilization across industries due to lack of raw materials and issues with marketing. The break-even output was low, causing many industries to operate at a loss with low capacity utilization.
Binayak Sen, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Minhaj Mahmud, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS)
Presented at the ReSAKSS-Asia conference “Agriculture and Rural Transformation in Asia: Past Experiences and Future Opportunities”. An international conference jointly organized by ReSAKSS-Asia, IFPRI, TDRI, and TVSEP project of Leibniz Universit Hannover with support from USAID and Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) at the Dusit Thani Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand December 12–14, 2017.
This document discusses balancing trade disciplines and policy space in agricultural trade. It notes that while unilateral trade policies can benefit individual countries, they create problems collectively. Developing countries have grown substantially in importance in agricultural trade but also increased protectionism and price insulation policies. The document evaluates options for improving information, using social safety nets, and placing disciplines on protectionism and price insulation to balance trade and domestic policy goals. It concludes that agricultural trade reform requires agreements that limit policy space to achieve broader benefits, and there is still work to be done in this area following the Nairobi agreement.
China's agricultural and rural development: implications for AfricaShenggen Fan
This document discusses China's agricultural development and implications for Africa. It finds that China achieved high growth through major reforms like improving smallholder incentives, liberalizing markets, and targeted poverty programs. Africa pursued donor-led reforms inconsistently. Lessons from China include accelerating agricultural growth, rural investment, evidence-based policies, and social protection. China-Africa cooperation can achieve win-wins by ensuring fair competition, stronger domestic linkages, local workforce engagement, environmental standards, and donor coordination for aid.
Economic Transformation in Africa: Patterns, Drivers, and Implications for Future Growth Strategies
Ousmane Badiane, Director for Africa, IFPRI, USA
2015 ReSKASS Annual Conference, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Sept. 1-3
Alison Bentley and Jason Donovan
POLICY SEMINAR
Global commodity prices and food security: Navigating new challenges and learning from the past
MAR 9, 2022 - 9:30 TO 11:30AM EST
This document summarizes the key constraints facing Indian agriculture and proposes solutions to boost agricultural productivity. It identifies market deficit, investment deficit, and research/extension deficit as the major constraints. To address these, it recommends increasing private sector participation in marketing and extension, boosting public and private investment in irrigation, warehouses, and rural infrastructure, encouraging diversification beyond staple crops, and improving access to credit for farmers. Overall the proposals aim to provide farmers stable markets, prices, and access to technology to increase incomes and make agriculture more profitable and resilient.
Future African Competitiveness: Foresight for better agricultural futuresIFPRI-EPTD
This document discusses key drivers that will determine the future competitiveness of African agriculture on global markets. Population growth, urbanization, increasing livestock production and external/internal demand will shape African agriculture. Important supply-side drivers include gains in crop productivity, input prices, farming technology, and climate change impacts. There is uncertainty around how urbanization, agribusiness development, and climate change will affect African agriculture. Building foresight analysis capabilities can help African countries and institutions better plan for the future of the agriculture sector.
Channing Arndt
COUNTRY WORKSHOP
The Knowledge Lab on Climate Resilient Food Systems: An analytical support facility to achieve the SDGs
Co-Organized by IFPRI and AGRA
FEB 7, 2019 - 08:30 AM TO 05:55 PM EAT
Challenges and Scenarios for Ending Hunger in Africa by 2030Hillary Hanson
Scientific and Technical Partnerships in Africa: Technologies, Platforms and Partnerships in support of the African Agricultural Science Agenda, Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire, April 4&5, 2017
The Role of Agricultural Policy Reform and Investment in meeting Future Food...ICARDA
Mark W. Rosegrant
COP Session November 16, 2016
Session Title: Coping with Climate Change in MENA Region: Meeting future food demand through science and innovation
Time & Location: 15:00 – 16:30, Room 1, Green Zone
Partners: ICARDA (Leading Role) & INRA Morocco
1) The document discusses challenges facing food security and the environment in the Middle East and North Africa region, including population growth, rising incomes, variable oil prices, water scarcity issues, and climate change impacts.
