The document summarizes a presentation on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). It includes an introduction to CAPM, objectives to understand the relationship between risk and return and validate the CAPM model through literature review. Research questions on whether risk and return are related and if CAPM is valid. The methodology section describes using Markowitz's model, the three-factor model, and regression analysis. While some studies have found issues, the conclusion is that CAPM remains the best option for measuring expected returns though could be improved. Recommendations include using daily data for betas and carefully selecting risk-free rates and market returns.
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
A model that describes the relationship between risk and expected return. The general idea behind CAPM is that investors need to be compensated in two ways: time value of money & risk. The time value of money is represented by the risk-free (rf) rate in the formula and compensates the investors for placing money in any investment over a period of time. The other half of the formula represents risk and calculates the amount of compensation the investor needs for taking on additional risk. This is calculated by taking a risk gauge (beta) that compares the returns of the asset to the market over a period of time and to the market premium (Rm-rf).
Asset Pricing and Portfolio Theory
I have presented a unique analysis which showcases the concepts of Aggregate & Aggregate lending and the numerical aspects of CAPM theory
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
A model that describes the relationship between risk and expected return. The general idea behind CAPM is that investors need to be compensated in two ways: time value of money & risk. The time value of money is represented by the risk-free (rf) rate in the formula and compensates the investors for placing money in any investment over a period of time. The other half of the formula represents risk and calculates the amount of compensation the investor needs for taking on additional risk. This is calculated by taking a risk gauge (beta) that compares the returns of the asset to the market over a period of time and to the market premium (Rm-rf).
Asset Pricing and Portfolio Theory
I have presented a unique analysis which showcases the concepts of Aggregate & Aggregate lending and the numerical aspects of CAPM theory
Portofolio efisien ialah portofolio yang memaksimalkan return yang diharapkan dengan tingkat risiko tertentu yang bersedia ditanggungnya, atau portofolio yang menawarkan risiko terendah dengan tingkat return tertentu.
Mengenai perilaku investor dalam pembuatan keputusan investasi diasumsikan bahwa semua investor tidak menyukai risiko (risk averse).
Misalnya jika ada investasi A (return 15%, risiko 7%) dan investasi B (return 15%, risiko 5%), maka investor yang risk averse akan cenderung memilih investasi B.
Portofolio efisien ialah portofolio yang memaksimalkan return yang diharapkan dengan tingkat risiko tertentu yang bersedia ditanggungnya, atau portofolio yang menawarkan risiko terendah dengan tingkat return tertentu.
Mengenai perilaku investor dalam pembuatan keputusan investasi diasumsikan bahwa semua investor tidak menyukai risiko (risk averse).
Misalnya jika ada investasi A (return 15%, risiko 7%) dan investasi B (return 15%, risiko 5%), maka investor yang risk averse akan cenderung memilih investasi B.
Dividend portfolio – multi-period performance of portfolio selection based so...Bogusz Jelinski
What will happen to your investment if you ignore change of share prices while calculating both returns and risk during stocks portfolio selection? Is it profitable in long term to
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Testing and extending the capital asset pricing modelGabriel Koh
This paper attempts to prove whether the conventional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) holds with respect to a set of asset returns. Starting with the Fama-Macbeth cross-sectional regression, we prove through the significance of pricing errors that the CAPM does not hold. Hence, we expand the original CAPM by including risk factors and factor-mimicking portfolios built on firm-specific characteristics and test for their significance in the model. Ultimately, by adding significant factors, we find that the model helps to better explain asset returns, but does still not entirely capture pricing errors.
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The Capital Asset Pricing Model:
Theory and Evidence
Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French
T he capital asset pricing model (CAPM) of William Sharpe (1964) and JohnLintner (1965) marks the birth of asset pricing theory (resulting in aNobel Prize for Sharpe in 1990). Four decades later, the CAPM is still
widely used in applications, such as estimating the cost of capital for firms and
evaluating the performance of managed portfolios. It is the centerpiece of MBA
investment courses. Indeed, it is often the only asset pricing model taught in these
courses.1
The attraction of the CAPM is that it offers powerful and intuitively pleasing
predictions about how to measure risk and the relation between expected return
and risk. Unfortunately, the empirical record of the model is poor—poor enough
to invalidate the way it is used in applications. The CAPM’s empirical problems may
reflect theoretical failings, the result of many simplifying assumptions. But they may
also be caused by difficulties in implementing valid tests of the model. For example,
the CAPM says that the risk of a stock should be measured relative to a compre-
hensive “market portfolio” that in principle can include not just traded financial
assets, but also consumer durables, real estate and human capital. Even if we take
a narrow view of the model and limit its purview to traded financial assets, is it
1 Although every asset pricing model is a capital asset pricing model, the finance profession reserves the
acronym CAPM for the specific model of Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965) and Black (1972) discussed
here. Thus, throughout the paper we refer to the Sharpe-Lintner-Black model as the CAPM.
y Eugene F. Fama is Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance,
Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois. Kenneth R. French is
Carl E. and Catherine M. Heidt Professor of Finance, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth
College, Hanover, New Hampshire. Their e-mail addresses are �[email protected]
edu� and �[email protected]�, respectively.
Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 18, Number 3—Summer 2004 —Pages 25– 46
legitimate to limit further the market portfolio to U.S. common stocks (a typical
choice), or should the market be expanded to include bonds, and other financial
assets, perhaps around the world? In the end, we argue that whether the model’s
problems reflect weaknesses in the theory or in its empirical implementation, the
failure of the CAPM in empirical tests implies that most applications of the model
are invalid.
We begin by outlining the logic of t ...
The article re-institutes the investor faith in CAPM model and talks about how CAPM is very closely coupled to the actual investment practices at the ground level. The general criticism of CAPM model that it does not fit empirical asset pricing well cast doubt on the validity of model have been explained.
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The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
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The capital asset pricing model
1.
2. The Capital Asset Pricing Model:
Theory and Evidence.
Course title:
Seminar in Finance
Presenter:
Bilal Shahzad Khan.
3. Table of Contents:
1. Introduction
• Objective
• Research questions
• Hypothesis
2. Problem statement
3. Contribution
4. Literature review
5. Data
6. Variables
7. Methods
8. Analysis
9. Conclusion
10. Recommendation
4. INTRODUCTION:
CAPM:
“A model that describes the relationship between risk and expected return and that is used in the
pricing of risky securities.” -investopedia
The CAPM formula is:
R a = rrf + βa (r m- r rf)
where:
rrf = the rate of return for a risk-free security
rm = the broad market's expected rate of return
β = Beta of the asset
5. OBJECTIVES:
Objectives of this study is to,
Know relationship between risk and return.
Validity of CAPM model.
Proving validity by Literature review of previous studies.
6. RESEARCH QUESTIONS:
Is there any relationship between risk and return?
Is the CAMP model valid and applicable in present time?
7. HYPOTHESIS:
Ho= Market Betas completely explaining the expected return by capturing all kind
of risks.
H1= Market Betas isn’t completely explaining the expected return by capturing all
kind of risks.
8. PROBLEM STATEMENT:
Every investor wants maximum expected return. But this is a
difficult decision to select a security that will give high expected return among all,
when there are various associated uncertain risks. There are possibilities that
expected returns may divert due to beta or market behavior.
9. CONTRIBUTION:
CAPM model is better in calculating the expected return of individual as well as
portfolio return.
Investors can easily find the E(R) and also look its future diversified behavior.
It provides a clear reflection of market risk by its Beta.
10. LITERATURE REVIEW:
CAPM model is now built on Harry Markowitz’s firstly introduced model of portfolio choice in 1959.
Sharpe (1964) and Lintner (1965) predicted that the premium per unit of beta is the expected market return minus
the risk-free interest rate and they added two assumptions
Complete agreement
Borrowing and lending at risk free rate
Fisher black (1972) developed a version of the CAPM without risk free borrowing and lending.
Blume, Friend (1970) Jensen & Scholes (1972) work with portfolio individual securities by saying if CAPM explains
security returns it should also explain portfolio returns.
11. LITERATURE REVIEW:
Fama and Macbath (1973) proposed a method for addressing the inference problem caused by correlation of the residual in
cross-section regression. Later in (1993-96) they also introduced Three-Factor Model.
Gibson, Ross and Shanken (1989) provided F-test that gives simple economic interpretation. The estimator then tests whether
the efficient set provided by the combination of this tangency portfolio and the risk-free asset is reliably superior to the one
obtained by combining the risk-free asset with the market proxy alone.
Merton's (1973) intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM), for one, is an extension of the CAPM.
