This chapter discusses risk and return, including:
- Risk and return of individual assets is measured using probability distributions and expected return and standard deviation.
- Portfolio risk is lower than holding individual assets due to diversification. Beta measures the sensitivity of an asset's return to market movements.
- The Security Market Line shows the expected return of an asset based on its beta and the risk-free rate. The Capital Asset Pricing Model suggests assets should be priced based on their systematic risk.
Managerial Finance. "Risk and Return". Types of risk. Required return. Correlation. Diversification. Beta coefficient. Risk of a portfolio. Capital Asset Pricing Model. Security Market Line.
Many investors mistakenly base the success of their portfolios on returns alone. Few consider the risk that they took to achieve those returns. Since the 1960s, investors have known how to quantify and measure risk with the variability of returns, but no single measure actually looked at both risk and return together. Today, we have three sets of performance measurement tools to assist us with our portfolio evaluations. The Treynor, Sharpe and Jensen ratios combine risk and return performance into a single value, but each is slightly different. Which one is best for you? Why should you care? Let's find out.
Portfolio performance measures should be a key aspect of the investment decision process. These tools provide the necessary information for investors to assess how effectively their money has been invested (or may be invested). Remember, portfolio returns are only part of the story. Without evaluating risk-adjusted returns, an investor cannot possibly see the whole investment picture, which may inadvertently lead to clouded investment decisions.
Risk and Return Analysis .ppt By Sumon SheikhSumon Sheikh
Risk and return analysis presentation with suitable examples. A perfect class-presentation file.
Prepared by Sumon Sheikh, BBA Student, majoring Accounting and Information Systems at Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University, Trishal, Mymensingh-2224, Bangladesh.
Because of the risk-return tradeoff, you must be aware of your personal risk tolerance when choosing investments for your portfolio. Taking on some risk is the price of achieving returns; therefore, if you want to make money, you can't cut out all risk. The goal instead is to find an appropriate balance - one that generates some profit, but still allows you to sleep at night.
Risk And Return In Financial Management PowerPoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
Analyze investment risk and profitability with this professionally designed Risk and Return in Financial Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides. The content ready portfolio risk-return trade-off PowerPoint compete deck comprises of PPT slides such as risk and return of stock bonds, and T-bills, investment strategies of predefined portfolios, risk and return of portfolio manager, measuring stock volatility proportionate, portfolio return analysis, calculating asset beta, portfolio value at risk, ranking the passive income streams impact to name a few. Explain the relationship between risk on investing in the financial market with potential return using portfolio risk analysis PPT slides. Utilize the visually appealing risk-reward relationship presentation design to structure your financial presentation. Furthermore, portfolio risk-return in security analysis PPT visuals are completely customizable. You can add or delete the content if needed. Download this visually appealing security analysis and portfolio management presentation deck to manage investment risk. Our Risk And Return In Financial Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides ensure you feel joyous. You will find the inspiration you desire.
risk and return. Defining Return, Return Example, Defining Risk,Determining Expected Return , How to Determine the Expected Return and Standard Deviation, Determining Standard Deviation (Risk Measure), Portfolio Risk and Expected Return Example, Determining Portfolio Expected Return, Determining Portfolio Standard Deviation, Summary of the Portfolio Return and Risk Calculation, Total Risk = Systematic Risk + Unsystematic Risk,
Managerial Finance. "Risk and Return". Types of risk. Required return. Correlation. Diversification. Beta coefficient. Risk of a portfolio. Capital Asset Pricing Model. Security Market Line.
Many investors mistakenly base the success of their portfolios on returns alone. Few consider the risk that they took to achieve those returns. Since the 1960s, investors have known how to quantify and measure risk with the variability of returns, but no single measure actually looked at both risk and return together. Today, we have three sets of performance measurement tools to assist us with our portfolio evaluations. The Treynor, Sharpe and Jensen ratios combine risk and return performance into a single value, but each is slightly different. Which one is best for you? Why should you care? Let's find out.