2) It presents scenarios for agricultural and food security outcomes in 2050 using IFPRI's IMPACT model, including a scenario with climate change impacts and a scenario with additional comprehensive agricultural investments.
3) The results show that a scenario with climate change could negatively impact crop yields and food availability, but a scenario with increased investments in areas like research, irrigation, and infrastructure could help offset these impacts.
This report summarizes the corporate strategic foresight exercise conducted by FAO on the future of food and agriculture. It identifies key drivers that will shape agrifood systems, analyzes their interactions, and detects weak signals of potential challenges. Four scenarios are presented for 2030 and beyond: continuing on the current path leads to degradation, while achieving sustainability requires trading short-term gains for long-term resilience. The report highlights policy options focused on governance, consumer awareness, wealth distribution, and innovation to trigger transformations toward sustainability. While challenges are significant, the report maintains an optimistic view that collapse can be avoided through coordinated global action.
1) Continental initiatives and regional institutions are becoming increasingly important for coordinating agricultural research and development in Africa due to trends like deepening regional integration.
2) Many ongoing continental initiatives were discussed, including CAADP, inter-regional partnerships, commodity focused programs, and projects led by organizations like FARA and AGRA.
3) While these initiatives have increased investment, most funding remains external, and better coordination is needed to improve adoption and avoid duplication. Looking ahead, Africa needs to determine its preferred agricultural future and pursue it proactively in the face of challenges and opportunities from various mega-trends.
The Brussels Development Briefing n. 59 on “Agroecology for Sustainable Food Systems” organised by CTA, the European Commission/EuropeAid, the ACP Secretariat, CONCORD and IPES-FOOD was held on Wednesday 15 January 2020 (9h00-13h00) at the ACP Secretariat, Avenue Georges Henri 451, 1200 Brussels.
The briefing brought various perspectives and experiences on agroecological systems to support agricultural transformation. Experts presented trends and prospects for agroecological approaches and what it implies for the future of the food systems. Successes and innovative models in agroecology in different parts of the world and the lessons learned for upscaling them were also discussed.
Africa has enormous potential for regional trade in food staples but this potential remains largely unexploited due to regulatory barriers. Barriers along the food value chain reduce returns for farmers and increase consumer prices. Specifically, trade barriers limit farmers' access to key inputs, high transport costs limit access to regional markets, and opaque trade policies undermine regional food trade. Overcoming these barriers through more open and predictable trade policies and supporting efficient market institutions could unlock Africa's potential to meet its rising food demand and improve food security.
Respondents viewed the primary causes of price volatility in the food and agribusiness industry as increasing consumption in emerging markets, climate change, natural disasters, and the price of or access to agricultural inputs. Economic growth and higher incomes in emerging markets like China are having a major effect on demand as more people seek meat-based diets. Supply is affected by extreme weather and natural disasters. Urbanization also increases demand for high-value foods and creates supply challenges. Climate change and weather events were seen as a concern and cause of volatility. Emerging middle classes and urbanization in Asia, particularly China, were viewed as market-changing phenomena for the industry.
- Africa has experienced rapid economic growth in recent decades but still faces significant challenges to transforming its economies and ensuring food security. While some countries have grown at over 5% annually, others have been stuck at lower growth rates.
- Key drivers of growth have included increased investment and emerging opportunities from globalization, but Africa has yet to gain its fair share of global trade due to internal constraints and trade issues. Ensuring food security also remains a challenge as many regions remain food insecure and Africa imports $30 billion in food annually.
- For Africa to enhance food security and move up global value chains, policies must address issues like weak infrastructure, disjointed regional economies, lack of economic diversification, and underdeveloped agriculture.
