Shenggen Fan Water for Food International Forum January 29, 2018

1. Shenggen Fan, December 2017
Shenggen Fan, January 2018
Irrigation for sustainable and productive
agri-food systems
Shenggen Fan
Director General, International Food Policy Research Institute
Water for Food International Forum
Washington, D.C. | January 29, 2018

2. Shenggen Fan, December 2017
Shenggen Fan, January 2018
Rising inequality
Water and climate
challenges
Agri-food systems face multiple challenges
Urbanization &
rising middle class
Nutrition imbalance

3. Shenggen Fan, January 2018
Projected demographic shift in
developing countries
Source: Ruel et al. 2017
• Nearly 90% of projected urban population increase is concentrated in Asia
and Africa
• China, India, and Nigeria alone expected to add 900 million urban residents
Source: OECD 2010
0
20
40
60
80
2009 2020 2030
North America Europe
Central and South America Asia Pacific
Share of global middle class, 2009-2030 (%)
Source: UN 2014
Global demographics are rapidly changing
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
Rural
Urban

4. Shenggen Fan, January 2018
Stunted children
(millions)
Overweight children
(millions)
Undernourished population
(millions)
Hunger and undernutrition persist AND alarming rise
in overnutrition
Source: FAO 2017, UNICEF/WHO/WB 2017
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016
Developing countries Africa Asia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016
Developing countries Africa Asia
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Africa Asia World

5. Shenggen Fan, January 2018
Inequalities remain in agri-food systems
Source: World Inequality Report 2018
Women face constraints in agriculture
• Productive asset ownership
e.g. land and livestock
• Control of productive inputs
e.g. access to credit, insurance, technology
• Systemic gender differences
e.g. base education levels; natural resource
knowledge
Women produce less not because of
inefficiency or inability—they lack equal
access to resources
Top 10% income shares in select countries
and regions
Rising income inequality in many
countries, but at different speeds

6. Shenggen Fan, December 2017
Shenggen Fan, January 2018 Source: Bajželj et al. 2014
Without drastic changes to agri-food
systems, we will not be able to meet the
2°C target
• Under BAU, agriculture will emit 20.2
GtCO2e/yr, almost reaching 2°C target
emission allowance for all sectors in 2050
(~21 GtCO2eyr-1)
• Food system transformation will be key for
sufficient mitigation, e.g. yield gap closure,
food waste reduction, and healthy diets
(YG3 scenario)
CT1 = Current yield trend
CT2 = Current yield trend & 50% food waste reduction
CT3 = Current yield trend & 50% food waste reduction &
Healthy diets
YG1 = Yield gap closure (sustainable intensification)
YG2 = Yield gap closure & 50% food waste reduction
YG3 = Yield gap closure & 50% food waste reduction &
Healthy diets
BAU
2° target
by 2050
2009 emissions
from agriculture
Agriculture is a main contributor to climate change

7. Shenggen Fan, December 2017
Shenggen Fan, January 2018
Water stress
Total renewable water withdrawn, BAU, 2050 (%)
Agriculture
accounts
for:
Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011
Agriculture adds to growing water challenges
Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011Shenggen Fan, January 2018
Withdrawals

8. Shenggen Fan, December 2017
Shenggen Fan, January 2018
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
East Asia and
the Pacific
South Asia Sub-Saharan
Africa
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
North America Former Soviet
Union
Europe Middle East and
North Africa
2015 Irrigated 2015 Rainfed
Relatively low levels of irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: IFPRI IMPACT 2018
Total harvested area in 2015, by region (million ha)

9. Shenggen Fan, January 2018
Irrigation plays a key role in agri-food systems
Source: Ringler 2017
Less than one-third of the world’s harvested land is irrigated,
BUT irrigated crop areas generate 40% of global food production
90% of total projected
increase in irrigation
is expected to be in
developing countries
Total harvested area by region, 2010 and projected 2030
(million ha)

10. Shenggen Fan, January 2018
Irrigation will be critical for SDG 2 (1)
Increase in number of people at risk of hunger in 2030 and 2050,
with no irrigation investment beyond maintaining 2015 area (%)
3.3
2.8 2.8
8.6
4.9
7.4
6.9
7.9
9.3
12.1
East Asia and Pacific Latin America Middle East and North
Africa
South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
2030 2050
Source: Ringler et al. 2018

11. Shenggen Fan, January 2018 Source: IFRPI IMPACT Model 3.3
A comprehensive investment
scenario (COMP) during 2015-2030
at $52 bn/year, including
$5 bn/year in irrigation,
can reduce hunger to
5% in developing countries and
10% in Sub-Saharan Africa
Irrigation will be critical for SDG 2 (1)

12. Shenggen Fan, January 2018
• Large-scale irrigation faces challenges in the region
– Relatively high unit cost, relatively smaller command areas, more difficult terrain and
soils, and less rainfall
– Lack of support to complementary rural infrastructure (rural roads, rail, and markets)
and complementary inputs and services
– Historic sub-par interest by African governments
Investment in irrigation must be a priority
especially for Sub-Saharan Africa (1)
• BUT large-scale irrigation has an important role to play
– Can be a component of multi-purpose dams, important for key
irrigated crops, like rice and sugar

13. Shenggen Fan, January 2018
Investment in irrigation must be a priority
especially for Sub-Saharan Africa (2)
• Given this, farmer-led irrigation is more promising
– Spurred by technological development
– Can be more rapidly deployed at lower cost
– Reduces climate variability and other farming risk
– Addresses a range of SDGs beyond food security
o Improves employment, nutrition and income
o Can contribute to women’s empowerment
o More environmentally benign

14. Shenggen Fan, January 2018
Technological innovations
• Digitization and remote sensing tools for water resources management and monitoring
• Solar panels to power water supply (with institutions to manage depletion)
Promote innovations and improvements in irrigation
Institutional innovations
• Strengthen water property rights and governance systems –
(e.g. smallholder associations inclusive of women)
Supporting infrastructure
• Better roads and market access
• Credit, extension, complementary inputs (particularly fertilizers and
judicious pest management)

15. Shenggen Fan, January 2018
We must work together to build sustainable and
productive agri-food systems