Portfolio performance measures should be a key aspect of the investment decision process. These tools provide the necessary information for investors to assess how effectively their money has been invested (or may be invested). Remember, portfolio returns are only part of the story. Without evaluating risk-adjusted returns, an investor cannot possibly see the whole investment picture, which may inadvertently lead to clouded investment decisions.
Risk and Return Analysis .ppt By Sumon SheikhSumon Sheikh
Risk and return analysis presentation with suitable examples. A perfect class-presentation file.
Prepared by Sumon Sheikh, BBA Student, majoring Accounting and Information Systems at Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University, Trishal, Mymensingh-2224, Bangladesh.
Because of the risk-return tradeoff, you must be aware of your personal risk tolerance when choosing investments for your portfolio. Taking on some risk is the price of achieving returns; therefore, if you want to make money, you can't cut out all risk. The goal instead is to find an appropriate balance - one that generates some profit, but still allows you to sleep at night.
Risk And Return In Financial Management PowerPoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
Analyze investment risk and profitability with this professionally designed Risk and Return in Financial Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides. The content ready portfolio risk-return trade-off PowerPoint compete deck comprises of PPT slides such as risk and return of stock bonds, and T-bills, investment strategies of predefined portfolios, risk and return of portfolio manager, measuring stock volatility proportionate, portfolio return analysis, calculating asset beta, portfolio value at risk, ranking the passive income streams impact to name a few. Explain the relationship between risk on investing in the financial market with potential return using portfolio risk analysis PPT slides. Utilize the visually appealing risk-reward relationship presentation design to structure your financial presentation. Furthermore, portfolio risk-return in security analysis PPT visuals are completely customizable. You can add or delete the content if needed. Download this visually appealing security analysis and portfolio management presentation deck to manage investment risk. Our Risk And Return In Financial Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides ensure you feel joyous. You will find the inspiration you desire.
risk and return. Defining Return, Return Example, Defining Risk,Determining Expected Return , How to Determine the Expected Return and Standard Deviation, Determining Standard Deviation (Risk Measure), Portfolio Risk and Expected Return Example, Determining Portfolio Expected Return, Determining Portfolio Standard Deviation, Summary of the Portfolio Return and Risk Calculation, Total Risk = Systematic Risk + Unsystematic Risk,
1CHAPTER 6Risk, Return, and the Capital Asset Pricing Model.docxhyacinthshackley2629
1
CHAPTER 6
Risk, Return, and the Capital Asset Pricing Model
2
Topics in Chapter
Basic return concepts
Basic risk concepts
Stand-alone risk
Portfolio (market) risk
Risk and return: CAPM/SML
1
Value = + + +
FCF1
FCF2
FCF∞
(1 + WACC)1
(1 + WACC)∞
(1 + WACC)2
Free cash flow
(FCF)
Market interest rates
Firm’s business risk
Market risk aversion
Firm’s debt/equity mix
Cost of debt
Cost of equity
Weighted average
cost of capital
(WACC)
Net operating
profit after taxes
Required investments
in operating capital
−
=
Determinants of Intrinsic Value:
The Cost of Equity
...
For value box in Ch 4 time value FM13.
4
What are investment returns?
Investment returns measure the financial results of an investment.
Returns may be historical or prospective (anticipated).
Returns can be expressed in:
Dollar terms.
Percentage terms.
5
An investment costs $1,000 and is sold after 1 year for $1,100.
Dollar return:
Percentage return:
$ Received - $ Invested
$1,100 - $1,000 = $100.
$ Return/$ Invested
$100/$1,000 = 0.10 = 10%.
2
6
What is investment risk?
Typically, investment returns are not known with certainty.
Investment risk pertains to the probability of earning a return less than that expected.
The greater the chance of a return far below the expected return, the greater the risk.
2
7
Probability Distribution: Which stock is riskier? Why?