This document discusses economic transformation and agricultural transition experiences in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region based on joint research. It finds that while the share of agriculture in GDP and employment has declined in MENA countries as expected, the shift to manufacturing has been low, particularly in mineral-rich countries. Productivity in agriculture and industry has also increased slowly. This suggests difficulties moving resources from agriculture to more productive sectors. The document then examines agriculture in more depth, noting that water and land constraints limit production across MENA, and the region relies heavily on cereal imports. Agricultural growth has been driven by land productivity increases in a few countries and crops. It questions if MENA needs a new agricultural strategy and industrial policy approach going
By Yusuf Abubakar.
Presented at the ASTI-FARA conference Agricultural R&D: Investing in Africa's Future: Analyzing Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities - Accra, Ghana on December 5-7, 2011. http://www.asti.cgiar.org/2011conf
The forum aimed to accelerate private sector-led agricultural development in Southern Africa, focusing on small-scale agriculture. It brought together a broad range of stakeholders, including farmers, financiers, governments, and multilateral organizations. Major themes included maximizing efficiencies for farmers, improving partnerships and the enabling environment, increasing access to finance and investment, and promoting inclusive private sector strategies. The forum featured presentations, panel discussions, and small group work, culminating in a "Marketplace of Ideas" session to develop tangible partnerships and investment opportunities. The opening remarks emphasized the importance of agriculture for development and strategies like competitive smallholders, engaging multiple sectors, regional cooperation, and reinvesting gains.
The document discusses Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA), an organization that coordinates agricultural research and development in Africa. It summarizes FARA's mission to improve agriculture productivity, competitiveness, and markets by strengthening African agricultural research and development systems. FARA supports the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) which aims for 6% annual growth in African agriculture. The document also provides messages for the African Innovation Foundation for Sustainable Crop Intensification, including aligning with CAADP and focusing on adoption, capacity building, and policy.
Feeding and Fueling the World to 2030 and Beyond: Land Use Change from a Food...Siwa Msangi
This document summarizes key points about meeting future global food needs from a food security perspective. It discusses increasing food demand driven by population and income growth, and the tradeoffs between intensifying agriculture through higher yields versus expanding crop area. Maintaining agricultural productivity growth will be important to meet needs while limiting land use change. Country case studies show linkages between biofuels production, economic growth, and poverty. Policy needs to consider food security impacts at global, national and local levels.
The CAADP, ECOWAP, APP, NAIP and Poverty and Hunger reduction in NigeriaFrancois Stepman
The document discusses agriculture policies and programs in Nigeria and West Africa, including the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) and ECOWAS Agriculture Policy (ECOWAP). It provides context on these frameworks and their goals of promoting agricultural growth, food security, poverty reduction, and regional economic integration. The document also examines Nigeria's National Agriculture Investment Plan (NAIP) and implementation of CAADP/ECOWAP at various levels from global to national to local. Key commitments and targets outlined in the Malabo Declaration to achieve agricultural transformation by 2025 are also summarized.
Climate resilience and job prospects for young people in agricultureIFPRI-PIM
Climate change matters for all people. Does it matter particularly for young people? If so, where and how?
PIM Webinar, February 7, 2019.
Presenters: Karen Brooks, Adjunct Professor, Georgetown University and Keith Wiebe, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI.
For more information, slides, and podcast visit http://bit.ly/CRJYwebr
This document discusses developing a fertilizer and soil health action plan for Africa. It summarizes that while fertilizer use has increased in Africa, high costs continue to constrain productivity growth. Current issues include soil degradation, reliance on imports, and constrained financing. It outlines megatrends, challenges and opportunities in African agriculture. Key points are that Africa has a choice to increase domestic production or reliance on imports. Evidence shows Africa can increase yields through research, incentives for profitability, and state support to reduce input costs. The message to leaders is to champion sustainable intensification by investing in soil health, research, and improving farmer profitability.
