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Screening

Dr. Akhilesh Bhargava
      MD, DHA, PGDHRM
   Prof. Community Medicine
               &
    Director-SIHFW, Jaipur
Screening
“ application of a medical procedure
                or a test,
                 rapidly,
    to people who as yet have not
   developed symptoms of disease
           for the purpose of
    determining their likelihood of
        developing of disease” .



       Akhilesh Bhargava          2
Why screen
Purpose:
       To reduce morbidity/mortality
       by detection at an early stage
    where treatment is more successful,
              and cost effective
      Assumption- “Favorable prognosis”
       as treatment will start before clinical
           manifestation and arrest the
            process


            Akhilesh Bhargava             3
Screening criteria

      a disease need to satisfy:

Ø   Life threatening,irreversible,serious

Ø   Treatment at early stage to be more
       effective than one given after.

Ø    High prevalence of detectable pre-
               clinical stage

          Akhilesh Bhargava                 4
Qualities of screening test
    üLow cost
    üEasy to administer
                Øskills
                Øtechnique
                Øminimal discomfort
    ü Valid
    ü Reliable
    ü Reproducible



        Akhilesh Bhargava             5
Validity

“ ability of a test to do what it is intended to do”

         expressed as sum of-
               Sensitivity+
               Specificity+
               Reliability(reproducibility)
                     Yield


               Akhilesh Bhargava                6
Sensitivity
                           “ A test’s ability to designate an
                           individual with a disease as
                           positive”, expressed as a/(a+c)
                                      Highly sensitive
                                  • a few false negatives
                                  • fewer cases of disease
                                            missed
          Disease
Test   +ve     -ve
+ve     a       b    a+b
-ve     c       d    c+d
       a+c     b+d
                              Results depend on criteria of
                                        positivity
                              Akhilesh Bhargava                 7
Specificity
                       “ability of a test to designate an
                      individual who does not have a
                      disease as negative, expressed as
                      d / b+d .”
                              a highly specific test:
                                   - a few false positives
                                   - a fewer cases without
        Disease                     disease are included
Test   +ve -ve
+ve     a    b  a+b
-ve     c    d  c+d
       a+c b+d
                         Akhilesh Bhargava             8
Changes in specificity/sensitivity…
                   ? Ideal:
     Sensitivity 100%
     Specificity 100% (Increase in one at cost
     on other and depend on positivity criterion)

        Less stringent- sensitivity increases
           (more of actually diseased test +ve,
         no. without disease also increase)
        More strict - specificity increases
           (large no. test –ve, more no. of true cases
                   will be missed)
                Akhilesh Bhargava                   9
Conditions that ask for increase---

     Increase Sensitivity-
              Øserious diseases
              Øa definite treatment exists
              Øsubsequent diagnostic tests
               cost less
     Increase Specificity-
              Øsubsequent diagnosis costly,
               risky



              Akhilesh Bhargava          10
Reliability

“ ability to reproduce same results with
                consistency ”
    Factors:
           Biological variations
           Variation in method of testing
           Intra-observer variation
            Inter- observer variation



           Akhilesh Bhargava           11
Evaluation of a screening
     test/program

Disease’s appropriateness         Can a screening
determined                        test
Valid test available              be introduced ?

            Feasibility ?
            Effectiveness ?




              Akhilesh Bhargava               12
Feasibility
Ø Acceptability
     • Quick
     • Easy to administer-Less discomfort
Ø Cost-effectiveness
     • Total cost
     • Unit cost
     • Follow-up cost
Ø Subsequent diagnosis & treatment of +ve
Ø Yield (no. detected)
    Measure- Predictive value

             Akhilesh Bhargava              13
Predictive value of a test

“ a measure to ascertain whether or not a person
tested positive, has the disease ”
                  Disease
     Test     Present Absent
     +ve      900(a)     4950(b)     PV+ve
             (TP)        ( FP)     (TP/TP+FP)=91%
     -ve      100(c)    94050(d)       PV-ve
             ( FN )      (TN )     (TN/FN+TN)=99.9%
     Total   1000     99000
                  Sensitivity-TP/TP+F=
                  Specificity-TN/FP+TN=
                   Akhilesh Bhargava             14
Predictive value - interpretations

    Influencers- Validity-increasing specificity,
                           increases PV+ve test
                 Prevalence of pre-clinical disease
     900 4950      5850   900   1980 2880
     100 94050 94150      100    97020 97120
sens.-a/a+c=90%                            90%
speci.-d/b+d=95%                           98%
PV+ve-a/a+b=15.4%                         31.3%
PV-ve- d/c+d=99.9%                        99.9%
PV- interpretations…

Change in -prevalence    PV+ve Sensitivity Specificity
            0.1           1.8    90          95
            1.0          15.4    90          95
            5.0          48.6    90          95
           50.0          94.7    90          95

                        PV+ve can be increased by
                            -increasing specificity
                            -increasing prevalence
Effectiveness

Screening objective- To reduce morbidity/mortality
                     through
                     early detection &
                     offering treatment in
                     pre-clinical stage


To be effective-     -groups need to be comparable
                     -scrutinized for ascertainment
                      of outcome
                     -bias reduced
Bias in screening