8
Consider the Following
Investment AlternativesEcon.Prob.T-BillAltaRepoAm F.MPBust 0.10 8.0% -22.0% 28.0% 10.0% -13.0%Below avg. 0.20 8.0 -2.0 14.7 -10.0 1.0Avg. 0.40 8.0 20.0 0.0 7.0 15.0Above avg. 0.20 8.0 35.0 -10.0 45.0 29.0Boom 0.10 8.0 50.0 -20.0 30.0 43.0 1.00
9
What is unique about the T-bill return?
The T-bill will return 8% regardless of the state of the economy.
Is the T-bill riskless? Explain.
5
10
Alta Inds. and Repo Men vs. the Economy
Alta Inds. moves with the economy, so it is positively correlated with the economy. This is the typical situation.
Repo Men moves counter to the economy. Such negative correlation is unusual.
7
11
Calculate the expected rate of return on each alternative.
r = expected rate of return.
rAlta = 0.10(-22%) + 0.20(-2%)
+ 0.40(20%) + 0.20(35%)
+ 0.10(50%) = 17.4%.
^
^
n
∑
r =
^
i=1
riPi.
12
Alta has the highest rate of return. Does that make it best?^rAlta 17.4%Market15.0Am. Foam13.8T-bill 8.0Repo Men 1.7
13
What is the standard deviation
of returns for each alternative?
σ = Standard deviation
σ = √ Variance = √ σ2
n
∑
i=1
= √
(ri – r)2 Pi.
^
14
= [(-22 - 17.4)20.10 + (-2 - 17.4)20.20
+ (20 - 17.4)20.40 + (35 - 17.4)20.20
+ (50 - 17.4)20.10]1/2
= 20.0%.
Standard Deviation of Alta Industries
11
15
T-bills = 0.0%.
Alta = 20.0%.
Repo = 13.4%.
Am Foam = 18.
Investment returns measure financial results of an investment.
Returns may be historical or prospective (anticipated).
Returns can be expressed in:
($) dollar terms.
(%) percentage terms.
Typically, investment returns are not known with certainty.
Investment risk pertains to the probability of earning a return less than expected.
Greater the chance of a return far below the expected return, greater the risk
2024.06.01 Introducing a competency framework for languag learning materials ...Sandy Millin
http://sandymillin.wordpress.com/iateflwebinar2024
Published classroom materials form the basis of syllabuses, drive teacher professional development, and have a potentially huge influence on learners, teachers and education systems. All teachers also create their own materials, whether a few sentences on a blackboard, a highly-structured fully-realised online course, or anything in between. Despite this, the knowledge and skills needed to create effective language learning materials are rarely part of teacher training, and are mostly learnt by trial and error.
Knowledge and skills frameworks, generally called competency frameworks, for ELT teachers, trainers and managers have existed for a few years now. However, until I created one for my MA dissertation, there wasn’t one drawing together what we need to know and do to be able to effectively produce language learning materials.
This webinar will introduce you to my framework, highlighting the key competencies I identified from my research. It will also show how anybody involved in language teaching (any language, not just English!), teacher training, managing schools or developing language learning materials can benefit from using the framework.
Students, digital devices and success - Andreas Schleicher - 27 May 2024..pptxEduSkills OECD
Andreas Schleicher presents at the OECD webinar ‘Digital devices in schools: detrimental distraction or secret to success?’ on 27 May 2024. The presentation was based on findings from PISA 2022 results and the webinar helped launch the PISA in Focus ‘Managing screen time: How to protect and equip students against distraction’ https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/managing-screen-time_7c225af4-en and the OECD Education Policy Perspective ‘Students, digital devices and success’ can be found here - https://oe.cd/il/5yV
The Indian economy is classified into different sectors to simplify the analysis and understanding of economic activities. For Class 10, it's essential to grasp the sectors of the Indian economy, understand their characteristics, and recognize their importance. This guide will provide detailed notes on the Sectors of the Indian Economy Class 10, using specific long-tail keywords to enhance comprehension.