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HarvestPlus aims to improve nutrition through biofortified staple crops. It has made progress breeding crops with higher micronutrient levels, shown these nutrients are bioavailable, and facilitated the release and adoption of biofortified varieties in several countries. However, challenges remain to scale up delivery in target countries through mass distribution and ensure biofortification programs are sustainable and integrated within agricultural institutions long-term with support from health and development organizations. Addressing malnutrition requires an interdisciplinary "whole systems" approach treating agriculture, food, and health as related.
HarvestPlus: Progress To Date andFuture ChallengesACIAR
HarvestPlus aims to improve nutrition through biofortified staple crops. It has made progress breeding crops with higher micronutrient levels, shown these nutrients are bioavailable, and facilitated the release and adoption of biofortified varieties in several countries. However, challenges remain to scale up delivery in target countries through mass distribution and ensure biofortification efforts are sustainable and integrated within agricultural institutions long-term. Addressing malnutrition will require breaking down divisions between agriculture, food, nutrition and health to view them as interrelated.
Experiences in capacity building and training on the groundACIAR
Experiences in capacity building and training on the ground - Dr Halifa Msami, Newcastle Disease Control Program Coordinator, Tanzanian Veterinary Laboratory Authority
Mobilizing University Capacity for Development Impact: the Case of RUFORUM ACIAR
Mobilizing University Capacity for Development Impact: the Case of RUFORUM - Prof Ekwamu Adipala, Executive Secretary, Regional Universities Forum for Capacity Building in Agriculture (RUFORUM)
Biosciences eastern and central Africa Hub: Capacity Building: Empowering Afr...ACIAR
Biosciences eastern and central Africa Hub: Capacity Building: Empowering African scientists to solve Africa’s agricultural challenges - Dr Segenet Kelemu, Director, Biosciences eastern and central Africa Hub
Mobilizing University Capacity for Development Impact: the Case of RUFORUMACIAR
Mobilizing University Capacity for Development Impact: the Case of RUFORUM - Prof Ekwamu Adipala, Executive Secretary, Regional Universities Forum for Capacity Building in Agriculture (RUFORUM)
Under-research crops and livestock as key contributors to food security in Af...ACIAR
Under-research crops and livestock as key contributors to food security in Africa - Dr Appolinaire Djikeng, Technology Manager, Biosciences Eastern and Central Africa (BecA) Hub
Policies, Institutions, and Markets: Why they matter in Africa now, & what re...ACIAR
Policies, Institutions, and Markets: Why they matter in Africa now, & what researchers can do to help - Dr Karen Brooks, Director, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
2. In this presentation, I will…
Provide brief overview of the important drivers of
change in African agriculture
Make an argument for future-oriented assessments
and point to the kinds of studies that have been done
Show why they have not given an adequate treatment
of African agriculture
Point to some key areas of uncertainty that remain
about Africa’s agricultural future
Discuss some insights from Africa-focused studies
and an expert assessment on foresight for Africa
Draw some final conclusions and recommendations
Page 2
3. Why do future studies for agriculture?
To explore areas of uncertainty to better understand
which might be the real ‘game changers’ in future
In the business world – foresight is used as a way
of challenging assumptions about future growth
potential
The future of agriculture will be shaped by
uncertain driving forces of supply and demand
Focus on the most important drivers of change to
see their influence under alternative trajectories
Helps in the process of planning and prioritizing
investments that take a long time to have effect
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5. Key drivers of future agriculture
Some drivers of change act on a short and fast time
scale – while others act over a longer time period
Short-term drivers (export bans, crop
failures) lead to near-term ‘blips’ and market
shocks that allow limited time for adjustment
More substantial changes in policies (shift in
trade regime) take time to implement will
exert effects w/in a longer time frame
The very slow-moving drivers (climate
change & the impacts of ag R&D) will take
much longer to be felt – and need a much
longer-term perspective for analysis
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7. The type of assessment varies by timescale
Studies will differ according to whether they want to
consider shorter- or longer-term forces of change
Short-term outlooks might consider outcomes
over a year or two ahead (market intelligence)
Medium-term outlooks will consider a ‘baseline’
trend over 10-15 years under current policies and
contrast that with alternative policy impacts
(OECD-FAO, FAPRI, USDA outlooks)
Longer-term studies of 20-30 years look at effects
of more gradual drivers of change w/in complex
storylines of political-economic change (GEO-4,
Millennium Assessment, IAASTD, IPCC)
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8. What do these assessments say about Africa?