12. DATA:
Data base of CRSP ( Center of Research in Security Prices) of the University Of
Chicago was used to check the betas of followings
NYSE (1928-2003)
AMEX (1963-2003)
NASDAQ (1972-2003)
13. VARIABLES:
Beta β:
“Beta is a measure of the volatility, or systematic risk of a security, or a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole. Beta is used in
the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), a model that calculates the expected return of an asset based on its beta and expected market returns. Also
known as "beta coefficient.“ -investopedia
Expected return R:
“The amount one would anticipate receiving on an investment that has various known or expected rates of return. For example, if one
invested in a stock that had a 50% chance of producing a 10% profit and a 50% chance of producing a 5% loss, the expected return would be 2.5% (0.5 *
0.1 + 0.5 * -0.05). It is important to note, however, that the expected return is usually based on historical data and is not guaranteed.” -
investopedia
• Market premium
• Market return
• Covariance
• Variance (residual variance)
14. METHODOLOGY:
1. Markowitz”s Frontier
2. Three-factor model
3. Price Ratio Problem
4. Time series regression
5. Cross section regression
6. F-Test
7. Time return mean variance
15. METHODOLOGY:
Markowitz model:
In Markowitz's model, an investor selects a portfolio
at time t-1 that produces a stock return at t.
in the sense that the portfolios
1) Minimize the variance of portfolio return, given
expected return,
2) Maximize expected return, given variance.
Thus, the Markowitz approach is often
called a "mean variance model."
16. METHODOLOGY:
Fama and French Three-factor Model:
They show that the returns on the stocks of small firms covary more with one another than with returns on the stocks of large firms, and
returns on high book-to-market (value) stocks covary more with one another than with returns on low book-to-market (growth) stocks.
(Three factor model) E(R) – Rƒ = β [ E(Rm – Rƒ)] + β E(SMB) + β (HML)
• SMB, (small minus big) is the difference between the returns on
diversified portfolios of small and big stocks,
• HML (high minus low) is the
difference between the return on diversified portfolios of high and low B/M
stocks.
• The betas are slopes in the multiple regression of R — Rƒ on Rm— Rƒ
SMB and HML.
17. METHODOLOGY:
Price Ratio Problem:
A major problem for the CAPM is that portfolios
formed by sorting stocks on price ratios produce a wide range
of average returns, but the average returns are not positively
related to market betas (Lakonishok, Sbleifer and Vishny, 1994;
Fama and French, 1996, 1998).
18. ANALYSIS:
Various empirical tests were done to check whether it is correct by all means
1) Test on risk Premium:
2 problems were marked after this test
• Estimates of beta for individual assets are inaccurate.
• The regression residuals have common sources of variation
2) Testing whether Market Beta explain Expected Returns:
Beta had explained better the individual security return in early stages than portfolio. Later, tests explained that Beta also
explains the expected returns of both.
19. ANALAYSIS:
3) Recent Tests:
1) When common stocks are sorted on earnings-price ratios, future returns on high E/P stocks are higher than
predicted by the CAPM. -Basu's (1977)
2) A size effect: when stocks are sorted on market capitalization average returns on small stocks are higher than
predicted by the CAPM. -Banz (1981)
3) High debt-equity ratios (book value of debt over the market Value of equity, a measure of leverage) are linked
with returns that are too high relation to their market betas. -Bhandari (1988)
4) Stocks with high book to market equity ratios (B/M, the ratio of the book value of a common stock to its market
value) have high average returns that are not captured by their betas. -Stattnan (1980) and Rosenberg, Reid and Lanstein
(1985)
20. ANALAYSIS:
It is obvious that investor cares about how their portfolio return co varies with future
investment opportunities and labor income. So a portfolio return variance misses important
dimension of risks. If this is true, market beta doesn’t completely represent asset’s risk.
Merton (1973) did extension in CAPM model as ICAPM (Intertemporal Capital Pricing
Model) which helps investor to better consume their payoff with opportunities.
21. CONCLUSION:
It is stated that so many studies are conducted to disprove CAPM as the standard market pricing theory, yet none of
any proved it inappropriate for estimating return.
Criticisms are done by presenting different studies and theories. Some of few did nothing but explained CAPM
theoretically better then Sharpe and Lintner.
Fisher Black’s study got success empirically offering ‘irrational pricing’ and ‘simple discounting rule’ for CAPM’s beta
validity.
To some extent Jensen’s Alpha can also be used to better measure the abnormal performances. Therefore present
CAPM model is made as sharpe-Lintner-Black model comprehensively.
As there is no better alternative of CAPM model yet therefore it is better option to measure/estimate expected return.
22. RECOMMENDATIONS:
For the better usage and reliability of CAPM model, one should use a day-to-day data which
gives more efficient results then month-by-month data.
Beta should be carefully calculated when we are using it for portfolio investment.
One should undertake the risk free rate and market return.
Further work can be done over CAPM model for its alternative or betterment.