For more information, visit-www.vavaclasses.com
Read| The latest issue of The Challenger is here! We are thrilled to announce that our school paper has qualified for the NATIONAL SCHOOLS PRESS CONFERENCE (NSPC) 2024. Thank you for your unwavering support and trust. Dive into the stories that made us stand out!
This is a presentation by Dada Robert in a Your Skill Boost masterclass organised by the Excellence Foundation for South Sudan (EFSS) on Saturday, the 25th and Sunday, the 26th of May 2024.
He discussed the concept of quality improvement, emphasizing its applicability to various aspects of life, including personal, project, and program improvements. He defined quality as doing the right thing at the right time in the right way to achieve the best possible results and discussed the concept of the "gap" between what we know and what we do, and how this gap represents the areas we need to improve. He explained the scientific approach to quality improvement, which involves systematic performance analysis, testing and learning, and implementing change ideas. He also highlighted the importance of client focus and a team approach to quality improvement.
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17Celine George
It is possible to hide or invisible some fields in odoo. Commonly using “invisible” attribute in the field definition to invisible the fields. This slide will show how to make a field invisible in odoo 17.
We all have good and bad thoughts from time to time and situation to situation. We are bombarded daily with spiraling thoughts(both negative and positive) creating all-consuming feel , making us difficult to manage with associated suffering. Good thoughts are like our Mob Signal (Positive thought) amidst noise(negative thought) in the atmosphere. Negative thoughts like noise outweigh positive thoughts. These thoughts often create unwanted confusion, trouble, stress and frustration in our mind as well as chaos in our physical world. Negative thoughts are also known as “distorted thinking”.
1. Chapter 9 RISK AND RETURN Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
2.
3. RISK AND RETURN OF A SINGLE ASSET Rate of Return Rate of Return = Annual income + Ending price-Beginning price Beginning price Beginning price Current yield Capital gains yield Probability Distributions Rate of Return (%) State of the Probability of Bharat Foods Oriental Shipping Economy Occurrence Boom 0.30 25 50 Normal 0.50 20 20 Recession 0.20 15 -10 Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
4. RISK AND RETURN OF A SINGLE ASSET Expected Rate of Return n E ( R ) = p i R i i =1 E ( R b ) = (0.3)(25%) +(0.50)(20%) + (0.20) (15%)= 20.5% Standard Deviation of Return 2 = p i ( R i - E ( R )) 2 = 2 State of the Bharat Foods Stock Economy p i R i p i R i R i - E ( R ) ( R i - E ( R ))2 p i (R i - E ( R ))2 1. Boom 0.30 25 7.5 4.5 20.25 6.075 2. Normal 0.50 20 10.0 -0.5 0.25 0.125 3. Recession 0.20 0.20 15 3.0 -5.5 30.25 6.050 p i R i = 20.5 p i ( R i – E ( R ))2 = 12.25 σ = [ p i ( R i - E ( R ))2]1/2 = (12.25)1/2 = 3.5% Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
5. EXPECTED RETURN ON A PORTFOLIO E ( R p ) = w i E ( R i ) = 0.1 x 10 + 0.2 x 12 + 0.3 x 15 + 0.2 x 18 + 0.2 x 20 = 15.5 percent Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