Many of these global assessments tend to be rather
coarse in their treatment of agriculture in SS Africa
Since Africa’s share of global trade is
relatively small – it tends to get highly
aggregated (single region or part of RoW)
Coverage of data in SS Africa tends to be
relatively poor compared to other regions
The underlying driving forces and production
systems tend not to be well understood
The tremendous heterogeneity w/in SS
Africa tends to get missed in these studies
Page 8
9. Key messages from IFPRI assessments
IFPRI has undertaken more detailed medium- to long-
term outlooks of African agriculture & its key drivers
Reflects a steady growth in cereals consumption
patterns – mostly as food (incl coarse grains like
millet & sorghum which are feed elsewhere)
Lots of un-tapped potential for irrigation remains –
requires more to come from rainfed production
Meat consumption also projected to grow steadily,
although from lower per capita levels compared with
other regions of the world
Calorie availability improves to 2030 and beyond (with
acceleration after 2015) – overall reduction in
malnutrition progress (but not as fast as in Asia)
Page 9
10. Changing population – both size and
composition
Total population
growth
(2000-2030)
Urbanization
growth
(2000-2030)
14. Key sources of uncertainty in African Ag
There are a number of key areas of uncertainty that
need exploration in the future of African agriculture
The implications for urbanization and wider
socio-economic growth on diets & demand
The effects that agribusiness & commercial
interests will have on value chains & the rural
sector (‘land grabs’, farm size trends)
How important will Africa’s internal trade be
in future compared to exchange with RoW?
The impacts of climate change & incr
variability on various regions of SS Africa
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15. Exploration of African agricultural futures
Held a recent expert consultation to discuss some
critical future drivers of change & their implications
Get a perspective of major issues driving
change in Eastern, Southern & West Africa
Identify some common challenges faced in
quantifying African agricultural futures in
terms of data and methodology
In addition to the issues of urbanization,
agribusiness and climate change
• The importance of the informal sector
• The needed ‘pull’ of non-agricultural sectors
Page 15
16. Some insights from Southern Africa
Consistent demand growth expected
Consumption Growth in demand for potatoes (18%) and wheat-based
patterns products (20%) -- while maize meal demand remains stagnant
Demand for beef expected to grow at annual rate of 3% p.a.,
Resource use Resource constraints will continue to heavily revolve around
patterns land and water availability
Production Sources of increased production likely to come from
patterns intensification and not land expansion
Close linkage b/w dynamics of commodity and energy markets
Slowed domestic and global economic growth will keep SA rand
Market
strong with very gradual depreciation in exchange rate
environment
Uncertainty will persist over policy environment with market
deregulation and changes in trade tariff regime
From BFAP 2012 Outlook
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17. Important messages for AIFSC
There are gains to be made in improving ag performance in
SS Africa – that ACIAR & partners can contribute towards
• Low-hanging fruit remains in terms of closing yield gaps
• Better market connections can help farmers to do this
• More irrigation potential can be exploited but more will still
need to come from rainfed production
Patterns of urbanization & socio-economic growth will
provide important sources of future demand
Some of Africa’s best market potential in future will be
within its own borders and between neighbors – regional
bodies (ECOWAS, COMESA, EAC) can help
Agribusiness (foreign & domestic) will continue to be an
important player in shaping value chains w/in Africa