Ø   Self-selection
Ø                                     Time
Ø   Lead time bias (identification----------------diagnosis
                  during screening               after
                                                 symptoms
Ø   Length bias- over representation of those with
                long pre-clinical phase, amongst
                screened
                (heterogeneous nature of disease,
                 prevalence dependent on duration)

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Screening in Public Health

  • 1. Screening Dr. Akhilesh Bhargava MD, DHA, PGDHRM Prof. Community Medicine & Director-SIHFW, Jaipur
  • 2. Screening “ application of a medical procedure or a test, rapidly, to people who as yet have not developed symptoms of disease for the purpose of determining their likelihood of developing of disease” . Akhilesh Bhargava 2
  • 3. Why screen Purpose: To reduce morbidity/mortality by detection at an early stage where treatment is more successful, and cost effective Assumption- “Favorable prognosis” as treatment will start before clinical manifestation and arrest the process Akhilesh Bhargava 3
  • 4. Screening criteria a disease need to satisfy: Ø Life threatening,irreversible,serious Ø Treatment at early stage to be more effective than one given after. Ø High prevalence of detectable pre- clinical stage Akhilesh Bhargava 4
  • 5. Qualities of screening test üLow cost üEasy to administer Øskills Øtechnique Øminimal discomfort ü Valid ü Reliable ü Reproducible Akhilesh Bhargava 5
  • 6. Validity “ ability of a test to do what it is intended to do” expressed as sum of- Sensitivity+ Specificity+ Reliability(reproducibility) Yield Akhilesh Bhargava 6
  • 7. Sensitivity “ A test’s ability to designate an individual with a disease as positive”, expressed as a/(a+c) Highly sensitive • a few false negatives • fewer cases of disease missed Disease Test +ve -ve +ve a b a+b -ve c d c+d a+c b+d Results depend on criteria of positivity Akhilesh Bhargava 7
  • 8. Specificity “ability of a test to designate an individual who does not have a disease as negative, expressed as d / b+d .” a highly specific test: - a few false positives - a fewer cases without Disease disease are included Test +ve -ve +ve a b a+b -ve c d c+d a+c b+d Akhilesh Bhargava 8
  • 9. Changes in specificity/sensitivity… ? Ideal: Sensitivity 100% Specificity 100% (Increase in one at cost on other and depend on positivity criterion) Less stringent- sensitivity increases (more of actually diseased test +ve, no. without disease also increase) More strict - specificity increases (large no. test –ve, more no. of true cases will be missed) Akhilesh Bhargava 9
  • 10. Conditions that ask for increase--- Increase Sensitivity- Øserious diseases Øa definite treatment exists Øsubsequent diagnostic tests cost less Increase Specificity- Øsubsequent diagnosis costly, risky Akhilesh Bhargava 10
  • 11. Reliability “ ability to reproduce same results with consistency ” Factors: Biological variations Variation in method of testing Intra-observer variation Inter- observer variation Akhilesh Bhargava 11
  • 12. Evaluation of a screening test/program Disease’s appropriateness Can a screening determined test Valid test available be introduced ? Feasibility ? Effectiveness ? Akhilesh Bhargava 12
  • 13. Feasibility Ø Acceptability • Quick • Easy to administer-Less discomfort Ø Cost-effectiveness • Total cost • Unit cost • Follow-up cost Ø Subsequent diagnosis & treatment of +ve Ø Yield (no. detected) Measure- Predictive value Akhilesh Bhargava 13
  • 14. Predictive value of a test “ a measure to ascertain whether or not a person tested positive, has the disease ” Disease Test Present Absent +ve 900(a) 4950(b) PV+ve (TP) ( FP) (TP/TP+FP)=91% -ve 100(c) 94050(d) PV-ve ( FN ) (TN ) (TN/FN+TN)=99.9% Total 1000 99000 Sensitivity-TP/TP+F= Specificity-TN/FP+TN= Akhilesh Bhargava 14
  • 15. Predictive value - interpretations Influencers- Validity-increasing specificity, increases PV+ve test Prevalence of pre-clinical disease 900 4950 5850 900 1980 2880 100 94050 94150 100 97020 97120 sens.-a/a+c=90% 90% speci.-d/b+d=95% 98% PV+ve-a/a+b=15.4% 31.3% PV-ve- d/c+d=99.9% 99.9%
  • 16. PV- interpretations… Change in -prevalence PV+ve Sensitivity Specificity 0.1 1.8 90 95 1.0 15.4 90 95 5.0 48.6 90 95 50.0 94.7 90 95 PV+ve can be increased by -increasing specificity -increasing prevalence
  • 17. Effectiveness Screening objective- To reduce morbidity/mortality through early detection & offering treatment in pre-clinical stage To be effective- -groups need to be comparable -scrutinized for ascertainment of outcome -bias reduced
  • 18. Bias in screening Ø Self-selection Ø Time Ø Lead time bias (identification----------------diagnosis during screening after symptoms Ø Length bias- over representation of those with long pre-clinical phase, amongst screened (heterogeneous nature of disease, prevalence dependent on duration)