6. DIVERSIFICATION AND PORTFOLIO RISK Probability Distribution of Returns State of the Probability Return on Return on Return on Econcmy Stock A Stock B Portfolio 1 0.20 15% -5% 5% 2 0.20 -5% 15 5% 3 0.20 5 25 15% 4 0.20 35 5 20% 5 0.20 25 35 30% Expected Return Stock A : 0.2(15%) + 0.2(-5%) + 0.2(5%) +0.2(35%) + 0.2(25%) = 15% Stock B : 0.2(-5%) + 0.2(15%) + 0.2(25%) + 0.2(5%) + 0.2(35%) = 15% Portfolio of A and B : 0.2(5%) + 0.2(5%) + 0.2(15%) + 0.2(20%) + 0.2(30%) = 15% Standard Deviation Stock A : σ 2 A = 0.2(15-15) 2 + 0.2(-5-15) 2 + 0.2(5-15) 2 + 0.2(35-15) 2 + 0.20 (25-15) 2 = 200 σ A = (200) 1/2 = 14.14% Stock B : σ 2 B = 0.2(-5-15) 2 + 0.2(15-15) 2 + 0.2(25-15) 2 + 0.2(5-15) 2 + 0.2 (35-15) 2 = 200 σ B = (200) 1/2 = 14.14% Portfolio : σ 2 ( A + B ) = 0.2(5-15) 2 + 0.2(5-15) 2 + 0.2(15-15) 2 + 0.2(20-15) 2 + 0.2(30-15) 2 = 90 σ A + B = (90) 1/2 = 9.49% Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
7. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DIVERSIFICATION AND RISK Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
8. MARKET RISK VS UNIQUE RISK Total Risk = Unique risk + Market risk Unique risk of a security represents that portion of its total risk which stems from company-specific factors. Market risk of security represents that portion of its risk which is attributable to economy –wide factors. Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
9. PORTFOLIO RISK : 2-SECURITY CASE p = [ w 1 2 1 2 + w 2 2 2 2 +2 w 1 w 2 12 1 2 ] 1/2 Example w 1 = 0.6, w 2 = 0.4, 1 = 0.10 2 = 0.16, 12 = 0.5 p = [0.6 2 x 0.10 2 + 0.4 2 x 0.16 2 + 2x 0.6x 0.4x 0.5x 0.10 x 0.16] 1/2 = 10.7 percent Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
10. RISK OF AN N - ASSET PORTFOLIO 2 p = w i w j ij i j n x n MATRIX Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
11. CORRELATION Covariance (x, y) Coefficient of correlation (x,y) = Standard Standard deviation of x deviation of y xy xy = x . y • • • • • • • • • x y Positive correlation • • • • • • x y x y Perfect positive correlation x y Zero correlation • • • • • • • • Negative correlation x y Perfect negative correlation • • • • • • • X Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
12. MEASUREMENT OF MARKET RISK THE SENSITIVITY OF A SECURITY TO MARKET MOVEMENTS IS CALLED BETA . BETA REFLECTS THE SLOPE OF A THE LINEAR REGRESSION RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE RETURN ON THE SECURITY AND THE RETURN ON THE PORTFOLIO Relationship between Security Return and Market Return Security Return Market return Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
13. CALCULATION OF BETA For calculating the beta of a security, the following market model is employed: R jt = j + j R e j where R jt = return of security j in period t j = intercept term alpha j = regression coefficient, beta R = return on market portfolio in period t e j = random error term Beta reflects the slope of the above regression relationship. It is equal to: Cov ( R j , R M ) ρ jM ρ j σ M ρ j M σ j j = = = σ 2 M σ 2 M σ M where Cov = covariance between the return on security j and the return on market portfolio M . It is equal to: n _ _ R jt – R j )( R Mt – R M )/( n -1) i =1 Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
14.
15. CHARACTERISTIC LINE FOR SECURITY j • • • • 5 10 15 20 25 30 – 10 – 5 – 10 – 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 R j R M • • • • • • Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
16. RECAPITULATION OF THE STORY SO FAR • Securities are risky because their returns are variable. • The most commonly used measure of risk or variability in finance is standard deviation. • The risk of a security can be split into two parts: unique risk and market risk. • Unique risk stems from firm-specific factors, whereas market risk emanates from economy-wide factors. • Portfolio diversification washes away unique risk, but not market risk. Hence, the risk of a fully diversified portfolio is its market risk. • The contribution of a security to the risk of a fully diversified portfolio is measured by its beta, which reflects its sensitivity to the general market movements. Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
17.
18. SECURITY MARKET LINE EXPECTED • P RETURN SML 14% 8% • 0 ALPHA = EXPECTED - FAIR RETURN RETURN 1.0 β i
19. Rate of Return C Risk premium for an aggressive 17.5 B security 15.0 A 12.5 Risk premium for a neutral security R f = 10 Risk premium for a defensive security 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Beta BETA (MARKET RISK) & EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
20. Increase in anticipated inflation Inflation premium Real required rate of return Rate of return Risk (Beta) SML2 SML1 SECURITY MARKET LINE CAUSED BY AN INCREASE IN INFLATION Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
21. SECURITY MARKET LINE CAUSED BY A DECREASE IN RISK AVERSION Rate of return Risk (Beta) New market risk premium SML1 SML2 Original market risk premium Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
22.
23. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON CAPM 1. SET UP THE SAMPLE DATA R it , R Mt , R ft 2. ESTIMATE THE SECURITY CHARACTER- -ISTIC LINES R it - R ft = a i + b i (R Mt - R ft ) + e it 3. ESTIMATE THE SECURITY MARKET LINE R i = 0 + 1 b i + e i , i = 1, … 75 Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
24. EVIDENCE IF CAPM HOLDS • THE RELATION … LINEAR .. TERMS LIKE b i 2 .. NO EXPLANATORY POWER • 0 ≃ R f • 1 ≃ R M - R f • NO OTHER FACTORS, SUCH AS COMPANY SIZE OR TOTAL VARIANCE, SHOULD AFFECT R i • THE MODEL SHOULD EXPLAIN A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF VARIATION IN RETURNS AMONG SECURITIES Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
25. GENERAL FINDINGS • THE RELATION … APPEARS .. LINEAR • 0 > R f • 1 < R M - R f • IN ADDITION TO BETA, SOME OTHER FACTORS, SUCH AS STANDARD DEVIATION OF RETURNS AND COMPANY SIZE, TOO HAVE A BEARING ON RETURN • BETA DOES NOT EXPLAIN A VERY HIGH PERCENTAGE OF THE VARIANCE IN RETURN Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
26. CONCLUSIONS PROBLEMS • STUDIES USE HISTORICAL RETURNS AS PROXIES FOR EXPECTATIONS • STUDIES USE A MARKET INDEX AS A PROXY POPULARITY • SOME OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE OF RISK PREMIUM .. BETTER THAN A COMPLETELY SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATE • BASIC MESSAGE .. ACCEPTED BY ALL • NO CONSENSUS ON ALTERNATIVE Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
27. ARBITRAGE - PRICING THEORY RETURN GENERATING PROCESS R i = a i + b i 1 I 1 + b i 2 I 2 …+ b ij I 1 + e i EQUILIBRIUM RISK - RETURN RELATIONSHIP E ( R i ) = 0 + b i 1 1 + b i 2 2 + … b ij j j = RISK PREMIUM FOR THE TYPE OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH FACTOR j Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
28. SUMMING UP • Variance (a measure of dispersion) or its square root, the standard deviation, is commonly used to reflect risk • The variance is defined as the average squared deviation of each possible return from its expected value. • Diversification reduces risk, but at a diminishing rate • According to the modern portfolio theory: • The unique risk of a security represents that portion of its total risk which stems from firm-specific factors. • The market risk of a security represents that portion of its risk which is attributable to economy wide factors. • The variance of the return of a two-security portfolio is: p 2 = w 1 2 1 2 + w 2 2 2 2 + 2 w 1 w 2 12 1 2 Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore
29. • Portfolio diversification washes away unique risk, but not market risk. Hence the risk of a fully diversified portfolio is its market risk. • The contribution of a security to the risk of a fully diversified portfolio is measured by its beta, which reflects its sensitivity to the general market movements. • According to the capital asset pricing model, risk and return are related as follows: Expected rate = Risk-free rate Expected return on Risk-free market portfolio – rate • In a well-ordered market, investors are compensated primarily for bearing market risk, but not unique risk. To earn a higher expected rate of return, one has to bear a higher degree of market risk. + Beta of the security Centre for Financial Management , Bangalore